DECADE this hole for me

[OnTheBag]

1 hour ago, Krt22 said:

This thread is not for you then

Maybe not.  But regardless of whatever "strategy of the month" you decide to play, the end result remains the same.  Ball goes in the hole with the least number of swings.

[Krt22]

33 minutes ago, OnTheBag said:

Maybe not.  But regardless of whatever "strategy of the month" you decide to play, the end result remains the same.  Ball goes in the hole with the least number of swings.

Not 100% correct. There are lots of ways to inflate your scores with poor course management and intentionally laying back "to be in the fairway" is one of them. 

[getitdaily]

3 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

Not 100% correct. There are lots of ways to inflate your scores with poor course management and intentionally laying back "to be in the fairway" is one of them. 

100%...and this got me this past weekend. 

 

3rd hole at redtail in north Orlando. Hole plays something like 370. Big oaks on the left side. Decent bit of room right but too far right is ob. I strategized that 3w was the right play. It would leave me with 110ish yards and ob wasn't an issue. What I didn't factor in was slightly pulling 3w.

 

I slightly pulled 3w and left myself 155, behind and under an oak. I curved it under and around the oak but hit it too well and ran it off the back of the green to within 6" of a fence. Made doubled.

 

I can hit driver off a grass tee that is a 90% guaranteed cut that runs out to 270-280. Had I hit that shot, I'm probably kicking a wedge up near the hole. 

[SNIPERBBB]

I dont think the trees on the left side look that bad really as they are pretty open from that image so if you want to get aggressive with the driver you can risk the left side as long as you dont hook it into the houses.If your going to layup on this hole, layup. Stay left and short of the bunker.

Edited April 6, 2022 by SNIPERBBB

[rmeder]

I admittedly do not know much about Decade at all, however I know strokes gained pretty well.  I ran a quick analysis for the 3 lines you showed and used my own probability distribution (4 hcp) to identify how you might approach the course management on the hole.  My analysis suggests that the yellow line you showed would be optimal.  Knowing the tree density would help refine this down.  The short answer is that the red line brings too many trees into play, while the green line is so far back your approach becomes much more difficult.

[RCGA]

DECADE Elite member here. 

 

This isn't a driver hole. You fan it right and you're OB or stymied from the trees. Pull it and you're chipping out into a very shallow area. Mishit it and you have to contend with the bunker. 

 

3 wood isn't any more accurate than driver. So you still have to deal with all the issues driver brings. Maybe you get slightly better odds since the fairway is slightly wider, but it's immaterial IMO. 

 

The hole clearly has a high scoring average. Play for par by hitting short of the bunker and then play to the middle of the green. 

 

Anyone saying the fairway bunker is okay is out to lunch. Strokes gained (neutral result, so neither + or -) from 150y in a fairway bunker is 60ft from the hole, compared to 35ft from 170y in the fairway. 

[ChaosTheory]

3 hours ago, RCGA said:

DECADE Elite member here. 

 

This isn't a driver hole. You fan it right and you're OB or stymied from the trees. Pull it and you're chipping out into a very shallow area. Mishit it and you have to contend with the bunker. 

 

3 wood isn't any more accurate than driver. So you still have to deal with all the issues driver brings. Maybe you get slightly better odds since the fairway is slightly wider, but it's immaterial IMO. 

 

The hole clearly has a high scoring average. Play for par by hitting short of the bunker and then play to the middle of the green. 

 

Anyone saying the fairway bunker is okay is out to lunch. Strokes gained (neutral result, so neither + or -) from 150y in a fairway bunker is 60ft from the hole, compared to 35ft from 170y in the fairway. 

Thanks!

Just to clarify, the right side stymie or OB is outside of a 65 yard wide cone, if the cone includes the trees on the left.   But your analysis is well taken.

 I just saw that it’s the #16 handicap hole so apparently it’s easy.  Upon reflection, I think what is deceiving is that what is a 7 iron from the green arc in my narrative is probably a PW for strong players.  So you could lay up and still have PW while I’d have 7 iron.  Your PW would definitely suggest staying short of everything.  
 

  In a month I’ll be playing it regularly so I’ll provide a real life update when I can.

 

 

[bladehunter]

On 4/6/2022 at 2:58 PM, Krt22 said:

This thread is not for you then

Come on now.  I’m a subscriber. But not a believer / or fully understand-er-er.   I clicked it to see what the consensus was.  I think my home course is the antithesis of decade. Per the response you gave him on 70 yard widths etc. i can’t hit driver half the time that I actually do.  This is why it’s so damn confounding to me.  Not confusing.  I can read. And hear. But it confounds my mind to hear that I need to play a course with all irons basically.  

[bladehunter]

On 4/6/2022 at 5:12 PM, Krt22 said:

Not 100% correct. There are lots of ways to inflate your scores with poor course management and intentionally laying back "to be in the fairway" is one of them. 

I’m not trying to argue here.  But doesn’t this post conflict with the first one you made telling the op to lay back?   

[ChaosTheory]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

Come on now.  I’m a subscriber. But not a believer / or fully understand-er-er.   I clicked it to see what the consensus was.  I think my home course is the antithesis of decade. Per the response you gave him on 70 yard widths etc. i can’t hit driver half the time that I actually do.  This is why it’s so damn confounding to me.  Not confusing.  I can read. And hear. But it confounds my mind to hear that I need to play a course with all irons basically.  

 

Good comments on the other side of the DECADE idea.  I agree that most of us regularly choose driver into windows tighter than Fawcett talks about.  I think he's trying to show that people can hit driver more often than they think they can. 

 

I think he says if you can find you can find your ball (sand, trees, rough), it's okay to include that area in your driver dispersion pattern/ decision tree.   Someone correct me if I'm wrong.  Obviously it would be a matter of how much of the pattern is trees or sand and can you expect to advance the ball.

 

[Krt22]

On 4/10/2022 at 7:20 AM, bladehunter said:

I’m not trying to argue here.  But doesn’t this post conflict with the first one you made telling the op to lay back?   

Not at all conflicting. Laying back to avoid big trouble and laying back "to be in the fairway" are not the same thing. One is a calculated decision based on probabilities and one is not.  The same goes for par5s, there is a difference between laying up for the sake of it and laying up to avoid big trouble. There are plenty of people who lay up in willy nilly fashion "to be in the short grass", not because there is major trouble in play if they don't.

[bladehunter]

2 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

Not at all conflicting. Laying back to avoid big trouble and laying back "to be in the fairway" are not the same thing. One is a calculated decision based on probabilities and one is not.  The same goes for par5s, there is a difference between laying up for the sake of it and laying up to avoid big trouble. There are plenty of people who lay up in willy nilly fashion "to be in the short grass", not because there is major trouble in play if they don't.

Ok.  I can go along with that.  Sure. On the surface.  Only thing I can say that doesn’t jive , I’ve never seen anyone layup when there’s no trouble to lay back from.  A 70 yard requirement side to side to hit driver is huge. There’s not many old courses that provide that window. 

[bladehunter]

6 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

Not at all conflicting. Laying back to avoid big trouble and laying back "to be in the fairway" are not the same thing. One is a calculated decision based on probabilities and one is not.  The same goes for par5s, there is a difference between laying up for the sake of it and laying up to avoid big trouble. There are plenty of people who lay up in willy nilly fashion "to be in the short grass", not because there is major trouble in play if they don't.

I’m not at all trying to start an argument.  
 

but it’s funny to me. I always thought I played too conservatively off the tee , then I use decade decision tree off the tee on my home course and I just quit after 12 or so.  I can’t hit driver anywhere.  And yet I do.   
 

now I will say. When I get to a big wide course. I’m very accurate with driver as far as fairways hit.  So playing on a harbor town type course has made a good driver of me.  But it stinks to play on a course that consistently defies the analytical approach.  Especially if you’re a skeptic who is trying to see the advantage that everyone raves about.  

[Krt22]

9 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

Ok.  I can go along with that.  Sure. On the surface.  Only thing I can say that doesn’t jive , I’ve never seen anyone layup when there’s no trouble to lay back from.  A 70 yard requirement side to side to hit driver is huge. There’s not many old courses that provide that window. 

Just because you have not seen them, doesn't mean they don't exist. I play a modern championship course and I have certainly seen it.

 

And for old narrow tree lined courses, if there is trouble lining the entire hole, isn't the decision still driver? The only time to hit less than driver is if it reduces the potential for big trouble, if the entire hole is narrow and tree lined, hitting less than driver doesn't buy you a whole lot, so it's still driver in those cases. 

[bladehunter]

2 hours ago, Krt22 said:

Just because you have not seen them, doesn't mean they don't exist. I play a modern championship course and I have certainly seen it.

 

And for old narrow tree lined courses, if there is trouble lining the entire hole, isn't the decision still driver? The only time to hit less than driver is if it reduces the potential for big trouble, if the entire hole is narrow and tree lined, hitting less than driver doesn't buy you a whole lot, so it's still driver in those cases. 

I don’t know.  There’s a part of me that wants to just hit driver all over.  But there’s another part that says “ what are the odds you get lucky 14 times “? 
 

On my course. It’s pinch points.  Off the tee is usually wide open.  And it will pinch at a certain place and stay narrow till the hole.  100 % a second shot course. But I do hit several drivers.  And like I said before , have a little bunt  cut I’ll roll up with driver.  I don’t usually count fairway bunkers as trouble unless it’s a deep one.  But OB and thick trees is the main issue.  

[RCGA]

 

6 hours ago, Krt22 said:

And for old narrow tree lined courses, if there is trouble lining the entire hole, isn't the decision still driver? The only time to hit less than driver is if it reduces the potential for big trouble, if the entire hole is narrow and tree lined, hitting less than driver doesn't buy you a whole lot, so it's still driver in those cases. 

 

The problem is, distance and launch conditions with the driver are fairly variable and you need to account for the decent angle and kick and roll when you're skirting the edges of your shot dispersion. On any given round my driving distance can range from 275-310y and obviously the way the ball is going to be landing and rolling is changing with it. 

 

All this means I can hit a good drive on a 65y wide hole, push it 25y right and now be at the mercy of the bounce and roll. Even more so if the fairway has a bit of curve to it. 

 

 

[andrewo615]

Long time Decade member here.

 

The play is driver. The decision tree is based on yardage between penalty hazards. In this instance the only penalty hazards are OB left and right and you have well in excess of 60 yards. Laying back doesn’t gain any width and trees on the left are still in play. Target is probably right edge of bunker, if not a little right of that. 
 

fully commit to driver and target, send it and then reevaluate from

there.

[KNOWMOREDOUBLES]

On 4/6/2022 at 11:57 AM, Lag_0820 said:

My general rule of thumb... If its not a par 3 always driver. This is golfwrx after all. lol

Problem is I hit my driver too  far!  I have so many of those in between yardage, it really makes golf difficult.

[RCGA]

I scoped it in Google Maps. The hole is only 355y from the tips. The green is 17x29y give or take 

 

Lines are at: 

 

300 @ 65

270 @ 58

240 @ 52 

 

Hitting a 240y club gives you a 78y landing area and 125y (depending on the angle) into the green. Virtually stress free hole if you play it this way. 

 

Driver gets you a pitch into the green but you're up against OB on the left and tree trouble on the right. Best case you have a 41y landing area. Not a fan of those odds unless you're an amazing driver of the ball. 

 

 

[bellgolf]

On 4/6/2022 at 7:31 AM, Snowman9000 said:

The green line is my expectation with a 3 hybrid.  It will be a 7 iron to the green,

Yellow is a 3 wood, and a 9 iron.

Red is driver.  The bunker can’t be carried.  The trees are fairly small.  Bermuda rough.  Gap wedge to the green.

 

What would you choose?  More importantly, What yields the lowest expected stroke average?

 

Lots of speculation.  Here is actually Decading the hole.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VbNZgTulkVIbPJuSszQYF5r5RExa1EcQfTzug6a0QTM/edit?usp=sharing

 

Originally I thought this was Driver.  Looks like it's 3 wood according to how often I think you'd be in a certain lie looking at your distances.

[ac6]

3 hours ago, bellgolf said:

 

Lots of speculation.  Here is actually Decading the hole.

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VbNZgTulkVIbPJuSszQYF5r5RExa1EcQfTzug6a0QTM/edit?usp=sharing

 

Originally I thought this was Driver.  Looks like it's 3 wood according to how often I think you'd be in a certain lie looking at your distances.

 

I was initially so confused about the "average score" values in this spreadsheet--the way the cells are labeled it's easy to interpret this as this saying that if you hit 3W off the tee and hit the fairway you expect to make birdie or better most of the time (2.94 scoring average) but I think you have to add back in your tee shot and get an average hole score of 3.94. That tracks with how I'm understanding the data at the bottom as well. But overall the calculations make a lot of sense--just noting that others might get confused as well.

Edited April 22, 2022 by ac6

[boomboomfred]

If there’s 65y between ob on both sides, it’s likely a driver centered slightly away from the bunker. 3w doesn’t eliminate the bunker and hybrid is a long way to lay back.

[Mustard_Tiger]

You say you can't carry the bunker with driver. I think your best choice is to pack on 40 pounds and speed train with Bryson until you can safely carry it.

 

Problem solved.

[fjk]

On 4/12/2022 at 2:41 PM, RCGA said:

I scoped it in Google Maps. The hole is only 355y from the tips. The green is 17x29y give or take 

 

Lines are at: 

 

300 @ 65

270 @ 58

240 @ 52 

 

Hitting a 240y club gives you a 78y landing area and 125y (depending on the angle) into the green. Virtually stress free hole if you play it this way. 

 

Driver gets you a pitch into the green but you're up against OB on the left and tree trouble on the right. Best case you have a 41y landing area. Not a fan of those odds unless you're an amazing driver of the ball. 

 

 

What did you use to get the overlay diagram on this hole?

[ChaosTheory]

After a year of playing the hole:

 

-The bunker is more of a distraction than anything.  Sure, everyone gets into it now and then, but as fairway bunkers go, it’s fairly easy, and…

 

-The real trouble with driver is left and right.  The trees left of the bunker are usually okay.  But if your ball is curving left, the slope can take it OB.  The trees and dry creek down right are usually a chip out or penalty drop.  The ground slopes away on each side, at driver run out distances, having the effect of narrowing the actual safe zone versus what it measures on a satellite view.

 

-Most guys hit driver, though.  They usually aim just left of the bunker.  I drove the green once (downwind). But laying up to the right of the bunker leaves you a full wedge or short iron.  It’s an easy hole to par without hitting driver.  
 

So if I’m screwing around I’ll hit driver.  In a tournament I’ll hit a hybrid.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Snowman9000

[fjk]

3 hours ago, fjk said:

What did you use to get the overlay diagram on this hole?

The app overlay is different now - I can only assume that’s how it used to look?

[fjk]

1 hour ago, Snowman9000 said:

After a year of playing the hole:

 

-The bunker is more of a distraction than anything.  Sure, everyone gets into it now and then, but as fairway bunkers go, it’s fairly easy, and…

 

-The real trouble with driver is left and right.  The trees left of the bunker are usually okay.  But if your ball is curving left, the slope can take it OB.  The trees and dry creek down right are usually a chip out or penalty drop.  The ground slopes away on each side, at driver run out distances, having the effect of narrowing the actual safe zone versus what it measures on a satellite view.

 

-Most guys hit driver, though.  They usually aim just left of the bunker.  I drove the green once (downwind). But laying up to the right of the bunker leaves you a full wedge or short iron.  It’s an easy hole to par without hitting driver.  
 

So if I’m screwing around I’ll hit driver.  In a tournament I’ll hit a hybrid.

Great update, thanks!