Most Likely First-Time Major Winners in 2007

[[email protected]]

We're predictions fanatics at The Sand Trap, and this week's installment of the Trap Five underscores this compulsion. It has been an exciting start to the season for young talent. Charley Hoffman, Aaron Baddeley, Charles Howell III, and Henrik Stenson have all, as relatively young players, won on the PGA Tour. While the number of Americans (outside of Woods, Mickelson, and Furyk) is lacking, there are plenty of current European and Australian players making history on the PGA Tour.

 

 

Besides the usual suspects vying for another slice of history there are some viable candidates for first-time major championship winners in 2007. The year has already showcased a few talented young players and odds are good that this trend will continue. Perhaps there is a Tiger-slayer in training we aren't aware of. Perhaps one of the candidates for first time major winner below will be the one to take a title from him. Let's take a look…

 

 

Number Five: Luke Donald

Donald hasn't gotten off to a tremendous start in 2007. His seventh-place finish at the Mercedes-Benz Championship and T2 at the Sony Open were sullied by two missed cuts and a couple more mediocre finishes.

 

 

There is some question in my mind whether a player who hits the ball some thirty yards shorter on average off the tee can win a major against a field packed with bombers. But, if any short-knocker can do it, it's Luke Donald. Erik J. Barzeski and I, in the Golf Talk Podcast, have given him some grief for playing "Luke Donald Golf" but I think that's just the attitude he may need to win a big one. He should get out there and play his game and like DiMarco has been known to do, hit his long irons inside someone else's wedges.

 

 

Donald is 154th in driving distance in 2007 at 275.6 yards but is 7th in driving accuracy, hitting 73.03% of fairways. His driving accuracy gives him a distinct advantage at the U.S. Open where hitting fairways is a premium. In fact any one of the majors, apart from maybe the Masters, he's got a pretty good chance of playing well.

 

 

I am hopeful for Luke Donald in the major department. He has a load of desire and wants to snag a major as bad as anyone on Tour. That fire and his straight-shooting ways stand him in good stead to win a major by the end of the season.

 

 

Number Four: Robert Allenby

A forum member was quick to point out Allenby as a possible first-timer. After giving it some thought I think I agree. Allenby is a long hitter, currently averaging over 300 yards, and his putting has been good this year. He has five top-tens in six starts which means this could be his year.

 

 

Allenby is second in scoring average at 68.56 per round. The short story is that he's been on a tear since the 2007 season began.

 

 

He is no stranger to the winner's circle and probably has sufficient confidence to play well in, say, the Masters. He has the length to tame Augusta and could very well get it done there very soon. He seems to possess many of the qualities of a major winner. Maybe just tightening up his short game a bit (like we should all do) would mean he'd win a major the next time he played in one.

 

 

Number Three: Charles Howell III

I have to admit I didn't have much hope for either Howell III or any American for that matter to win a major this season but Howell III's strong play (plus the opinion of a few of our forum members) opened my eyes.

 

 

Five top-10 finishes including a victory at the Nissan Open in seven events is really good for Chuckie Three Sticks. He currently is at the top of the FedExCup points standings by a fair margin. While only one win stands between him and a handful of players he's earned his early success.

 

 

While there were five long years between his first and second wins on the PGA Tour I got a hunch it won't be as long next time. It takes players (not named Tiger Woods) a while to learn how to hold a lead out there and Howell III is coming into his own. He's back with Leadbetter after what was probably a beneficial time away from his long-time teacher. While I don't think a Masters is in the cards this time around, there are three other events that he could snag if he strung some good putting together into the weekend.

 

 

Number Two: Adam Scott

No surprises here. Scott has been knocking on the door for a while. The only thing I doubt are his choice of hair styling and his desire. He has the closest swing to Tiger Woods than you'll find on the PGA Tour but is still searching for the desire.

 

 

Quite honestly, I think he has plenty of desire but he does need to learn how to put his foot on the accelerator when he has a lead on the weekend.

 

 

He's won The Players Championship and The Tour Championship so he knows how to win with lots of big names in the mix. It may be only a case of solid play for four days and a few lucky bounces to vault Scott into the major-winner's circle.

 

 

After all, you don't get to be number four in the world by being a slouch.

 

 

Number One: Henrik Stenson

This is an easy pick for me. Swedish European PGA Tour player Henrik Stenson stood out to me last year for his solid play, buttery swing, and calm demeanor. He has fought through swing changes in recent years but has come out the other end in pretty good shape.

 

 

Stenson is first on the European Tour's Order of Merit and with only five starts has two victories and three more top-10's to his credit. He's played one event on the PGA Tour and won it. Talk about a cherry-picker! It took nerves to stare down U.S. Open champ Geoff Ogilvy at the Accenture Match Play Championship. Stenson didn't flinch winning 2 and 1 in the 36 hole final.

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Stenson win a couple of majors in the next five years and a win this year wouldn't surprise me either. He's been playing very well during the last twelve months.

 

 

Photo Credit: © Jeff J. Mitchell/Reuters, © Nick Wass, AP, © Augusta.Com, © Sign On SanDiego, © Callaway Golf .com.

[3whacker]

just off the top of my head : Harrington, Garcia, and maybe Paul Casey or David Howell... and i'm not even a Euro

[greencarlito]

I don't see why everyone thinks so highly of Luke Donald, he won't be winning a major until he can do something other than hit the centre of every green IMO. The Aussies have the cut throat mentality that the Brits lack (just look at rugby, cricket, etc..) which is why I see Appleby, Allenby and, to a lesser extent, Scott as more likely winners

[InspiredGolf]

1) Garcia

2) Stenson

3) Howell III

4) Rollins

5) Chad Campbell

[bloodredsun]

1./ Stenson

2./ Casey

3./ Immelman

4./ Donald

5./ Scott

 

Stenson and Casey are the most obvious ones in my view as they are both massive hitters but with the short game and the winners mentality. Immelman and Donald are the shorter, more precise type that should show strongly at the US while Scott has been there or there abouts for a few years.

 

I wish the I could pick Sergio but I seem to remember that his Sunday rounds are statistically very poor compared to the previous 3 days play in majors. That and his misfiring Sunday putting makes him a no go. Considering how talented he is and how well he has played over the last decade and how great he is in Ryder cups it's a real pity.

 

If I could have a dark horse I would go for Monty too. I still think (and really wish) that he has the game for a major.

[ckay]

I agree with Scott, Howell, and Stenson. Personally, I'm thinking Sergio and Casey. Lukie has nothing special about his game.

[Clugnut]

I will have to vote for Stenson as well. Very solid game, seems to be a nice guy too.

[mikpga]

Stenson would be a good pick...

 

 

 

CHIII might be a decent pick...

 

 

 

Brett Wetterich would be a long shot, but I believe has a chance...

[toddnt]

Charlie III Stix

[villa]

I don't see why everyone thinks so highly of Luke Donald, he won't be winning a major until he can do something other than hit the centre of every green IMO. The Aussies have the cut throat mentality that the Brits lack (just look at rugby, cricket, etc..) which is why I see Appleby, Allenby and, to a lesser extent, Scott as more likely winners

 

Maybe Greg Norman should've remembered that when Nick Faldo was 6 shots back!

 

Don't get me started on the Rugby World Cup.

 

However I still don't think Donald can win one at them moment. Harrington is a grinder so I still fancy him at the U.S open. Paul Casey, Henrik Stenson and CHIII are decent bets.

[uga_fan]

In no particular order:

1. Stenson

2. Harrington

3. Immelman

4. Campbell

5. Howell III

[nikeguy]

Trevor Immelman is a small guy who is a BIG HITTER...The kid has length and the game. :potofgold:

 

Henrik Stenson

Paul Casey

Chad Campbell

Charles Howell III

Trevor Immelman

Padriag Harrington

[jimb]

It just might be Stenson. But I am rooting for Howell III. He is just such a gentleman. The only thing that could stop him is Howell III or Tiger. There is just so much pressure he puts on himself. He is such a talent and he wants it so bad. If he does it that first time watch out.

[bapfu]

i'm going with sergio and adam scott on this one

[Goldenhawk]

Charles Howell III or Adam Scott. But Tiger Woods may make it difficult for anyone to win a major.

 

Sergio Garcia can't putt on Sunday, so he's out. But if he's in the lead on Sunday, he may pull a Greg Norman Masters type collapse. Now that would be interesting.

[sprtsfrek21]

1. Henrik Stenson- He's got the best chance of all the non major winners. I think he'll win at Oakmont, just a feeling.

 

2. Chris DiMarco- He's way too good to still not be able to win a major. If his putter is hot, he can win.

 

3. Charles Howell III- Very impressed with his play lately. If he doesn't win the masters, it'll be one of the very top players or Vaughn Taylor.

 

4. Justin Rose- Call me crazy, but I say his first win is a major. Justin's great play lately has been awesome. But he hasn't been able to cap off a victory, he will at a major in my opinion.

 

 

These are my four major winners if they aren't Tiger, Phil, Vijay, or any one of those top dogs.

[NicoDK]

CH3, Baddeley or Villegas

 

But i'm hoping that Phil or Tiger takes it, if none above can

[jkim37]

KJ Choi!!!!!!!!!!

[joe perry]

monty is my pick - oakmont

[Albatros]

Stenson

Casey

CHIII

Immelman