The "How Confident Are You" Weekly Challenge

[PapaJohick]

[quote name='GGMUFrost' timestamp='1403564740' post='9561553']
[quote name='Papa Johick' timestamp='1403563739' post='9561455']

Playing Saturday and Sunday hoping for Under 75 Saturday and Under 80 Sunday. Good luck everyone!
[/quote]


I am a big guy, 6'4" 285. I swing around 115 with the driver so I can poke it out there a good bit. I am hoping that it won't beat me up too bad. I think it will be a lot of fun to play all the way back and see just how much better the pros are than me, I am assuming 10-15 shots haha.
[/quote]

well good luck and enjoy it!

[thegooddoctor]

A much more interesting bet would be a net bet

Ie how confident are you that you would shoot better than your handicap:

Net 69
2000/1000


Net 72
1000/750

Net 75
750/1000

Net 80
500/2000

This is a bet I am much more interested in, your best bet of the group is probably Net 80 ingeneral but a lot of risk for low reward

[Maddog10]

Apologize for the late update this week. As I mentioned before, I'm on vacation so the computer has not been much of a priority. I don't have the excel file on my personal pc, so next week will be a double-update. Congrats to those that accomplished their goals, and better luck next week to those that did not.

I fortunately accomplished my goal this weekend, which was a sub-80 round at a very difficult course down in Florida. I carded a 78 and left several strokes out there, mainly due to putting. I also got to play a second course which was unexpected and carded a 78 on it as well. Putted much better but it was a tight course with lots of hazards so I had a couple penalty strokes.

thegooddoctor, I like your idea of a net system. It evens the playing field in terms of dollar amount, so that high cappers have just as good of a chance of being the money leader as the low cappers. For me personally though, there would be too much to keep up with for me to manage that thread. I like the simplicity of this system. With a net system it would depend on HI's as well as course ratings, slopes, course handicaps, etc. I like that idea and would likely participate if such a thread was started, but I do not want to be manager of it. I like this way where people can say "I'll break 80" and they either do or don't.

[eagle1997]

tournament round on saturday. tough course, fast sloping greens, lots of trouble off the tee. par is 71, rating 72, slope 136. coming off of my worst monday league 9 holes in 2+ years (45-ugh), i'm still going low with an uber-optimistic prediction of sub-80. the recent handicap update puts me at a 7.8, for a CH of 9 - so i have to beat that in order to win.

a good bet for both sides.

[eagle1997]

Job done. 77. 2-2 in this challenge!

[Maddog10]

Waiting for a couple scores to come in from the weekend and then the double-update will be posted. I forgot to make a prediction this week but did get an even par 72 round in yesterday at one of the local country clubs. Not going to count it though as I did not make my prediction. Hope everyone played well over the weekend.

[Maddog10]

Here are the week 3 results...

 

 

The "1"s shown in white are rounds that I haven't heard back from yet, so they are just neutral and not counted as a win or loss at this point.

[GGMUFrost]

Sorry, I forgot to post, we ended up not getting to play Sunday due to some family stuff. I would like to predict sub 80 for this Saturday though.

[deadsolid...shank]

Here are the week 3 results...

 

 

The "1"s shown in white are rounds that I haven't heard back from yet, so they are just neutral and not counted as a win or loss at this point.

 

Maddog, you've got one of the white "1" in my column under "under 85". I don't think it factors in but I think that is someone else's prediction.

 

Anyway, played the best ball portion of a different course Sunday. Forgot to come in and make my bet. Finally played well and would have made it comfortably. Kind of like my fantasy baseball teams, almost always choose wrong.

 

Oh well, tomorrow again. Regular course, staying with the under 80 bet.

[joey2aces]

ok, so I have 1 maybe 2 rounds tomorrow at Turning Stone in Verona, NY... depending on how my playing partner feels we will be playing Shenendoah first and Adunyote right after. If we play the whites I will bet 250 under 80.... If we play the blues I will bet 250 under 85 at Shenendoah.

At Adunyote we will play the blues simply because whenever I play a PGA Tour destination I like to beat myself up. So I say 85 there as well.... for the 2nd 18. For $250.

[Maddog10]

[quote name='deadsolid...shank' timestamp='1404226482' post='9615571']
Maddog, you've got one of the white "1" in my column under "under 85". I don't think it factors in but I think that is someone else's prediction.

Anyway, played the best ball portion of a different course Sunday. Forgot to come in and make my bet. Finally played well and would have made it comfortably. Kind of like my fantasy baseball teams, almost always choose wrong.

Oh well, tomorrow again. Regular course, staying with the under 80 bet.
[/quote]

Yep, just looked back and it was supposed to be up a row in GGMUFrost's line. I removed it from yours but you're right, it doesn't effect anything record/money wise.

Good luck in your round tomorrow and also to joey2aces. Unfortunately I'm just keeping this spreadsheet for weekend rounds though. I think keeping it for everyone throughout the entire week would be too much for me. I play every day pretty much and I'm sure many of you play several times a week as well, so that would involve a lot of updating and trying to keep up with everyone. Just don't want people to get burnt out on the challenge, and I don't want to get burnt out either. If you guys are able to schedule a round for the weekend though just let me know and I'll put you down. The one round per weekend method keeps it easily manageable for me.

[eagle1997]

reposting these numbers, so i don't have to keep going back to page 1.
i am unable to play this weekend, have fun out there!

[u][b]- Under 70:[/b][/u] $2,000/$1,000

[u][b]- Under 75:[/b][/u] $1,000/$750

[u][b]- Under 80:[/b][/u] $500/$500

[u][b]- Under 85: [/b][/u] $250/$250

[u][b]- Under 90:[/b][/u] $100/$100

[u][b]- Under 95:[/b][/u] $50/$50

[u][b]- Under 100:[/b][/u] $20/$20

[u][b]- Under 120:[/b][/u] $5/$5

[Imp]

Can I get in? I'm a 12.3, so under 85.

--kC

[joey2aces]

[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404226775' post='9615619']
ok, so I have 1 maybe 2 rounds tomorrow at Turning Stone in Verona, NY... depending on how my playing partner feels we will be playing Shenendoah first and Adunyote right after. If we play the whites I will bet 250 under 80.... If we play the blues I will bet 250 under 85 at Shenendoah.

At Adunyote we will play the blues simply because whenever I play a PGA Tour destination I like to beat myself up. So I say 85 there as well.... for the 2nd 18. For $250.
[/quote]

ok, so we played neither of the two... we played Kaluhyat... the 3rd of the 18 hole courses at Turning Stone. I can't go back on my bet but probably would have said under 85 since I have never played the course and we played the blues (just like I said for Shenendoah)...... shot 82 from the blues..... up to you OP on how you wanna proceed.

that being said, I am playing Saturday and will bet $500 under 80

[eagle1997]

[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404391101' post='9629217']
ok, so we played neither of the two... we played Kaluhyat... the 3rd of the 18 hole courses at Turning Stone. I can't go back on my bet but probably would have said under 85 since I have never played the course and we played the blues (just like I said for Shenendoah)...... shot 82 from the blues..... up to you OP on how you wanna proceed.

that being said, I am playing Saturday and will bet $500 under 80
[/quote]

hey joey -

not the OP, but i just wanted to point out a couple things in case you missed his posts.

1. weekend rounds are the only ones you can 'bet' on
2. all bets are set amounts. winning amount/losing amount are predetermined.

OP, please correct me if i am incorrect! just trying to help.

i do wish there were bet amounts for every single number... i would stretch to a sub-78 or sub-77 round for the potential for more 'earnings,' but having only broken 75 twice in the past year, pretty much zero chance i go that low.

[Maddog10]

[quote name='Imp' timestamp='1404347676' post='9626869']
Can I get in? I'm a 12.3, so under 85.

--kC
[/quote]

Yep, everyone is welcome. I'll put you down. Good luck this weekend.

[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404391101' post='9629217']
[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404226775' post='9615619']
ok, so I have 1 maybe 2 rounds tomorrow at Turning Stone in Verona, NY... depending on how my playing partner feels we will be playing Shenendoah first and Adunyote right after. If we play the whites I will bet 250 under 80.... If we play the blues I will bet 250 under 85 at Shenendoah.

At Adunyote we will play the blues simply because whenever I play a PGA Tour destination I like to beat myself up. So I say 85 there as well.... for the 2nd 18. For $250.
[/quote]

ok, so we played neither of the two... we played Kaluhyat... the 3rd of the 18 hole courses at Turning Stone. I can't go back on my bet but probably would have said under 85 since I have never played the course and we played the blues (just like I said for Shenendoah)...... shot 82 from the blues..... up to you OP on how you wanna proceed.

that being said, I am playing Saturday and will bet $500 under 80
[/quote]

Nice round. Since it wasn't on the weekend it's a non-issue, it wouldn't have counted for you or against you either way. Maybe in the future I can revise the challenge to keep up with weekday rounds too, but for now it's just one round per weekend. That makes it simple and easy for me to keep up with. I know it's inconvenient for those that don't get a chance to play Fri-Sun on certain weekends, but for now I want to keep it restricted to weekends only. I know a lot of guys, myself included, play nearly every day and I think that would just be too much for me to keep up with at the moment, plus I think people would get tired of having to come post their predictions/scores every day.

[joey2aces]

[quote name='Maddog10' timestamp='1404391757' post='9629309']
[quote name='Imp' timestamp='1404347676' post='9626869']
Can I get in? I'm a 12.3, so under 85.

--kC
[/quote]

Yep, everyone is welcome. I'll put you down. Good luck this weekend.

[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404391101' post='9629217']
[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404226775' post='9615619']
ok, so I have 1 maybe 2 rounds tomorrow at Turning Stone in Verona, NY... depending on how my playing partner feels we will be playing Shenendoah first and Adunyote right after. If we play the whites I will bet 250 under 80.... If we play the blues I will bet 250 under 85 at Shenendoah.

At Adunyote we will play the blues simply because whenever I play a PGA Tour destination I like to beat myself up. So I say 85 there as well.... for the 2nd 18. For $250.
[/quote]

ok, so we played neither of the two... we played Kaluhyat... the 3rd of the 18 hole courses at Turning Stone. I can't go back on my bet but probably would have said under 85 since I have never played the course and we played the blues (just like I said for Shenendoah)...... shot 82 from the blues..... up to you OP on how you wanna proceed.

that being said, I am playing Saturday and will bet $500 under 80
[/quote]

Nice round. Since it wasn't on the weekend it's a non-issue, it wouldn't have counted for you or against you either way. Maybe in the future I can revise the challenge to keep up with weekday rounds too, but for now it's just one round per weekend. That makes it simple and easy for me to keep up with. I know it's inconvenient for those that don't get a chance to play Fri-Sun on certain weekends, but for now I want to keep it restricted to weekends only. I know a lot of guys, myself included, play nearly every day and I think that would just be too much for me to keep up with at the moment, plus I think people would get tired of having to come post their predictions/scores every day.
[/quote]

I hear ya... and sorry for not re-reading the rules....

So, then.... it will be $500 for under 80 Saturday, July 5

[Imp]

[quote name='Maddog10' timestamp='1404391757' post='9629309']
[quote name='Imp' timestamp='1404347676' post='9626869']
Can I get in? I'm a 12.3, so under 85.

--kC
[/quote]

Yep, everyone is welcome. I'll put you down. Good luck this weekend.[/quote]THanks, because I have a tourney Tomorrow and Sat/Sun is Club Championship qualifying.

--kC

[Maddog10]

[quote name='joey2aces' timestamp='1404392040' post='9629337']
I hear ya... and sorry for not re-reading the rules....

So, then.... it will be $500 for under 80 Saturday, July 5
[/quote]

No worries, I'll put ya down.

I'm heading out for a bachelor party this weekend, but I will have time to get a round in on Friday before we leave. I played pretty poorly yesterday, but I'm going to with [u][b]Under 75[/b][/u] anyways. I don't think I'll duplicate that poor performance from yesterday. I'd like to go with under 70, but after yesterday I'm not that confident.

[deadsolid...shank]

I did finally manage to sneak in under 80 yesterday but since it was a weekday round it doesn't count. Same place on Saturday so I'm sticking with my standard under 80 wager.

[Imp]

Today's tourney was rained out. Thanks Arthur!

The weekend, however, is shaping up to be beautiful.

--kC

[PapaJohick]

ok tomorrow is at Oak Point on Kiawah (it seems like Im one of the few members that likes this course haha) 70.5/135 tees and I will go with under 95 (big test for me as I have not gone under 100 there yet although I haven't played there since I have "found my swing" hahahahaha)

good luck to everyone out this this weekend!

[PapaJohick]

So played at turtle point instead and didn't get it done. One bad hole on the front and horrible 16,17,18 came in with a 100 boooooo haha. But oh well. Next weekend time to get back into the positive money haha

[deadsolid...shank]

[quote name='deadsolid...shank' timestamp='1404417014' post='9632399']
I did finally manage to sneak in under 80 yesterday but since it was a weekday round it doesn't count. Same place on Saturday so I'm sticking with my standard under 80 wager.
[/quote]

I made it this time. Despite doubling two par threes I managed a 78. Getting better, but not back where I want to be yet.

[Imp]

20 MPH winds from Arthur, and 2 balls OB put me at 87. :unamused:

--kC

[Maddog10]

[quote name='Maddog10' timestamp='1404392744' post='9629405']
I'm heading out for a bachelor party this weekend, but I will have time to get a round in on Friday before we leave. I played pretty poorly yesterday, but I'm going to with [u][b]Under 75[/b][/u] anyways. I don't think I'll duplicate that poor performance from yesterday. I'd like to go with under 70, but after yesterday I'm not that confident.
[/quote]

Played well this weekend and carded a 68 (-4). Had 6 birdies, no bogeys, and a double (out of bounds off tee.) I wanted to call the sub 70 but my iron play throughout the week was not up to my usual standards. It came around Friday morning though and gave me a lot of makeable birdie opportunities.

When a couple more scores come in I will post the weekly update. Also, I've added the dollar amounts associated with each category to the side of the scoreboard so that they should be easy to reference as long as a weekly update is on the forum page.

[Maddog10]

Here is the weekly update. Still a couple scores to be reported (shown in white) but I'll update it when they come in. Nice job to the winners, and better luck next week to those that weren't able to reach their goal. As I mentioned before, I've added the values for each goal at the bottom as a reference.

 

[eagle1997]

maddog - 68! damn bro. that is some really good playing. well done.

for me:
i have a 6:10am tee time at a local muni on saturday. par 72, rating 72.2, slope 124. long, but relatively straightforward. i will bet the 'under 80 $500.' now, based on my recent play, this is a bet i *should* win. it's a different kind of pressure. we'll see how it works out.

[EJ Mac]

Put me down for under 85. guestimated cap is 12.5, 70.7/123 6261yds.

[Maddog10]

[quote name='eagle1997' timestamp='1404836640' post='9659873']
maddog - 68! damn bro. that is some really good playing. well done.

for me:
i have a 6:10am tee time at a local muni on saturday. par 72, rating 72.2, slope 124. long, but relatively straightforward. i will bet the 'under 80 $500.' now, based on my recent play, this is a bet i *should* win. it's a different kind of pressure. we'll see how it works out.
[/quote]

Thanks for the kind words eagle. I played well last weekend... Good luck in your upcoming round. 6:10 is a very early tee time! I'm not sure I could swing a club that early haha. I'll mark ya down.


[quote name='EJ Mac' timestamp='1404837719' post='9659979']
Put me down for under 85. guestimated cap is 12.5, 70.7/123 6261yds.
[/quote]

Welcome to the club EJ. Glad you jumped in. I'll put you on the list.