NFL Weekly Picks 2023

[touch]

Annie is home with family and then traveling this week so she won't be making her weekly recap post. 

[NJBigFish22]

2 minutes ago, touch said:

Annie is home with family and then traveling this week so she won't be making her weekly recap post. 

Disappointed doesn’t begin to describe my feelings on this!

[touch]

Our Picks  Week 17 

 

P3P           Atlanta             Houston            SEA/PGH  Over 

 

 

 

 

Lines for Picks       Week 17 

 

Thursday

NY Jets                         at                   Cleveland -7 1/2            36

 

Saturday

Detroit                         at                    Dallas -6 1/2                   53 1/2 

 

Sunday

New England              at                    Buffalo -12                     40 1/2 

Carolina                      at                    Jacksonville -6 1/2        37 1/2

New Orleans              at                     Tampa -3                       42 1/2

Atlanta                        at                     Chicago -3                     39

Tennessee                 at                      Houston -3 1/2              42 1/2

Arizona                      at                      Philadelphia -10 1/2       47 1/2

San Fran -13 1/2        at                     Washington                   48 1/2

Miami                          at                     Baltimore -3                  47

LA Rams -6 1/2          at                     NY Giants                      42

Las Vegas                  at                     Indy-3                            44

Pittsburgh                  at                     Seattle -3 1/2                41 1/2

LA Chargers               at                    Denver -5 1/2                38 1/2

Cincinnati                   at                     Kansas City -7 1/2        45 1/2

Green Bay                  at                    Minnesota -1 1/2            46

 

 

NO Monday Night Game 

 

 

 

Overall Standings Week 16

 

180 Pts - NCLancer

149 Pts - NSX

                Doc

144 Pts - CHuntsman

139 Pts - NJBF

132 Pts - P3P

131 Pts - imKirby

114 Pts - Chisag

107 Pts - QQQ

100 Pts - DMM

89 Pts - Touch

72 Pts - TripleLindy

 

[touch]

3 minutes ago, NJBigFish22 said:

Disappointed doesn’t begin to describe my feelings on this!

 

 

Well then, wow you are bad off. So in an effort to lessen your suffering Big Fish here is a current little something from the blonde bombshell from Michigan who lives in Chicago and is a Packer fan.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by touch

[NCLancer]

13 minutes ago, touch said:

 

 

Got it. Thanks for the explanation. 

[doctoro]

I have been digesting all of the PP dialogue.  I am a little ADHD over the course of my life so pardon my lack of attention to detail. When I play hold em with guys that work with numbers all the time I am at a huge disadvantage. But they are also when they can’t wrap their minds around my ability to bluff and change tactics during a tournament…I won a local tournament once. My life’s highlight. LOL. 
I don’t play anymore. But it was fun about 10 or so years ago.  
 

This is the amount of data I have gathered. Now pardon my lack of understanding if I miss anything. I think I read that we have up to 4PP’s?  
I keep seeing people’s names posted who are eligible. What does that mean? 
I have seen posts with stats with and without the PP.

Without it many of us would not be doing as well.  
Myself included. 
I look at it this way. 
When a Vegas handicapper posts winning percentages they look at it in terms of unit. 
A unit represents a set amount of money that you bet based on their conviction of their pick.  When they tell you to bet units that’s a clue as to how much they believe in that pick.  Usually predicated by line movement and how Vegas set the opening line. 

The PP is worth 20pts? So that would be a 4 unit bet. 
I feel like if you lose that bet you should deduct 4 units.  But the rules are all the same for everyone so no issues from me.  
If you read the idiot newspaper articles these guys put out Best bets and their winning percentage on Best Bets is usually but not always a tad higher than their picks. 

All I am saying is that I have no issues with the PP

Its kinda like playing poker with wild cards, after a busy night at the restaurant, and winning everyone’s tip outs after a busy shift and then some sore loser complaining about bad beats because you win with a one eyed Jack and a suicide king.  
 

I think the PP is designed to make it more entertaining over the year. 
I have been on both sides of the gimmick game. 
In years past the gimmicks did me wrong this year they have been beneficial. 
I would like to think this is a good dry run if I ever decide to open up another betting account with a Sportsbook. I did not bet once this year. 
I have not watched a game from beginning to end once this year. 
I have seen half’s here and there but that’s about it.  A little red zone while preparing food in the kitchen.  
I don’t wear an apron though. 
 

PS I think I have one PP left. But is there a game out there that’s worth 4 units? 
Where is Jimmy the Greek when you need him? 

 

[touch]

My college Bowl Game Picks Week 3 

 

Let's do a lucky 13 this week. 

 

 

SMU  -10

 KSU  -2.5     

ARIZONA - 3  

CLEMSON  -4  

IOWA ST.  -10    

MISSOURI / OSU  Over  49.5

MISSOURI +1 

MARYLAND +7     

WYOMING  -3.5    

LSU  -10  

LIBERTY / OREGON  Over 67.5

BAMA +2 

TEXAS  -4.5  

 

 

 

Photo 

U of Missouri Cheerleaders 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by touch

[NJBigFish22]

Time for more college picks.

 

I am going to pick them all.  This will either boost the record or destroy it.  I could give a quick take on each game, but honestly don't follow some of these teams and with players sitting out and coaches leaving, it's a crap shoot at times.

 

SMU -10

Rutgers/Miami Under

NC State +2.5

Arizona -3

Kentucky +4

Oregon St./ND Over

Memphis +10

Missouri +1

Ole Miss +3.5

Auburn -7

Georgia -16.5

Toledo/Wyoming Over

LSU -10

Iowa +8.5

Bama +2

Texas -4.5

[chisag]

6 hours ago, doctoro said:

Its kinda like playing poker with wild cards, after a busy night at the restaurant, and winning everyone’s tip outs after a busy shift and then some sore loser complaining about bad beats because you win with a one eyed Jack and a suicide king.  

 

 

... Pretty much how I see it. No secret I am not a fan. Less skill and more luck. Don't know if I have said this before but I think it's like hitting into a divot off the tee. I don't like it but the rules say play it as it lies so that's what I do. There is a difference between not liking it and not accepting it. I mentioned my dislike earlier in the season and found I was a minority of one 🤪 so it immediately ceased to be an issue for me. So sure I would be in the lead without it but nobody forced me to use my PP even though it was against my better judgement, so that is 100% on me. I have always felt it is counter productive to play coulda, woulda, shoulda. Next year I won't use the PP and I'll see if that is a tactical error or stealthy maneuver. 

[Double Mocha Man]

3 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... Pretty much how I see it. No secret I am not a fan. Less skill and more luck. Don't know if I have said this before but I think it's like hitting into a divot off the tee. I don't like it but the rules say play it as it lies so that's what I do. There is a difference between not liking it and not accepting it. I mentioned my dislike earlier in the season and found I was a minority of one 🤪 so it immediately ceased to be an issue for me. So sure I would be in the lead without it but nobody forced me to use my PP even though it was against my better judgement, so that is 100% on me. I have always felt it is counter productive to play coulda, woulda, shoulda. Next year I won't use the PP and I'll see if that is a tactical error or stealthy maneuver. 

 

Perhaps next year there could be two games?? The Skill game and the Skill + Additional Features game.  Just thinking out loud. Pick your subset.

[chisag]

2 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Perhaps next year there could be two games?? The Skill game and the Skill + Additional Features game.  Just thinking out loud. Pick your subset.

 

 

... I actually like the idea of not using the PP against those that do. I normally don't bet on parlays because even though the reward is huge, the punishment for missing one game is too great for my tastes. But I do well with single game bets. Yet I know folks that only bet parlays because they aren't interested in betting $10 to win $8.21  Fwiw I don't bet when I play golf. It is a bad combination for me since I don't like taking friends money and I don't like giving them mine. 🤷‍♂️

[Double Mocha Man]

1 minute ago, chisag said:

 

 

... I actually like the idea of not using the PP against those that do. I normally don't bet on parlays because even though the reward is huge, the punishment for missing one game is too great for my tastes. But I do well with single game bets. Yet I know folks that only bet parlays because they aren't interested in betting $10 to win $8.21  Fwiw I don't bet when I play golf. It is a bad combination for me since I don't like taking friends money and I don't like giving them mine. 🤷‍♂️

 

I play against several of my golf buddies for a dime. For those less affluent we play for a nickel.  It keeps the competitive juices and the banter flowing.

[Qqq123xx]

Lets get my next 1-2 week out of the way so I can concentrate on losing College games. 

 

         WEEK 17 NFL PICKS

 

N.E. / BEEF ON WECK     0/40.5

HOT LANTA / DA BEARS     0/39

TUNA CASSEROLE / RAVENS   -3

 

[nsxguy]

6 hours ago, doctoro said:

I have been digesting all of the PP dialogue.  I am a little ADHD over the course of my life so pardon my lack of attention to detail. When I play hold em with guys that work with numbers all the time I am at a huge disadvantage. But they are also when they can’t wrap their minds around my ability to bluff and change tactics during a tournament…I won a local tournament once. My life’s highlight. LOL. 
I don’t play anymore. But it was fun about 10 or so years ago.  
 

This is the amount of data I have gathered. Now pardon my lack of understanding if I miss anything. I think I read that we have up to 4PP’s?  
I keep seeing people’s names posted who are eligible. What does that mean? 
I have seen posts with stats with and without the PP.

Without it many of us would not be doing as well.  
Myself included. 
I look at it this way. 
When a Vegas handicapper posts winning percentages they look at it in terms of unit. 
A unit represents a set amount of money that you bet based on their conviction of their pick.  When they tell you to bet units that’s a clue as to how much they believe in that pick.  Usually predicated by line movement and how Vegas set the opening line. 

The PP is worth 20pts? So that would be a 4 unit bet. 
I feel like if you lose that bet you should deduct 4 units.  But the rules are all the same for everyone so no issues from me.  
If you read the idiot newspaper articles these guys put out Best bets and their winning percentage on Best Bets is usually but not always a tad higher than their picks. 

All I am saying is that I have no issues with the PP

Its kinda like playing poker with wild cards, after a busy night at the restaurant, and winning everyone’s tip outs after a busy shift and then some sore loser complaining about bad beats because you win with a one eyed Jack and a suicide king.  
 

I think the PP is designed to make it more entertaining over the year. 
I have been on both sides of the gimmick game. 
In years past the gimmicks did me wrong this year they have been beneficial. 
I would like to think this is a good dry run if I ever decide to open up another betting account with a Sportsbook. I did not bet once this year. 
I have not watched a game from beginning to end once this year. 
I have seen half’s here and there but that’s about it.  A little red zone while preparing food in the kitchen.  
I don’t wear an apron though. 
 

PS I think I have one PP left. But is there a game out there that’s worth 4 units? 
Where is Jimmy the Greek when you need him? 

 

 

Well, Jimmy the Greek ain't around anymore but I'll give it a (weak) shot. At one time, many years ago I read up extensively on gambling and "what the pros do".

 

Units - Units are simply a measurement of what the handicapper feels are better bets. Kind of like the "Morning Line" in horse racing. The morning line is the "odds" on each horse according to the "sheet" or a single person's opinion.

 

So 4-5 would be the favorite, 2nd choice 3-1, 3rd 5-1, etc. THese "odds" are NOT the odds at post time since the bettors create the odds by their bets (Parimutuel betting). The track takes out 17% and the odds on each horse are based on the percentage of money bet on each one of them by the bettors.

 

Units are the same thing. It's simply the (horse) handicapper's opinion, only for the handicapper you're talking about, weighted by "# of units" he'd bet. It's just that simple.

 

 

We have a PP "every 4 weeks" - so, up to 5 (weeks 1/5/9/13/17 or 2/6/10/14/18). i.e. If you didn't use your 1st PP until week 3, you'd only get 4 PPs.

 

A simple tactic of a professional racing bettor, as *I* have read about (long time ago), will analyze each race well before going to the track. He'll dope out HIS "MOA" (Minimum Odds Acceptable) for HIS favorite of each race, using past performances and current field and track conditions (among other things). And he'll write down HIS MOA for each horse he'd like to bet.

 

At race time, IF the odds on the horse he likes are better than HIS odds, he'll bet the horse. This is called an "overlay". A "value" if you will. If there's no overlay, he passes. A professional generally bets 2 or 3 races a day. He may go home some days not betting any races.

 

Another thing a horse racing professional (supposedly) never does is bet on bad horses. He prefers quality races with high-level horses, if for no other reason than they are far more consistent. It's easier to rely on past performance when the horses are more consistent. It's like craps at the casino. The odds of any single number that can come up are easily calculated.

 

It's kinda what you mentioned about wild cards in poker. Supposedly, a professional card player would NEVER play a card game with wild cards. WAY too unpredictable. And your hand can CHANGE from winner to loser with the flip of a single card that literally has no bearing on the other cards in one's hand. "No thanks" says the professional.

 

Our PP is an overlay all day. You're getting 2-1 odds, +20 vs. -10, on an even money bet. It's a bet a professional would ALWAYS take. If you flipped a coin ALL day on 2-1 odds, you would ALWAYS end up ahead. It would be an incredible fluke to come up behind with said coin flips.

 

ALL "single" football games are a 50/50 bet since ties are "no bet". So how do the books make money ? The "vig", or commission. Way back when, the only vig on a single straight bet was 10% on losing bets. You bet $100. You win you win $100, you lose and you lose $110.

 

Parlays seem to be very popular nowadays but the more teams one includes in a parlay the worse the actual payout.

 

e.g. 4 team parlay. 4 even money bets grouped together. The true odds are 15-1. The payout is generally ~12-1. That's a 20% worse return. One that's worse than almost ANY casino bet.

 

Yet non-professional gamblers seem to LOVE these bets; they LOVE fantasizing about a "huge" payout of $600, risking "only" $50. <-- I hear this ALL the time on local sports talk radio. You'd think these guys would know better, but no, they apparently don't.

 

Today, with analytics and computers, there are all sorts of different vig percentages. You can bet those different vigs favor the books (even more).

 

A coin flip is a 50/50 bet. If someone flipped a coin, say 4 times and it came up heads all 4 times, and you asked someone what the odds were on the 5th flip, they'd often say something like 5-1, or some such "calculation".

 

Which, of course, is wrong, as each individual flip is 50/50. The coin has no memory. And the question wasn't "What are the odds of 5 heads in a row ?". The question was "What are the odds on this one flip ?".

 

Anywho, Vegas was built, and self-sustains, on the relative ignorance of bettors and the desire for "action". Casual bettors ignore this at their peril.

 

Oh, and please pay NO attention to THIS guy

 

[Qqq123xx]

I don't have all my College picks done yet so will just post Thursdays now. And all together tomorrow. The press has been alerted. 

 

THURSDAYS COLLEGE PICKS

 

SMU   -10

RUTGERS / MIAMI     O/40.5

N.C. ST. / KSU     O/47.5

ARIZONA / OKLA.    O/60.5

 

[nsxguy]

7 minutes ago, chisag said:

Next year I won't use the PP and I'll see if that is a tactical error or stealthy maneuver. 

 

Tactical error. Your 0-4 is a fluke. You could flip a coin and your most likely result would be 2-2.

 

And while 2-2 is a break-even proposition under a normal picking scheme, it is a winning proposition under the current PP rules.

 

Someone is going to be 2-2 or better and close enough to your win total to end up beating you with the PP. Just look at the effect of NCL's 3-0.

[nsxguy]

14 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... I actually like the idea of not using the PP against those that do. I normally don't bet on parlays because even though the reward is huge, the punishment for missing one game is too great for my tastes. But I do well with single game bets. Yet I know folks that only bet parlays because they aren't interested in betting $10 to win $8.21  Fwiw I don't bet when I play golf. It is a bad combination for me since I don't like taking friends money and I don't like giving them mine. 🤷‍♂️

 

Very wise to avoid parlays. Terrible bets. See my post above - if you can wade through it.

 

Not sure I understand you're "they aren't interested in betting $10 to win $8.21". I'm not following the math. 

[chisag]

3 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

I play against several of my golf buddies for a dime. For those less affluent we play for a nickel.  It keeps the competitive juices and the banter flowing.

 

 

... I certainly get that. For me at least the challenge of playing the course and chasing my lowest round is the ultimate challenge. I like to say when I am swinging poorly I am excited to get back out and fix it and when I am swinging well I am excited to get back out and repeat it. 

... I met Bill Devane when I kidnapped him and Tess Harper as the guest star villain on Early Edition. He was coming back to town to film a show called Turks and we bonded over golf. He played betting $1500 a round and was disappointed I didn't want in. So he covered my $1500 and took the $3000 in the loss or the winnings. At that time I couldn't afford to lose $150 let alone $1500. After 5 rounds he got in with a Private Club crowd and not only stopped playing with me, he cut me from Turks. To say he was an ask hole is an understatement.  

[touch]

I've decided to make it 13 picks 

 

My College Bowl Game Picks 

 

 

SMU  -10

 KSU  -2.5     

ARIZONA - 3  

CLEMSON  -4  

IOWA ST.  -10    

MISSOURI / OSU  Over  49.5

MISSOURI +1 

MARYLAND +7     

WYOMING  -3.5    

LSU  -10  

LIBERTY / OREGON  Over 67.5

BAMA +2 

TEXAS  -4.5  

[chisag]

Just now, nsxguy said:

Not sure I understand you're "they aren't interested in betting $10 to win $8.21". I'm not following the math. 

 

 

... Just a straight bet on a game where one team is slightly favored. 


 

• Miami Dolphins

  -118

  MONEYLINE

   

  Dallas Cowboys @ Miami DolphinsDEC 24, 2:26PM MST
•  

   

  $10.00

  TOTAL WAGER

  $18.47

  WON ON FANDUEL

   

   

   

 

[nsxguy]

8 minutes ago, chisag said:

 

 

... Just a straight bet on a game where one team is slightly favored. 


 

• Miami Dolphins

  -118

  MONEYLINE

   

  Dallas Cowboys @ Miami DolphinsDEC 24, 2:26PM MST
•  

   

  $10.00

  TOTAL WAGER

  $18.47

  WON ON FANDUEL

   

   

   

 

 

Ahhhh, a money-line bet. OK, wasn't thinking in those terms.

 

Got it. 👍

[touch]

 

 

When I created this little extra play for this year's contest I had no idea it would.... 1. create so much talk , 2. Be talked about all season long regarding if it was a good thing or a bad thing, and 3. Have standings done without the PP to show different results. 

 

I wonder if my newly created "DIP" play in the Playoffs Contest will also see such a division in the group? Oh well, I like bonus plays and will continue to add them to the mix.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by touch

[chisag]

17 minutes ago, touch said:

 

 

When I created this little extra play for this year's contest I had no idea it would.... 1. create so much talk , 2. Be talked about all season long regarding if it was a good thing or a bad thing, and 3. Have standings done without the PP to show different results. 

 

I wonder if my newly created "DIP" play in the Playoffs Contest will also see such a division in the group? Oh well, I like bonus plays and will continue to add them to the mix.

 

 

 

 

... When you are the King your subjects have no choice but to follow your Royal Rules. ✌️ 

[Double Mocha Man]

1 hour ago, touch said:

 

 

When I created this little extra play for this year's contest I had no idea it would.... 1. create so much talk , 2. Be talked about all season long regarding if it was a good thing or a bad thing, and 3. Have standings done without the PP to show different results. 

 

I wonder if my newly created "DIP" play in the Playoffs Contest will also see such a division in the group? Oh well, I like bonus plays and will continue to add them to the mix.

 

 

 

A guy's gotta be controversial at times, or he ain't got nuthin'.

[Qqq123xx]

6 hours ago, touch said:

My college Bowl Game Picks Week 3 

 

Let's do a lucky 13 this week. 

 

 

SMU  -10

 KSU  -2.5     

ARIZONA - 3  

CLEMSON  -4  

IOWA ST.  -10    

MISSOURI / OSU  Over  49.5

MISSOURI +1 

MARYLAND +7     

WYOMING  -3.5    

LSU  -10  

LIBERTY / OREGON  Over 67.5

BAMA +2 

TEXAS  -4.5  

 

 

 

Photo 

U of Missouri Cheerleaders 

 

 

5 hours ago, NJBigFish22 said:

Time for more college picks.

 

I am going to pick them all.  This will either boost the record or destroy it.  I could give a quick take on each game, but honestly don't follow some of these teams and with players sitting out and coaches leaving, it's a crap shoot at times.

 

SMU -10

Rutgers/Miami Under

NC State +2.5

Arizona -3

Kentucky +4

Oregon St./ND Over

Memphis +10

Missouri +1

Ole Miss +3.5

Auburn -7

Georgia -16.5

Toledo/Wyoming Over

LSU -10

Iowa +8.5

Bama +2

Texas -4.5

 

Don't forget the 15 point final score spread for the two Championship games. Worth one win each team inside said spread. 

[Qqq123xx]

Okay got butt in gear and have rest of COLLEGE PICKS done.

 

SMU   -10

RUTGERS / MIAMI     O/40.5

N.C. ST. / KSU     O/47.5

ARIZ. / OKLA.     O/60.5

CLEMSON   -4

OREGON ST. / N.D.     U/41.5

MEMPHIS   +10

OSU   -1

PSU   -3.5

GA.   -16.5

TOLEDO / WYOMING     O/44.5

LSU   -10

OREGON   -17

TENN.   -8.5

 

ALABAMA / MICHIGAN     O/44.5     45-60  F.S. SPREAD

WASHINGTON   +4.5     55-70   F.S. SPREAD 

 

 

[NJBigFish22]

21 minutes ago, Qqq123xx said:

 

 

Don't forget the 15 point final score spread for the two Championship games. Worth one win each team inside said spread. 

Overlooked that I guess.  
 

Alabama/Michigan 42-57 points

Texas/Washington 53-68 points

[touch]

Our Picks  Week 17 

 

P3P           Atlanta             Houston            SEA/PGH  Over

Q              NE/BUFF Over  ATL/CHI Over   Baltimore 

 

 

[nsxguy]

4 hours ago, touch said:

When I created this little extra play for this year's contest I had no idea it would.... 1. create so much talk , 2. Be talked about all season long regarding if it was a good thing or a bad thing, and 3. Have standings done without the PP to show different results

 

Well, that's what happens on a discussion board.

 

Things are discussed.

 

 

 

[touch]

My College Bowl Game Picks 

 

SMU  -10

 KSU  -2.5     

ARIZONA - 3  

CLEMSON  -4  

IOWA ST.  -10    

MISSOURI / OSU  Over  49.5

MISSOURI +1 

MARYLAND +7     

WYOMING  -3.5    

LSU  -10  

LIBERTY / OREGON  Over 67.5

BAMA +2 

Washington +4.5  

 

Alabama/Michigan  44-59             

Texas/Washington  60-75