Most Likely Score?

[HatsForBats]

> @Roadking2003 said:

> > @HatsForBats said:

> > Nope, the rules do not require you to assume a 2 putt for all six holes. The rules want you to evaluate each hole independently. If you were playing with me and said you make 49% from 6-feet

>

> But NOBODY outside of the tours knows what their make percentages are, much less their make percentages for breaking putts of 12 inches vs breaking putts of 2 inches.

>

> And even the Tours don't compute make percentages for breaking putts vs straight putts.

 

A most likely score is the number of strokes already taken, plus **in the player's best judgment**, the number of strokes needed to complete the hole from that point more than half the time.

 

In all of my years playing I don't think I ever recall a player that added more strokes than I think they should have. Many more times than I can count or remember they have added **less** strokes than I thought they should.

[DaveLeeNC]

FWIW, I had a conversation with a Carolina's Golf Association guy who was my handicap interface (this was in 2013). The specific case was 3 conceded 4 footers where you know that your probability of making a 4 foot putt of this nature is 60%. The question was when you post do you assume that you made all 3 putts (which is not the most likely outcome across the entire round of golf).

 

His response was specifically "I would not take all 3 of them". It is interesting that this is what he would do and also he did NOT say that this is what the rules say (which is how he normally presented answers to such questions).

 

dave

[davep043]

> @DaveLeeNC said:

> FWIW, I had a conversation with a Carolina's Golf Association guy who was my handicap interface (this was in 2013). The specific case was 3 conceded 4 footers where you know that your probability of making a 4 foot putt of this nature is 60%. The question was when you post do you assume that you made all 3 putts (which is not the most likely outcome across the entire round of golf).

>

> His response was specifically "I would not take all 3 of them". It is interesting that this is what he would do and also he did NOT say that this is what the rules say (which is how he normally presented answers to such questions).

>

> dave

 

I believe that there is a bit of human nature involved here. We write scores down as we play, not all at the end of the round. If I've recorded what seems like a 60/40 opportunity as a 1-putt a couple of times already, I may take the next one as a 2-putt if I'm faced with a third concession from a similar distance. I'm not sure I'd be specifically thinking about "balancing" my score, but that would be my subconscious reasoning. Most of us want out score to reflect the way we play that day.

[DaveLeeNC]

Along similar lines I had an interesting scenario a number of years ago. I was in a casual foursome on the 13th tee (we were a four person team playing against other teams). Two of us hit our drives and then this big lightning flash and thunderclap occurred. That was it for us for the day. So two of us had to post an 18 hole score (5 holes unplayed as par plus strokes and one 'most likely score' hole) as we had 'completed' 13 holes (a most likely score hole is a completed hole per the handicap system and I verified that with the USGA). Two of us had to post a 9 hole score.

 

Our European (and other) friends must be shaking their heads at such scoring shenanigans.

 

dave

[Roadking2003]

> @davep043 said:

> > @DaveLeeNC said:

> > FWIW, I had a conversation with a Carolina's Golf Association guy who was my handicap interface (this was in 2013). The specific case was 3 conceded 4 footers where you know that your probability of making a 4 foot putt of this nature is 60%. The question was when you post do you assume that you made all 3 putts (which is not the most likely outcome across the entire round of golf).

> >

> > His response was specifically "I would not take all 3 of them". It is interesting that this is what he would do and also he did NOT say that this is what the rules say (which is how he normally presented answers to such questions).

> >

> > dave

>

> I believe that there is a bit of human nature involved here. We write scores down as we play, not all at the end of the round. If I've recorded what seems like a 60/40 opportunity as a 1-putt a couple of times already, I may take the next one as a 2-putt if I'm faced with a third concession from a similar distance. I'm not sure I'd be specifically thinking about "balancing" my score, but that would be my subconscious reasoning. Most of us want out score to reflect the way we play that day.

 

I think that's what most of us do regardless of what the USGA says we should do.