NFL Weekly Picks 2023

[Double Mocha Man]

On 12/27/2023 at 3:21 PM, touch said:

Our Picks  Week 17 

 

P3P               Atlanta                 Houston                SEA/PGH  Over

Q                  NE/BUFF Over     ATL/CHI Over        Baltimore 

 

 

 

 

Lines for Picks       Week 17 

 

Thursday

NY Jets                         at                   Cleveland -7 1/2            36

 

Saturday

Detroit                         at                    Dallas -6 1/2                   53 1/2 

 

Sunday

New England              at                    Buffalo -12                     40 1/2 

Carolina                      at                    Jacksonville -6 1/2        37 1/2

New Orleans              at                     Tampa -3                       42 1/2

Atlanta                        at                     Chicago -3                     39

Tennessee                 at                      Houston -3 1/2              42 1/2

Arizona                      at                      Philadelphia -10 1/2       47 1/2

San Fran -13 1/2        at                     Washington                   48 1/2

Miami                          at                     Baltimore -3                  47

LA Rams -6 1/2          at                     NY Giants                      42

Las Vegas                  at                     Indy-3                            44

Pittsburgh                  at                     Seattle -3 1/2                41 1/2

LA Chargers               at                    Denver -5 1/2                38 1/2

Cincinnati                   at                     Kansas City -7 1/2        45 1/2

Green Bay                  at                    Minnesota -1 1/2            46

 

 

NO Monday Night Game 

 

 

 

Overall Standings Week 16

 

180 Pts - NCLancer

149 Pts - NSX

                Doc

144 Pts - CHuntsman

139 Pts - NJBF

132 Pts - P3P

131 Pts - imKirby

114 Pts - Chisag

107 Pts - QQQ

100 Pts - DMM

89 Pts - Touch

72 Pts - TripleLindy

 

DMM logging in with his futile picks:

 

- Detroit destroys Dallas

- Chargers chomp on Denver

- Miami mauls Baltimore

 

 

 

 

[chisag]

1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

- Detroit destroys Dallas

- Chargers chomp on Denver

- Miami mauls Baltimore

 

 

... Some really ballsy choices amigo! I considered all of them but in the end I don't trust Goff in big games. I really liked him in college but I have no idea what to expect from Stidham. Miami is so hit or miss in big games but watching Hard Knocks I want to pick them. So good luck this week and I hope they all hit for you! 

[Double Mocha Man]

29 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... Some really ballsy choices amigo! I considered all of them but in the end I don't trust Goff in big games. I really liked him in college but I have no idea what to expect from Stidham. Miami is so hit or miss in big games but watching Hard Knocks I want to pick them. So good luck this week and I hope they all hit for you! 

 

No place in the country was having a Sunday weather crisis so I had to eschew my usual OVER/UNDER picks. 

 

Next week I'm gonna have to do a dreaded PP, with most teams resting players, trying out new QB's, seeking a good draft position, etc.  I'll have to find a game that really matters to the participants.

[chisag]

15 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Next week I'm gonna have to do a dreaded PP, with most teams resting players, trying out new QB's, seeking a good draft position, etc.  I'll have to find a game that really matters to the participants.

 

 

... I'll make your PP easy. I'll figure which game I would use my PP and since I have not picked one right yet, you just pick the opposite! 😇

[Double Mocha Man]

13 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... I'll make your PP easy. I'll figure which game I would use my PP and since I have not picked one right yet, you just pick the opposite! 😇

 

Thanks.  We both have about the same stellar PP record.  Between us we're 1-6-1.  Are you doing a PP this or next week?  Seems like the only way to move up to the middle of the pack, or below Touch.  😁

[nsxguy]

WEEK17 PICKS

 

JAGS        Over 37.5
RAVENS   Over 47
BILLS       Over 40

[CHuntsman]

Week 17 Picks

 

1. DET +6.5

2. BUF -12

3. SEA -3.5

Edited December 29, 2023 by CHuntsman

[touch]

I lost last night with the Under. I have two Picks left to make. 

Give me two Overs.

 

LA Rams  -  NY Giants Over 42

New Orleans - Tampa  Over 42 1/2 

 

 

I am not really even trying the last two weeks as I am studying up for a more decent showing in the Playoffs Contest. I do have my final PP next week so for that pick I will think a tad deeper. 😉

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by touch

[touch]

Our Picks  Week 17 

 

P3P               Atlanta                 Houston                SEA/PGH  Over

Q                  NE/BUFF Over     ATL/CHI Over        Baltimore

chisag          Chicago               LA Rams                Tampa

TL                 Detroit                 LA Rams                Tampa 

LP                NYJ/CLE Under   LAR/NYG Over      NO/TPA Over 

NJBF            Tampa                 New England         Houston

NCL           DET/DAL Over       Seattle                   Green Bay 

DMM            Detroit                  LA Chargers          Miami

nsx               Jacksonville        Baltimore               Buffalo

CH                Detroit                Seattle                    Buffalo 

 

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by touch

[nsxguy]

7 hours ago, chisag said:

... I tip my cap to those of you bold enough to take the Over/Under. 👍👍 I have always felt a superior team will find a way to win and overcome bad breaks. It doesn't always happen with the spread of course but I usually have hope right up to the end. A freak pass bouncing off a WR and right to a DB for a pick 6 may not effect win/loss but they can wreak the O/U. And I watch Bad Beats every week and it is almost always the O/U that are the heart breakers. 🤪

 

Earlier this season I took a count of the games that ended within 1 score of the spread, i.e. A late TD would've changed the result.

 

That week 9 of the 16 games could've changed at the end. I didn't do the research to see how many HAD actually changed, but,,,,,,,,,,,

 

An awful lot of games can, and have, gone the other way with a late score.

 

As well, we see a fair number of games producing 2 scores, often(?) 2 TDs, in the last few minutes or so. So, the UNDER can change to an OVER just that quickly.

 

But the OVER is the only bet of the  4 you can win in the first HALF. Once the game goes OVER, it's OVER (pun intended).

 

And given all those late scores, even a game that looks like an under as late as the last 3-5 minutes can STILL go over in a flash.

 

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, touch said:

I lost last night with the Under. I have two Picks left to make. 

Give me two Overs.

 

LA Rams  -  NY Giants Over 42

New Orleans - Tampa  Over 42 1/2 

 

 

I am not really even trying the last two weeks as I am studying up for a more decent showing in the Playoffs Contest. I do have my final PP next week so for that picks I will think a tad deeper. 😉

 

 

 

Doesn't matter how deep you think on a PP.  You're still gonna get minus points.  Just ask chisag.  Or me.

[chisag]

6 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

Are you doing a PP this or next week?  Seems like the only way to move up to the middle of the pack, or below Touch.  😁

 

 

... Nope PP is dead to me. I figure going 3-0 for 15pts or even 2-1 for 10pts is better than going 2-1 for zero points.  

[chisag]

1 hour ago, nsxguy said:

But the OVER is the only bet of the  4 you can win in the first HALF. Once the game goes OVER, it's OVER (pun intended).

 

And given all those late scores, even a game that looks like an under as late as the last 3-5 minutes can STILL go over in a flash.

 

 

... Almost every Bad Beat is some game with the over at 57 pts and there are 32 pts with 3 minutes left in the game and as you said, late scoring \sends the over into the 60's. Wacky plays, unusual turnovers or a busted tackle when running out the clock. 

[touch]

2 hours ago, touch said:

Our Picks  Week 17 

 

P3P               Atlanta                 Houston                SEA/PGH  Over

Q                  NE/BUFF Over     ATL/CHI Over        Baltimore

chisag          Chicago               LA Rams                Tampa

TL                 Detroit                 LA Rams                Tampa 

LP                NYJ/CLE Under   LAR/NYG Over      NO/TPA Over 

NJBF            Tampa                 New England         Houston

NCL           DET/DAL Over       Seattle                   Green Bay 

DMM            Detroit                  LA Chargers          Miami

nsx               Jacksonville        Baltimore               Buffalo

CH                Detroit                Seattle                    Buffalo 

 

 

 

 

Calling @imkirby34  and @doctoro . Your Picks please. 

[nsxguy]

17 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... Almost every Bad Beat is some game with the over at 57 pts and there are 32 pts with 3 minutes left in the game and as you said, late scoring \sends the over into the 60's. Wacky plays, unusual turnovers or a busted tackle when running out the clock. 

 

Bad Beats - sounds like a recording label.

[doctoro]

Not feeling it on any of these lines this week

I will go contrarian and take the Under 53 Dallas/ Detroit

 

I don’t trust that line in New York. Rams playing well and NY going with 

Tyrod over Vinny Barborino.  I actually think that’s gonna help NY cover 

Giants home dog.  
Giants +6.5

 

All Buffalo has to do to cover the 12 against New England is not to turn the ball over. 
I think they will be extra motivated. Buffalo -12 

 

 

[imkirby34]

1 hour ago, touch said:

 

 

Calling @imkirby34  and @doctoro . Your Picks please. 

 

On 12/28/2023 at 6:48 AM, imkirby34 said:

Week 17 Picks:

 

In retribution (purposely choosing wrong word) for last week's 0-3 on double-digit favorites, I'm going with the double-digit underdogs this week.

 

New England +12

Arizona +10 1/2

Washington +13 1/2

 

No Emeril gif this time.

 

Here you go, sir.  Just so there's proof that I did get those in before the weekly deadline.  Hehe.

[touch]

 

The NFL Playoffs Contest 2023-2024 

 

Please make sure you understand the format and the point system. Please also bookmark this post so you have it handy all Playoffs long to refer to when you have to submit your total points for the week. 

 

How it works.

 

Each player gets two Double It Please (DIP) plays to start. DIP's are totally optional. They can be used only during the first two weeks of the Playoffs. That is the Wild Card Weekend and the Divisional round weekend. You can use your DIP plays once each week during the first two weeks. Again this play is optional. 

 

Week 1 - Wildcard Weekend 

Pick either a side or an O/U in all the games. A DIP Play is allowed. 

Each winning pick is worth 20 points.

A loss is 0 points. 

A Push is worth 5 points. 

If you DIP'd a play and it hits you win 40 points. If you lose your DIP play it is -20 points, and again if you Push it is worth 5 points 

 

Week 2 - Divisional Round 

Pick a side AND an O/U in all the games. A DIP Play is allowed.

Each winning pick is worth 15 points. A loss is 0 points. A push is 5.

If you hit a DIP it is 30 points won. If you lose it's -15 points. A push is 5. 

 

* The Double It Play (always optional) at this point in the contest is now over. There is no DIP play involved during the final two weeks. 

 

Week 3 - Conference Championship Games

Pick a side AND an O/U in both games. 

A winning Pick is worth 10 points 

0 for a losing Pick.

A Push is worth 5 Points 

 

Week 4 - Super Bowl

Pick both the side and an O/U in the game. 

Each winning Pick is worth 25 points.

0 points for a losing Pick, and 5 for a Push. 

Submit a Total Points Scored in the game in the case we need a tiebreaker. 

 

 

 

The regular season is almost over. It has been a good time so far. We will be soon crowning the regular season champion and giving congratulations to whoever that winner is. It's then time to switch gears and start a new contest. 

* Important 

Now I understand that some of you are saying 'Whoa LP', this Playoffs deal is way too fancy, way too confusing, and way more complex. No worries, if you feel that way and don't wish to participate you are also able to just continue in normal fashion and pick 3 or 2 games a week with 5 points for a win. We can easily do both if there is interest in both ways of carrying onward this season. I am fortunate to have two numbers guys @NJBigFish22 and @NCLancer helping me run this contest. I am sure between the two of them they can get the numbers straight in the Standings.

 

I wanted to change it up a bit for the Playoffs. I tried to make it different and a bit more racy. It is my hope that most of you will be onboard with the new contest.  

 

Thank you all for your contributions and participation in this tread over the past 5 months.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by touch

[touch]

5 minutes ago, imkirby34 said:

 

 

Here you go, sir.  Just so there's proof that I did get those in before the weekly deadline.  Hehe.

 

 

I apologize for overlooking your Picks imk.

Shameful of me to call you out when you were straight all along.

 

 

That be Stoner Moment # 12 for the season committed by the commissioner. 😄

 

 

 

 

 

[touch]

Our Picks  Week 17      Final Edition 

 

P3P               Atlanta                 Houston                SEA/PGH  Over

Q                  NE/BUFF Over     ATL/CHI Over        Baltimore

chisag          Chicago               LA Rams                Tampa

TL                 Detroit                 LA Rams                Tampa

imk              New England       Arizona                   Washington       

LP                NYJ/CLE Under   LAR/NYG Over      NO/TPA Over 

NJBF            Tampa                 New England         Houston

NCL           DET/DAL Over       Seattle                   Green Bay 

DMM            Detroit                  LA Chargers          Miami

nsx               Jacksonville        Baltimore               Buffalo

CH                Detroit                Seattle                    Buffalo

doc             DET/DAL Under   NY Giants               Buffalo 

[NCLancer]

7 minutes ago, touch said:

 

The NFL Playoffs Contest 2023-2024 

 

Please make sure you understand the format and the point system. Please also bookmark this post so you have it handy all Playoffs long to refer to when you have to submit your total points for the week. 

 

How it works.

 

Each player gets two Double It Please (DIP) plays to start. DIP's are totally optional. They can be used only during the first two weeks of the Playoffs. That is the Wild Card Weekend and the Divisional round weekend. You can use your DIP plays once each week during the first two weeks. Again this play is optional. 

 

Week 1 - Wildcard Weekend 

Pick either a side or an O/U in all the games. A DIP Play is allowed. 

Each winning pick is worth 20 points.

A loss is 0 points. 

A Push is worth 5 points. 

If you DIP'd a play and it hits you win 40 points. If you lose your DIP play it is -20 points, and again if you Push it is worth 5 points 

 

Week 2 - Divisional Round 

Pick a side AND an O/U in all the games. A DIP Play is allowed.

Each winning pick is worth 15 points. A loss is 0 points. A push is 5.

If you hit a DIP it is 30 points won. If you lose it's -15 points. A push is 5. 

 

* The Double It Play (always optional) at this point in the contest is now over. There is no DIP play involved during the final two weeks. 

 

Week 3 - Conference Championship Games

Pick a side AND an O/U in both games. 

A winning Pick is worth 10 points 

0 for a losing Pick.

A Push is worth 5 Points 

 

Week 4 - Super Bowl

Pick both the side and an O/U in the game. 

Each winning Pick is worth 25 points.

0 points for a losing Pick, and 5 for a Push. 

Submit a Total Points Scored in the game in the case we need a tiebreaker. 

 

 

 

The regular season is almost over. It has been a good time so far. We will be soon crowning the regular season champion and giving congratulations to whoever that winner is. It's then time to switch gears and start a new contest. 

* Important 

Now I understand that some of you are saying 'Whoa LP', this Playoffs deal is way too fancy, way too confusing, and way more complex. No worries, if you feel that way and don't wish to participate you are also able to just continue in normal fashion and pick 3 or 2 games a week with 5 points for a win. We can easily do both if there is interest in both ways of carrying onward this season. I am fortunate to have two numbers guys @NJBigFish22 and @NCLancer helping me run this contest. I am sure between the two of them they can get the numbers straight in the Standings.

 

I wanted to change it up a bit for the Playoffs. I tried to make it a little more different, more racy. It is my hope that most of you will be onboard with the new contest.  

 

Thank you all for your contributions and participation in this tread over the past 5 months.

LP 

[touch]

Just now, NCLancer said:

 

 

😅   

 

 

As you know many of us have been doing this together in kind of the same way for a number of years now NCL, why not get a little crazy and different this playoff season? 🕺

[imkirby34]

23 minutes ago, touch said:

 

 

I apologize for overlooking your Picks imk.

Shameful of me to call you out when you were straight all along.

 

 

That be Stoner Moment # 12 for the season committed by the commissioner. 😄

 

 

 

 

 

 

No sweat.  What I left out of my Lounge post about yesterday's golf round is that I don't remember any part of the last 9 holes.  In fact, there's a video on my phone of one my friends trying a recovery shot from the trees which I don't remember recording.  😆

[chisag]

... I try to watch as many bowl games as I can to see of there are any QB's to keep an eye on. And da-yum does KC State have an absolutely insane talent. A true freshman that was the MVP of the Pop Tart Bowl. Talent jumps out immediately with crazy poise for a 30yr old but as a 19 yr old his future is blinding. Lightening fast release, moves around in the pocket by instinct, runs with his eyes downfield but can really run if needed and very fast. Soooo calm and had no problem waiting for a WR to get open or throw the ball away at the last second. 

... Avery Johnson. I would tell you to remember this name but the media is gonna LOVE this kid and we are gonna get sick of hearing about him. This press conference is after his first start and again, 19 yrs old!
 

 

[touch]

Our Picks  Week 17      Final Edition 

 

P3P               Atlanta                 Houston                SEA/PGH  Over

Q                  NE/BUFF Over     ATL/CHI Over        Baltimore

chisag          Chicago               LA Rams                Tampa

TL                 Detroit                 LA Rams                Tampa

imk              New England       Arizona                   Washington       

LP                NYJ/CLE Under   LAR/NYG Over      NO/TPA Over 

NJBF            Tampa                 New England         Houston

NCL           DET/DAL Over       Seattle                   Green Bay 

DMM            Detroit                  LA Chargers          Miami

nsx               Jacksonville        Baltimore               Buffalo

CH                Detroit                Seattle                    Buffalo

doc             DET/DAL Under   NY Giants               Buffalo 

 

 

Lines for Picks       Week 17 

 

Thursday

NY Jets                         at                   Cleveland -7 1/2            36

 

Saturday

Detroit                         at                    Dallas -6 1/2                   53 1/2 

 

Sunday

New England              at                    Buffalo -12                     40 1/2 

Carolina                      at                    Jacksonville -6 1/2        37 1/2

New Orleans              at                     Tampa -3                       42 1/2

Atlanta                        at                     Chicago -3                     39

Tennessee                 at                      Houston -3 1/2              42 1/2

Arizona                      at                      Philadelphia -10 1/2       47 1/2

San Fran -13 1/2        at                     Washington                   48 1/2

Miami                          at                     Baltimore -3                  47

LA Rams -6 1/2          at                     NY Giants                      42

Las Vegas                  at                     Indy-3                            44

Pittsburgh                  at                     Seattle -3 1/2                41 1/2

LA Chargers               at                    Denver -5 1/2                38 1/2

Cincinnati                   at                     Kansas City -7 1/2        45 1/2

Green Bay                  at                    Minnesota -1 1/2            46

 

 

NO Monday Night Game 

 

 

 

Overall Standings Week 16

 

180 Pts - NCLancer

149 Pts - NSX

                Doc

144 Pts - CHuntsman

139 Pts - NJBF

132 Pts - P3P

131 Pts - imKirby

114 Pts - Chisag

107 Pts - QQQ

100 Pts - DMM

89 Pts - Touch

72 Pts - TripleLindy

[touch]

[touch]

You've been missed this week Annie.

 

Edited December 30, 2023 by touch

[touch]

52 minutes ago, chisag said:

... I try to watch as many bowl games as I can to see of there are any QB's to keep an eye on. And da-yum does KC State have an absolutely insane talent. A true freshman that was the MVP of the Pop Tart Bowl. Talent jumps out immediately with crazy poise for a 30yr old but as a 19 yr old his future is blinding. Lightening fast release, moves around in the pocket by instinct, runs with his eyes downfield but can really run if needed and very fast. Soooo calm and had no problem waiting for a WR to get open or throw the ball away at the last second. 

... Avery Johnson. I would tell you to remember this name but the media is gonna LOVE this kid and we are gonna get sick of hearing about him. This press conference is after his first start and again, 19 yrs old!
 

 

 

 

Our QB Whisperer has spoken. Watch what happens next with the long haired blonde kid from KSU.   Purple is good stuff.  Thanks @chisag. 

[touch]

1 hour ago, chisag said:

... I try to watch as many bowl games as I can to see of there are any QB's to keep an eye on. And da-yum does KC State have an absolutely insane talent. A true freshman that was the MVP of the Pop Tart Bowl. Talent jumps out immediately with crazy poise for a 30yr old but as a 19 yr old his future is blinding. Lightening fast release, moves around in the pocket by instinct, runs with his eyes downfield but can really run if needed and very fast. Soooo calm and had no problem waiting for a WR to get open or throw the ball away at the last second. 

... Avery Johnson. I would tell you to remember this name but the media is gonna LOVE this kid and we are gonna get sick of hearing about him. This press conference is after his first start and again, 19 yrs old!
 

 

 

And just then a lot of middle America dudes of all ages shouted "he looks like a girl."  😄

 

Is Trevor Lawrence in a few years going to finally face a challenger to his NFL long locks crown? 

 

You're stupid LP. 😁

Edited December 30, 2023 by touch

[chisag]

29 minutes ago, touch said:

 

And just then a lot of the middle America dudes of all ages shouted "he looks like a girl."  😄

 

Is Trevor Lawrence in a few years going to finally face a challenger to his NFL long locks crown? 

 

You're stupid LP. 😁

 

 

... Gotta admit when I saw him pre game it looked like it might be a mullet. 😱  Then I saw him play and thought no way that's a mullet. I'll try and find some highlights to post.