At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

[ssf301]

Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

[Soloman1]

> @ssf301 said:

> Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

 

You might be surprised to know that the number of private clubs today is the same as the number during the Great Depression.

 

Private clubs never grew. In fact, many are at risk because they face the same, if not greater, financial pressures as public courses, since potential new members are worse off financially than the current member base

 

One of the paths to survival for private clubs is to convert to semi-private or public access. So there is nothing to support the prediction that private clubs will flourish.

[MountainGoat]

> @ssf301 said:

> Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

 

Close the thread. We have a winner!

[ssf301]

> @Soloman1 said:

> > @ssf301 said:

> > Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

>

> You might be surprised to know that the number of private clubs today is the same as the number during the Great Depression.

>

> Private clubs never grew. In fact, many are at risk because they face the same, if not greater, financial pressures as public courses, since potential new members are worse off financially than the current member base

>

> One of the paths to survival for private clubs is to convert to semi-private or public access. So there is nothing to support the prediction that private clubs will flourish.

 

Not surprised at all. Locally, it's the "marginal" clubs that are struggling and considering going semi-private or public access. Those clubs are likely to put the weaker public courses out. The elite clubs (financially speaking) are doing better. Many, many private clubs will fail along the way. It will trickle down with private clubs -> semi-private -> forcing some public ones out the bottom. There will always be exceptions of course.

[melo]

It has been fascinating to read some of the responses. Those that think golf is doing fine, or will do better as millennials age, I have a follow-up question. It seems this belief is based on the idea that income and time increase with age...basically people in their 40's and 50's will have more money due to more income and decreased expenditures, as well as more time as children are out of the house...HOWEVER, every data point shows that millennials buy houses later, have kids later, and get married later with MORE debt in their early years. It would seem then that they will NOT have more time or money until well into their retirement age (which the vast majority of them say they want to spend travelling, not golfing like baby boomers). Do any of you think that this presents a more substantial problem than you may have originally anticipated?

[CMCSGolf]

> @Soloman1 said:

> > @ssf301 said:

> > Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

>

> You might be surprised to know that the number of private clubs today is the same as the number during the Great Depression.

>

> Private clubs never grew. In fact, many are at risk because they face the same, if not greater, financial pressures as public courses, since potential new members are worse off financially than the current member base

>

> One of the paths to survival for private clubs is to convert to semi-private or public access. So there is nothing to support the prediction that private clubs will flourish.

 

This can't be true? The US population is about 3x what it was in 1929. If you're saying that the actual number of clubs is the same today as 1929, then this really means private golf has diminished greatly since the population is so much larger. I'd love to see the data on this, but I would assume the number of private clubs has increased (because of population growth), but perhaps it has not grown at the same rate as population.

[QuigleyDU]

> @melo said:

> It has been fascinating to read some of the responses. Those that think golf is doing fine, or will do better as millennials age, I have a follow-up question. It seems this belief is based on the idea that income and time increase with age...basically people in their 40's and 50's will have more money due to more income and decreased expenditures, as well as more time as children are out of the house...HOWEVER, every data point shows that millennials buy houses later, have kids later, and get married later with MORE debt in their early years. It would seem then that they will NOT have more time or money until well into their retirement age (which the vast majority of them say they want to spend travelling, not golfing like baby boomers). Do any of you think that this presents a more substantial problem than you may have originally anticipated?

 

I say let it decline. Less knuckleheads on the course that do not fix pitch marks or divots. More open tee times, it will have to get more affordable or disappear completely. Then it will rebound. Such are the cycles of everything. Look at champion clothing. In the 80s it was the good stuff, then it was on walmart shelves for pennies, now it is expensive and exclusive again.

[marmaduk]

I wonder how long desert courses are going to last assuming water is getting more expensive? The highest end and private stuff will be there for a long time but all the millions of Arizona and Nevada courses…?

[bub72ck]

> @melo said:

> Thank you all for your opinions and insights. I see a couple of trends in the posts...

>

>

>

> Some people don't think golf is really declining, or at least nothing other than a typical ebb and flow.

>

>

>

> Others of you think the cost of playing/equipment/etc is affecting play

>

>

>

> Some of you think courses will close.

>

>

>

> Do any of you think the following things are disrupting the market?

>

>

>

> The length of time it takes to play (not whether it takes 4 hours or 4:30, I simply mean the fact that it takes anywhere over 2 hours to play)

>

>

>

> The difficulty of learning and playing well

>

>

>

> The cost of lessons/instruction and lack of access to quality practice facilities?

 

The world moves at a much faster pace today than it did even 15 years ago. Technology has created a NOW mentality with everything we do. We no longer value 4 hours of time on the golf course but rather see it is a hindrance to the next activity or "thing" we could/should be doing. Also, golf is a very difficult game and most people will give up and move onto the next thing instead of learning how to play the game and practicing. The private country club, even one with low dues, has been replaced with a cattle call of cheap green fees where every penny is trimmed as much as possible. The average golfer often overlooks this or that in order to finish a little faster and play a little cheaper. In summary, golf has lost its value to the average person. In past years, we saw it as a means to teach life lessons; integrity, patience, respect, hard work, and dedication. Now its just another activity that takes time and money. The less of those two things that are spent, the better people feel they've made out.

[Soloman1]

> @CMCSGolf said:

> > @Soloman1 said:

> > > @ssf301 said:

> > > Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

> >

> > You might be surprised to know that the number of private clubs today is the same as the number during the Great Depression.

> >

> > Private clubs never grew. In fact, many are at risk because they face the same, if not greater, financial pressures as public courses, since potential new members are worse off financially than the current member base

> >

> > One of the paths to survival for private clubs is to convert to semi-private or public access. So there is nothing to support the prediction that private clubs will flourish.

>

> This can't be true? The US population is about 3x what it was in 1929. If you're saying that the actual number of clubs is the same today as 1929, then this really means private golf has diminished greatly since the population is so much larger. I'd love to see the data on this, but I would assume the number of private clubs has increased (because of population growth), but perhaps it has not grown at the same rate as population.

 

Well, it is true, according to the National Golf Foundation.

 

"On the eve of the Great Depression there were about 4,400 private golf clubs in America – about the same number that exist

today..." -- National Golf Foundation (https://www.leisurepropertiesgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/NGF-Future-of-Private-Golf-Clubs-in-America.pdf)

 

 

Today, there are 4,415 private clubs.

[Warrior42111]

> @bub72ck said:

> > @melo said:

> > Thank you all for your opinions and insights. I see a couple of trends in the posts...

> >

> >

> >

> > Some people don't think golf is really declining, or at least nothing other than a typical ebb and flow.

> >

> >

> >

> > Others of you think the cost of playing/equipment/etc is affecting play

> >

> >

> >

> > Some of you think courses will close.

> >

> >

> >

> > Do any of you think the following things are disrupting the market?

> >

> >

> >

> > The length of time it takes to play (not whether it takes 4 hours or 4:30, I simply mean the fact that it takes anywhere over 2 hours to play)

> >

> >

> >

> > The difficulty of learning and playing well

> >

> >

> >

> > The cost of lessons/instruction and lack of access to quality practice facilities?

>

> The world moves at a much faster pace today than it did even 15 years ago. Technology has created a NOW mentality with everything we do. We no longer value 4 hours of time on the golf course but rather see it is a hindrance to the next activity or "thing" we could/should be doing. Also, golf is a very difficult game and most people will give up and move onto the next thing instead of learning how to play the game and practicing. The private country club, even one with low dues, has been replaced with a cattle call of cheap green fees where every penny is trimmed as much as possible. The average golfer often overlooks this or that in order to finish a little faster and play a little cheaper. In summary, golf has lost its value to the average person. In past years, we saw it as a means to teach life lessons; integrity, patience, respect, hard work, and dedication. Now its just another activity that takes time and money. The less of those two things that are spent, the better people feel they've made out.

 

I agree with how some of us youngsters value time. Personally I see golf as a reprieve from the fast paced world. The money issue is real in some areas of the states. I live in Fl and in our high season winter I can still play a round at a semi private course for $40. I go home to MA in the summer and play with my dad. Semi private course are mostly $60 to $85. As an engineer I like to think I’m doing good financially, but how can the blue collar workers afford to take up the game?

[CMCSGolf]

> @Soloman1 said:

> > @CMCSGolf said:

> > > @Soloman1 said:

> > > > @ssf301 said:

> > > > Golf used to be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Eventually it will again be an elite private club sport played by a small demographic. Timing TBD.

> > >

> > > You might be surprised to know that the number of private clubs today is the same as the number during the Great Depression.

> > >

> > > Private clubs never grew. In fact, many are at risk because they face the same, if not greater, financial pressures as public courses, since potential new members are worse off financially than the current member base

> > >

> > > One of the paths to survival for private clubs is to convert to semi-private or public access. So there is nothing to support the prediction that private clubs will flourish.

> >

> > This can't be true? The US population is about 3x what it was in 1929. If you're saying that the actual number of clubs is the same today as 1929, then this really means private golf has diminished greatly since the population is so much larger. I'd love to see the data on this, but I would assume the number of private clubs has increased (because of population growth), but perhaps it has not grown at the same rate as population.

>

> Well, it is true, according to the National Golf Foundation.

>

> "On the eve of the Great Depression there were about 4,400 private golf clubs in America – about the same number that exist

> today..." -- National Golf Foundation (https://www.leisurepropertiesgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/NGF-Future-of-Private-Golf-Clubs-in-America.pdf)

>

>

> Today, there are 4,415 private clubs.

 

That's fascinating. Thanks for providing the source. So I would interpret the game being much more accessible today than 1929, since population is so much larger. Which I think makes sense, given we are far richer today so the "rich man's game" has slowly permeated to a larger share of the population.

[Soloman1]

But, once again, the game is in decline just like participation in all sports is in decline. Baseball, softball, football, basketball, soccer are all in decline with less youth participation.

 

The golf industry and media tries to keep a happy face, hoping people will take up golf if they read and hear happy news of others playing golf.

 

Just a decade ago, a "golfer" was defined as someone who played eight times per year. Now, anyone who goes to a TopGolf once in their lifetime is defined as a golfer. Take the kids to miniature golf? You're a golfing family.

 

 

All of the reasons people can come up with for the decline in golf are usually valid. There is no single reason. Well, I'll correct that and say the 20%-80% rules for people still applies. 20% of people are rational and have some ability to think. 80% of people are dumber than a stick and shouldn't even be allowed to drive.

[Man_O_War]

year 2069 : The Masters : Fire up your computers boys and girls.