Calculating breaks on putts

[Curmudg3on]

9 hours ago, jda said:

I am joking, but has anybody asked one of the AI engines how much a 15 foot putt with 2 degrees of slope will break?

 

I wrote software for years, worked at Google where we could collect more data for tests and analysis at lunch than most companies have a in a year and we had computers the size of a WalMart buildings.  All of this said, none of them can do what each of our brains can do by looking at a putt for a second.  This is a 4d calculation by the time that you factor in time with the putt losing, or gaining speed.  Even the people who are good at it just seem to know and they cannot explain what happened in their brain.

 

From: GPT-4:

 

Predicting the exact break of a putt is a complex task that depends on various factors, including the speed of the green, grass type, and specific conditions on the day of play. Additionally, the break of a putt can vary depending on how the ball is struck, the type of ball used, and the golfer's technique.

Generally, professional golfers and caddies rely on experience, knowledge of the course, and a keen eye to read the green and estimate the break. They might also use tools like green-reading books or specialized devices to assist them in making more accurate judgments.

The two degrees of slope you mentioned might have some influence, but other factors play a more significant role in determining the break. For a 15-foot putt, even a small amount of slope can cause the ball to curve noticeably, but without more information about the specific course, green conditions, and other factors, it's challenging to give an exact estimation of how much the putt will break.

If you're playing golf, the best approach is to rely on your own judgment, experience, and observation of the green's contours during practice rounds or before taking your shot. Remember, putting is an art and skill that improves with practice and experience.

 

 

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by Curmudg3on

[Soloman1]

GPT-4 seems to have missed the calculations done with formulas derived a long, long time ago by people who didn't have computers the size of Walmarts and still used to calculate breaks today for TV graphics when laser measurements of greens are available.

[sheppick.dan]

Z1ggy16 how goes the experiment?

[TonyRo]

Very similar charts exist in Ralph Bauer's TourRead Golf App, but his system also boils them down to a fairly accurate equation that makes it quite easy to calculate aimpoints - it's a very simple equation that takes stimp, sideslope, downslope, and putt distance and spits out an aimpoint from the center of the cup. This requires side slope to be felt along the putt a la Aimpoint and does not use the clock analogy super-imposed over a planar green, which is a headache.

 

I love when people come into threads like this going, "be an athlete", etc. Tons of the best athletes in the game use stuff like AimPoint and TourRead, and they're making a hell of a lot more putts than anyone on this forum, me definitely included. You will putt better and be more confident if your reads are accurate, and could argue that getting an exact read that you're confident in allows you to stop thinking about it over the ball and be the athlete after. Lee Hodges just putted lights out at the highest level doing basically exactly this. Golf is evolving, people want to score better. If it doesn't help you score better, that's okay. Or maybe you're not doing it right! 😁

[Z1ggy16]

On 8/9/2023 at 12:01 AM, sheppick.dan said:

Z1ggy16 how goes the experiment?

Haven't had time to create a full matrix/table yet - focusing on other things, only so many hours in the day.

[sheppick.dan]

2 minutes ago, Z1ggy16 said:

Haven't had time to create a full matrix/table yet - focusing on other things, only so many hours in the day.

I hear you on that one!

[Z1ggy16]

I made this quickly this morning, and I'm going to try and reference it when possible today during my round. Im assuming my course has greens around 8, and I used the 'uphill' & 'downhill' stimp numbers into the formula from AimPoint. Probably not perfectly correct but it's going to be close enough. The calculated numbers are inches of break per foot.

 

[Z1ggy16]

Too complicated/tedious to use a greens book and my phone with the table. The table needs to be in the book.... I defaulted to just using my phone and feeling the putt with my feet/eyes. 

[kthomas]

I don't see the point.

 

You're not going to take measurements and perform math on the greens.

 

Play how you practice and practice how you play.

[jda]

It can work in the same vein as getting a Jail Bird, switching from a mallet to a blade or blade to a mallet.  The focus and deliberate approach can show gains that might not otherwise be present.  If the chart is nails, then it could help even more.

[Giocatore4]

On 7/27/2023 at 2:24 PM, Z1ggy16 said:

Not sure I get your point. What's athleticism and reading putts got to do with one another?

 

 

On 7/29/2023 at 10:31 AM, puttingmatt said:

Exactly, and how hard the ball is hit, is the difference between ball taking intended break, and ball rolling through break. 

This.  There are many ways to make the same putt.

[wings02]

Math is a wonderful tool to solve many problems.  The true  HOLY GRAIL of putting is revealed in the book, Miracle on the 17th green by James Patterson. A must read for any golfer!

[sheppick.dan]

On 7/27/2023 at 9:48 AM, Z1ggy16 said:

PSA - If you aren't interested in actually discussing this, that's fine with me... but don't waste your time commenting "don't over think it", etc.

 

I like to use aim point but I'm trying to develop a table or chart I can put in my yardage book to reference for determining how much break to play on putts.

 

I will post a photo below this to illustrate but essentially I'm trying to figure out, on putts that are not exactly right angles to the break line, how does one factor in the amount of break to add or take away, because when you're at an angle to that point, you're slightly up or downhill now and the effective stimp will change, causing more or less break.

 

For example, using a clock as a reference, you've got a putt at 6 o'clock that's on a 3% slope, from 10ft away, on a 10 stimp green. Math says that breaks 15" (see photo). Of course from 3 o'clock your putt breaks 0 inches because it is fully uphill, so you need to hit it harder because the effective stimp is now lower (7.2 to be exact). 

 

My question is... How much break do you now play from 7:30 and 4:30 (exactly 45* from full break and 0 break)? I'm specifically looking for how to do this mathematically because I'm making a large table in excel. 

 

My thought was divide slope by √2 of your at 4:30/1:30 or multiply by √2 if you're at 7:30/10:30 but that does not feel correct.

 

Any thoughts? @joostinyou're smart and love diving into details.... Help me ☺️

 

 

 

Did you see this article that just came out? Looks like someone created a baseline already... 

 

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/tour-read-putting-app-ralph-bauer-how-it-works-green-reading?utm_medium=email&utm_source=090623&utm_campaign=newsandtours&utm_content=DM43601&uuid=c9a13d8e94bf45c9be1b4288048959d8

[TonyRo]

This is the system I posted about in this same thread on 8/9 - very interesting and helpful if it's something you're willing to mess with on greens.

[Fwitz11]

On 7/31/2023 at 7:00 PM, Curmudg3on said:

 

From: GPT-4:

 

Predicting the exact break of a putt is a complex task that depends on various factors, including the speed of the green, grass type, and specific conditions on the day of play. Additionally, the break of a putt can vary depending on how the ball is struck, the type of ball used, and the golfer's technique.

Generally, professional golfers and caddies rely on experience, knowledge of the course, and a keen eye to read the green and estimate the break. They might also use tools like green-reading books or specialized devices to assist them in making more accurate judgments.

The two degrees of slope you mentioned might have some influence, but other factors play a more significant role in determining the break. For a 15-foot putt, even a small amount of slope can cause the ball to curve noticeably, but without more information about the specific course, green conditions, and other factors, it's challenging to give an exact estimation of how much the putt will break.

If you're playing golf, the best approach is to rely on your own judgment, experience, and observation of the green's contours during practice rounds or before taking your shot. Remember, putting is an art and skill that improves with practice and experience.

 

 

 

Such an interesting response that seems to align with what all of us are saying. It’s a feel/experience thing and not something technology can perfectly replicate.

[nosil]

12 hours ago, Fwitz11 said:

Such an interesting response that seems to align with what all of us are saying. It’s a feel/experience thing and not something technology can perfectly replicate.

 

AI responses are generally BS in my opinion as they only provide information from the input that has been fed to them….but that is not the point.   

you can definitely determine break by feel/experience.  I’ll define Experience as:  based on what I have seen in the past, I believe this putt will break this much.  We build a library in our mind and try to match the current putt to the one in front of us.   Kind of formula based if you ask me.
 

Aimpoint, Tour read, math formulas, the chart being built in this thread are all based on math and physics.   You should agree that if I have an incline plane and roll balls across that plane at the same speed from point A the ball will end at point B consistently.  This is simply how gravity and friction work.   Because of this I can build a mathematical formula that predicts where the ball will roll.   Essentially these systems package the experience for you.   
 

since we as humans are not perfect, we can’t roll the ball at the same speed every time and the green (incline plane) isn’t a perfect surface the exact formula can’t be determined every time so we miss putts.   Our feel and experience isn’t perfect either, which is why we don’t make every putt.   

while you may choose not to use charts and formulas, they are extremely accurate for predicting break on surfaces.   If you really want to dig into the math and physics I would suggest ou read H. A. Templeton’s vector putting.book.  There are also YouTube videos that show vector putting and the prediction of break using formulas.  

Edited September 12, 2023 by nosil

[RDP727]

@Z1ggy16 I can't help you with the math formula but there is a putting app that might be able to help you verify if your calculations are accurate - it's called the 'Tour Read Golf' app.

 

When you're on the practice green or putting in a practice round you place your phone down about 2/3's of the way between the ball and hole and the phone will calculate the degree of slope and incline/decline of the putt. Based on that info, the length of the putt, and speed of the greens, it will tell you exactly how far out you need to aim to make the putt. The cool feature the app has that might help with verifying your calculations is that there's a training section where it shows you all the green info for the putt and you have to try to figure out how far out you would need to aim to make the putt. I think the free trial is a week before you have to start paying for it.

 

Also, if you do end up making a table/chart that works well for you I'd love to check it out and try it if you don't mind. Hope this helps you in someway since I'm useless on the math calculations side.

 

YouTube link: 

 

-RDP