Girls Driving Distances

[BFD3]

We don’t have US Kids locally so my kids have never played in one of their tournaments. But looking at their website, it seems like their course setups are on the short side. Are these numbers accurate? My daughter is 11 yo and is playing courses at 2600 yards (in an 11-12 yo division). Last year in the 9-10 division, she played at 2000 yards.

[MB19]

I'm curious why you didn't you use 2019 data, which is the most recent and complete year of data? HH already pointed out the average is strokes lower than 49.

 

[darter79]

USKG is always on the shorter side, especially with girls it seems. Those numbers are accurate. At the bigger events they stretch it out some worlds is the longest setup they have.

[JuniorGolfParent]

He never posted full year 2019 (only Winter). He said his cabal was calculating 2019 full year so I did full year 2018 - but he never ended up posting it.

Maybe the results didn’t help his cause?

[MB19]

If you really feel that the current state of 8-9 girls tournament golf is that dire, then it absolutely is not reflected in the results I posted from every most-recent Florida seasonal tournament’s posted championship plus the local I played in last week.

It those seven recent tournaments there were only seven girls who posted scores above 50.... and like 28 under 50. Interesting that there were no scores of 49 or 50.

As far as competing goes, South FL+ Orlando is absolutely loaded. 41 in Stuart’s last Winter Championship was good for 7th out of 7.

 

[JuniorGolfParent]

Who said the current state of anything was dire? I'm just trying to help everyone understand what the actual level of performance is across junior golf for a certain girls' age group. In the most competitive states no less. It sounds like the actual stats surprised the "experts" among us, who categorically dismissed my very cursory initial calculation (simple math) as completely off base, calling it ludicrous. Read this entire thread carefully..

[MB19]

Explaining to us that 49.x is average and not basing it on the direct-past-year's data just doesn't ring true when we look at the results. Also, the connotation behind calling a group of friends who have or had children playing 8/9 now or in the past puts a negative connotation on a few long-standing friendships. I'm not sure why you want to do that?

If you are looking to get a real look at what the scores for FL 8/9 girls look like, and you're doing it without the several Palm Beach/Boca/Miami girls who shoot low 40s/high 30s on the regular (and yes, the two girls who will shoot in the 60s), then that's an incomplete look. Maybe you should get Don Law to chime in here?

[darter79]

I actually did all the math for 2019 for Texas only. Overall average was around 46, the mean was around 44. I'd say thats well under 50 you keep claiming it is, that is with a few locals that are above your hypothesis of an average. No-one going to agree here, unless someone is that damn bored to pull all the data for 2019 and run some data no way you will have real hard data to say yes its over 50 or no its not. Just like in terms of your driving average number no way to prove that, not ever just can't do it. The data doesn't exist unless you setup a trackman at every local. If you want to see averages come to worlds you will see what the 8 years olds are hitting, 9 year old is hitting. USKG has some data but it's not shared even then thats just for those who visit their demo day. Maybe the better way to say this for the competitive tournament player they are driving it 150+ at 9. I have trackman data to back this up mine will carry it over 150 at 9 and swings over 70 SS. For the kid just starting of course that kid who 9 not driving it 150 but if you're trying to win I'd say you better be.

[JuniorGolfParent]

I'm sorry, I don't really understand what you are asking or trying to say. What does "Also, the connotation behind calling a group of friends who have or had children playing 8/9 now or in the past puts a negative connotation on a few long-standing friendships." mean? The average score for *ALL* Local Tour events in 2018 in the entire state of FL, 673 scores in total, is 48.3, with a median of 47.

The data set doesn't include weather-shortened events with scores in the 20s.

Again, I calculated the average for the entire 2018 calendar year for the state of FL, 10 separate Local Tours: Boca Raton, Jacksonville, Miami, Naples, NW FL, Orlando, Sarasota, Stuart, Tampa, West Palm Beach. I'm not leaving out any Local Tours - they include all of the areas you mention in your post above.

As I explained earlier, I didn't do 2019 because HH said "We are in a group text right now about the ludicrous claims you are making. Someone else is going through the 2019 Spring Season as I already proved you wrong with the 2019 Winter Series."

I assumed someone in the cabal would calculate, and then post, the other 2019 scores, which he references. No one did, so we don't know the 2019 full year stats. Of course even if someone else did calculate 2019 Spring (again, no mention of it anywhere) it still doesn't include Summer or Fall data.

All the scores are there on the website for everyone to see - feel free to calculate if you like.

 

[JuniorGolfParent]

You do realize that "average" and "mean" are the same thing?

Which of the stats I posted are inaccurate and do you disagree with?

[darter79]

My apologies it was median wha I meant to type. That's what I get for trying to post late at night. But I would think you understand what my point was. Using 2019 data Texas isn't near the 50 you claim it is. Let's see driving distance, avg 9 isn't what you think. Hey but then again what do I know she is just in her last season of girls 8/9 with a few regionals and worlds trips thrown in there. I think I have a good handle of what average distance would be for that age group. Best of luck.

[JuniorGolfParent]

You made the mean vs median mistake twice, including in an earlier post.

If you read what I wrote, I actually said "The average score for 8-9 Girls for 9 hole US Kids Local events is around 50. FL and CA are close to that figure as well." I then mentioned average for TX for Spring 2020 is 47.6 in a later post. I never said TX was 50, so it seems you may have overreacted, or at least inferred more than what I said.

I find this whole back and forth fascinating, because the only reason I even mentioned average scores for 8-9 Girls is because I wanted to point out that it seems implausible that the average 9yo girls' driving distance is 150+, otherwise they'd be driving a lot of the greens in US Kids Local Tour events...and not scoring close to 50. Take 2 mins and look at some of the other Local Tour scores across the country, not just TX. There are Tours where half a dozen 8-9 Girls are playing and none of them are breaking 50. So yeah, I still believe "the average score 8-9 Girls for 9 hole US Kids Local events is around 50."

And just to prevent a return to the "that's not competitive" straw-man argument, go back and look at your original replies of "Average is 50 for FL and CA not buying that at all,", "the average is no where near 50", "Not even close perhaps some areas you can say that but not TX, FL, CA for sure." "If your girl drives it 125 at worlds at 9 she will be left in the dust. If she drives it 125 don't bother showing up because then you're not breaking 45. Facts."

You may want to not make such definitive statements about things that can easily be proven (like average scores available on the US Kids website) and might want to temper some of your arguments for things that cannot be easily determined. Good luck.

[leezer99]

I would just like to remind everyone we had this same conversation a year and a half ago and that thread got locked.

 

[JuniorGolfParent]

That's amazing - history is repeating

I guess there is serious yardage inflation for young girls' (and boys') driving distances, given some of the responses then vs now

[darter79]

ok dude think what you prefer to think. I'll stand by what I've seen and know. The averages are what the averages are its pretty simple. I'm sure the overall overage of scores is higher then I think it is but I'm not taking the time to pull every local tour. I'll just take your word for it. Way too much time to do something like that.

My statement regarding 125 and getting left in the dust had to do with worlds, not locals. 125 on par 4s around 196, 240 and one near 250. Par 5s at 312-345. Local level you can be short and score well you can be near the greens and make double I've seen my kid do that. Just because the scores are over a certain score doesn't mean kids are not driving the ball a particular distance. But at worlds and distances around 2000 125 won't cut it. Hope you get to make the trip its a blast and a lot of fun and a great overall experience.

[MB19]

2018 stats are less-relevant to the current state of 8/9 girls scores in FL. I'm not sure why you insist on hanging your hat on that.

Golfingdawg19 posted what he observed from Trackman at a USKG Regional, which read 150. Darter's daughter is among the top players in the 8/9 age group, and he said his observations say 140 is closer to average. Based on my small sample size from last week, where I observed a collectively competitive threesome which included a girl who finished in the top 30 at 8 Worlds last year and the FL Invitational 7's champion. These girls are hardly unique in FL, but one is a top-5 and the other is perhaps a top-15 in the 8/9--the other, it was her first tournament experience who had been swinging golf clubs for 11 months. Top-5 girl shot 36, spiked 170 on her drive and averaged about 160. Newly-8-y.o. shot 40, spiked 155 and averaged perhaps 145. New tournament player shot 48 and spiked 150 on her drive, averaged perhaps 130 thanks to a severe mishit on the final tee. The other two girls did not mishit off the tee. These girls finished 1st, 3rd and 5th in a six-player local.

The Stuart and Boca tours, the most competitive tours along with Orlando, aren't even running right now--so your information using current tournaments is going to be skewed-high.

Using the term cabal to describe a group of friends is labeling them underhanded, but I think you know that.

[JuniorGolfParent]

I think I understand now - you are saying 2019 average FL scores are much more reflective of this exact crop of 8-9 Girls, and they might be much better than 2018. The numbers are on the internet for anyone to calculate. I would be happy to concede this point to you if the difference in average is statistically significant (defined as p-value < 0.05). TBH, I don't think I am "hanging my hat" on anything - I am assuming over time the scores for a specific age group for FL for any given year across almost 700 scores are going to be very similar. But I would welcome you to calculate the 2019 stats and share them with us.Have you been to a Regional event? The average player competing at a Regional event is much more skilled than the Local Tour. If you are basing driving distances for an age based on this, you are effectively eliminating all players who 1) aren't good enough to have priority status and get an invite, 2) aren't ready for a 2-day event, 3) have parents who cannot afford or are not serious enough to shell out $255/315 + hotel + travel + practice round, 4) have parents who don't want to pay the separate consultation fee to get their kid a 25-minute Trackman session to see their distances. Do you suppose longer hitters might be more interested in getting the Trackman results, thereby causing a self-selection bias? Bottom line: Regional participants and the numbers for a paid Trackman session are nowhere close to "average".While your anecdotes and observations are as relevant as anyone else's, I think they are going to lead to inaccuracies that plague all individuals who make estimates. I did this myself, estimating my daughter's average driving distance on our home course, and then, using a GPS, calculated the actual average over the course of 6 rounds. I was off by 10-15 yards, because my estimate didn't really properly weight all of the slight mishits while my mind naturally overweighted the great shots she hit. As an aside, her tournament average for tee shots, again using GPS, over the course of 5 rounds, is 138. For perspective, she's maxed out at 170+ (downhill, probably downwind). If I didn't actually do the math, I would have assumed she was easily 150+ on average. Lastly, among the 20-25 different girls she has played with the last 2 years, exactly one girl has consistently outdriven her during a tournament. Again, just my own personal observation/anecdote. (This bias doesn't just exist for overzealous or casually observing parents: I'm willing to bet that almost everyone on GolfWRX overestimates his own average driving distance. The only way to know for sure is to use a GPS or Arccos/Game Golf type system and count every shot. I've done it myself and was quite surprised by the results.)The average 2018 (full year) score for Stuart was 47.7. For Boca Raton it was 46.1. Even if they were running now and you added those to the 2020 Spring Local Tour numbers it doesn't change the overall FL state average by more than 0.3 strokes. Do the math and see for yourself.ca·bal /kəˈbäl,kəˈbal/ a secret political clique or faction; (wiki) a cabal is a group of people united in some close design, usually to promote their private views or interests in an ideology, state, or other community, often by intrigue and usually unbeknownst to those outside their group Using the term cabal does not label them underhanded, and in fact, when someone says "We are in a group text right now about the ludicrous claims you are making", claims which actually turned out to be generally true, it sounds like that's the proper way to describe them.

[leezer99]

@JuniorGolfParent Thank you for taking the time to put that last post together. A little clinical in its approach but I appreciate the time and effort you put in. That being said, can we get onto something more important like Boys Driving Distances? /s

[heavy_hitter]

Your claim was the average score was 50, it was not.

[JuniorGolfParent]

"The average score for 8-9 Girls for 9 hole US Kids Local events is around 50. FL and CA are close to that figure as well."

Read before you post.

[JuniorGolfParent]

Speaking of inconsistencies, you mentioned in the thread leezer99 posted from 1.5yrs ago:

someone wrote

"[Age 6: 100

Age 7: 140

Age 8: 165

Age 9: 180

My best guesses, thoughts?]"

Your (HeavyHitter's) response: "That is real high even for boys."

Now you say in this thread "My son at 9 did compete. He drove the ball right around 180 and was short"

Which one is it? Is 180 for Age 9 "real high even for boys"? Or is it short?

[darter79]

Seeing this is about girls might be appropriate to sing a frozen song....

 

 

 

[heavy_hitter]

So you pick what you want your narrative to be.

 

Florida Winter 2019 Average was 44.9

Florida Spring 2019 Average was 47.9

Florida Summer 2019 Average 47.03

[JuniorGolfParent]

What about Fall 2019?

Why not just give the averages for the entire year?

[heavy_hitter]

Depends on the time table of when it was written or the thinking. An 8 going on to a 9 year old is much different than a 9 going on to a 10 year old.

You are also cherry picking your narrative. I said in this thread "He was short on the local tour he was playing on."

I also said this below in another thread.

If you are talking solely junior golfers this is my take:

 

Average only

 

12: 190-200

 

11: 180-190

 

10: 170-180

 

9: 160-170

 

8: 150-160

 

 

 

At 8 to around 10 the above average kids to Elite kids in distance your are talking about adding on 10-30 yards to the high end. 11 to 12 is when it gets really tricking and it is all due to growth. At these ages you are talking about above average distance adding 10 to 40 yards on. Elite distance at 11 and 12 is 40 to 80 yards more of distance to the high end. The kid who won the US Kids Worlds at 12 this year is 6'5". Stood on a practice green next to him and thought it was the brother of a player. Nope. He had an inch on me.

[heavy_hitter]

Go ahead. Tally it up. Some of us do work. I have already shown you several cases where your narrative isn't true.

[JuniorGolfParent]

There's no rush - I did the 2018 season for you. Come back whenever you are bored like you were last week with the results. Include every score.

Glad you were reminded of your 180 Boys 9yo comment - that was classic.

[leezer99]

 

[JuniorGolfParent]

you should definitely start a Boys Driving Distance thread where people share their stats across the bag (not just driver)

[leezer99]

The only thing my kid needs to work on is getting the ball into the hole faster. Doesn't matter if he is consistently out-driving other kids if he doubles the hole (which he has done many times).