Class of 2025 on Deck

[golferdad8]

1 hour ago, toulucalakegolf said:

 

You stated that 2026 was better then 2024.  That is a very ignorant comment.  

 

There are kids that are 2024 in Asia, Europe and other countries like South Africa that are not ranked and better then those 2026 kids.

 

Agree 100%.

Many top schools including Cal, NU, Pepperdine, Duke (took twins from Scotland for 2024), etc. have recruited unranked JGS players (some with very strong WAGR rankings) so comparing 2024 to 2026 list is not apples to apples. Conversely, some of the ranked international players with high JGS rankings don't do well in the US when academic pressure kicks in. At the rate JGS is going, I think the top ranked list might end up by being like Mel Kiper's football draft...and be a poor barometer for predicting future top college and pro players. 

[golferdad8]

2 hours ago, tssgj65 said:

One of the most important areas beyond talent is; does the kid really love the grind or have their current circumstances/situation created the environment for improvement, they have maxed, and the college environment won't get them more/necessary improvement.  Have the parents driven too much and the kid has enjoyed playing success at the current level - but do they really, really love it and have what it takes to continue to improve and mesh with 21-23 year olds when they get to college.  Also are they mature enough to handle all of the responsibilities required of college and avoid all the distractions of the college environment.

 

ALL kids say they love it and they are the hardest worker!  Everyone.  If anyone could accurately measure the "LOVE IT" factor they would make millions explaining how to assess this to coaches in all sports!!!!

Love your comment - 100% accurate, and not just in golf.

Look at Steph Curry - he has talent for sure, but many teammates attribute his success in large part to the fact that he LOVES to practice and get better. The outcome is the outcome, but he doesn't let the outcome define how much he LOVES to practice getting better. 

[wegobomber31]

6 hours ago, iteachgolf said:

Actually it’s not.  I’ve been doing this a long time and teach several of the top 2024s. And I can tell you 2026 and 2027 is stronger.  I can also tell you that many college coaches feel the same way and are setting up recruiting to have more money in those years. 

This is really where the rubber meets the road. Obviously coaches are looking at all those intangibles that have been mentioned in this thread but at the end of the day they might have to decide on going all-in on 2025 kids or holding back with plans to go deeper in 2026. It is literally their job to do all of that forward looking projection over what these kids will look like in 4-7 years. 
 

ratings aside, it certainly looks like 2026 kids are faring very well head-to-head against classes ahead of them, which usually isn’t the case. And from what I’ve observed, some is from kids who aren’t nearly as physically developed as their older counterparts. So if somebody is already out competing older kids mostly on skill, wouldn’t you believe they would continue that trend as their physical traits advance?

 

(Look, I understand there are 100 reasons why some kid might not pan out in the end. That’s golf and youth sports in general.)

I know the 2023 class is strong, so what happens when these kids go to college. Could the next three years be largely dominated by a really strong 2026 class?

 

[allenartlab]

On 6/8/2023 at 3:52 AM, wegobomber31 said:

I looked at the AJGA eligible events from 2023 so far by class and showed the percentage of rounds played (Open, Invitational and National events) and the percentage of “AJGA points” (the sliding scale they use for determining strength of field, i.e. 10 for 1st, 9 for 2nd etc…). It’s not surprising that 2023 class would have an outsized share of points relative to rounds played, but 2026 looks really strong already. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. 
 

 

Very nice data. Could you elaborate on the meaning of % of Rounds? Say there are 10 tournaments each with field size 100. Thus the total number of rounds is 10x100x3 (assuming each tournament has 3 rounds no cuts). Then class 2023 players played 31.9% of the 3000 rounds. Is my understanding correct? May I ask how you get the data? 

[wegobomber31]

1 hour ago, allenartlab said:

Very nice data. Could you elaborate on the meaning of % of Rounds? Say there are 10 tournaments each with field size 100. Thus the total number of rounds is 10x100x3 (assuming each tournament has 3 rounds no cuts). Then class 2023 players played 31.9% of the 3000 rounds. Is my understanding correct? May I ask how you get the data? 

your assumption is correct. I just took the leaderboard for all of the AJGA-points eligible events in 2023 year to date and that’s the % of rounds played by a given graduation year. I only focused on Open, Invitational and National events that get AJGA points (Dustin Johnson, Scott Robertson, etc)

 

This is obviously dynamic over the course of the year as eventually 2023 grads will start focusing on college and many have shifted to amateur events already. But I could probably look at the previous year at the same time Point (Jan-Jun 1) for comparison. 
 

there is a little bit of self selection involved as you have to be a pretty good 2026-28 kid to get into these early year events, so the data may be skewed in their favor. That’s why a year over year comparison through the same time stamp would be insightful. 

[Medson]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:40 PM, iteachgolf said:

2026 and 2027 are a lot stronger than 2024

What about class of 2030? 

Asking for a friend. 🙂

[allenartlab]

On 6/7/2023 at 3:40 PM, iteachgolf said:

2026 and 2027 are a lot stronger than 2024

What about class of 2025? How does it stack up against 2024? 

[wegobomber31]

On 6/10/2023 at 6:36 PM, allenartlab said:

What about class of 2025? How does it stack up against 2024? 

I saw this on Twitter.  This is player's overall JGS rank by class as of June 1st after their freshman year.

 

2025 looks pretty similar to 2024 at that same timestamp.

 

  

[John119]

1 hour ago, wegobomber31 said:

I saw this on Twitter.  This is player's overall JGS rank by class as of June 1st after their freshman year.

 

2025 looks pretty similar to 2024 at that same timestamp.

 

  

Who is posting this on Twitter? Where did you find? So interesting!

[golferdad8]

2 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

I saw this on Twitter.  This is player's overall JGS rank by class as of June 1st after their freshman year.

 

2025 looks pretty similar to 2024 at that same timestamp.

 

  

 

Very interesting list. In looking a the 2023 and 2024 after 9th grade, one observation is obvious - for the top 50 players, over half of these players will no longer be there by 11th grade. Heck, over half the top 10 will be lucky to be top 50 by 11th grade. Furthermore, half of these top 50 players will no longer be in the top 100 players. Because the # of JGS boys almost triples from beg of 9th grade to the end of 11th grade, unless they continue to get better and have better scoring differentials, the majority of top 50 player will drop in ranking. 

[iteachgolf]

On 6/10/2023 at 7:36 PM, allenartlab said:

What about class of 2025? How does it stack up against 2024? 

I was gonna say probably slightly better than 2024 but overall similar.  

[golferdad8]

11 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

I saw this on Twitter.  This is player's overall JGS rank by class as of June 1st after their freshman year.

 

2025 looks pretty similar to 2024 at that same timestamp.

 

  

 

I should also add, many coaches pay more attention to Rolex & WAGR rankings than JGS so this is only one of many metrics that matter. Further, many top players who are either home schooled or have mediocre grades...they don't have a chance at their first choice colleges. 

[jigsaw1011]

51 minutes ago, golferdad8 said:

 

I should also add, many coaches pay more attention to Rolex & WAGR rankings than JGS so this is only one of many metrics that matter. Further, many top players who are either home schooled or have mediocre grades...they don't have a chance at their first choice colleges. 

Being homeschooled does not necessarily put you at a disadvantage for college acceptance.  We have homeschooled my son since K (just finishing grade 10)and know many homeschoolers who went to their top choice very competitive school.

[John119]

2 hours ago, golferdad8 said:

 

I should also add, many coaches pay more attention to Rolex & WAGR rankings than JGS so this is only one of many metrics that matter. Further, many top players who are either home schooled or have mediocre grades...they don't have a chance at their first choice colleges. 

@golferdad8 What are you basing your thoughts on home schooled kids not having their chance at their first choice colleges? Mediocre grades I understand can cause problems. 

 

[wegobomber31]

On 6/8/2023 at 5:52 AM, wegobomber31 said:

I looked at the AJGA eligible events from 2023 so far by class and showed the percentage of rounds played (Open, Invitational and National events) and the percentage of “AJGA points” (the sliding scale they use for determining strength of field, i.e. 10 for 1st, 9 for 2nd etc…). It’s not surprising that 2023 class would have an outsized share of points relative to rounds played, but 2026 looks really strong already. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. 
 

 

Here's the update with the comparison of last year through the same time period (first week of January). Not sure if one can read too much into this but a trend over a longer time period would be interesting.  

 

 

 

 

[allenartlab]

On 6/13/2023 at 1:21 PM, wegobomber31 said:

Here's the update with the comparison of last year through the same time period (first week of January). Not sure if one can read too much into this but a trend over a longer time period would be interesting.  

 

 

 

 

Nice update. Most of AJGA tournaments are played in the summer (June/July/August). Do you have data that includes summer events?

[MahalNeneng]

On 6/12/2023 at 8:14 AM, golferdad8 said:

 

I should also add, many coaches pay more attention to Rolex & WAGR rankings than JGS so this is only one of many metrics that matter. Further, many top players who are either home schooled or have mediocre grades...they don't have a chance at their first choice colleges. 

 

Not sure where you getting that information regarding homeschooling, my son has been homeschooled since 3rd grade and has excellent grades, dual-credit courses, all the standardized testing and ACT scoring to back it up. As i stated before we reached out to 50+ schools and to this date 9 days into recruiting the boy has had calls with at least 20 coaches and has them scheduled out for the next week. He is actually on the phone right now with a top 15 school. As far as I am aware the coaches get the transcripts and get them to the admin side of the org, they deal with the NCAA as far as eligibility (you also submit them to the portal) if they NCAA says your eligible then you are, then like any other prospective student you have to pass their requirements for admission.

[golferdad8]

11 hours ago, MahalNeneng said:

 

Not sure where you getting that information regarding homeschooling, my son has been homeschooled since 3rd grade and has excellent grades, dual-credit courses, all the standardized testing and ACT scoring to back it up. As i stated before we reached out to 50+ schools and to this date 9 days into recruiting the boy has had calls with at least 20 coaches and has them scheduled out for the next week. He is actually on the phone right now with a top 15 school. As far as I am aware the coaches get the transcripts and get them to the admin side of the org, they deal with the NCAA as far as eligibility (you also submit them to the portal) if they NCAA says your eligible then you are, then like any other prospective student you have to pass their requirements for admission.

 

Congratulations to your son as it sounds like he's doing great. 

 

I should clarify that my statement said home school "or" mediocre grades - not "AND." 

Depending on your definition of a top 15 school (I did not refer to top golf ranking schools as there are 50 schools who believe they're a top 20 program), my statement will not apply to you at all. Also, this has nothing to do with NCAA - it's all about the specific school's admissions. 

 

What I was referring to are the top academic schools - and I'm sharing this to help young players with their potential target list. 

If you take a look at the Ivies, Stanford, or even the top D3 US News colleges (Pomona, Amherst, Williams, Carnegie Mellon), I doubt there's a single home school kid on their roster. From my contacts, I've heard many coaches who want top 10 or top 20 JGS ranked golfers but their experience has been that the home school recruits didn't pass admissions. In fact, it's gotten worse recently after the Varsity Blues scandals where a strong recruit can go through the pre-read, gets the "green light" AND receive the likely letter, only to get denied by admissions when the final results come out. 

 

Good luck to your son as it looks like he's on a great path. 

[MahalNeneng]

On 6/24/2023 at 10:28 PM, golferdad8 said:

 

Congratulations to your son as it sounds like he's doing great. 

 

I should clarify that my statement said home school "or" mediocre grades - not "AND." 

Depending on your definition of a top 15 school (I did not refer to top golf ranking schools as there are 50 schools who believe they're a top 20 program), my statement will not apply to you at all. Also, this has nothing to do with NCAA - it's all about the specific school's admissions. 

 

What I was referring to are the top academic schools - and I'm sharing this to help young players with their potential target list. 

If you take a look at the Ivies, Stanford, or even the top D3 US News colleges (Pomona, Amherst, Williams, Carnegie Mellon), I doubt there's a single home school kid on their roster. From my contacts, I've heard many coaches who want top 10 or top 20 JGS ranked golfers but their experience has been that the home school recruits didn't pass admissions. In fact, it's gotten worse recently after the Varsity Blues scandals where a strong recruit can go through the pre-read, gets the "green light" AND receive the likely letter, only to get denied by admissions when the final results come out. 

 

Good luck to your son as it looks like he's on a great path. 

I would agree with all of that and would probably say that the home school kids we know wouldn’t pass that muster as well. We took a very regimented approach to ours. My son wants to make it on tour (most of them do) and will have his college as a solid backup. We didn’t speak with Stanford from a purely $$$ perspective, and the boy has not been super excited about west coast schools.

[John119]

A 

Edited July 6, 2023 by John119

[wegobomber31]

On 6/8/2023 at 10:49 AM, golferdad8 said:

Agree 100%.

Many top schools including Cal, NU, Pepperdine, Duke (took twins from Scotland for 2024), etc. have recruited unranked JGS players (some with very strong WAGR rankings) so comparing 2024 to 2026 list is not apples to apples. Conversely, some of the ranked international players with high JGS rankings don't do well in the US when academic pressure kicks in. At the rate JGS is going, I think the top ranked list might end up by being like Mel Kiper's football draft...and be a poor barometer for predicting future top college and pro players. 

 

Couldn't the same thing be said about 2026 International kids? I mean one kid not on JGS any longer is a 2026 who made the cut in a DP world tour event a couple years ago and is currently 204th in the world in WAGR.  I have to believe there's a pipeline of international kids every year.

[Tugu]

9 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

 

Couldn't the same thing be said about 2026 International kids? I mean one kid not on JGS any longer is a 2026 who made the cut in a DP world tour event a couple years ago and is currently 204th in the world in WAGR.  I have to believe there's a pipeline of international kids every year.

True there is a serious amount of talent globally. But not all of them want to attend a US college to play a limited schedule.

 

Min Woo Lee, Cam Smith and a bunch of Korean players come to mind when thinking of overseas talent that choose a different path.

 

My dual citizen boy and I are debating this issue right now (older bro plays D1). The Australian high performance program wants their kids to study the HSC. Though it's possible to then translate the results to the US if needed, different schools in different states have very different rules that makes the choice kinda clear, US college or not.

[golferdad8]

On 7/6/2023 at 7:51 PM, wegobomber31 said:

 

Couldn't the same thing be said about 2026 International kids? I mean one kid not on JGS any longer is a 2026 who made the cut in a DP world tour event a couple years ago and is currently 204th in the world in WAGR.  I have to believe there's a pipeline of international kids every year.

Most smart coaches know WAGR is easy to game, especially in Asia. We’ve watched many of these top players (who get into US Jr Am & IMG) who rank higher than top college D1 players but these kids can’t even make top 5 at the AJGA events. Further, most will not be able to cut it academically at top 50 US news colleges, so I wouldn’t place much weight on wagr without having more data. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by golferdad8

[wegobomber31]

14 hours ago, golferdad8 said:

Most smart coaches know WAGR is easy to game, especially in Asia. We’ve watched many of these top players (who get into US Jr Am & IMG) who rank higher than top college D1 players but these kids can’t even make top 5 at the AJGA events. Further, most will not be able to cut it academically at top 50 US news colleges, so I wouldn’t place much weight on wagr without having more data. 

I don't disagree with you at all.  Rampant WAGR gaming/inflation is unlikely in the case in the example I listed -- a European player who used to be top 5 in his class before rolling off from not having enough junior events.  He's more than holding his own against pro's and other older competition in Europe.

 

My reply was simply in response to someone saying you can't compare 2024 vs. 2026 because 2024 has lots of international kids who are better than many in the 2026 class.  My only response is every class is going to have international kids, and there are likely some good ones in the 2026 class as well.  

 

 

[John119]

7 hours ago, Neverstop said:

Until 2026 every class is competing with the class 4 years before them.

 

So unless your beating seniors in college you likely are not getting offers.

 

 

 

 

 

 

This makes no sense at all? What do you mean?  Why would you not get an offer unless you are beating seniors in college? Not too many opportunities to even play with College seniors.  I don't think you are very knowledgeable on the subject of College recruiting. 

[leezer99]

2 hours ago, John119 said:

This makes no sense at all? What do you mean?  Why would you not get an offer unless you are beating seniors in college? Not too many opportunities to even play with College seniors.  I don't think you are very knowledgeable on the subject of College recruiting. 

Don’t engage. Poster is a known troll. 

[wegobomber31]

Interesting breakdown of wins in AJGA events, year over year. 
 

 

[leezer99]

6 hours ago, wegobomber31 said:

Interesting breakdown of wins in AJGA events, year over year. 
 

 

Just boys, just girls or both?

[wegobomber31]

6 hours ago, leezer99 said:

Just boys, just girls or both?

Boys

[j.b.newton]

On 5/27/2023 at 9:09 AM, iteachgolf said:

My point was that compared to almost all D2 schools, power 5 D1 schools will offer a better education AND better playing opportunities.  It covers both the student and athlete part.  When you add in PGATOURU and NIL deals (which top transfers are getting large NIL offers) it’s a no brainer.  If D2 decides to make it harder to transfer many players will choose to go to low ranked D1 and transfer vs top ranked D2.  

This part is HIGHLY debatable.  Prestige and potentially more open doors/contacts/opportunities - yes.  Education - not always.  In fact, I would argue that the EDUCATION/TEACHING part is probably better at the smaller schools.   Those schools usually have undergraduate classes taught by faculty (not Grad Asst).  Those faculty are usually more focused on teaching and not the research/scholarship/grant components that the larger/R1 type schools are.  The smaller schools usually have much smaller class sizes that allow for more personable interaction with the students.  All of those lead to a better educational/pedagogical experience for the students.  

 

My experience is as an athlete at both types, grad student at both types, faculty at both types, admin at both types.

Edited August 4, 2023 by j.b.newton