Shankieboink's 10 000$-100 000$ challenge

[Gamble Gamble]

After a few degenerate live bets gone bad, the last one paid off. Herman $300 @5.5 to 1 when he was up by one on the front 9 got me back to even.

 

Bankroll: 8388

 

bet on the masters; Spieth $540 @ 7.5 to 1 Lets do this!

 

Also, I randomly had a bet on Graeme McDowell on the Masters, I must have been delirious when I made that one because it was months ago at 125 to 1 (instead of the current 275 to 1). The bet was broken up in a few flights but is 160 @ 125 to 1. It would be 20k if he wins. However I think that money would have been better spent on a nice dinner with the GF... i digress...

 

Gamble Gamble, plz don't include bets in your bankroll that you haven't posted here. I find this topic interesting and follow you and Shankie, but if you include bets that you have no timestamp on you compromise the whole idea.

 

 

[Afraid2goLow]

Kirk 200/1 each way ($25 to win at 200/1) ($25 to top 5 for 50/1)

[Gamble Gamble]

Masters Bets:

 

Spieth $540 @ 7.5-1

Lefty $223 @ 18-1

McDowell $160 @ 125-1 (was a futures bet last fall)

Kisner $32 @ 125-1

Casey $29 @ 70-1

Bowditch $35 @ 750-1

Leishman $12 @ 75-1

 

Total Wagered: $1031

 

Total against current bankroll $871 (McDowell was paid before this shadow bankroll)

 

FYI - This is the one sporting event I go HAM on.

[pmadden86]

Masters Bets:

 

Spieth $540 @ 7.5-1

Lefty $223 @ 18-1

McDowell $160 @ 125-1 (was a futures bet last fall)

Kisner $32 @ 125-1

Casey $29 @ 70-1

Bowditch $35 @ 750-1

Leishman $12 @ 75-1

 

Total Wagered: $1031

 

Total against current bankroll $871 (McDowell was paid before this shadow bankroll)

 

FYI - This is the one sporting event I go HAM on.

 

Bowditch $35 @ 750/1

 

The guy hasn't went under par in his last 13 competitive rounds & 6 of those 13 rounds were 80+ :swoon:

[Gamble Gamble]

Masters Bets:

 

Spieth $540 @ 7.5-1

Lefty $223 @ 18-1

McDowell $160 @ 125-1 (was a futures bet last fall)

Kisner $32 @ 125-1

Casey $29 @ 70-1

Bowditch $35 @ 750-1

Leishman $12 @ 75-1

 

Total Wagered: $1031

 

Total against current bankroll $871 (McDowell was paid before this shadow bankroll)

 

FYI - This is the one sporting event I go HAM on.

 

Bowditch $35 @ 750/1

 

The guy hasn't went under par in his last 13 competitive rounds & 6 of those 13 rounds were 80+ :swoon:

 

My basis for doing that was that i was going to revive my thread from last year regarding him for the reason you mentioned.

 

http://www.golfwrx.com/forums/topic/1183768-bowditch-dqs/

 

That weekend Bowditch went ape d#ck and won.

 

He just has demons and can do well on tour. Also I do this for fun during the masters, so what's another $35 and if he makes the cut $26k will be on my mind. This is akin to when I go to the casino. I rarely play anything but poker but every once in a while I play blackjack. Purely for fun as counting cards is boring and anyone who thinks they gain a realistic edge without a team and with modern setups is delusional. If you see me at a blackjack table it is just to hangout with the GF or friends. Flier bets are my version of Blackjack with golf. Basically anyone with less than $100 is just a fun bet. If it is over $100 I actually did some analytics. Except the McDowell bet, as those bets were made a while back.

 

Lefty and Spieth are my real bets. I think their payout odds are higher than their actual probability.

[pmadden86]

Masters Bets:

 

Spieth $540 @ 7.5-1

Lefty $223 @ 18-1

McDowell $160 @ 125-1 (was a futures bet last fall)

Kisner $32 @ 125-1

Casey $29 @ 70-1

Bowditch $35 @ 750-1

Leishman $12 @ 75-1

 

Total Wagered: $1031

 

Total against current bankroll $871 (McDowell was paid before this shadow bankroll)

 

FYI - This is the one sporting event I go HAM on.

 

Bowditch $35 @ 750/1

 

The guy hasn't went under par in his last 13 competitive rounds & 6 of those 13 rounds were 80+ :swoon:

 

My basis for doing that was that i was going to revive my thread from last year regarding him for the reason you mentioned.

 

http://www.golfwrx.c...8-bowditch-dqs/

 

That weekend Bowditch went ape d#ck and won.

 

He just has demons and can do well on tour. Also I do this for fun during the masters, so what's another $35 and if he makes the cut $26k will be on my mind. This is akin to when I go to the casino. I rarely play anything but poker but every once in a while I play blackjack. Purely for fun as counting cards is boring and anyone who thinks they gain a realistic edge without a team and with modern setups is delusional. If you see me at a blackjack table it is just to hangout with the GF or friends. Flier bets are my version of Blackjack with golf. Basically anyone with less than $100 is just a fun bet. If it is over $100 I actually did some analytics. Except the McDowell bet, as those bets were made a while back.

 

Lefty and Spieth are my real bets. I think their payout odds are higher than their actual probability.

 

Id love to see him do it for you - 750/1 shots do win once every 750 odd times! i'll be rooting for him.

[TJ_Hooker]

€25 on DJ at 18/1

€3 on Cabrera Bello at 100/1

€2 on DeChambeau at 250/1

€2 on Aphibarnrat at 250/1

 

Odds with paddy powers, best of luck gents, hopefully I'll get to ball on your level some day.

[PJ72]

Great thread fellas. Some pretty large bets going on.

 

Shankieboink seems like he does this for fun (albeit with a large risk), but Gamble Gamble seems like he does this professionally. Is that right?

[Strickler]

Great thread fellas. Some pretty large bets going on.

 

Shankieboink seems like he does this for fun (albeit with a large risk), but Gamble Gamble seems like he does this professionally. Is that right?

 

Why? I know Shankie made $30 000 something last year in one of the bets he put up here. I'd think they both look professionals about it. However, I like the way where Shankie never adds anything to his bankroll outside of what is posted on this board prior to the outcome. This is probably my favourite thread and I will definitely continue to follow both of them!

Anyway, here are my Masters bets! (I'll start with a $300 bankroll)

$15 on Jason Day at 7/1

$10 on Phil Mickelson at 20/1

$10 on Danny Willett at 66/1

Bankroll: 265

[Shankieboink]

It's Masters week! I usually do good betting wise this week. I'll bet much more from my bankroll than I usually do, and I have some ideas. It will be played much tougher this year than last year. Friday & Saturday are looking like windy conditions and the greens will be very fast for the weekend. This week I'll put a short note after every player on why I picked them. I have excluded three top picks and that is Spieth, Rory & Day. The reason for not picking Rory is that he doesn't like windy conditions (weird since he is from Ireland). Spieth found his putting in the final round last week, but he makes to many misstakes in his long game right now. I was thinking of betting Day, but didn't get value enough on him.

 

As for the subject on posting bets after the result.. People probably don't lie about it, but there will always be a bit of doubt on if the bets were really made. Also, it is easy to put the winning bets but not posting the losing bets. Easier to just not put these bets at all. Anyway, everyone is free to do as they wish. I think it's fun just to see the bets flying around here and who make the right pick or not!

 

Masters Tournament 2016

 

Phil Mickelson 19X - $270 (He is looking much better this year than last year, and he was very close to winning last year. He will have no problem with the wind.)

Bubba Watson 13X - $250 (He loves this course and he knows how to win. I think he is looking just as good as the years he won.)

C Schwartzel 41X -$150 (Totally forgotten. He knows how to play fast greens and knows how to win here. Perhaps the best value of any player in the field.)

Henrik Stenson 26X -$100 (Usually I don't think he's a good enough putter to win here, but he hits the ball higher than anyone and will be needed to stop the ball.)

H Matsuyama 41X - $100 (A bit forgotten, but showed great play here last year and I really liked his win at the Waste Management earlier this season.)

C Hoffman 141X - $50 (He goes crazy low in some rounds, and I wont forget his first two rounds here last year.)

Cabrera Bello 111X - $50 (He had a great last round at the Shell and four top 4 in his last six tournaments. Knows the wind and hard courses.)

A Cabrera 201X - $30 (He hasn't played good at all lately, but he always seem to do good here and I've made tons of money on him at Augusta)

Tonchai Jaidee 300X - $30 (If anyone knows how to play fast greens it's this guy. And at 300X I just had to bet on him.)

 

Total: $1030 (I better win....)

 

Funds: $7332

[Shankieboink]

Btw, lol. I just looked at you bets Gamble Gamble and realised you had bet $1031 and I bet $1030 ($1 more than me, I guess you won or lost depending on how you look at it...). Also, forgot to mention A Scott as a pick for winning Masters. I just don't have a feeling of him winning this year. Not sure about the conditions beeing good for him. First major with a short putter also.

[Blade Junkie]

I like the Matsuyama bet ... he tends to turn up at the big events ... was also tempted by Schwartzel, who has been playing pretty good since he won the Alfred Dunhill back in November.

 

In the end I had a small flutter as follows:

 

£20 E/W on Danny Willett @66/1 (I think he will be the next UK player to win a Major, and has had a good season so far)

£20 E/W on Rafael Cabrera Bello @100/1 (he's on a streak, and when he's hot he tends to stay hot for a few weeks ...)

£10 E/W on Chris Wood @350/1 (he was an inch away from an albatross on #13 on Monday, playing with McIlroy, plus my mate is his 'peak performance' coach!)

 

E/W is 1/4 odds and Top 6.

 

As the above was funded by a £100 free bet on the Masters that I won as a prize in a club event, I will probably have another flutter when I wake up tomorrow. Andy Sullivan and Justin Rose will most probably figure in that ...

[beluga99]

Awesome thread Shankieboink - I'm not a gambler but love following your betting adventures. Good luck. I hope you win big! I like Schwartzel too.

[Gamble Gamble]

Lol I just saw the odds on Spieth go to 10-1 so I fired another $600 on him.

 

Total Spieth bet: 1140 @ 8.81-1 (blended)

 

If the odds go to 15-1 I may fire the rest of my bovada account on him.

[Gamble Gamble]

I saw an interesting opportunity to parlay a few 3 ball matches. I looked for 3 ball matches where relatively good/hot players playing:

 

Amateurs

Old People

Keegan Bradley

 

And parlayed them. Good luck everyone.

 

 

[Blade Junkie]

Bit of a screw up with Bet365 this morning, who couldn't take my bets on Sullivan and Rose for reasons I won't bore you with.

 

I did however find a £10 credit on my 888.com account, and after a slight re-think and assessment of "best value" they were offering, I went with a £5 win bet on Zach Johnson at 67/1 and the other £5, also win, went on Schwartzel at 46/1.

 

 

Obviously quite pleased that Johnson has made a good start!

 

 

[TJ_Hooker]

Lol I just saw the odds on Spieth go to 10-1 so I fired another $600 on him.

 

Total Spieth bet: 1140 @ 8.81-1 (blended)

 

If the odds go to 15-1 I may fire the rest of my bovada account on him.

 

Oh my, that 10/1 looks HUGE now.

[Blade Junkie]

Can you bet on how many putts Ernie Els is going to have today ? :golfer:

[Shankieboink]

Live bet (no, Spieth won't win this...:) )

 

Snedeker 36X $150

 

Funds: $7182

[Gamble Gamble]

Great thread fellas. Some pretty large bets going on.

 

Shankieboink seems like he does this for fun (albeit with a large risk), but Gamble Gamble seems like he does this professionally. Is that right?

 

I think we both go about it in a similar fashion but usually back different people. I am just running a little hot now and that comes and goes. Even though I am in a decent position Spieth is about 35% to win from my estimates, there still is plenty of golf to play. I don't do it professionally, but i try to be disciplined (not always) so that I can use the proceeds to pay for my golfing for me. I had a good year last year so it paid for my golf simulator room with GC2.

 

Why? I know Shankie made $30 000 something last year in one of the bets he put up here. I'd think they both look professionals about it. However, I like the way where Shankie never adds anything to his bankroll outside of what is posted on this board prior to the outcome.

 

Any time I add a live bet I post it on here. I just dont always put the bet in from my iPad and the mobile app for this site lacks function on my phone. Sometimes when I live bet i do it as the putt is rolling in so i can lock the best odds before they move, so i do not always post it here until later.

 

Lol I just saw the odds on Spieth go to 10-1 so I fired another $600 on him.

 

Total Spieth bet: 1140 @ 8.81-1 (blended)

 

If the odds go to 15-1 I may fire the rest of my bovada account on him.

 

Oh my, that 10/1 looks HUGE now.

 

Still early but I'm happier now than I was yesterday. There is still a ton of golf. one of the twitters i follow has spieth at 38% to win but that still leaves a large enough opening for Lowry or someone else to get hot.

 

 

PS. Lingmerth's triple on the par 3 cost me 2700... brutal :/

[Blade Junkie]

Hard luck with that Lingmerth bet GG ... very close with that one !

 

 

Just been trawling the various live odds, and found Kiradech Aphibarnrat offered at 300/1 by Paddy Power. For a guy sat in the club house on level par, with everyone coming backwards, that seemed like a good bet to me, so a tenner each way (1/4 odds, 1-2-3) has been staked!

[Blade Junkie]

Decent each way odds for DeChambeau (currently 1-under) as well I thought .. and Troy Merritt was 500/1 at +1 in the Clubhouse ... all a bit of fun anyway :)

 

 

 

[Gamble Gamble]

Really concerned with Jordan's emotional fortitude right now. If he calms down I like my bet, but this version of him is going to have a difficult time winning.

[TJ_Hooker]

I was a bit giddy for DeChambeau until he DeChamblowed. It's turning out to be pretty exciting, I love when they all struggle to get around, see how they like it for a change! Keep an eye on DJ, slowly slowly wins the race.

[Gamble Gamble]

So I found an interesting opportunity today. I found a company that will allow you to be your own boss and run your own company. The company is a Multi Level Marketing company called Amway...

 

Just kidding, pyramid schemes aside... onto the opportunity.

 

 

The two days have shown us the beauty and b*tch that is AGNC. This has led to groupings where someone played well on day one but had an exceptionally hard time on the 2nd day and the scores show it. We will call these people the "targets". On the other side, there were quite a few that had a hard time on day one but did RELATIVELY well on day two with the much windier conditions. For the sake of identifying them I will call them "movers".

 

I found a few movers who teed off at similar times as the targets they are playing in their 2 ball match and had high differentials. I added some knowledge of how these players have been playing and came up with a mini layered bet. I have a decent payout (1.7 to 1) bet that backstops the other two longer shots. The number in the parenthesis is the shot differential between the target and the movers, with the movers being the better/lower score for day 2.

 

Backstop Bet

 

Adam Scott (+5) v. Charlie Hoffman (both teed off late on day 2, Charlie has been blowing up on the weekends recently and played awful in the wind today)

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (+5) v. Ian Poulter (both teed off Early on Day 2 - Poulter got killed in the wind today)

 

 

Parlay - $100 @ 1.7 to 1

 

Middle Bet-Differentials of +4 or better

 

Scott (+5) v Hoffman

Cabrera-Bello (+5) v Poulter

Donaldson(+5) v. Rose (both were late on day 2)

Smith (+4) v Horschel (both were Early on day 2)

Simpson (+4) v Dubuisson (both were late on day 2)

Reed (+4) v Oothuizen (both were late on day 2)

 

$50 @ 59-1

 

 

Lets make my weekend Bet - this is really speculative, but it includes the ones above plus:

 

Kisner (+1) v Thomas

Lahiri (+2) v Kaymer

 

$50 @ 213-1

 

Obviously these are speculative plays, but by making the larger bet on the first parlay it should cover the subsequent parlays if it hits. If not, it was $200 lost, which you know, barely buys 1.33 Vokey SM6's. (discount dan prices obvi)

 

Good luck in day 3 guys!

[Shankieboink]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

[Gamble Gamble]

FYI Sunday could be a score fest. Perfect conditions, the pins are what is going to protect the scoring.

 

UPDATE: Going forward I am going to avoid betting on or against Patrick Reed. He seems to be way too volatile and hard to predict which Reed is going to show up at the tee.

[Blade Junkie]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

Would be a wonderful story for Langer to come through at age 58 ... I'm hoping he qualifies for The Open this year as I would back him on any Links course after what he did in the Senior Open at Royal Porthcawl a couple of years back.

 

I think your three main guys have had a shocker (Mickelson, Watson, Schwartzel) for three ex-Champs who were all in pretty good form ... can see why you would have backed them.

 

Good luck to everyone for the weekend rounds!

[Gamble Gamble]

Going to hedge out my positions. Probably going to shoot for a $1500 payout from anyone within 4 strokes, leaving an big upside if Jordan wins but giving myself some room if he doesn't.

[pinhigh27]

Live bet (no, Spieth still won't win this... :) )

 

Could be crazy dificulty sat/sun. Mickelson is by far the biggest surprise for me this year. Was pretty sure a top 10 was a done deal. I don't have many to hope for anymore. Sneds and Mastuyama. Here's $32 (get rid of those uneven $2) on Langer that goes E & E for the weekend for a win at +1!

 

Langer 301X $32

 

Funds: $7150

 

lol you must be thrilled, nice call. wonder what you could cash it out for