Expected Winning Score in Net Tournament

[dhc1]

I'd be interested in getting a poll on what the expected winning score would be for a one-day tournament with 50 participants with handicaps evenly distributed between 13-30 (let's assume that their handicaps are legitimate).

[bk52]

Assuming we are talking "net", which the poll tends to support, I would say 65 or 66 on a moderate difficulty course (no long forced carries, half or more greens open enough to allow run up shots, not a lot of water hazards). One can always get an outlier score but I would expect quite a few net scores in the 60's.

This is based on our club-without-real estate tournament results. We have 100+ players separated into 4 flights with handicaps running from 2 to 30 and it often takes a net 65 or 66 in the "C" and "D" flights to win.

With 50 players, I recommend you split the field into two flights or the guys with 13-20 handicaps won't see much success.

[Newby]

What has this got to do with the Rules or Etiquette?

[dhc1]

[quote name='Newby' timestamp='1428698749' post='11329617']
What has this got to do with the Rules or Etiquette?
[/quote]

Thanks for the question: given how many topic here address sandbagging, I thought it belonged here.

Mods are free to move.

[llewol007]

Good luck with that one. Played in a best ball tourney and we came in with a 59. Two teams came in with a 54. Im not sure what a scramble format with all the inflated handicaps. I wouldn't be surprised with a sub 50 since every seams to have their best rounds at a scramble.

[Ranchobob]

I've participated in a scramble with a group of guys indexing from low double-digits to 20ish and we scored a net 54 or something ludicrous like that.

It was legit--cheating at golf isn't my thing--but we got plenty of sandbagging accusations regardless.

[Mr. Herbert]

The OP said nothing about this being a scramble.

[dhc1]

If I've done the math right, there is a 60+% chance that the winning score would be at least 5 under and a 40% chance it's at least 6 under. This is for a one day tournament with 50 people. If you add more players, the expected scores would be far lower.

When I read comments from near scratch golfer saying they won't play in net tournaments because of all the sandbaggers, I always think that it could just be simple stats working against them rather than sandbaggers as its much more difficult for a scratch to shoot six under.

I think it's fine for them not to want to play where the odds are against them but don't make it seem that you are doing it because of cheaters (who certainly exist but I think that much of the griping isn't warranted).

FYI. This isn't for best ball or a scramble but based on the stats, I'd guess that the expected scores for both would be in the 50s but my stat knowledge is far too dated to work it out.

[Matt J]

I played my first net event yesterday and was thinking of this exact question. It's incredibly unfair to the guys that are closer to winning the gross. If you have an index of 4 then you're probably going to shoot within 3 or 4 strokes either way of your course index. If you're a 20 I don't think it's out of the question to go plus or minus 10 strokes even with a legitimate handicap.

Another thought that occurred to me is how easy it would be to "subliminally" sandbag. I think that's why it's so controversial. It takes an extraordinary amount of concentration to play one's best. When posting high scores on regular rounds and low ones in tournaments is the "goal" I think it's easy to accidentally adapt a rather casual attitude in "regular" rounds and a more intense tournament game. We'd like to believe that this is "cheating" but all of us are aware of this paradigm so it takes a lot of self control to approach every shot in every round with the same amount of concentration.

[Itsjustagame]

[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1428850406' post='11339465']
I played my first net event yesterday and was thinking of this exact question. It's incredibly unfair to the guys that are closer to winning the gross. If you have an index of 4 then you're probably going to shoot within 3 or 4 strokes either way of your course index. If you're a 20 I don't think it's out of the question to go plus or minus 10 strokes even with a legitimate handicap.

Another thought that occurred to me is how easy it would be to "subliminally" sandbag. I think that's why it's so controversial. It takes an extraordinary amount of concentration to play one's best. When posting high scores on regular rounds and low ones in tournaments is the "goal" I think it's easy to accidentally adapt a rather casual attitude in "regular" rounds and a more intense tournament game. We'd like to believe that this is "cheating" but all of us are aware of this paradigm so it takes a lot of self control to approach every shot in every round with the same amount of concentration.
[/quote]

Strictly speaking what you are describing is not a round that should be included for handicap purposes.

[dhc1]

[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1428850406' post='11339465']
I played my first net event yesterday and was thinking of this exact question. It's incredibly unfair to the guys that are closer to winning the gross. If you have an index of 4 then you're probably going to shoot within 3 or 4 strokes either way of your course index. If you're a 20 I don't think it's out of the question to go plus or minus 10 strokes even with a legitimate handicap.

Another thought that occurred to me is how easy it would be to "subliminally" sandbag. I think that's why it's so controversial. It takes an extraordinary amount of concentration to play one's best. When posting high scores on regular rounds and low ones in tournaments is the "goal" I think it's easy to accidentally adapt a rather casual attitude in "regular" rounds and a more intense tournament game. We'd like to believe that this is "cheating" but all of us are aware of this paradigm so it takes a lot of self control to approach every shot in every round with the same amount of concentration.
[/quote]

Question: why should someone win both the gross and the net? Most tournaments have both but I think the point is that the net system allows higher handicaps to have something to play for and if they play great, they have a real chance of winning. They're not cheaters, they're high volatility players.

Finally, in my experience, most golfers handicaps are closer to vanity than subliminal sandbagging (which does exist). Mulligans on first tee and 2-3 foot gimmes add up and people just aren't used to holing every putt.

That being said, a 44 in a scramble begs credulity (as discussed in another thread).

[Matt J]

Not going to quote them all, but as for the first comment, my understanding is that every round should count every stroke by the book and every round should be posted.

I'm not arguing that there shouldn't be net, perhaps for a big field there should be flights of net.

Vanity vs. Sandbagging is the distilled down question. Not a lot of room in the middle IMHO.

[Matt J]

FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.

[Matt J]

FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.

[Itsjustagame]

[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1429279247' post='11380243']
FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.
[/quote]

Part of the USGA definition for an acceptable round is "[color=#474C56]every player will try to make the best score at each hole in every round, regardless of where the round is played"[/color]

[Itsjustagame]

[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1429279247' post='11380243']
FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.
[/quote]

Part of the USGA definition for an acceptable round is "[color=#474C56]every player will try to make the best score at each hole in every round, regardless of where the round is played"[/color]

[Matt J]

[quote name='Itsjustagame' timestamp='1429281117' post='11380499']
[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1429279247' post='11380243']
FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.
[/quote]

Part of the USGA definition for an acceptable round is "[color=#474C56]every player will try to make the best score at each hole in every round, regardless of where the round is played"[/color]
[/quote]

I think it's a nuance. Getting frustrated with your score and lining putts up a bit quicker or getting more aggressive is quite common when playing poorly. I'm not talking about intentionally throwing a round but rather temporary losses of judgement or faltering concentration. Easy for a "net" golfer to think, we'll it won't hurt me come tournament time because I'll stay in the game.

[Matt J]

[quote name='Itsjustagame' timestamp='1429281117' post='11380499']
[quote name='Matt J' timestamp='1429279247' post='11380243']
FTR, I shot 6 under my course handicap yesterday. Not that unusual.

Reading back through these comments I have never really understood post #10. If "itsjustagame" is still around I'm curious if you could elaborate. What kind of rounds should not be posted? I just established and the pro at my club was quite clear. Every round is to be played by the rules and posted.
[/quote]

Part of the USGA definition for an acceptable round is "[color=#474C56]every player will try to make the best score at each hole in every round, regardless of where the round is played"[/color]
[/quote]

I think it's a nuance. Getting frustrated with your score and lining putts up a bit quicker or getting more aggressive is quite common when playing poorly. I'm not talking about intentionally throwing a round but rather temporary losses of judgement or faltering concentration. Easy for a "net" golfer to think, we'll it won't hurt me come tournament time because I'll stay in the game.