The "How Confident Are You" Weekly Challenge

[Maddog10]

Theoretical scenario here:

 

You and I are making a wager. You are playing your normal weekend round this weekend, whether it be at your home course or elsewhere. You will play the tees that you always play, play the ball up or down (whichever you normally do), but all putts have to be holed. No gimmies. You can select from the following score ranges and their associated dollar amounts. The first dollar figure shows the amount you would win if you were to post a score below your selected choice, and the second represents the amount you would pay me if you shot over your choice... For the sake of keeping this fun, please select one that presents a challenge for you. For example, if you are a 5 handicap don't select the "Under 100" category so that the bet is a "sure win." I'm going to try to distribute the wages to keep people from doing this, but just play along.

 

 

- Under 70: $2,000/$1,000

 

- Under 75: $1,000/$750

 

- Under 80: $500/$500

 

- Under 85: $250/$250

 

- Under 90: $100/$100

 

- Under 95: $50/$50

 

- Under 100: $20/$20

 

- Under 120: $5/$5

 

 

 

*If you'd like, feel free to share your choice as well as the course rating and your handicap. What I would like to do is get people to post their selections, and then report back after they play Saturday morning (or whenever they play this weekend) and share if they would have won or lost. You can quote your message that showed which option you chose, and then post your score in the reply. I would like to see how I would come out if I made this wager to all you WRX guys. Of course, honesty is critical for this to be accurate, but everyone knows that WRX'ers never lie :rofl: . On Monday I would like to post a recap on this thread of how many bets were won and lost, along with how much profit/loss I ended up with. By allowing you to choose on your own, I expect I'll be owing quite a few people money, but we shall see. If participation seems promising I'll start a spreadsheet and track each participating user over the summer so you can see what your individual earnings/losses would have been this season.

 

**I want this based on a single-round, all or nothing, one bet per weekend type of thing so if you plan to play multiple rounds this weekend you have to select which one you want to bet on before hand. You can't select your best round of the weekend and post it unless it happened to be the one you previously chose to bet on. The weekend will begin on Friday morning and end on Sunday night so you may choose a round within those days to bet on. I will post the spreadsheet that shows the results on Monday.

 

So how confident are you???

[Maddog10]

I'll start...

I'm playing in a big tournament this weekend at a course I haven't played in a few years. I'll have a practice round Friday, then play Saturday and Sunday. To give myself better odds of getting familiar with the course, I'm going to choose my Sunday round. The course is rated 70.7 and I am a 1.6 handicap, so I am going to choose the [b][u]Under 75[/u][/b] category.... SHOW ME THE MONEY!

[ruascott]

Under 90. Index is 11.2. Course is 72.1/132. From those tees, seems I'm about 50/50 to be over/under 90.

Easier course, different story.

[RedDevilWheezy]

[u]I'd have to go with:[/u]

[u][b][u][u][b][u]- Under 90:[/u][/b][/u] $100/$100[/u][/b][/u] My HC hovers around a 15 and i've been playing terrible (mostly bad putting) for the last couple of months. On a good day i'll shoot 85ish and on a bad day 95+. Usually somewehere in between.

[BPinNC]

I'm about a 5 and I will take the under 70.... we're going to play the par 3 course.

[watch4sharx]

I'm a 13.3 after a ton of terrible rounds.

I choose under 85 because this year I never know what shot shape is going to show up. My home course is 70.9/131.

[jholz]

I am still in the 7 HDCP range and my home course rating is 69.8/128. I would be willing to go with the [b]Under 85[/b] bet. Its not a sure thing, but I should have a reasonable expectation of winning. Let's hope so at least.

[joey2aces]

Under 70..... do I have to disclose if I play a Par 3??

in all seriousness I am playing Saturday. Course I playing I will be an 8. Par 72. I will break 80.

[themightytimmah]

Put me down for 20 bucks...I'm streaky and my handicap reflects what I can shoot on a good day, not what I usually shoot on an average day on a tough course.

[someon3]

72.6
135
hdcp 1.1
1 time in almost two years I failed to break 80(shot 81). To be honest I'd struggle to bet -80 irl...for that kinda dough I'd choose -85 so I could sleep the night before and not poop myself on the 1st tee.




Played 6/6/2014
Shot 33 on the front (eagled the 1st and bogeyed 8). Was playing so well and was feeling I'd break par (as I do on about 40% of my rounds) for the first time in my life. Parred the first 4 on the back nine then mis clubbed on 14, the gps said 356 and 280 to water, I hit a 3 hybrid for safety which is my 215 off the tee club, through the fairway into the water, got it up n down for par. Lost it mentally and went bogey,par(missed 7 footer for birdie),bogey,double from middle of fairway on 18.....I felt like it was a waking nightmare. I know that's off topic but my heart was so broken I just needed to vent some.

[jholz]

Got you today man. crappy 82, but still lower than 85. Seems like someone owes me a bill. I'll pm you my paypal info.

[jlt73]

This would be kind of cool if it was a betting thing where if you lost you donate that to a charity. If you win then you get the satisfaction of winning

[Maddog10]

[quote name='jlt73' timestamp='1402141694' post='9447881']
This would be kind of cool if it was a betting thing where if you lost you donate that to a charity. If you win then you get the satisfaction of winning
[/quote]

That would be cool, but as a broke kid right out of college, I prefer to make bets with play money.

[joey2aces]

$500 please. (Played the black tees)

[TheDominator273]

I was a low single digit last year but if you were to make me bet on my game right now I would plop down $20 to break 100 and it would probably come down to the last few holes

[Maddog10]

I'll start...

 

I'm playing in a big tournament this weekend at a course I haven't played in a few years. I'll have a practice round Friday, then play Saturday and Sunday. To give myself better odds of getting familiar with the course, I'm going to choose my Sunday round. The course is rated 70.7 and I am a 1.6 handicap, so I am going to choose the Under 75 category.... SHOW ME THE MONEY!

 

I barely squeaked in with a win by carding a 74 on Sunday. Should have selected my Saturday round as it would have been a much more comfortable victory (68), but at the end of the day a win is a win.

 

Participation was pretty poor for week 1, but here are the results for those that have reported back. I'll keep it going for a couple weeks to see if things pick up, but if there's no interest I'll let it fade into the forum abyss.

 

 

[ABgolfer2]

I'll go with sub-70 for my round this Friday.

Does it matter that it's our annual work scramble?

[Maddog10]

[quote name='ABgolfer2' timestamp='1402327938' post='9459269']
I'll go with sub-70 for my round this Friday.

Does it matter that it's our annual work scramble?
[/quote]

Not as long as your playing partners don't mind you playing individual stroke play simultaneously during the scramble.

[ABgolfer2]

[quote name='Maddog10' timestamp='1402328271' post='9459321']
[quote name='ABgolfer2' timestamp='1402327938' post='9459269']
I'll go with sub-70 for my round this Friday.

Does it matter that it's our annual work scramble?
[/quote]

Not as long as your playing partners don't mind you playing individual stroke play simultaneously during the scramble.
[/quote]

With my second ball?

[Maddog10]

[quote name='ABgolfer2' timestamp='1402329697' post='9459553']
With my second ball?
[/quote]

Yes, it was kind of a joke because it's not likely you are going to scramble and play a second ball as stroke play at the same time. Scrambles do not qualify for this fake wager... If you plan to play an individual round Saturday or Sunday though then you could choose one of those.

[Free swingr]

Ok I'm going under 70. Playing in a tournament Saturday and Sunday so I will take Saturday as my wager round.
Course rating is 71.9 slope is 123
Hdcp is + 3

I'm curious what you are doing? Hope the info helps.

[jholz]

I am willing to stake myself to a sub-80 this weekend. Mark me down Maddog. FWIW I have found your idea to be a nice motivator. I'm sorry that more people haven't participated.

[skylargolf]

I'll take the bet for under 75. Probably going to play friday. Index is currently 2.2 so it is going to take a good round!

[kekoa]

Im stu. Will take the bet for under 75. This is a card from few weeks ago.

[attachment=2272605:image.jpg]

[Maddog10]

Got you guys marked down and will once again post results on monday. If you could quote your message whenever you post your score it will help keep everyone straight. Not a big deal really, just keeps me from having to search through the thread, although it is quite short right now. Since it was moved from the General Golf Talk section I don't expect attendance to pick up too much either.

I'll be playing this Saturday and am going to take the [u][b]Under 70[/b][/u] category along with Free swingr. Now that I have a little fake money to play with, I'm going to test my luck. Ambitious goal but I'm going for broke. Hope you guys play well and accomplish your goals. Good luck to those of you playing in tournaments. I originally planned on playing in another tournament this weekend but decided to take a week off from the competitive schedule.

[GGMUFrost]

I will play, handicap is 5.9 course is 73.3/133. I will go with under 80.

[deadsolid...shank]

I'm a six and in a large, large slump. But were playing an easier course tomorrow (69.7/119) so I'll take the under 80.

[eagle1997]

Under 80.
Tournament round on Saturday. Relatively short, but tough. Dunno the slope/rating off the top of my head, but it is a par 70.
Current index: 6.4
Course handicap: 6

The reason why this is a challenge to me is because I haven't broken 80 in a tournament since last year, I stopped being able to practice due to a new addition to the family, and I shot 84 on this exact course last year in a tournament.

Note: if there was an option for 78, I would have chosen that one as I am an optimistic fool when it comes to my golf game.

[Free swingr]

Hey maddog, just out of curiosity are trying to get some data for a new way of betting? If you don't want to disclose I totally understand. I would call myself a bit of a gambling man and I'm just intrigued with what you have on your mind. Not looking to steal your ideas or anything like that and if you don't want to discuss that's cool too. Good luck and I hope you come up with some good data. I will post my score Saturday afternoon. Tee time is 8:02 and unfortunately tournament rounds seem to take 6 hours these days. Gotta love slow play, grrrrr.

[Maddog10]

[quote name='Free swingr' timestamp='1402631578' post='9485271']
Hey maddog, just out of curiosity are trying to get some data for a new way of betting? If you don't want to disclose I totally understand. I would call myself a bit of a gambling man and I'm just intrigued with what you have on your mind. Not looking to steal your ideas or anything like that and if you don't want to discuss that's cool too. Good luck and I hope you come up with some good data. I will post my score Saturday afternoon. Tee time is 8:02 and unfortunately tournament rounds seem to take 6 hours these days. Gotta love slow play, grrrrr.
[/quote]

As much as I'd like to claim there was, there really isn't any statistical basis behind this idea. I just thought it could be kind of cool to call your round in a sense, and then see if you could go out and back it up. Also thought it would be fun to track on a spreadsheet with my fellow WRX'ers and see how everyone does over the course of a summer. How many times did you score below your projected score, how many times over, etc... I thought the money leader idea would be cool too, but I couldn't think of a good way to make people choose challenging scores unless I weighted the lower scores with more money so the money leader idea doesn't really work since it heavily favors the lower handicap player.

The idea kind of came from a betting game I used to play with my Saturday morning group. We would play 50 cent skins with carry-overs, but as a side bet on the first tee box you could bid for your round. We were all very equal in terms of ability, so everything was based off of gross scoring. One guy would say "I'll start at 78" for example, and then each person in the foursome would continue to bid back and forth claiming a lower score until nobody was comfortable going any lower. Each person chipped in an extra $3 aside from the skins game, and if the winner of the bid goes lower than the score he claimed, he won the pot. If not, he owed everyone else $3 each. So say for example the bid started at 78, then someone dropped out of the bidding at 75, then another dropped out at 73, and then me and the last guy bid it down to 71, which is a number that I claimed before the last guy says "Ok, you get it at 71." Then I have to shoot 71 or better to win the pot or I owe each of the other guys $3 each. It doesn't matter if I finish dead last in my group and we are all under 71, since I claimed it I still win that side-pot. It's a good way to tie confidence into the round, by seeing how low you are willing to go and still bet money on it.