Tiger's handicap index (and Furyk, Pernice, and J.P. Hayes)

[Makkyla]

Great article on Sandtrap.com

If you haven't seen this already, it's worth the read...I've copied just the first portion.

http://thesandtrap.com/columns/the_numbers...ces_of_the_pros

Calculating the Handicap Indeces of the Pros

Posted February 8th, 2007 by David Mosher

If Tiger Woods played you, how many strokes would he be giving up to make a fair match? The answer may shock you.

The Numbers GameYou may consider yourself a fine player with your three handicap. Or perhaps you frequently play to your 15 handicap. You may even think that Tiger Woods could spot you a stroke per hole and you'd have a close match.

And you'd be right… if you were the three handicap. And Tiger would still probably win.

We've talked about how to calculate your handicap here at The Sand Trap before, but the handicaps of our favorite PGA Tour pros remain a mystery. Sure, we know they're in the "+" realm (which, oddly enough, means better than scratch while worse-than-scratch golfers have signless handicaps), but how far?

Calculations
PGA Tour courses don't have established ratings. Pros often play from tees used only in PGA Tour events, the rough is grown extra long and thick, and greens are sped and firmed up. Each of those changes has a dramatic effect on the course rating and slope, making it difficult to ascertain the true nature of a pro's handicap index.

Normally we apply a 0.96 multiplier to a person's average differential in calculating handicaps. This is to help figure in the "potential" of a player. A golfer with an un-adjusted handicap index of 5 becomes a 4.8 index after the 0.96 multiplier is applied. It would make little sense, however, to take a plus-5 handicap to +4.8, so we must instead divide by 0.96. That would make a +5 golfer a +5.2 golfer, again figuring in the "potential."

At the Top: Tiger Woods
What does it take to be the top golfer in the world? I did a lot of number crunching and came up with this chart and these shocking figures:

Used | Date | Score | CR/Slope | Diff. | Tournament
---- ---- ----- -------- ----- ----------
* | 01/28/07 | 66 | 78.1/143 | 15.3 | Buick Invitational
* | 01/27/07 | 69 | 78.1/143 | 11.5 | Buick Invitational
| 01/26/07 | 72 | 78.1/143 | 7.7 | Buick Invitational
| 01/25/07 | 66 | 78.1/143 | 8.3 | Buick Invitational
* | 09/04/06 | 63 | 74.8/143 | 14.9 | Deutsche Bank
* | 09/03/06 | 67 | 74.8/143 | 9.9 | Deutsche Bank
| 09/02/06 | 72 | 74.8/143 | 3.5 | Deutsche Bank
* | 09/01/06 | 66 | 74.8/143 | 11.1 | Deutsche Bank
| 08/27/06 | 68 | 75.1/128 | 8.0 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.
| 08/26/06 | 71 | 75.1/128 | 4.6 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.
* | 08/25/06 | 64 | 75.1/128 | 12.6 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.
| 08/24/06 | 67 | 75.1/128 | 9.2 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.
* | 08/20/06 | 68 | 78.1/151 | 13.5 | PGA Championship
* | 08/19/06 | 65 | 78.1/151 | 17.5 | PGA Championship
* | 08/18/06 | 68 | 78.1/151 | 13.5 | PGA Championship
* | 08/17/06 | 69 | 78.1/151 | 12.2 | PGA Championship
| 08/06/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | 9.8 | Buick Open
| 08/05/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | 9.8 | Buick Open
| 08/04/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | 9.8 | Buick Open
| 08/03/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | 9.8 | Buick Open
---- -------- ----- -------- ----- ----------
Average Differential: 10.6
Best 10 Average Differential: 13.2
Handicap Index: +13.75

Now, take a deep breath and read that again. +13.75. Tiger's worst ten differentials average out to +8.05.

Something like 10% of golfers ever reach single digit handicaps. Tiger's not only done that (while still in the womb, no doubt), but he's blown through the single digits on the other side of scratch and is in heretofore unexplored territory at +13.75. That may be the single best handicap index ever!

[xal951]

thats insane. +13....wow. im sure i speak for everyone here, but ive always wondered what tiger would shoot at my home course. I figured it out, every par 5 in 2, drive a few par 4s. i know he would be atleast 18 under. here i am shooting a few under everytime and tiger would go atleast 18 under..pure talent.

 

Well if u look at it he had a 68.11 scoring average last season. Thats close to a +4 handicap usually, but factor in the insane courses and conditions they play, i can see it being atleast +10. Good stuff

[gregflat9]

I saw that article... sent it to a guy at work... he came back "we'd all be off plus eight if we had 20,000 people to find our balls for us" !!!

[wwhitehead]

I would like to know if Tiger ever goes to munis and tries to shoot 57- that would be something to watch.

 

However, I do have a small issue with this only because it seems to me that the courses that he plays, while harder than the ones we play, are also possibly more condusive to scoring when you're on the ball.

 

It seems like playing at carlsbad muni, he'd hit lots of greens and miss lots of putts because the greens are so bad and whatnot. Maybe the perfect conditions he plays help him in other ways?

 

This brings up an interesting question/issue.

 

Which is harder: a longer golf course in perfect condition, or a shorter track in terrible shape?

 

WW

[TourPro]

thats insane. +13....wow. im sure i speak for everyone here, but ive always wondered what tiger would shoot at my home course. I figured it out, every par 5 in 2, drive a few par 4s. i know he would be atleast 18 under. here i am shooting a few under everytime and tiger would go atleast 18 under..pure talent.

 

Well if u look at it he had a 68.11 scoring average last season. Thats close to a +4 handicap usually, but factor in the insane courses and conditions they play, i can see it being atleast +10. Good stuff

 

68 is going to be lower than +4. The last year I kept mine it was +5.7 and my scoring average was a touch under 69. My home course rating was 74.6 which is considerably less difficult than tournament courses.

[3puttbogey]

I saw that article... sent it to a guy at work... he came back "we'd all be off plus eight if we had 20,000 people to find our balls for us" !!!

 

 

Hell I get nervous if there's a groundskeeper watching me. If 20,000 people were watching me I would need all of them to help me find my ball. And if they ever got as close to me as they do for Tiger when they are in front of him, there would be numerous visits to the hospitable. I would never trust someone hitting out of the rough to be 30 yards in front and maybe 5 yards to their right.

[Omen]

I agree tiger shoots these great numbers on courses in these conditions... he would probably have a hard time playing the local muni and most likely wouldn't go any lower than he does now...

 

without perfect greens it's hard to make a 10 footer...his game tee to green wont change any at the muni but he wont be making very many putts. I would venture to say that tiger would have a tough time shooting a 68 at a local muni in it's everyday condition....it doesnt matter how well he drives it or if he hits every green in regulation if those putts dont drop its par...and think of how many times he makes those clutch 6 foot par saves....wont happen as often on a muni green...not mine anyway...

 

I have played on some very nice private courses that only have a few "SELECT" members and the greens were impeccable....I didn't shoot a much lower score but thats because i had to learn the speed...there's a huge difference between the munis 7-8 on the stimp vs. augustas 12 or so.....even that private i was at was rolling 10-11 on the stimp...it was amazing how true the ball rolled...if i would have stayed there long enough to learn the speed then i would be a better golfer than i am today. In fact when i left and went to baltimore the first 5 rounds or so i left 90 % of my putts SHORT, just couldnt get the ball to the hole.

 

I bet on the local muni Tiger wouldn't get many putts to the hole.

 

you watch the pros and they hate downhill putts because it's difficult to get it close if you miss....got that 5-6 footer for par coming back, but on the muni, you can leave those downhill things short. so i would say that tiger would do much worse on a muni.

 

another thing muni's have longer grass on the green which means the grain is going to affect the putt that much more. of course if one of us were to go to a pro course we could tack on another 5-10 strokes just because we wouldn't know how much break to play or the speed control, and we wouldnt have a caddy telling us where to leave our approach, for those of you on here good enough to even take advantage of that info should if even be available.

 

Could i beat tiger at my local spot now...sure could...it would have to be on the number 7 tee box so that the clubhouse couldn't see us and i would need someone to shoot stevie while i broke tiger's arm but i could beat him.

[mcbush25]

I couldn't even fathom being anywhere near a plus handicap so I wouldn't know what a +13.75 would be like. I don't argue it though as the courses are tougher, longer, and there are plenty more people watchin him than they are any of us when we are on the course.

[AcesAZ]

The guy made a mistake!!!! He corrected the numbers.

 

Tiger is only +8.5, It seems the guy made a mistake when figuring out the indexes and he corrected them. In fact the guys barely making it on tour are +4's. Keep in mind though that these are tournaments and in tournament conditions. I'm sure they'd all be a couple shots lower if they played the same course every day like some of us.

 

 

 

 

At the Top: Tiger Woods

What does it take to be the top golfer in the world? I did a lot of number crunching and came up with this chart and these shocking figures:

 

Used | Date | Score | CR/Slope | Diff. | Tournament

---- ---- ----- -------- ----- ----------

* | 01/28/07 | 66 | 78.1/143 | -9.6 | Buick Invitational

* | 01/27/07 | 69 | 78.1/143 | -7.2 | Buick Invitational

| 01/26/07 | 72 | 78.1/143 | -4.8 | Buick Invitational

| 01/25/07 | 66 | 78.1/143 | -6.3 | Buick Invitational

* | 09/04/06 | 63 | 74.8/143 | -9.3 | Deutsche Bank

| 09/03/06 | 67 | 74.8/143 | -6.2 | Deutsche Bank

| 09/02/06 | 72 | 74.8/143 | -2.2 | Deutsche Bank

| 09/01/06 | 66 | 74.8/143 | -7.0 | Deutsche Bank

| 08/27/06 | 68 | 75.1/128 | -6.3 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.

| 08/26/06 | 71 | 75.1/128 | -3.6 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.

* | 08/25/06 | 64 | 75.1/128 | -9.8 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.

* | 08/24/06 | 67 | 75.1/128 | -7.2 | WGC - Bridgestone Inv.

* | 08/20/06 | 68 | 78.1/151 | -7.6 | PGA Championship

* | 08/19/06 | 65 | 78.1/151 | -9.8 | PGA Championship

* | 08/18/06 | 68 | 78.1/151 | -7.6 | PGA Championship

| 08/17/06 | 69 | 78.1/151 | -6.8 | PGA Championship

* | 08/06/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | -7.1 | Buick Open

* | 08/05/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | -7.1 | Buick Open

| 08/04/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | -7.1 | Buick Open

| 08/03/06 | 66 | 74.3/133 | -7.1 | Buick Open

---- -------- ----- -------- ----- ----------

Average Differential: -7.0

Best 10 Average Differential: -8.2

Handicap Index: +8.5Now, take a deep breath and read that again. +8.5. Tiger's worst ten differentials average out to -5.7.

 

Something like 10% of golfers ever reach single digit handicaps. Tiger's not only done that (while still in the womb, no doubt), but he's blown through the single digits on the other side of scratch and is in heretofore unexplored territory at +8.5. That may be the single best handicap index ever!

[edwelly]

I got to work the Senior PGA Championship a couple years ago when it was at Valhalla. I could not believe the shape the course was in. I am serious when I say this - the fairways were nicer than my carpet and I have nice carpet. The greens were impeccable.

Now I am taking nothing away from Tiger and I sure he could shoot 60 on my crappy home course, but I do think I could go lower if my course was in tip top shape.

[PlayerJason]

My local muni is in horrible shape as well mainly because the greens have more dimples than my ex girlfriend's a**. Sure, the dormant Bermuda doesn't help but it's the greens that have the biggest impact.

 

When you hit a 15 foot uphill putt and it goes airborne 12 inches thanks to an unrepaired ball mark or unmaintained surface, it makes a huge difference.

[raidernut1234]

Why do you think Tiger skips the AT&T at Pebble Beach?? BUMPY GREENS. you should have heard these prima donnas complaining about the greens last thursday and friday. funniest comment? "that putt bounced more than the harlem globetrotters." you putt and practice on glass everyday and see how many putts you make. smooth greens are the key to shooting low scores.

[Omen]

you cant go low if putts dont drop...it doesnt matter how well you read the putt: if there is an unrepaired spot on the line you stand little to no chance of making the putt.

 

tiger wont play on less than pristine greens....thats why i want to make it to the tour, and the money is a nice incentive as welll....now to just drop 8 strokes off my stroke average..

[PlayerJason]

"now to just drop 8 strokes off my stroke average.."

 

You can do that by the end of the year. Set your goals, PUT THEM IN WRITING and make it happen. Those 8 strokes will be gone in no time. I say you start planning now for either a mini-tour appearance or Monday qualifier.

 

Let us know how it goes!

[chap411]

"have a tough time shooting a 68 at a local muni in it's everyday condition"

Unless this Muni is a par 80, or Tiger is playing lefthanded, or with just a 7 iron, your are totally wrong. How long is the average Muni? Less than 6500 from the tips. Tiger would be hitting 2 iron or 3 wood then wedge into par 4s and short irons onto par 3, I don't even need to say anything about the par 5s, What I am trying to say is that with Tiger hiting wedges into greens, he probably wouldn't even need to carry a putter. A 3 footer is pretty easy no matter how bad the greens are.

[stp]

he would have a very difficult time at "Carlsbad muni" as it does not exist yet. (cool)

[Omen]

Mine is 7100+...so on mine he would have a hard time and those 3 footers would have have him swearing in no time: since the local yokels have a tendency to drag their feet and pivot on them around the hole..... sometimes i consider trying to chip in my 3 footers as opposed to putting through the ruts left by others.

 

remember you cant tap down spike marks...ask jack nickalus how he feels about that rule: lol

 

shoot...I am going to devot this whole year to getting my stroke average down to 72-73.....if i can do that I will definitely throw down 400 bucks for a monday qualifier and hope to put together a miracle round...it would be a great treat to get smacked around a golf course by a pga pro in a tourney...it would be a dream come true to make the weekend and a fantasy lived to have a top 25 finish.

 

but i seriosly intend on puting in 3 hours a day to practice, lots of putting green time and lots of pitching and chipping: it will start as soon as the ice melts here: already sat down with my local pro and set up some preliminary fittings and check on the computer to get the numbers where they need to be.... keep my fingers crossed and my mind focused: buy a golfwrx putter cover with 4 leaf clovers all over it and who knows one day i may get lucky and win a monday qualifier.

[jjc2257]

Pristine conditions are conducive to better scoring, that goes without saying. This being said I have no doubt that Tiger would not have a problem shooting 8-10 under most rounds on our "average" courses, however I really dont see hom shooting 55's and the like. Sure Tiger is deadly with his wedge but he doesnt jelly it to 3 feet every time. He makes alot of putts over 10' for birdies and par saves that are going to be alot more difficult on the average conditions that we play under. Not to mention the inconsistencies of the bunkers and fringe cuts etc. Just my .02.

[joesgonegolfing]

My home Course from the TIPS is 7000 and slopes at 135/73.2. It has that rating I think primarily based on the length of its Par 4's. The par 3's all play 180 and under, and the Par 5's are all reachable (Tiger) save the last for the biggest hitters. The low handicaps in my group get home on 2 of the 4 par fives, the other two are just too long for most players that are not touring professionals.

 

That being said, the length of the Par 4's is a non issue for Tiger and the fairways are wide/fast. He could spot me 8 and smoke my 72-76 score.

 

Joe

[threeputter]

I don't know. I was lucky enough to play in a practice round with a Nationwide guy at my local course a few years back. He'd never been on the course so I basically helped him around. It was at a semi-private course so the shape was better then the average muni and obviously it was set for the play in tourney they were starting the next day. But this course is a little over 7000 from the tips and very narrow with dog legs on every hole. He shot par that day, and he wasn't a real long hitter (around 300 at most). The thing that impressed me the most was he hit 12 out of 14 fairways and the two he missed were first cut. He then was deadly with the wedge. Putting was average at best and probably why he was on the Nationwide. The greens are always fast but so are that at any course set for a pro tourney.

 

That said, I'd have to believe tiger never takes a driver out on this course and shoots mid 60's at worst. Even on a bad and swappy spring day before things dry out. The course is a 142 slope from the back and a 74.3 rating.

[silver_truck]

on a bit of a different note, are your guy's local courses really that terrible? I mean we deal with tons of rain, freezing in the winters, punched and sanded greens all spring and they still don't bounce that much. Maybe people around here just take better care of the courses but even the cheap 9 hole course around here is almost always in very good shape, reasonable greens, smooth slow but still rollable. The sand around here is a different story though with golfball sized rocks. I have no doubt that Tiger could come out to %75 of the courses around here and hit half the greens in 1 and 95% of the greens in 2 and shoot 55

[dachtor]

When I was a senior in college at UGA Phil Mickelson come to play and practice with some of the guys on the golf team. He had just missed the cut in the players championship and was on his way to the Bellsouth Classi. I guess his Caddy lived in Athens so they were staying at his place for a few days. Anyway, my roommate was on the golf team at Georgia so we went to the course a few days in a row to watch. I witnessed some facinating things those few days but surprisingly Bubba Watson, Nick Cassini, and Erik Compton all beat him both days. He shot 74, 73 or something like that. Later that week he went on to win the Bellsouth Classic.

 

I don't as much believe that Tiger or Phil would shoot 18 under (or even 12 under) at my home course on a reglar basis but I do think that all of our hadicaps would be much worse if we played on the courses they play on.....

[TexasAg]

It would make little sense, however, to take a plus-5 handicap to +4.8, so we must instead divide by 0.96. That would make a +5 golfer a +5.2 golfer, again figuring in the "potential."

 

I understand the logic behind this, but I'm not sure it's actually correct. I think that in fact a +5 does indeed become a +4.8. It doesn't make much sense, but that's my understanding of how the rules work.

[sync71]

That is a crazy low handicap for Tiger..I can only dream of getting mine that low. As far as Tiger playing my home course I'd have to say low 60s. Because the course is far from amazing shape now if it was set up like a course on the tour I think he'd be able to shoot mid to high 50s on it.

[oregongolf]

That's just amazing.

 

I've always wondered how low he would go at my home course. I'm sure he'd shoot some crazy EA Sports PGA Tour Tiger Woods 07 scores or something. I'd give him at least 54.