Cage Match to the DEATH: LPGA Tour vs. Middle-aged Scratch and Below

[Yuck]

20 hours ago, Forged4life said:

I swear they never actually apply PCC  played the same course one day 30 mph wind, next day no wind. Same rating etc. and obviously windy day was way tougher 

If you had a bunch of older, roll it along the ground 28 cappers play that day at the club, and shoot the same scores they usually do, that would explain it.  The actual posted scores in aggregate have the be higher by a statistically higher margin.  Some of those low ball hitting, bad putters are not phased by wind and still shoot 120 anyway, just like on a nice day.

[kevinmdowney]

Read through quite a few responses. Some have got it right - tour ladies overall are going to win vs scratch men. The girls have a more honed game to play under pressure. They play golf for a living. And they are all plus handicaps.

 

Now that said, the longer the course, things start to tilt. What that yardage is I don’t know. But at upper 6000s I think it starts to even out. Get into the 7000s and guys start to gain an advantage.

 

[Argonne69]

6 hours ago, kevinmdowney said:

Read through quite a few responses. Some have got it right - tour ladies overall are going to win vs scratch men. The girls have a more honed game to play under pressure. They play golf for a living. And they are all plus handicaps.

 

Now that said, the longer the course, things start to tilt. What that yardage is I don’t know. But at upper 6000s I think it starts to even out. Get into the 7000s and guys start to gain an advantage.

 

In the four years since this thread started, the LPGA players have increased their driving distance. The top players are now averaging over 270 yds. There are 25 players at 270 or better. The median is now 259 yds. I think the average pro would have no problem at 7000 yds. I've watched the pros hit hybrids and long irons for years with laser like precision. I'd take a pro with a hybrid hitting the green over a 4 cap with a 7 iron eight days a week. 

 

The median scrambling percentage on tour is 58%. Don't recall seeing too many 4 caps get up and down close to that number. The 4 cap would have to hit something like 14 greens to have a chance. 

 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Argonne69

[kevinmdowney]

1 hour ago, Argonne69 said:

 

In the four years since this thread started, the LPGA players have increased their driving distance. The top players are now averaging over 270 yds. There are 25 players at 270 or better. The median is now 259 yds. I think the average pro would have no problem at 7000 yds. I've watched the pros hit hybrids and long irons for years with laser like precision. I'd take a pro with a hybrid hitting the green over a 4 cap with a 7 iron eight days a week. 

 

The median scrambling percentage on tour is 58%. Don't recall seeing too many 4 caps get up and down close to that number. The 4 cap would have to hit something like 14 greens to have a chance. 

 

Agree in general - but original post was scratch and below (plus handicaps). That’s a lot stronger than a 4 handicapper. Women would drill mid-single digit handicap men all day.

[Shilgy]

17 hours ago, kevinmdowney said:

Agree in general - but original post was scratch and below (plus handicaps). That’s a lot stronger than a 4 handicapper. Women would drill mid-single digit handicap men all day.

And there is nothing about going to a longer course that makes the scratch better than the lady pros.  Better is better.

[kevinmdowney]

1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

And there is nothing about going to a longer course that makes the scratch better than the lady pros.  Better is better.

Well if scratch and below men, then going to hit it further. Obviously men hold advantage at 175+ approach shots. They’ll get home a lot more on 5s. 
 

women still better short game. 
 

But at 7,000 yards, guys are going to have slight advantage. I think they have clear advantage when you get to 7,300 yards and up.

 

but mid 6,000s and below, advantage ladies.

Edited June 12, 2022 by kevinmdowney

[Shilgy]

21 minutes ago, kevinmdowney said:

Well if scratch and below men, then going to hit it further. Obviously men hold advantage at 175+ approach shots. They’ll get home a lot more on 5s. 
 

women still better short game. 
 

But at 7,000 yards, guys are going to have slight advantage. I think they have clear advantage when you get to 7,300 yards and up.

 

but mid 6,000s and below, advantage ladies.

Hers the way I look at it….YMMV

 

Let’s  pick a fairly difficult course….7200 par 72 rated at 75.5.  Sound about right?  That means your scratch golfer….the guy that is a 0.0 index….wil average approximately 78.5 and shoot 75.5 about 20% of the time.  You don’t think an LPGA pro would beat that more times than not?

Edited June 12, 2022 by Shilgy

[kevinmdowney]

3 hours ago, Shilgy said:

Hers the way I look at it….YMMV

 

Let’s  pick a fairly difficult course….7200 par 72 rated at 75.5.  Sound about right?  That means your scratch golfer….the guy that is a 0.0 index….wil average approximately 78.5 and shoot 75.5 about 20% of the time.  You don’t think an LPGA pro would beat that more times than not?

I will certainly meet you part-way here. 
 

If comparison is ONLY scratch golfers against the better/longer female tour players, then you are correct.

 

But if you say scratch or better males - say average is +1.5 to +2, and it’s against the AVERAGE female tour player - then I think guys win that by a hair.

 

The average female tour player - on your course example - is not going to be a plus handicap. I’d say more like scratch on average.

[Shilgy]

4 minutes ago, kevinmdowney said:

I will certainly meet you part-way here. 
 

If comparison is ONLY scratch golfers against the better/longer female tour players, then you are correct.

 

But if you say scratch or better males - say average is +1.5 to +2, and it’s against the AVERAGE female tour player - then I think guys win that by a hair.

 

The average female tour player - on your course example - is not going to be a plus handicap. I’d say more like scratch on average.

Average Angel Yin?  #92 in scoring average on the year at 72.107.

Her estimated GHIN would be about +3.0 .   That is using a, likely low, mens course rating of 71.0 and using low 8 of last 20.  She averages 272 off the tee….not as far as she can hit it…just the average.

 

How would she fare against a +1.5 to +2 at 7200 in your opinion?

 

Twp things at play here imo.  First is we normally look at the scoring average for the ladies and think they are not that good.  Thinking surely a +2 is better than a player averaging 72.107….right?  According to the USGA the +2 will average about 3 strokes over that so 1 over the course rating…approximately.  Second is we tend…seems to be especially prevalent when guys look at ladies stats…o think driving average is as far as they can hit it. Granted the measured holes are usually driver but even pros have good and bad drives.  She can likely move it more than that and would not struggle from 7200 at all.  
 

In short…from virtually any distance, virtually meaning lack of forced carries,  a +2 is going to be better than a scratch at any yardage.  I doubt @Obeethinks he can’t beat a zero cap just because the other guy is longer and they play a long course.

[Argonne69]

43 minutes ago, kevinmdowney said:

I will certainly meet you part-way here. 
 

If comparison is ONLY scratch golfers against the better/longer female tour players, then you are correct.

 

But if you say scratch or better males - say average is +1.5 to +2, and it’s against the AVERAGE female tour player - then I think guys win that by a hair.

 

The average female tour player - on your course example - is not going to be a plus handicap. I’d say more like scratch on average.

 

Huh? The median LPGA pro averages 71.8 in tournament conditions. Best 8 is likely 69. That's easily a (men's) +3. Yardage is immaterial. 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Argonne69

[lchang]

This kind of thing probably doesn’t happen to your average LPGA pro?  https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/34065325/just-how-difficult-qualify-us-open-scratch-weekend-golfer-finds-out

[JungleJimbo]

On 6/12/2022 at 3:57 AM, Argonne69 said:

 

In the four years since this thread started, the LPGA players have increased their driving distance. The top players are now averaging over 270 yds. There are 25 players at 270 or better. The median is now 259 yds. I think the average pro would have no problem at 7000 yds. I've watched the pros hit hybrids and long irons for years with laser like precision. I'd take a pro with a hybrid hitting the green over a 4 cap with a 7 iron eight days a week. 

 

The median scrambling percentage on tour is 58%. Don't recall seeing too many 4 caps get up and down close to that number. The 4 cap would have to hit something like 14 greens to have a chance. 

 

Does anyone know what Michael Ray’s handicap is? (ie the country singer celebrity who recently played alongside LPGA pros in the Hilton Grand Vacations tournament of champions)... context/details per the tweet below

 

https://www.hgvlpga.com/participant/michael-ray/

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by JungleJimbo

[mosesgolf]

The LPGA gals are much better than most give them credit for and the guys are not as good as they think they are…

 

 

[mosesgolf]

2 hours ago, JungleJimbo said:

Does anyone know what Michael Ray’s handicap is? (ie the country singer celebrity who recently played alongside LPGA pros in the Hilton Grand Vacations tournament of champions)... context/details per the tweet below

 

https://www.hgvlpga.com/participant/michael-ray/

 

 

Smoltz’ score is a big surprise.  

[ThinkingPlus]

13 minutes ago, mosesgolf said:

Smoltz’ score is a big surprise.  

Bad hip.  Getting it replaced soon.

[TLUBulldogGolf]

I guess length is a factor but even then you are looking at a subset of scratch golfers as the average scratch handicap isn't hitting it 300 yards. 

 

On 6/13/2022 at 9:53 AM, lchang said:

This kind of thing probably doesn’t happen to your average LPGA pro?  https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/34065325/just-how-difficult-qualify-us-open-scratch-weekend-golfer-finds-out

 

I'm sure it's been pointed out over and over in the thread but a non-tournament tested scratch has no chance. 

Edited January 24, 2023 by TLUBulldogGolf