Marc Leishman On 18 - 260 Out, Down 2, and Layup?

[playa]

I always thought most pros operate on a 70-80% margin when deciding on shots. If you think you can make the shot 70-80% of the time it's a green light. If less than that, play the safer shot unless extenuating circumstances (in a playoff or in matchplay etc) demand you go for it. I didn't watch the telecast but from the description here it sounds like a 50/50 shot at best, and taking into account possible penalties for not pulling it off Leishman had a no brainer. These guys don't make it to the main show by being chumps.

[Ty_Webb]

[quote name='playa' timestamp='1391033472' post='8560348']
I always thought most pros operate on a 70-80% margin when deciding on shots. If you think you can make the shot 70-80% of the time it's a green light. If less than that, play the safer shot unless extenuating circumstances (in a playoff or in matchplay etc) demand you go for it. I didn't watch the telecast but from the description here it sounds like a 50/50 shot at best, and taking into account possible penalties for not pulling it off Leishman had a no brainer. These guys don't make it to the main show by being chumps.
[/quote]

I'd guess his odds were more like 5/95 and the 5% of the time that he actually pulled it off, he'd have been left with a shot that was just as hard to make as the wedge from the fairway anyway. That's an AWFUL lot of risk for basically zero reward.

[Playaway]

[quote name='Ty_Webb' timestamp='1391030065' post='8559980']
[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391028872' post='8559870']
[quote name='golfdude300' timestamp='1390797635' post='8540963']
Marc Leishman Career Earnings[i]:[/i]$8,712,017.

He's down 2 and needs to eagle the 18th. He's 260 out decent lie in the rough after taking a drop. What does he do? He lays up and finishes with birdie. Cashes in $366,000.

Worst case scenario: He ducks it in the water, pitches up, and one putts for par. That pays $190,116.67.

Best case scenario: He hits the green or gets within chipping distance,makes the eagle, gains momentum, heads to a playoff and wins $1,098,000.00.

Good course management or bad course management? Champ or Chump?

I'm going for it. Thanks!
[/quote]

This, in part, is why Tiger Woods has 14 major championships.

The competition in this era does not know how to win.

Why?

BECAUSE THEY DON'T NEED TO. $$$$
[/quote]

And yet, apparently Scott Stallings knows how to win.

It's fascinating that you think that someone laying up from 260 in the rough when it's cold and not foolishly throwing it away by going for it is somehow indicative that people don't know how to win.

Tiger has 14 majors because he's shot lower scores than anyone else 14 times in major championships. If people these days didn't know how to win, then he would have won a whole lot more than 14. Similarly, if, for example, Doug Sanders could putt from 2 and a half feet, Jack would have only won 17. People have choked in majors for a long time and I suspect that they will continue to do so.
[/quote]

Stallings was in the house. Otherwise he'd have probably barfed on his footjoys (but I wouldn't tell him that to his face).

Leishman is hitting 8 iron to 190 yard par 3's. What do you think he needs for a 255 yard carry?

Where are the Trevino's, Player's, Watson's, Palmer's, Miller's even Ray Floyd's in today's era?

Scott Stallings? Are you serious?

I can count just a handful of players in this era that play to win. Angel Cabrera is a prime example. Phil's another. You think Phil would have laid up? You think Cabrera would have laid up? Other guys just lay up. Matt Kuchar is an example of a lay up. Hunter Mahan. Cash a check and get on a plane, maybe his own plane. They do not need to win. They don't have to win. So they don't learn how to win. They are multi-multi with no wins.

Tiger has 14 majors because he shot a lower score? Technically yes, but he won 14 majors because few today know how to finish. (See Johnny Miller, 1973 Oakmont final round 63 U.S. Open Championship) Now that is how you finish.

[Ty_Webb]

[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391035161' post='8560526']
[quote name='Ty_Webb' timestamp='1391030065' post='8559980']
[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391028872' post='8559870']
[quote name='golfdude300' timestamp='1390797635' post='8540963']
Marc Leishman Career Earnings[i]:[/i]$8,712,017.

He's down 2 and needs to eagle the 18th. He's 260 out decent lie in the rough after taking a drop. What does he do? He lays up and finishes with birdie. Cashes in $366,000.

Worst case scenario: He ducks it in the water, pitches up, and one putts for par. That pays $190,116.67.

Best case scenario: He hits the green or gets within chipping distance,makes the eagle, gains momentum, heads to a playoff and wins $1,098,000.00.

Good course management or bad course management? Champ or Chump?

I'm going for it. Thanks!
[/quote]

This, in part, is why Tiger Woods has 14 major championships.

The competition in this era does not know how to win.

Why?

BECAUSE THEY DON'T NEED TO. $$$$
[/quote]

And yet, apparently Scott Stallings knows how to win.

It's fascinating that you think that someone laying up from 260 in the rough when it's cold and not foolishly throwing it away by going for it is somehow indicative that people don't know how to win.

Tiger has 14 majors because he's shot lower scores than anyone else 14 times in major championships. If people these days didn't know how to win, then he would have won a whole lot more than 14. Similarly, if, for example, Doug Sanders could putt from 2 and a half feet, Jack would have only won 17. People have choked in majors for a long time and I suspect that they will continue to do so.
[/quote]

Stallings was in the house. Otherwise he'd have probably barfed on his footjoys (but I wouldn't tell him that to his face).

Leishman is hitting 8 iron to 190 yard par 3's. What do you think he needs for a 255 yard carry?

Where are the Trevino's, Player's, Watson's, Palmer's, Miller's even Ray Floyd's in today's era?

Scott Stallings? Are you serious?

I can count just a handful of players in this era that play to win. Angel Cabrera is a prime example. Phil's another. You think Phil would have laid up? You think Cabrera would have laid up? Other guys just lay up. Matt Kuchar is an example of a lay up. Hunter Mahan. Cash a check and get on a plane, maybe his own plane. They do not need to win. They don't have to win. So they don't learn how to win. They are multi-multi with no wins.

Tiger has 14 majors because he shot a lower score? Technically yes, but he won 14 majors because few today know how to finish. (See Johnny Miller, 1973 Oakmont final round 63 U.S. Open Championship) Now that is how you finish.
[/quote]

Schwartzel finished okay at the Masters a couple of years ago. There are others. If you're going to cherry pick one example, then so can I. Like Tom Watson in 1978 at the Open Championship.

Incidentally, I believe someone already pointed out that Phil did lay up in a similar position a couple of years ago and then sent Bones to tend the flag while he tried to tie. Funny that.

[BoomerSooner214]

[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391035161' post='8560526']
[quote name='Ty_Webb' timestamp='1391030065' post='8559980']
[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391028872' post='8559870']
[quote name='golfdude300' timestamp='1390797635' post='8540963']
Marc Leishman Career Earnings[i]:[/i]$8,712,017.

He's down 2 and needs to eagle the 18th. He's 260 out decent lie in the rough after taking a drop. What does he do? He lays up and finishes with birdie. Cashes in $366,000.

Worst case scenario: He ducks it in the water, pitches up, and one putts for par. That pays $190,116.67.

Best case scenario: He hits the green or gets within chipping distance,makes the eagle, gains momentum, heads to a playoff and wins $1,098,000.00.

Good course management or bad course management? Champ or Chump?

I'm going for it. Thanks!
[/quote]

This, in part, is why Tiger Woods has 14 major championships.

The competition in this era does not know how to win.

Why?

BECAUSE THEY DON'T NEED TO. $$$$
[/quote]

And yet, apparently Scott Stallings knows how to win.

It's fascinating that you think that someone laying up from 260 in the rough when it's cold and not foolishly throwing it away by going for it is somehow indicative that people don't know how to win.

Tiger has 14 majors because he's shot lower scores than anyone else 14 times in major championships. If people these days didn't know how to win, then he would have won a whole lot more than 14. Similarly, if, for example, Doug Sanders could putt from 2 and a half feet, Jack would have only won 17. People have choked in majors for a long time and I suspect that they will continue to do so.
[/quote]

Stallings was in the house. Otherwise he'd have probably barfed on his footjoys (but I wouldn't tell him that to his face).

Leishman is hitting 8 iron to 190 yard par 3's. What do you think he needs for a 255 yard carry?

Where are the Trevino's, Player's, Watson's, Palmer's, Miller's even Ray Floyd's in today's era?

Scott Stallings? Are you serious?

I can count just a handful of players in this era that play to win. Angel Cabrera is a prime example. [b]Phil's another. You think Phil would have laid up? [/b] You think Cabrera would have laid up? Other guys just lay up. Matt Kuchar is an example of a lay up. Hunter Mahan. Cash a check and get on a plane, maybe his own plane. They do not need to win. They don't have to win. So they don't learn how to win. They are multi-multi with no wins.

Tiger has 14 majors because he shot a lower score? Technically yes, but he won 14 majors because few today know how to finish. (See Johnny Miller, 1973 Oakmont final round 63 U.S. Open Championship) Now that is how you finish.
[/quote]

Fail. Phil did lay up in a very similar situation.

[mshills]

[quote name='Playaway' timestamp='1391028872' post='8559870']
[quote name='golfdude300' timestamp='1390797635' post='8540963']
Marc Leishman Career Earnings[i]:[/i]$8,712,017.

He's down 2 and needs to eagle the 18th. He's 260 out decent lie in the rough after taking a drop. What does he do? He lays up and finishes with birdie. Cashes in $366,000.

Worst case scenario: He ducks it in the water, pitches up, and one putts for par. That pays $190,116.67.

Best case scenario: He hits the green or gets within chipping distance,makes the eagle, gains momentum, heads to a playoff and wins $1,098,000.00.

Good course management or bad course management? Champ or Chump?

I'm going for it. Thanks!
[/quote]

This, in part, is why Tiger Woods has 14 major championships.

The competition in this era does not know how to win.

Why?

BECAUSE THEY DON'T NEED TO. $$$$
[/quote]

This might be the dumbest goddamn thing I've read on this board in recent memory.

Please explain. I hope you are not serious. If not, my apologies.

[Bronco01]

[quote name='golfdude300' timestamp='1390879876' post='8548207']
Big difference for amateurs, not pro's. Pro's can hit 2U real far.

This guy is hitting the same club Leishman has. Titleist 712U Iron 250-268. Depending how you play it. Does anyone grip down .25 or .5 inches anymore?

[media=]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBLMCWs-IHw[/media]
[/quote]That guy is at a driving range. No comparison.