Playing off the low or giving back strokes in match play

[ShupeSC]

Just now, nsxguy said:

 

Well, I guess I'm reading the links I gave you wrong.

 

In the examples there, it doesn't seem to matter whether anyone's a plus or not. Or how many pops anybody gets.

 

According to those links, unless I'm reading them incorrectly, the "other 3" are getting the difference between their PH and the low guy's whether the low guy is plus or not.

 

Other than the PH calculation the other 3 are getting 1 or more shots on the toughest holes according to the card.

 

I see nothing about any "choices" so I guess I'm just not understanding that part of your issue.

Lol. I know the rules. I’m curious about the strategy.  There is no choice in the rules and you always play off the low.  

This is just how our club does it. 

There was another post on the forum a while back that discussed the 1v1 match play. 2v2 best ball is where it is really complicated and that is what i’m trying to figure out. 

The basis is what is more advantageous for a plus handicap? Play off the low or give a bunch of strokes back. 

 

[Mudguard]

1 minute ago, ShupeSC said:

When you are a deeply plus handicap it matters a lot.  Double pops and hole difficulty of auto losses makes the difference.

The proper way of playing it means Mr Plus goes to zero, gives twenty shots to Mr Ten. Gives one shot on sixteen holes and two shots on the hardest two. So the result is, Plus has to be one shot better on sixteen holes, and two better on two holes

Your way means Mr Ten gets strokes on the ten hardest holes, two of which Mr Plus will have to birdie, and then when Mr Ten runs out of shots (ranked 10-18) Mr Plus still has to make eight birdies anyway. So the result is, Plus still has to be one shot better on sixteen holes and two better on two holes.

I know what you mean, your way wants the two shots given on two holes to be stroke holes 9 and 10, whereas the proper way should be 1 and 2. Why would the higher handicapper want the help on random holes?

 

[ShupeSC]

1 minute ago, Mudguard said:

The proper way of playing it means Mr Plus goes to zero, gives twenty shots to Mr Ten. Gives one shot on sixteen holes and two shots on the hardest two. So the result is, Plus has to be one shot better on sixteen holes, and two better on two holes

Your way means Mr Ten gets strokes on the ten hardest holes, two of which Mr Plus will have to birdie, and then when Mr Ten runs out of shots (ranked 10-18) Mr Plus still has to make eight birdies anyway. So the result is, Plus still has to be one shot better on sixteen holes and two better on two holes.

I know what you mean, your way wants the two shots given on two holes to be stroke holes 9 and 10, whereas the proper way should be 1 and 2. Why would the higher handicapper want the help on random holes?

 

As has been stated on here before and in another forum post I don’t feel like finding: you want to give the majority of strokes back on the holes with the highest range of scores. For example on our course it’s the higher rated/easiest holes.

You want to give to give fewer strokes on the low variance holes.

therefore it is advantageous for the plus to give strokes back on the easy holes and not play off the low.

 

it gets really complicated with 2v2 best ball. The 2v2 format lowers the variance on the high variance holes and limits the higher scores on hard holes.  And your partner is affected by your choice. 
 

this may be way to complicated to figure out a general rule for 2v2, but I thought I would see if someone could figure it out. 

[nsxguy]

2 minutes ago, ShupeSC said:

As has been stated on here before and in another forum post I don’t feel like finding: you want to give the majority of strokes back on the holes with the highest range of scores. For example on our course it’s the higher rated/easiest holes.

You want to give to give fewer strokes on the low variance holes.

therefore it is advantageous for the plus to give strokes back on the easy holes and not play off the low.

 

it gets really complicated with 2v2 best ball. The 2v2 format lowers the variance on the high variance holes and limits the higher scores on hard holes.  And your partner is affected by your choice. 
 

this may be way to complicated to figure out a general rule for 2v2, but I thought I would see if someone could figure it out. 

 

So you already know the answer.

 

If it's more advantageous to YOU, pick THAT option.

 

As for your last paragraph, sorry, I can't help you.

 

Later

[ShupeSC]

Just now, nsxguy said:

 

So you already know the answer.

 

If it's more advantageous to YOU, pick THAT option.

 

As for your last paragraph, sorry, I can't help you.

 

Later

Thanks. Sorry kind of a hard thing to explain because it doesn’t come up that often.

[Mudguard]

16 minutes ago, ShupeSC said:

You want to give the majority of strokes back on the holes with the highest range of scores. For example on our course it’s the higher rated/easiest holes.

You want to give to give fewer strokes on the low variance holes.

therefore it is advantageous for the plus to give strokes back on the easy holes and not play off the low. 

And this is where it gets silly. It's essentially going to be random depending on you handicaps of the day, your opponents handicaps on the day. So you go with the known quantity, which is, if you are lower handicap than your opponent, you are supposed to give them their strokes on the harder rated holes.

Whereas doing incorrectly means the strokes could fall wherever. I guess the other critical part of this is that while most golf courses try pretty hard to lay out their ratings in the proper order, IE odds and evens, splitting the hard holes between front and back, not finishing with difficult holes etc, it isn't perfect. 

Matchplay is different too, it may be the easiest hole on the course and I don't have to give my opponent a stroke, but if he hits it OB with his tee shot I might put drive back in the bag and hit an iron. Whereas strokeplay probably driver every time. 

 

I still think this comes back to what happens if the two teams can't agree which to choose?

[ShupeSC]

9 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

And this is where it gets silly. It's essentially going to be random depending on you handicaps of the day, your opponents handicaps on the day. So you go with the known quantity, which is, if you are lower handicap than your opponent, you are supposed to give them their strokes on the harder rated holes.

Whereas doing incorrectly means the strokes could fall wherever. I guess the other critical part of this is that while most golf courses try pretty hard to lay out their ratings in the proper order, IE odds and evens, splitting the hard holes between front and back, not finishing with difficult holes etc, it isn't perfect. 

Matchplay is different too, it may be the easiest hole on the course and I don't have to give my opponent a stroke, but if he hits it OB with his tee shot I might put drive back in the bag and hit an iron. Whereas strokeplay probably driver every time. 

 

I still think this comes back to what happens if the two teams can't agree which to choose?

This is where it gets a little more weird at our club.  It’s on the plus handicap to choose. If there is no plus handicap then groups usually don’t play off the low and just play to whatever the handicaps are. Guys are to lazy to play off the low and then do a separate card for skins and overall team stuff. 
 

I have to go out of my way to choose to play off the low, giving back shots is the default lol.

 

I’m pretty new to all the handicap shenanigans at this club, I’m used to doing everything straight up. 

[Mudguard]

3 minutes ago, ShupeSC said:

This is where it gets a little more weird at our club.  It’s on the plus handicap to choose. If there is no plus handicap then groups usually don’t play off the low and just play to whatever the handicaps are. Guys are to lazy to play off the low and then do a separate card for skins and overall team stuff. 
 

I have to go out of my way to choose to play off the low, giving back shots is the default lol.

 

I’m pretty new to all the handicap shenanigans at this club, I’m used to doing everything straight up. 

Skins and team stuff make it even more convoluted. What happens if one player needs to make a putt to win the skins, but has two putts to halve the hole? Hits it six foot past trying to win the skin them misses the return putt to lose the hole?

[davep043]

Club games and multiple formats certainly confuse the issue, but when I read the OP, it sounded like he was trying to swing the odds in his favor, as compared to the proper (by the Rules) way of playing.  It sounds to my as if the low handicappers at the club have been the ones who decide  the club rules, and they've chosen to give low handicappers the choices to pick non-standard ways of allocating strokes.  That's pretty typical, in my experience, low handicappers distrust the handicap system, so when they can't simply play even up against inferior players, they try to change the rules to give themselves the advantage.  In this case, it doesn't sound like the OP was one of those who made these rules, he's just trying to figure out how to take advantage of them.  We all do the same within the Rules of Golf, so its natural to do it with handicapping too.

To the OP, I don't think it really makes much difference in the match play outcomes.  I have some vague memory of reading a study that came to that conclusion, I wish I could find a reference to provide.  I see this as two players, each of whom will play some holes well and some holes poorly, in a relatively random pattern.  A 20 handicap may make a par on the #1 handicap hole, and he may make a triple on the #18, that's the nature of the game.  A Plus may bogey the #18 and birdie the #1 hole, or it might be the other way around.  There's no question that the order of allocating  strokes may change the outcome of an individual match, but I don't believe it will make a difference in the percentage of matches won by either player.  The low handicapper will still have a very small advantage, over the long run.

[rogolf]

It's up to the Committee in charge to confirm that strokes will be allocated according to the "Rules", and that is playing off the lowest handicap in the group.  Then there are no other "choices" provided to players.

It's distasteful when  players try to arrange affairs to their own personal advantage (whether they are low, mid or high handicappers).

 

Edited April 10, 2022 by rogolf

[SNIPERBBB]

11 hours ago, ShupeSC said:

you want to give the majority of strokes back on the holes with the highest range of scores. For example on our course it’s the higher rated/easiest holes.

You want to give to give fewer strokes on the low variance holes.

I rather think this is a flawed strategy.  Id rather survive giving strokes on the "low variance" holes for the high caps because you're going to have to do something special on those holes to win or just tie it off. IE the par 4 5th at our course is a PITA. Its uphill all the way, >20yd fairway and the further off the fairway you are the steeper the hill gets on each side and trees interfere on pretty much every possible shot unless you  carry it it 300 and you hit the fairway. Green is >8yards deep and 30yrds long. Hit the green and its a tricky par. Miss the green and double is all but guaranteed as you cant even guarantee your chip will even get on or stay on the green. I give two strokes all day long on that hole rather than Give back strokes on the par 4 8th that is a 150 yard drive to leave a 80 yard approach shot.  high cap can make birdie as easy as they can bogey. Id rather not force myself to have to make birdie just to tie 80% of the time.

Edited April 7, 2022 by SNIPERBBB

[ShupeSC]

9 minutes ago, rogolf said:

It's up to the Committee in charge to confirm that strokes will be allocated according to the "Rules", and that is playing off the lowest handicap in the group.  Then there are no other "choices" provided to players.

It's distasteful when  players try to arrange affaris to their own personal advantage (whether they are low, mid or high handicappers).

 

Lol. Calm down. As it has been stated before I know the rules.  The default is to give strokes back, which is against the rules you speak of.  I can choose to play off the low if I want.  That’s how our games work.  It’s a simple question of what is the best strategy for 2v2 best ball.

[ShupeSC]

2 minutes ago, SNIPERBBB said:

I rather think this is a flawed strategy.  Id rather survive giving strokes on the "low variance" holes for the high caps because you're going to have to do something special on those holes to win or just tie it off. IE the par 4 5th at our course is a PITA. Its uphole all the way, >20yd fairway and the further off the fairway you are the steeper the hill gets on each side and trees interfere on pretty much every possible shot unless you. Green is >8yards deep and 30yrds long. Hit the green and its a tricky par. Miss the green and double is all but guaranteed as you cant even guarantee your chip will even get on or stay on the green. I give two strokes all day long on that hole rather than Give back strokes on the par 4 8th that is a 150 yard drive to leave a 80 yard approach shot.  high cap can make birdie as easy as they can bogey. Id rather not force myself to have to make birdie just to tie 80% of the time.

That’s where it depends on the course. The high rated/easy holes at our course are brutal long par 3s with hazards, 2 drivable par 4s with hazards, and a par 5 that is easy to get to in 2 with water and OB on each side. The range of scores is huge, and I’d rather give shots back on those holes than the holes that are just long par 4s which are mostly our low rated/harder holes.

[ShupeSC]

1 hour ago, davep043 said:

Club games and multiple formats certainly confuse the issue, but when I read the OP, it sounded like he was trying to swing the odds in his favor, as compared to the proper (by the Rules) way of playing.  It sounds to my as if the low handicappers at the club have been the ones who decide  the club rules, and they've chosen to give low handicappers the choices to pick non-standard ways of allocating strokes.  That's pretty typical, in my experience, low handicappers distrust the handicap system, so when they can't simply play even up against inferior players, they try to change the rules to give themselves the advantage.  In this case, it doesn't sound like the OP was one of those who made these rules, he's just trying to figure out how to take advantage of them.  We all do the same within the Rules of Golf, so its natural to do it with handicapping too.

To the OP, I don't think it really makes much difference in the match play outcomes.  I have some vague memory of reading a study that came to that conclusion, I wish I could find a reference to provide.  I see this as two players, each of whom will play some holes well and some holes poorly, in a relatively random pattern.  A 20 handicap may make a par on the #1 handicap hole, and he may make a triple on the #18, that's the nature of the game.  A Plus may bogey the #18 and birdie the #1 hole, or it might be the other way around.  There's no question that the order of allocating  strokes may change the outcome of an individual match, but I don't believe it will make a difference in the percentage of matches won by either player.  The low handicapper will still have a very small advantage, over the long run.

If you have the choice you would swing it in your favor also. The low guy in the group has the choice in our games because guys don’t want to keep multiple cards to keep track of all the skins and overall games.

[SNIPERBBB]

7 minutes ago, ShupeSC said:

That’s where it depends on the course. The high rated/easy holes at our course are brutal long par 3s with hazards, 2 drivable par 4s with hazards, and a par 5 that is easy to get to in 2 with water and OB on each side. The range of scores is huge, and I’d rather give shots back on those holes than the holes that are just long par 4s which are mostly our low rated/harder holes.

I think you're missing the point. The one or two holes where you're giving double strokes to aren't going to break you in a match. Giving extra stokes on easy holes makes it harder on you.  Net skins is a different ball game.

[davep043]

3 minutes ago, ShupeSC said:

If you have the choice you would swing it in your favor also. The low guy in the group has the choice in our games because guys don’t want to keep multiple cards to keep track of all the skins and overall games.

I'm not saying you're wrong to make the best choice for you, no more than you'd be wrong for utilizing the Rules of Golf to your advantage when possible.  If I'm bashing anyone, I'm bashing the guys who put those rules into place.

But if all of your other games, like skins among multiple groups, are played off full strokes (I mean with a scratch player getting zero strokes), wouldn't it actually be easier to require all matches to also be played off full strokes (so plus players "add" handicap strokes on a few holes), rather than allow each group to choose differently?  That would be clean and consistent, even if its not the way the Rules recommend allocating strokes.  The only reason to allow the low handicapper to define the situation for each group is to allow the low handicapper to give himself what he perceives is the best chance of winning.  And those kinds of rules are generally rules put into place by the lower handicap players.

And I know I said up there the rules "recommend" that players get strokes off the low ball in match play.  The Rules of Golf don't say anything about this, and the Handicapping Rules, in Appendix C, give this method as the general way things are done, but its not a requirement.

[ShupeSC]

1 minute ago, SNIPERBBB said:

I think you're missing the point. The one or two holes where you're giving double strokes to aren't going to break you in a match. Giving extra stokes on easy holes makes it harder on you.  Net skins is a different ball game.

I see what you are saying, but easy doesn’t really apply.  I can make eagles/birdies and they make bogeys and doubles on these holes often.  
 

The lowest 4 rated long par 4s I rarely birdie, maybe 3/10 rounds. They rarely make doubles cause there is little trouble on those holes and the tees are way forward from where I play from. 
 

I can easily make up the double stroke holes on the easy holes and even win some, but if I give 2 back on the low variance it’s an auto loss where the outcome a majority of the time is a tie.

 

The other thing that complicates things is pressed. If someone presses on my auto loss holes it puts me in a hole where being able to tie more often gives me a better spot to bet from.

[ShupeSC]

Edited the original post to fix the confusion and clarify.  Apologies for the poorly written  first attempt. 

[nsxguy]

1 hour ago, ShupeSC said:

Edited the original post to fix the confusion and clarify.  Apologies for the poorly written  first attempt. 

 

Let me ask you something.

 

Since you realize you have the choice to tilt the game in your favor, have you ever "lobbied" the committee/your fellow players/whoever, to do the game the way the rules recommend and not give anybody any choice in the matter ?

 

(You know, like "this ain't right guys, let's just do it the way the rules recommend")

[ShupeSC]

3 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

Let me ask you something.

 

Since you realize you have the choice to tilt the game in your favor, have you ever "lobbied" the committee/your fellow players/whoever, to do the game the way the rules recommend and not give anybody any choice in the matter ?

 

(You know, like "this ain't right guys, let's just do it the way the rules recommend")

They would laugh if I asked. It’s just about having fun and drinking. No one cares, it’s been the same for 20+ years. I could care less, I’m just interested in the strategy which I find interesting to think about.  As I stated before it’s not official, it’s just a group of 20-40 guys that play 4 times a week. 

[Mudguard]

4 hours ago, nsxguy said:

 

Let me ask you something.

 

Since you realize you have the choice to tilt the game in your favor, have you ever "lobbied" the committee/your fellow players/whoever, to do the game the way the rules recommend and not give anybody any choice in the matter ?

 

(You know, like "this ain't right guys, let's just do it the way the rules recommend")

Yeah I'd be asking why the low marker gets to choose...

 

That said, as the OP has alluded to, there seem to be multiple formats being played at once, which doesn't lend itself to genuine matchplay. After all, we all know we treat a slippery six footer in strokeplay differently than we do for a half in matchplay. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by Mudguard

[davep043]

4 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Yeah I'd be asking why the low marker gets to choose...

Unless I was the low marker, of course.  That's why I'm guessing that at one time, the better players were the ones making the rules, and they made this one to give themselves a little more edge.  Otherwise, the simplest way is to always mark the cards the same way, for both in-foursome games as well as the big-group games.

[nsxguy]

On 4/7/2022 at 12:52 PM, ShupeSC said:

They would laugh if I asked. It’s just about having fun and drinking. No one cares, it’s been the same for 20+ years. I could care less, I’m just interested in the strategy which I find interesting to think about.  As I stated before it’s not official, it’s just a group of 20-40 guys that play 4 times a week. 

 

Seriously, what's "it's not official" even mean ? You're playing for cash, right ? "No one cares" ? I want to play with those guys (not you though).

 

Perhaps no one cares because no one knows better ?

 

I play weekly in this stupid game where handicaps can be adjusted downwards up to 6 SHOTS for 1 great net round and can only go UP 1 shot IF one shoots a net of +3 or worse.

 

I asked why to the 2 guys who brought the game over to this course when their old course folded and their answer was "We've always done it that way"  Now how can ANYBODY argue with That "logic" ?

 

The only reason I play in that game is that while I am at a terrible disadvantage against a group of mostly high handicappers, I have an advantage at the skins and closest to the pins - so I figure net-net maybe it works out.

 

But I'd take some $ odds that some/many/most of your group, upon learning there's an advantage gained against them (they most likely have no idea since it's "for fun" ), would be at least somewhat triggered.

 

On 4/7/2022 at 10:28 AM, ShupeSC said:

If you have the choice you would swing it in your favor also. The low guy in the group has the choice in our games because guys don’t want to keep multiple cards to keep track of all the skins and overall games.

 

 

That's an assumption on your part. And, FWIW, frankly I don't think dave would have made the same choice as you.
 
 

On 4/7/2022 at 10:45 AM, davep043 said:

I'm not saying you're wrong to make the best choice for you, no more than you'd be wrong for utilizing the Rules of Golf to your advantage when possible.

 
Nor are you saying he's right.

 

On 4/7/2022 at 11:04 AM, ShupeSC said:

Edited the original post to fix the confusion and clarify.  Apologies for the poorly written  first attempt. 

 

My friend, it seems to me that IF you were just looking for opinions on strategy you would have phrased the entire original post quite a bit differently - even left yourself out of it entirely. <--- THAT is the best way to get totally honest and objective points of view.

 

To me, it seems you are looking for approval and/or confirmation for choosing something you clearly "know" is to your advantage,,,,,,,,, just because you can.
 
@rogolfsaid, it's "distasteful". I think he was being kind. I'm quite sure there are others around, similar to rogolf, that would use some,,,,,,,,,, ummmmm,,,,,,,,, less kindly words.

 

But I've been wrong before.

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by nsxguy

[StudentGolfer4]

Schupe, when was the last time your course was rated for handicap? It’s possible I don’t understand handicaps the way I think I do, but shouldn’t the lowest handicapped holes, say 1-3, have the highest variance in scores and the highest holes 16-18 have the lowest variance?

 

Someone chime in if I’m wrong, but the lowest handicap hole is assigned based on where the higher handicap player will most need a stroke, correct? The idea that the higher handicapped holes have a large variance doesn’t seem to go with the way holes are handicapped. 

[nsxguy]

15 minutes ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

Schupe, when was the last time your course was rated for handicap? It’s possible I don’t understand handicaps the way I think I do, but shouldn’t the lowest handicapped holes, say 1-3, have the highest variance in scores and the highest holes 16-18 have the lowest variance?

 

Someone chime in if I’m wrong, but the lowest handicap hole is assigned based on where the higher handicap player will most need a stroke, correct? The idea that the higher handicapped holes have a large variance doesn’t seem to go with the way holes are handicapped. 

 

I think, but am not sure, what he means by variance is from the lowest score to the highest on a particular hole - as opposed to the average.

 

If so, I believe he'd rather give strokes on an easier hole, say the 16th handicap hole, that often generates scores from birdie 2 to triple bogey 6 (figure a par 3), rather than the 4th rated hole, a tough par 4, that averages 4.7 strokes but seldom generates more than a few double bogies.

 

I think that's what he's getting at.

[Newby]

9 hours ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

Schupe, when was the last time your course was rated for handicap? It’s possible I don’t understand handicaps the way I think I do, but shouldn’t the lowest handicapped holes, say 1-3, have the highest variance in scores and the highest holes 16-18 have the lowest variance?

 

Someone chime in if I’m wrong, but the lowest handicap hole is assigned based on where the higher handicap player will most need a stroke, correct? The idea that the higher handicapped holes have a large variance doesn’t seem to go with the way holes are handicapped. 

Courses are rated for Course Difficulty. Holes are not rated. 

There are many conventions for assigning a Stroke Index to holes. Some are based on relative difficulty based on returns from all players. Some on high cappers, some on low cappers. Others are based on different factors including format of play.

However WHS is now recommending a standard system for all courses and formats of play. This is explained in Appendix E of the WHS manual.

[davep043]

26 minutes ago, Newby said:

Courses are rated for Course Difficulty. Holes are not rated. 

Actually, each hole is rated for the a theoretical "scratch golfer" and a "bogey golfer".  The individual hole ratings are combined to calculate the course's Course Rating and Slope Rating.  The WHS in Appendix E, as you quite correctly point out, recommends a standardized procedure, which uses the individual hole ratings as a significant factor in determining the stroke index allocation.  

[Newby]

1 hour ago, davep043 said:

Actually, each hole is rated for the a theoretical "scratch golfer" and a "bogey golfer".  The individual hole ratings are combined to calculate the course's Course Rating and Slope Rating. 

That is of course correct, I was oversimplifying. 

 

I was surprised to see the reference to Scratch and Bogey Values in the appendix.

In England (and maybe CONGU in general) the individual hole values are not normally published, even to the club.

I don't know if the WHS platform has this level of detail stored but I am not aware of any of the 'front-end' Independent Software Vendors (ISVs) that have updated their calculations as they certainly don't have access to the hole rating data.

Do you know if WHS itself has the facility to do the calculation prior to the allocation itself? 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by Newby

[ShupeSC]

On 4/7/2022 at 10:45 AM, davep043 said:

I'm not saying you're wrong to make the best choice for you, no more than you'd be wrong for utilizing the Rules of Golf to your advantage when possible.  If I'm bashing anyone, I'm bashing the guys who put those rules into place.

But if all of your other games, like skins among multiple groups, are played off full strokes (I mean with a scratch player getting zero strokes), wouldn't it actually be easier to require all matches to also be played off full strokes (so plus players "add" handicap strokes on a few holes), rather than allow each group to choose differently?  That would be clean and consistent, even if its not the way the Rules recommend allocating strokes.  The only reason to allow the low handicapper to define the situation for each group is to allow the low handicapper to give himself what he perceives is the best chance of winning.  And those kinds of rules are generally rules put into place by the lower handicap players.

And I know I said up there the rules "recommend" that players get strokes off the low ball in match play.  The Rules of Golf don't say anything about this, and the Handicapping Rules, in Appendix C, give this method as the general way things are done, but its not a requirement.

You attribute malice where I say laziness. 

[ShupeSC]

14 hours ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

Schupe, when was the last time your course was rated for handicap? It’s possible I don’t understand handicaps the way I think I do, but shouldn’t the lowest handicapped holes, say 1-3, have the highest variance in scores and the highest holes 16-18 have the lowest variance?

 

Someone chime in if I’m wrong, but the lowest handicap hole is assigned based on where the higher handicap player will most need a stroke, correct? The idea that the higher handicapped holes have a large variance doesn’t seem to go with the way holes are handicapped. 

Depends on the course. Our course has water and/or OB on 17/18 holes.  Easy holes at our course still allow you to post doubles/net doubles.