Shankieboink's 10 000$-100 000$ challenge

[cehb]

I've had a large bet (well, large for me) on Spieth at $2.62 after the completion of the 3rd round.

 

I have a model I've been working on for some time which prices Spieth at $1.85. Without going into boring statistical analysis, he has a 3 shot buffer over the next proven performer at this level (Day) and there are only 3 players between them.

 

I think Langer will struggle tomorrow in better scoring conditions than the first 54 holes. There have been rookies that have performed well at Augusta but Kaufman is essentially straight off web.com and although he has performed very well during his short time on Tour, this is a totally different kettle of fish and playing with arguably the best player on the planet (who all the crowd will be pulling for) - I'm willing to risk him. I think Matsuyama has a legitimate chance to win but Spieth still has 2 shots over him and I don't think the current prices accurately reflect the true probabilities.

 

My model spits out prices of -

 

Spieth - $1.85

Day - $9.00

DJ - $11.00

Matsuyama - $11.00

Kaufman - $18.00

Langer - $30.00

 

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

lol you must be thrilled, nice call. wonder what you could cash it out for

 

Price available to lay Langer at present is $38.00 so you could green out at around $220 profit. Not bad for a $32 outlay :)

[Gamble Gamble]

there is not an effective way for me to hedge my position without giving up an absurd level of equity. I guess the show goes on!

 

 

Price available to lay Langer at present is $38.00 so you could green out at around $220 profit. Not bad for a $32 outlay :)

 

What site are you using to lay money against a player?

[cehb]

 

What site are you using to lay money against a player?

 

Betfair and Matchbook.

[Gamble Gamble]

I figured it wasn't one that lets US residents do it. I tried finding one when I had my Zach Johnson bet in the Open. Thankfully I didn't find one but it would be nice to find a site that works for US residents.

[cehb]

Ah yes, I forgot that Betfair is off limits to US residents :(

 

One of the biggest benefits (besides better odds of course) is you can effectively reuse your bank up to your greatest liability. You might have $100k in total bets on a market but if your worst result is say Jason Day at -$100, you can use all but $100 of your bank. It's great for investors in your situation as you don't have to outlay exorbitant amounts of money to hedge your position, in fact the cost of doing so is very modest indeed.

 

I've laid off on Spieth at $1.10, once the odds get that low there's very minimal benefit in letting the bet ride, instead I can enjoy the back 9 with no stress whatsoever. I hope the results are falling your way!

[Gamble Gamble]

unf*cking real.

[StumpV1]

The fallout from that blow up may in fact surpass radiation levels at Chernobyl....

[Gamble Gamble]

Inside look at my pre-blow up convo

 

 

[Shankieboink]

I messed up this week with my bets, so I won't tell anyone "I told you so" about Spieth, becuse I realize he really was close to winning (T2 with that kind of play from the tee is just crazy!). Spieth was much better in 2014 (2nd) and 2015 (win), his short game just as fantastic this week. This win would have been a super bonus. Sure, his 2nd ball in the water on the 12th was surprising, but how many times has he been "lucky" not having to go back to tee or hit it backwards from the forest this week? I know he's a magican saving himself, but many, many times this week he has been happy to find himself with some kind of shot. Willett was the best player this week. I usually do great betting on the Masters, and I can't belive I didn't bet Willett. He has been great lately. It would have been easier if a guy like Kjeldsen had won becuse he was never on my radar.

 

I'm real surprised that my big three (Mickelson, Bubba, Schwartzel did so poorly. I should probably take a break, but I won't :). I have my bankroll and I'm pretty sure that I'll turn it around). Also, I learned that Matsuyama isn't ready for a win this big. His putting was really off on the important holes.

[Shankieboink]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

lol you must be thrilled, nice call. wonder what you could cash it out for

 

He would have needed a bit more wind to have a real chance. Cashing out on golf bets that way are never a profitable way to play it. You just get terrible deals. And in the long run you win a few ones so I just never do it. The other (better way) to do it is to protect yourself with live bets on some other guy in the top. I do that sometimes if it's only your guy and one or two others that can win it. From my understanding that is how Gamble Gamble also do it sometimes?

[Gamble Gamble]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

lol you must be thrilled, nice call. wonder what you could cash it out for

 

He would have needed a bit more wind to have a real chance. Cashing out on golf bets that way are never a profitable way to play it. You just get terrible deals. And in the long run you win a few ones so I just never do it. The other (better way) to do it is to protect yourself with live bets on some other guy in the top. I do that sometimes if it's only your guy and one or two others that can win it. From my understanding that is how Gamble Gamble also do it sometimes?

 

That is what i do. The problem was, I went out to a bar with friends to watch this one. One of them was talking to me when the ball went in the water so i was distracted. If I would have been paying attention i would have put 1100 on Willet at 3-1 to ensure a 1.5k profit. Ugh. A very underwhelming day. In the future if i have that much "equity" in the tourney i will be at home to make sure i can maneuver quickly.

 

Good luck though shankie, i cashed out my bovada account so i dont tilt it off. I may jump back in after I am rational again...

[Shankieboink]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

lol you must be thrilled, nice call. wonder what you could cash it out for

 

He would have needed a bit more wind to have a real chance. Cashing out on golf bets that way are never a profitable way to play it. You just get terrible deals. And in the long run you win a few ones so I just never do it. The other (better way) to do it is to protect yourself with live bets on some other guy in the top. I do that sometimes if it's only your guy and one or two others that can win it. From my understanding that is how Gamble Gamble also do it sometimes?

 

That is what i do. The problem was, I went out to a bar with friends to watch this one. One of them was talking to me when the ball went in the water so i was distracted. If I would have been paying attention i would have put 1100 on Willet at 3-1 to ensure a 1.5k profit. Ugh. A very underwhelming day. In the future if i have that much "equity" in the tourney i will be at home to make sure i can maneuver quickly.

 

Good luck though shankie, i cashed out my bovada account so i dont tilt it off. I may jump back in after I am rational again...

 

Okay, you will always get some bad breaks when you bet on a game like golf. Sounds like a good idea with a break if you are on tilt however. Hope to see you here again soon! Good example on the Willet situation on how you could have protected yourself.

[Blade Junkie]

Unlucky Shankieboink and particularly Gamble Gamble. Very enjoyable thread as usual, so thanks for keeping us all entertained!

 

Blade Junkie is of course deliriously happy that Danny Willett got over the line. As well has having only our second English US Masters winner after Faldo, Danny has also just won me £1,650 (about $2,330) :)

 

Congrats to Strickler as well, as he also had money on Willett.

 

 

I wish you both better luck in the next event you bet on. The US Open will be next up for me in golf betting.

[cehb]

He would have needed a bit more wind to have a real chance. Cashing out on golf bets that way are never a profitable way to play it. You just get terrible deals.

 

I agree, cash out offers are always terrible value (and aren't always offered) which is why I love the P2P exchanges like Betfair. I don't need 6 figures in liquid funds to call 15 different bookmakers in order to hedge my position, it literally takes 1 second to click the "auto green" function on my trading software and that's it, profit locked in. With my Spieth bet, if I had to hedge with traditional bookies I would have needed well into the 5 figure range in liquid funds once it became apparent that he was making a mess of things (Willett went from ~$10 to around $1.50 in a matter of minutes). And that's assuming I could find a book to even take a bet of that size in running. I made just over 6k which would have been a 5k loss had I not been able to lay it off.

 

I have a decent ROI on golf betting but I'd be running at a loss if I had to rely on traditional bookmakers. I know it's difficult for US based golf punters but it's very much worthwhile enlisting the help of a trusted family member or friend outside of the US if at all possible to be able to trade on one of the various exchanges.

 

And Gamble Gamble, best of luck with your investments in the future, hopefully today is just a momentary blip.

[Gamble Gamble]

He would have needed a bit more wind to have a real chance. Cashing out on golf bets that way are never a profitable way to play it. You just get terrible deals.

 

I agree, cash out offers are always terrible value (and aren't always offered) which is why I love the P2P exchanges like Betfair. I don't need 6 figures in liquid funds to call 15 different bookmakers in order to hedge my position, it literally takes 1 second to click the "auto green" function on my trading software and that's it, profit locked in. With my Spieth bet, if I had to hedge with traditional bookies I would have needed well into the 5 figure range in liquid funds once it became apparent that he was making a mess of things (Willett went from ~$10 to around $1.50 in a matter of minutes). And that's assuming I could find a book to even take a bet of that size in running. I made just over 6k which would have been a 5k loss had I not been able to lay it off.

 

I have a decent ROI on golf betting but I'd be running at a loss if I had to rely on traditional bookmakers. I know it's difficult for US based golf punters but it's very much worthwhile enlisting the help of a trusted family member or friend outside of the US if at all possible to be able to trade on one of the various exchanges.

 

And Gamble Gamble, best of luck with your investments in the future, hopefully today is just a momentary blip.

 

Thank you for the words. I have had a really good run over the past 10 months so I am not too upset. More shocked and annoyed that I did not have the live bet up on my phone incase something like this happened. Ah well, lesson learned.

[PZero]

I like the Matsuyama bet ... he tends to turn up at the big events ... was also tempted by Schwartzel, who has been playing pretty good since he won the Alfred Dunhill back in November.

 

In the end I had a small flutter as follows:

 

£20 E/W on Danny Willett @66/1 (I think he will be the next UK player to win a Major, and has had a good season so far)

£20 E/W on Rafael Cabrera Bello @100/1 (he's on a streak, and when he's hot he tends to stay hot for a few weeks ...)

£10 E/W on Chris Wood @350/1 (he was an inch away from an albatross on #13 on Monday, playing with McIlroy, plus my mate is his 'peak performance' coach!)

 

E/W is 1/4 odds and Top 6.

 

As the above was funded by a £100 free bet on the Masters that I won as a prize in a club event, I will probably have another flutter when I wake up tomorrow. Andy Sullivan and Justin Rose will most probably figure in that ...

 

Good call!

[poizster]

[Strickler]

Great thread fellas. Some pretty large bets going on.

 

Shankieboink seems like he does this for fun (albeit with a large risk), but Gamble Gamble seems like he does this professionally. Is that right?

 

Why? I know Shankie made $30 000 something last year in one of the bets he put up here. I'd think they both look professionals about it. However, I like the way where Shankie never adds anything to his bankroll outside of what is posted on this board prior to the outcome. This is probably my favourite thread and I will definitely continue to follow both of them!

Anyway, here are my Masters bets! (I'll start with a $300 bankroll)

$15 on Jason Day at 7/1

$10 on Phil Mickelson at 20/1

$10 on Danny Willett at 66/1

Bankroll: 265

 

New bankroll: $925! Great thread, I have learned a lot on how to think about betting thanks to Shankie. I'm sure you and Gamble Gamble will turn your bankrolls around. I'm just a newbie and this was no $33 000 win, but I hope that I also can be a winner in the really long run.

[Gamble Gamble]

Ok so I FT'ed the bovada big nightly tourney.

 

 

Jamie Lovemark @ $128.95 @ 55-1

 

Remaining Bankroll: $6,200

[Afraid2goLow]

Betting big this weekend boys, 10 whole dollars,

 

$2 Knox 50/1

$2 Lee 60/1

$2 Kirk 95/1

$1 Lingmerth 125/1

$1 Weekley 220/1

$2 Streb 300/1

[knock it close]

Sneds 18

Na 42

Will Mack 150

[Shankieboink]

Here are my bets for the RBC Heritage. This is a ballstrikers tournament.

 

Matt Kuchar 23X $140

Zach Johnson 26X $100

Branden Grace 41x $60

David Lingmerth 126x $50

 

Total: $350

 

Funds: $6800

[Blade Junkie]

Good luck Shankie. Johnson usually does well at this tournament. I think Grace is always worth a bet as well.

 

 

As for me, well, I only usually bet on Majors for golf betting, but as it's the first tournament as a Pro for Bryson Dechambeau, I reckon he's bound to win LOL ... so have made an exception to my "rule" and backed him at 66/1 - £10 E/W :)

 

(E/W part is 1/4 odds and Top 5).

[Gamble Gamble]

Oops on Lovemark.

 

$200 on Chappel @ 5-1 tied for first at -8 in the final pairing.

 

Got it right as his birdie to tie was dropping. Odds just moved to 4-1.

 

 

[nellycuz]

Oops on Lovemark.

 

$200 on Chappel @ 5-1 tied for first at -8 in the final pairing.

 

Got it right as his birdie to tie was dropping. Odds just moved to 4-1.

 

 

 

Ouch....I don't think the last 7 holes could have gone any worse for you...Bogey, Bogey, par, double, par, par, double...damn

[pinhigh27]

do you guys tend to shy away from fan favorites due to poor odds on them secondary to other people putting lots of money on them?

[pinhigh27]

like even tho phil is playing very well, I just see him as the fan favorite that people are always going to bet on, so it seems unlikely he'd ever have satisfactory odds due to how much of a fan favorite he is

[Blade Junkie]

Well done Shankie ! Take a bow Brandon Grace !

 

I won a little bit on Bryson Dechambeau, who tied for 5th, so I win my each way bet, albeit at half the hoped for pay out due to Kevin Na also finishing tied for 5th.

 

 

<<EDIT: Oh Jason Kokrak just doubled 18 !!!! Full E/W pay out on Bryson then :) >>

[Shankieboink]

Ok, $2460 on B Grace. Maybe I can get my bankroll started now.

 

Funds: $9260

[Gamble Gamble]

Nice Hit Shankie!