2018 NBA Season

[raynorfan1]

How great of picks were Kuzma and Hart? To get those two guys at 27 and 30th is incredible.

 

The surprising thing is actually how many good players over the years have been drafted that low. As a very casual NBA observer, I would have argued that drafting past the lottery is basically worthless - but some real talent has come out of 27-30. The NBA.com website lets you filter the draft database by overall position, so you can scan down th list pretty easily. Jimmy Butler, Tony Parker, etc have been “finds” at the bottom of the first round.

[MtlJeff]

How great of picks were Kuzma and Hart? To get those two guys at 27 and 30th is incredible.

 

The surprising thing is actually how many good players over the years have been drafted that low. As a very casual NBA observer, I would have argued that drafting past the lottery is basically worthless - but some real talent has come out of 27-30. The NBA.com website lets you filter the draft database by overall position, so you can scan down th list pretty easily. Jimmy Butler, Tony Parker, etc have been "finds" at the bottom of the first round.

 

Teams are pretty good now at evaluating the expected return on every position in the draft. It's still a pretty poor return for almost every pick outside the top 10. You find a Kuzma it's pretty good. There's a lot of finds for sure, but more often than not the guys picked 26th or whatever end up out of the league in 2 years if they ever even make a roster

 

I just randomly picked #25....here are the last 10 guys picked at that spot

 

Moritz Wagner

Brice Johnson

Andres Pocedniz

Jarell Martin

Clint Capela

Reggie Bullock

Tony Wroten

Marshon Brooks

Dominique Jones

Roddy Beaubois

 

Yikes.....that was actually worse than i thought it would be.

 

Basically 1 starter who is pretty darn good. Another (Beaubois) who was pretty highly regarded as a prospect before injuries.

 

I think if you picked any number between 20-30 it would be like this, more or less. You might get 3 good players and 7 chumps , more likely 2 and 8

 

That's why teams are willing to trade late first rounders more now

[MtlJeff]

I just did #26 for fun and it's the same.....a tad better. You get Taj Gibson, and my boy Andre Roberson (The GREATEST DAMN DEFENDER THERE IS!!!!!)

 

.....sigh i miss Andre Roberson. Come back please.

[raynorfan1]

No doubt, it's not "easy" to pick a great player in the late 20's.

 

But my perception has been that outside the lottery was basically worthless. But there have been legit hall of famers picked late 20s.

 

Don't get me wrong, it's not the rule, or even the exception. But it's possible.

[pinhigh27]

I mean tom brady, etc etc it happens. The studs generally come from the lottery though.

[raynorfan1]

I mean tom brady, etc etc it happens. The studs generally come from the lottery though.

 

Football, baseball, and hockey are a whole different deal.

 

Plenty of value in the football draft deep into the second round and beyond. Brady's an anomaly, but it's not like the NBA where anything past ~10 is really low probabilities.

[MtlJeff]

The interesting thing with the NBA if I recall too is that while being in the lottery is very important, Beyond the #1 pick there's not as much certainty at any spots

 

Every year there will be stars from the top 15, but it's not usually as top weighted as you might expect. There's not a huge difference between say pick 4 and pick 8. And there's been a lot of busts from the #2 and #3 spots.

 

#1 is almost always good. Anthony Bennett really the only confirmed bust in the past little while

[raynorfan1]

The interesting thing with the NBA if I recall too is that while being in the lottery is very important, Beyond the #1 pick there's not as much certainty at any spots

 

Every year there will be stars from the top 15, but it's not usually as top weighted as you might expect. There's not a huge difference between say pick 4 and pick 8. And there's been a lot of busts from the #2 and #3 spots.

 

#1 is almost always good. Anthony Bennett really the only confirmed bust in the past little while

 

We haven't confirmed Markelle Fultz as a bust yet? Or do we really think Jason Tatum was the #1 pick that year? I guess if you don't play, it's hard to suck...

 

#1 is a good place to be. No doubt. But if you think about NBA "greats" who weren't #1...it's pretty daunting.

[MtlJeff]

Fultz is on pretty thin ice. But we've seen a lot of guys rebound and have nice careers too. Though admittedly his issues seem mental, and there's been zero progress on his shot, if anything regression lately

 

But I recall guys like Shawn Livingston who were busts for a while and ended up carving out nice careers

 

So we have to wait a bit

 

 

 

 

[pinhigh27]

not sure 6 ppg for a lottery pick is a nice career

 

and like you said I think fultz has way bigger issues. cant shoot, out of shape. pretty tragic story

[MtlJeff]

He's been in the league a long time now and was a legit rotation guy on a championship team. They played him crunch time in NBA finals. Stats or no stats that's not bad

 

If Fultz can stay in the league 10+ years as a rotation guy I won't call him a bust

 

 

 

 

[raynorfan1]

If Fultz can stay in the league 10+ years as a rotation guy I won't call him a bust

 

Come on. 10+ years as a rotation guy? That's not an argument for "#1 picks are safe choices".

 

A #1 pick should be enough to transform one of the worst teams in the league (hence the #1 pick) into a playoff contender.

[MtlJeff]

If Fultz can stay in the league 10+ years as a rotation guy I won't call him a bust

 

Come on. 10+ years as a rotation guy? That's not an argument for "#1 picks are safe choices".

 

A #1 pick should be enough to transform one of the worst teams in the league (hence the #1 pick) into a playoff contender.

 

He'd be one of the worst #1 picks of the past 15 years if that's what he does. That's pretty good return on the spot overall

 

I guess what I mean is I wouldn't consider him a bust as a player. But considering the spot drafted it's a poor return

[raynorfan1]

Interesting question. In the NBA, who's the greatest draft value of all time?

 

By definition, can't be the #1 pick, because you'd "expect" them to be great.

 

In the NFL, it's obviously Brady; 6th round to in the conversation for greatest of all time.

 

In the NBA?

 

Jordan at #3?

Bird at #6?

Curry at #7?

Rodman at 27?

[MtlJeff]

That's a great question. Curry at #7 if he finishes his career with like 4-5 titles and 3 MVP's.... which is possible

 

I mean he'd be a top 10 player all-time right

 

For a #7 pick that's amazing return

 

Kawhi Leonard is a 2 time DPOY and finals MVP. Still in mid 20's....15th pick I think

[scratchswinger]

NBA Redraft tomorrow... Would Fultz go ahead of Hart? Hart looks like an above average two way NBA Player that could be a starter on a really good team. Fultz has potential but might not get a second contract at this point.

[scratchswinger]

How great of picks were Kuzma and Hart? To get those two guys at 27 and 30th is incredible.

 

remember last yr when I said kuzma was better than ball and everybody told me that was crazy

 

As sits now you were right, I still have hope for Lonzo as he shows flashes of brilliance on both ends of the floor. I think he can realistically lead the NBA in assists, guards in rebounds and be the best PG defender in the league all in one season. LeBron has impacted his stats but it has not stopped him from contributing in a lot of ways that stats don't account for.

[tocino]

Not every class will have a generational talent... it's more likely you're going to end up with an all-star type player in the first 3 picks or at least a starter-level player. If you're picking in the top 3 and that player ends up being a role player than that's definitely a bust in my opinion... however, I will say that sometimes it's just a bad year to have a top pick and you end up getting stuck with what you got

 

Interesting question. In the NBA, who's the greatest draft value of all time?

 

By definition, can't be the #1 pick, because you'd "expect" them to be great.

 

In the NFL, it's obviously Brady; 6th round to in the conversation for greatest of all time.

 

In the NBA?

 

Jordan at #3?

Bird at #6?

Curry at #7?

Rodman at 27?

 

I think it has to be Jordan picked #3. I mean I still consider him the GOAT and i know I'm not alone in that statement. That would be a tremendous value if he ended up getting picked at the 2nd spot

[scratchswinger]

Kobe at 13

[F171615]

The interesting thing with the NBA if I recall too is that while being in the lottery is very important, Beyond the #1 pick there's not as much certainty at any spots

 

Every year there will be stars from the top 15, but it's not usually as top weighted as you might expect. There's not a huge difference between say pick 4 and pick 8. And there's been a lot of busts from the #2 and #3 spots.

 

#1 is almost always good. Anthony Bennett really the only confirmed bust in the past little while

 

 

Another factor to consider: the later a player is drafted, then usually the better a situation a young player has to develop. Being drafted by a better team, or later in the draft usually will give a young player a better opportunity to develop. For example, if Kawhi Leonard was drafted by 2nd overall by the T'Wolves, he may have just washed out of the league under their tutelage.

[raynorfan1]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

[MtlJeff]

Kobe at 13

 

Oh man I forgot about Kobe. Also a great pick

[MtlJeff]

NBA Redraft tomorrow... Would Fultz go ahead of Hart? Hart looks like an above average two way NBA Player that could be a starter on a really good team. Fultz has potential but might not get a second contract at this point.

 

If you could really redraft, Fultz would be fascinating. I honestly don't know where he goes, some teams would flat out refuse to draft him. You'd probably have some team take a shot at him in the 15-20 range

[raynorfan1]

Kobe at 13

 

Oh man I forgot about Kobe. Also a great pick

 

At 13 you also have Karl Malone, who's #3 all time in Win Shares (if you believe in that metric...).

[tocino]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

 

and somehow the warriors end up with todd fuller with the pick before kobe *SMH*

[MtlJeff]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

 

and somehow the warriors end up with todd fuller with the pick before kobe *SMH*

 

Yeah but you got Curry instead of Rubio and johhny Flynn, so victory there!

[raynorfan1]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

 

and somehow the warriors end up with todd fuller with the pick before kobe *SMH*

 

I don't see how Warriors fans are in any position to be unhappy right now...

 

Also, IIRC, didn't Kobe and the Lakers effectively rig the draft so that only they could reasonably pick him?

[jerebear21]

toni kukoc 2nd round, 29th

[tocino]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

 

and somehow the warriors end up with todd fuller with the pick before kobe *SMH*

 

I don't see how Warriors fans are in any position to be unhappy right now...

 

oh im not unhappy... but outside of a few bright seasons (Run TMC era, Chris Webber's rookie year, and the We Believe team), the warriors suffered from 3 decades of inept ownership, terrible front office decisions, and/or just plain bad luck before they eventually drafted Curry. Looking back at those prior draft classes actually makes me appreciate this current team even more.

[tocino]

Kobe at 13

 

That 1996 Draft was stacked.

 

10 of the first 20 picks were all-stars at some point. Three MVPs. Four first ballot Hall of Fame players.

 

and somehow the warriors end up with todd fuller with the pick before kobe *SMH*

 

I don't see how Warriors fans are in any position to be unhappy right now...

 

Also, IIRC, didn't Kobe and the Lakers effectively rig the draft so that only they could reasonably pick him?

 

i think kobe and his agent basically told the hornets he wasn't going to play for them so he got traded for i think it was vlade divac at the time. I remember reading Jerry West was pretty enamored with kobe but this was back when straight-out-of-high-school draftees were considered huge risks. So maybe the hornets were actually pretty thrilled about getting a front-line center for an untested, rookie guard?