At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

[Matt J]

Better question may be when the decline of modern man becomes irreversible?

[HatsForBats]

Those of us who are using analogies are just trying to point out that there are plenty of other activities that are time consuming and expensive, and their industries are flourishing (mainly because they stay within the market's limits). Can you really argue with me on that basic point?

 

I have always hated these 'golf is going to disappear' threads and only respond to add some balance and perspective, but you know what, I think I'm done with this topic going forward. It's just stupid.

 

I am not trying to argue with you on the basic point other than to point out that the word 'are' should be replaced with 'can be ' for Cycling, hiking and many of the other activities people are trying to use. ie.plenty of other activities that CAN BE time consuming and expensive. The point being I can cycle the same route as the guys with the fancy bikes and outfits on a borrowed ten speed at no additional cost to me. I can go to my grandmothers and hike the mountains, coal piles, quarries, trails and thickets for the full weekend daylight hours in the clothes I am wearing right now and with the back pack that is in my car. No cost other than wear and tear and costs to get there. The same cannot be said for golf. I can borrow a set of clubs, balls, tees etc. but to actually play I am going to have to pay someone to legally be allowed to play. It can be done on the cheap but not as cheaply as some of the other activities people are bringing up. Simple as that.

 

In no way am I arguing that golf is going to disappear over this or is even in trouble because of this. If you read my other posts in the thread you would see this. No need to get bothered by it. I agree we need the balance and/or perspective added which is all I am trying to add to both sides even though I don't agree with the original posters concerns.

[Golfnuck]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

[BeerPerHole]

Won't get into my background much but I have a good pulse on the macroeconomy. Golf will continue to decline in America, at a slow, steady pace. It will continue to get better with fits and starts around the Pacific rim and emerging economies. It's just mirroring the economics.

 

I grew up around general aviation. My earliest memory is sitting in my dad's little Aircoupe while he shot landings in San Jose (now there's no general aviation there). Back then, and through my college years, little public airports were bustling with common men flying, washing and tinkering with their airplanes. Now, of the hangars that have not been demolished with the removal of such little airports are often filled with cars and boats. The airports are silent ghost towns, even on Saturdays. In the flightpath over my house to the local strip (formerly an air force base) 90% of the traffic is government aircraft. My point is that golf, being a luxury, will go the way of general aviation. GA was just the canary in the coal mine. Golf is one of the last miners still standing...

[thug the bunny]

Those of us who are using analogies are just trying to point out that there are plenty of other activities that are time consuming and expensive, and their industries are flourishing (mainly because they stay within the market's limits). Can you really argue with me on that basic point?

 

I have always hated these 'golf is going to disappear' threads and only respond to add some balance and perspective, but you know what, I think I'm done with this topic going forward. It's just stupid.

 

I am not trying to argue with you on the basic point other than to point out that the word 'are' should be replaced with 'can be ' for Cycling, hiking and many of the other activities people are trying to use. ie.plenty of other activities that CAN BE time consuming and expensive. The point being I can cycle the same route as the guys with the fancy bikes and outfits on a borrowed ten speed at no additional cost to me. I can go to my grandmothers and hike the mountains, coal piles, quarries, trails and thickets for the full weekend daylight hours in the clothes I am wearing right now and with the back pack that is in my car. No cost other than wear and tear and costs to get there. The same cannot be said for golf. I can borrow a set of clubs, balls, tees etc. but to actually play I am going to have to pay someone to legally be allowed to play. It can be done on the cheap but not as cheaply as some of the other activities people are bringing up. Simple as that.

 

In no way am I arguing that golf is going to disappear over this or is even in trouble because of this. If you read my other posts in the thread you would see this. No need to get bothered by it. I agree we need the balance and/or perspective added which is all I am trying to add to both sides even though I don't agree with the original posters concerns.

 

Oh, OK. Thanks for clarifying. I thought you were a chicken little. But to clarify my point, even the expensive ends of those activities are by no means in trouble or going to die.

 

I'm still going to try to stay out of these threads in the future. The next one should be in about 3, 2, 1........

[melo]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. I certainly never insinuated that no one would ever play again. However, there is a point in the decline of many things (we are approaching it with gas powered vehicles), that the trend downward can no longer be reversed or halted. Sometimes that is net positive, and sometimes that is net negative. This is precisely why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino or Condor. No, we cannot afford yachts, even though I probably wouldn't buy one if I could, but I love to golf, and i shudder to think of the day when they only golf available is at a private club that costs 50k or 100k to join and 1,000 or 2,000 per month.

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

[BeerPerHole]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

[HawkeyeHacker]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

I really would love to hear it. Baseball will be around as long as any sport, save for maybe soccer. It may not be at it's peak popularity, but to say little league will be completely gone in 20 years is out of this world silly.

[BeerPerHole]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

I really would love to hear it. Baseball will be around as long as any sport, save for maybe soccer. It may not be at it's peak popularity, but to say little league will be completely gone in 20 years is out of this world silly.

Yeah, I'll rephrase that to "very, very rare". There will be much more distance between teams.

[Golfnuck]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

So here is the actual OP post -

 

I've been reading recently about the impact of millennial habits, cost of living/economic issues, and time constraints or time preferences on industries. Data seems to show that golf is, or will be, one of the most severely impacted industries by these changes. Some data I have read suggests that 83% of regular golfers are over 40, without about 37% of all golfers being over 60. Clearly, even with the increases in life expectancy, golf can't be sustained as the older generations die off. As they pass, that's about 10 million regular, loyal golfers that need to be replaced...so my question is...at what point are we unable to reverse the trend? And what can we do to to attract more loyal golfers from those who are under 39?

 

I have taken the highlighted comment literally so if one is unable to reverse the tread and cannot be sustained as the older generation die off .............. what is meant by that? To me that implies that it will eventually disappear.

 

This is supported by the title "At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible..." - how else should this be interpreted?

 

So now after 6 pages the OP clarifies to say -

 

"I never said that golf would disappear. I certainly never insinuated that no one would ever play again. However, there is a point in the decline of many things (we are approaching it with gas powered vehicles), that the trend downward can no longer be reversed or halted. Sometimes that is net positive, and sometimes that is net negative. This is precisely why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino or Condor. No, we cannot afford yachts, even though I probably wouldn't buy one if I could, but I love to golf, and i shudder to think of the day when they only golf available is at a private club that costs 50k or 100k to join and 1,000 or 2,000 per month."

 

If a downward tread can no longer be reversed or halted doesn't that mean eventually it will disappear. Obviously my logic is flawed. And when it is pointed out that is why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino and Condor, to me the reason for conservation is that we are trying to prevent them from extinction ........ again mirroring the implied extinction of golf.

 

So BeerPerHole what did you think the OP was saying?

 

I was not able to read in the OP that what he was really saying what the at what point will the decline of golf to a game for the rich only be irreversible .

[new2g0lf]

Won't get into my background much but I have a good pulse on the macroeconomy. Golf will continue to decline in America, at a slow, steady pace. It will continue to get better with fits and starts around the Pacific rim and emerging economies. It's just mirroring the economics.

 

I grew up around general aviation. My earliest memory is sitting in my dad's little Aircoupe while he shot landings in San Jose (now there's no general aviation there). Back then, and through my college years, little public airports were bustling with common men flying, washing and tinkering with their airplanes. Now, of the hangars that have not been demolished with the removal of such little airports are often filled with cars and boats. The airports are silent ghost towns, even on Saturdays. In the flightpath over my house to the local strip (formerly an air force base) 90% of the traffic is government aircraft. My point is that golf, being a luxury, will go the way of general aviation. GA was just the canary in the coal mine. Golf is one of the last miners still standing...

 

I'm not sure you can compare aviation to golf, there are a lot of hurdles to overcome before you can become a pilot and the cost of plane, hangers, insurance, upkeep is a lot more significant than golf. Also single engine planes are considered pretty risky to fly in despite their ability to glide longer.

 

Golf is as expensive as you want to make it. You go on eBay and you can buy a set of clubs for $250, 100 preowned golf balls for $50 and you're set. You're going to just want to spend some time at the range initially which is $15 a large bucket and when you're ready local courses here in NY are $30 - $50 per round and even cheaper during twilight hours.

 

Golf gets expensive when you start buying new clubs, premium balls and want to join a private country club, but if you're on a budget it can be pretty reasonable.

[melo]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

So here is the actual OP post -

 

I've been reading recently about the impact of millennial habits, cost of living/economic issues, and time constraints or time preferences on industries. Data seems to show that golf is, or will be, one of the most severely impacted industries by these changes. Some data I have read suggests that 83% of regular golfers are over 40, without about 37% of all golfers being over 60. Clearly, even with the increases in life expectancy, golf can't be sustained as the older generations die off. As they pass, that's about 10 million regular, loyal golfers that need to be replaced...so my question is...at what point are we unable to reverse the trend? And what can we do to to attract more loyal golfers from those who are under 39?

 

I have taken the highlighted comment literally so if one is unable to reverse the tread and cannot be sustained as the older generation die off .............. what is meant by that? To me that implies that it will eventually disappear.

 

This is supported by the title "At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible..." - how else should this be interpreted?

 

So now after 6 pages the OP clarifies to say -

 

"I never said that golf would disappear. I certainly never insinuated that no one would ever play again. However, there is a point in the decline of many things (we are approaching it with gas powered vehicles), that the trend downward can no longer be reversed or halted. Sometimes that is net positive, and sometimes that is net negative. This is precisely why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino or Condor. No, we cannot afford yachts, even though I probably wouldn't buy one if I could, but I love to golf, and i shudder to think of the day when they only golf available is at a private club that costs 50k or 100k to join and 1,000 or 2,000 per month."

 

If a downward tread can no longer be reversed or halted doesn't that mean eventually it will disappear. Obviously my logic is flawed. And when it is pointed out that is why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino and Condor, to me the reason for conservation is that we are trying to prevent them from extinction ........ again mirroring the implied extinction of golf.

 

So BeerPerHole what did you think the OP was saying?

 

I was not able to read in the OP that what he was really saying what the at what point will the decline of golf to a game for the rich only be irreversible .

 

I mean that golf started out as a very elite sport for wealthy folks in this country, and it took, basically 100 years in the United States for it to become a mainstream sport that was played and participated in by the masses. Some of that was Arnie, some of that was Tiger, some of that was the golf course explosion...there were lots of factors...but currently, the "masses" aren't playing, and if that trend continues, what you will have is golf back to being an elitist, and even more expensive sport.

[raynorfan1]

Won't get into my background much but I have a good pulse on the macroeconomy. Golf will continue to decline in America, at a slow, steady pace. It will continue to get better with fits and starts around the Pacific rim and emerging economies. It's just mirroring the economics.

 

I grew up around general aviation. My earliest memory is sitting in my dad's little Aircoupe while he shot landings in San Jose (now there's no general aviation there). Back then, and through my college years, little public airports were bustling with common men flying, washing and tinkering with their airplanes. Now, of the hangars that have not been demolished with the removal of such little airports are often filled with cars and boats. The airports are silent ghost towns, even on Saturdays. In the flightpath over my house to the local strip (formerly an air force base) 90% of the traffic is government aircraft. My point is that golf, being a luxury, will go the way of general aviation. GA was just the canary in the coal mine. Golf is one of the last miners still standing...

Also single engine planes are considered pretty risky to fly in despite their ability to glide longer.

 

Not to derail the thread, but considered risky by who? I dare say that multi-engine planes are more risky in general aviation...but I don't have the stats to back that up. In both cases, much safer than driving around town in a car...

[JeffreySpicoli]

I don't buy this decline narrative. It's a vague, fuzzy all-encompassing story that mirrors grand narratives about the decline of civilizations. It's entertaining and tugs at emotions but it lacks substance.

 

Instead we're just seeing a correction due to the overbuilding of courses and the Tiger Woods effect prior to the Great Recession. Nothing more, nothing less. And no big deal.

[JeffreySpicoli]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

So here is the actual OP post -

 

I've been reading recently about the impact of millennial habits, cost of living/economic issues, and time constraints or time preferences on industries. Data seems to show that golf is, or will be, one of the most severely impacted industries by these changes. Some data I have read suggests that 83% of regular golfers are over 40, without about 37% of all golfers being over 60. Clearly, even with the increases in life expectancy, golf can't be sustained as the older generations die off. As they pass, that's about 10 million regular, loyal golfers that need to be replaced...so my question is...at what point are we unable to reverse the trend? And what can we do to to attract more loyal golfers from those who are under 39?

 

I have taken the highlighted comment literally so if one is unable to reverse the tread and cannot be sustained as the older generation die off .............. what is meant by that? To me that implies that it will eventually disappear.

 

This is supported by the title "At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible..." - how else should this be interpreted?

 

So now after 6 pages the OP clarifies to say -

 

"I never said that golf would disappear. I certainly never insinuated that no one would ever play again. However, there is a point in the decline of many things (we are approaching it with gas powered vehicles), that the trend downward can no longer be reversed or halted. Sometimes that is net positive, and sometimes that is net negative. This is precisely why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino or Condor. No, we cannot afford yachts, even though I probably wouldn't buy one if I could, but I love to golf, and i shudder to think of the day when they only golf available is at a private club that costs 50k or 100k to join and 1,000 or 2,000 per month."

 

If a downward tread can no longer be reversed or halted doesn't that mean eventually it will disappear. Obviously my logic is flawed. And when it is pointed out that is why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino and Condor, to me the reason for conservation is that we are trying to prevent them from extinction ........ again mirroring the implied extinction of golf.

 

So BeerPerHole what did you think the OP was saying?

 

I was not able to read in the OP that what he was really saying what the at what point will the decline of golf to a game for the rich only be irreversible .

 

I mean that golf started out as a very elite sport for wealthy folks in this country, and it took, basically 100 years in the United States for it to become a mainstream sport that was played and participated in by the masses. Some of that was Arnie, some of that was Tiger, some of that was the golf course explosion...there were lots of factors...but currently, the "masses" aren't playing, and if that trend continues, what you will have is golf back to being an elitist, and even more expensive sport.

 

Not so sure about your take on this. Francis Ouimet would beg to differ, for instance.

[thug the bunny]

At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

 

 

Let's go back to the original question.

 

NEVER.

 

Golf will never disappear. Period. Never.

 

It may retract back to being mainly a sport of the upper middle class who have both the time and resources to play it but what is wrong with that.

 

99.999999999999999% of us can't afford a multi million dollar yacht but does that mean that industry will die. Of course not.

 

The golf equipment industry (both manufacturers and retailers) will go thru major contraction but this is due to massive growth during the Tiger era in an effort to jump on the band wagon as the "it" sport. It was not rational growth but just to appease the stock markets.

 

But because golf will never disappear neither will the golf equipment industry.

 

Is there anyone that seriously believe golf will disappear altogether ........... really !!!!!!!!!!!

 

I never said that golf would disappear. ...

 

Let me use a cheap sport, baseball, as an example. It used to be America's past time. It is still more affordable to watch and play than most other sports, but it is declining drastically - even with a host of young, talented players in MLB. My son's league couldn't even fill his team, so they had to consolidate and put more children on each other team, which decreases playing time. That is the second year in a row. Is that a problem? I don't know. Maybe baseball doesn't matter. But to my son, it matters.

Yeah, I caught that too. Actually made me go back and read your OP and say, "He didn't say that!" People are funny...

 

Little league baseball for boys will be completely gone in 20 years. I won't say why I think that because it would sounds nuts to most people. I hope I'm wrong, too.

 

So here is the actual OP post -

 

I've been reading recently about the impact of millennial habits, cost of living/economic issues, and time constraints or time preferences on industries. Data seems to show that golf is, or will be, one of the most severely impacted industries by these changes. Some data I have read suggests that 83% of regular golfers are over 40, without about 37% of all golfers being over 60. Clearly, even with the increases in life expectancy, golf can't be sustained as the older generations die off. As they pass, that's about 10 million regular, loyal golfers that need to be replaced...so my question is...at what point are we unable to reverse the trend? And what can we do to to attract more loyal golfers from those who are under 39?

 

I have taken the highlighted comment literally so if one is unable to reverse the tread and cannot be sustained as the older generation die off .............. what is meant by that? To me that implies that it will eventually disappear.

 

This is supported by the title "At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible..." - how else should this be interpreted?

 

So now after 6 pages the OP clarifies to say -

 

"I never said that golf would disappear. I certainly never insinuated that no one would ever play again. However, there is a point in the decline of many things (we are approaching it with gas powered vehicles), that the trend downward can no longer be reversed or halted. Sometimes that is net positive, and sometimes that is net negative. This is precisely why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino or Condor. No, we cannot afford yachts, even though I probably wouldn't buy one if I could, but I love to golf, and i shudder to think of the day when they only golf available is at a private club that costs 50k or 100k to join and 1,000 or 2,000 per month."

 

If a downward tread can no longer be reversed or halted doesn't that mean eventually it will disappear. Obviously my logic is flawed. And when it is pointed out that is why we try to conserve animals like the Rhino and Condor, to me the reason for conservation is that we are trying to prevent them from extinction ........ again mirroring the implied extinction of golf.

 

So BeerPerHole what did you think the OP was saying?

 

I was not able to read in the OP that what he was really saying what the at what point will the decline of golf to a game for the rich only be irreversible .

 

Yes. "Irreversible downward trend" mathematically means that it never trends upwards, meaning that it is always approaching zero, meaning it will eventually not exist. No misinterpretation here.

 

However, I don't believe golf will even approach the point of only private club exclusiveness. At my club I have been a member for 7 yrs and I still have as much of a problem finding a parking space today as my first year. And, I see a good amount of young studs with their backwards caps and bluetooth speakers enjoying themselves (that is for a different thread). Golf is just too alluring and addicting to ever fall off the map. I hope I can get a tee time tomorrow...

[2Maybe3Putt]

Golf shouldn't decline I think although many drunk fill it up things like top golf get more people interested in the sport

[Ferguson]

A decline can occur for decades with no real bottom. Look at the music industry that started its decline with those black-eye peas.

Awful music. Just went downhill from there.

[Golfnuck]

"I mean that golf started out as a very elite sport for wealthy folks in this country, and it took, basically 100 years in the United States for it to become a mainstream sport that was played and participated in by the masses. Some of that was Arnie, some of that was Tiger, some of that was the golf course explosion...there were lots of factors...but currently, the "masses" aren't playing, and if that trend continues, what you will have is golf back to being an elitist, and even more expensive sport."

 

Thanks for clarifying melo.

 

Your comment that golf may retreat back from being a mainsteam sport has some merit.

 

Golf requires a large amount of land.

 

Often this land is in high density urban areas.

 

Land is expensive. Also it is very expensive to maintain a golf course.

 

In the future many cities may not be able to financially justify the operation of a public golf course.

 

That city owned piece of land may benefit a larger portion of its citizens by turning it into a park with some baseball fields or tennis courts.

 

Looking at a typical 10 hour day a golf course may serve (10 hours * 9 groups per hour * 4) 360 golfers at max.

 

As a park, baseball field or tennis court many more people will be able to utilize it.

 

As for privately owned golf courses land in urban areas is very expensive.

 

There will be pressure for owners of those golf courses to realize the value on the land.

 

My golf club sits right at the edge of some high density developments. In fact a piece of property just beside our number six green will soon be redeveloped into two 35 plus story condos.

 

Our club owns 176 acres of land. If 60% can be developed into lots at 6 lots per acre that is roughly 634 lots. With serviced lots selling for $1,300,000 in our area and suppose we reduce that to $1,000,000 for a un-serviced lot, the land has a potential value of $634,000,000.

 

If we were not a member owned club there would be some pressure for the owner to redeveloped the golf course.

 

Our club is in the City of Coquitlam which is a suburb of Vancouver.

 

There are three public courses and two private courses inside the City of Vancouver that would be worth 2 or 3 times more than that !!!!!

 

And there is a private course in West Vancouver (Capilano GC) that is likely worth even more than the Vancouver courses.

[raynorfan1]

Just to take a step back on this, is there a decline in golf?

 

It's like the political commentators who continue to talk about the US economy in a "recovery"...this is flat-out boom. Biggest GDP ever. 30% bigger than it was in 2008 (pre-calamity). But we're still "recovering".

 

Total rounds played has been stagnant or slowly growing from ~460 million. The absolute peak was somewhere around 2007, with ~550 million rounds played. We're off about 20% from that peak (and reasonably, 90 million rounds is a lot). But there's no sign of a "continued" decline. Golf took a hit in the recession and post-Tiger era. No doubt.

 

But things have plateaued and seem pretty stable / upward trending now.

[JeffreySpicoli]

Just to take a step back on this, is there a decline in golf?

 

It's like the political commentators who continue to talk about the US economy in a "recovery"...this is flat-out boom. Biggest GDP ever. 30% bigger than it was in 2008 (pre-calamity). But we're still "recovering".

 

Total rounds played has been stagnant or slowly growing from ~460 million. The absolute peak was somewhere around 2007, with ~550 million rounds played. We're off about 20% from that peak (and reasonably, 90 million rounds is a lot). But there's no sign of a "continued" decline. Golf took a hit in the recession and post-Tiger era. No doubt.

 

But things have plateaued and seem pretty stable / upward trending now.

 

The National Golf Foundation arguably provides the best data regarding golfers in the US. According to their data, there is not a systemic decline in participation. Here's a summary of their most recent report:

 

https://www.golfdigest.com/story/the-ngf-annual-golf-participation-report-uncovers-favorable-trends-for-the-games-future

 

(As far as your analogy to the US economy, that only holds up a little bit. The total US economy is doing well but it is not considered a full-on recovery due to a clustering of economic benefits to a small percentage of households at the top.)

[thug the bunny]

So, how does the NGF obtain their data and make conclusions? For total rounds played they must get data from a certain population of courses for certain time intervals and then extrapolate to the entire US for any year. But that statistical method can be very inaccurate. The variability of participation across geography and time of year must be quite large. Plus, I went to their website and they claim to even break down the data by age, sex, ethnicity, and income level. I have never checked in at any pro shop ever and filled out a form giving them that data. Plus, they are an independent organization, but I wonder who really supports them. So, I am more than a bit skeptical bout them...

[JeffreySpicoli]

So, how does the NGF obtain their data and make conclusions? For total rounds played they must get data from a certain population of courses for certain time intervals and then extrapolate to the entire US for any year. But that statistical method can be very inaccurate. The variability of participation across geography and time of year must be quite large. Plus, I went to their website and they claim to even break down the data by age, sex, ethnicity, and income level. I have never checked in at any pro shop ever and filled out a form giving them that data. Plus, they are an independent organization, but I wonder who really supports them. So, I am more than a bit skeptical bout them...

 

It's pretty much the only consistent measurement of golf participation in the US. I share some of your concerns. On the other hand, given margin of error, their data points to no significant decline which is why I noted their work.

[HoosierHacker89]

I wouldn't be too concerned. The economy isn't exactly booming, but lets just face it golf isn't for everyone either. It still has an elitist mentality around it with the masses. I think that turns people away as much as anything, and golf is expensive. Have you guys seen the prices of a new driver? $400+ isn't something most can afford for a toy. Golf will survive, and I believe it will grow again. I think Tiger Woods blew it up, and its now getting back to a place of "normal". I am 28 and play once a week. I live alone and have a good paying job. I can afford to play golf, but I make it a priority to afford it. Back when I was living with a woman and her 2 kids the household expenses were much higher, and it was simply hard to find the free time to play. I think most golfers being over 40 shouldn't be surprising. Being in your 20s and 30s is the time when a lot of people are starting out their careers, having kids, and getting married. These three things should have a huge priority over golf. I am a firm believer in balance and doing things for your own person, but the idea of a 28 year old playing 3 or 4 times a week isn't likely. I am so tired of hearing millennials being blamed for things.

[acemandrake]

In business, the strong survive & the weak perish. This is true for golf courses & golf equipment companies.

 

Golf is a niche sport. Some "more opportunistic" types tried to market it as an activity for everyone. Can't blame them for trying but it never was true.

 

News of golf's future demise are greatly exaggerated. Flux in participation? Yes. Disappearance? No.

[thug the bunny]

So, how does the NGF obtain their data and make conclusions? For total rounds played they must get data from a certain population of courses for certain time intervals and then extrapolate to the entire US for any year. But that statistical method can be very inaccurate. The variability of participation across geography and time of year must be quite large. Plus, I went to their website and they claim to even break down the data by age, sex, ethnicity, and income level. I have never checked in at any pro shop ever and filled out a form giving them that data. Plus, they are an independent organization, but I wonder who really supports them. So, I am more than a bit skeptical bout them...

 

It's pretty much the only consistent measurement of golf participation in the US. I share some of your concerns. On the other hand, given margin of error, their data points to no significant decline which is why I noted their work.

 

Wait, I thought they were the ones putting forth the decline in participation? (encouraging golfers to open their wallets and support the game they love)

[JeffreySpicoli]

So, how does the NGF obtain their data and make conclusions? For total rounds played they must get data from a certain population of courses for certain time intervals and then extrapolate to the entire US for any year. But that statistical method can be very inaccurate. The variability of participation across geography and time of year must be quite large. Plus, I went to their website and they claim to even break down the data by age, sex, ethnicity, and income level. I have never checked in at any pro shop ever and filled out a form giving them that data. Plus, they are an independent organization, but I wonder who really supports them. So, I am more than a bit skeptical bout them...

 

It's pretty much the only consistent measurement of golf participation in the US. I share some of your concerns. On the other hand, given margin of error, their data points to no significant decline which is why I noted their work.

 

Wait, I thought they were the ones putting forth the decline in participation? (encouraging golfers to open their wallets and support the game they love)

 

Not how I read it! They may be disappointed.

[mark174ace]

So the question is this. At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible? Let me tell you what happened to me today and sadly parts of this story is becoming more and more the norm. I had a 7:40 am tee time at a nice course this morning where I was paired up with a threesome. It is a 50 minute drive to get there and I arrive a half hour early which I have observed is becoming more and more of a rarity. It seems like screeching into the parking lot 10 minutes before is norm.

 

So I check in and hit a few quick balls to warm up and then putt a few. Someone comes up to me to inform me there was a "mistake" with the tee time the three some made. Translation: The threesome just showed up with a fourth because they are stupid and thoughtless and didn't even think to call first. Seen this far too many times before and know better and so does everyone reading this. I even gave the guy a look like how stupid do you think I am?

 

Fortunately the next group was a threesome so I didn't have to wait. Being the a-hole that I am I could not help but ask the guy what would have happened if there was nothing but foursomes for the next hour? Big surprise he had no real answer for that and didn't really appreciate the question. We all know what he is really thinking. Four people spend more money than one so I can get a refund and promptly go **** myself if I do not want to wait an hour.

 

So it comes time for the foursome to tee off and they are nowhere to be seen. Group ahead is just short of the green and they are not even on the tee. Their names get called a second time over the loudspeaker and once again nowhere to be seen. They finally show up on the tee and by the time they get their act together and hit 6 shots off the tee the group ahead is already well off the second tee. This is what happens when you accommodate jackasses.

 

The group I was paired up with ended up being some of the worst golfers I have ever played with. All three of them hit second tee shots on the first two holes. It wasn't until the 4th hole I finally saw one of them hit a drive more than 100 yards. One of the guys was in his 30's and from Scotland off all places!!!! He was slower than crap and half the time had no idea where his ball was. On several occasions he was looking for his ball 30-40 yards away from where it actually was. To top it off the magnificent threesome were playing that stupid wolf game and spend all kinds of time trying to keep that straight. I could keep going on and on about him.

 

I was playing well by my standards and was trying as hard as possible to keep my focus even though I was seemingly waiting forever to play my next shot at times. I managed to shoot a 77 which I am more than happy about, but the aggravation and BS I put up with cost me a couple of strokes and just put a complete damper on something that is supposed to be fun.

 

None of my friends or coworkers play golf so I play with a lot of strangers. I have been on an unbelievable run of being paired up with jackasses. I am playing the best golf of my life and I am at the point where I am not even sure I want to play once a week anymore. I can put up being paired up with idiots from time to time like anyone else here, but it is seemingly becoming the norm.

 

All you need to know is that if I am thinking about playing less golf than something is definitely is wrong. As long as the golf courses only care about $$$ the problems with the game are not going away. Plain and simple.

 

Thanks for reading my rant.

[BNGL]

Here's a fairly recent article from Forbes stating that one should be optimistic about golf...

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/erikmatuszewski/2017/01/23/heres-why-we-should-be-bullish-about-golf-in-2017/?s=trending#135f92f81365

[JeffreySpicoli]

So the question is this. At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible? Let me tell you what happened to me today and sadly parts of this story is becoming more and more the norm. I had a 7:40 am tee time at a nice course this morning where I was paired up with a threesome. It is a 50 minute drive to get there and I arrive a half hour early which I have observed is becoming more and more of a rarity. It seems like screeching into the parking lot 10 minutes before is norm.

 

So I check in and hit a few quick balls to warm up and then putt a few. Someone comes up to me to inform me there was a "mistake" with the tee time the three some made. Translation: The threesome just showed up with a fourth because they are stupid and thoughtless and didn't even think to call first. Seen this far too many times before and know better and so does everyone reading this. I even gave the guy a look like how stupid do you think I am?

 

Fortunately the next group was a threesome so I didn't have to wait. Being the a-hole that I am I could not help but ask the guy what would have happened if there was nothing but foursomes for the next hour? Big surprise he had no real answer for that and didn't really appreciate the question. We all know what he is really thinking. Four people spend more money than one so I can get a refund and promptly go **** myself if I do not want to wait an hour.

 

So it comes time for the foursome to tee off and they are nowhere to be seen. Group ahead is just short of the green and they are not even on the tee. Their names get called a second time over the loudspeaker and once again nowhere to be seen. They finally show up on the tee and by the time they get their act together and hit 6 shots off the tee the group ahead is already well off the second tee. This is what happens when you accommodate jackasses.

 

The group I was paired up with ended up being some of the worst golfers I have ever played with. All three of them hit second tee shots on the first two holes. It wasn't until the 4th hole I finally saw one of them hit a drive more than 100 yards. One of the guys was in his 30's and from Scotland off all places!!!! He was slower than crap and half the time had no idea where his ball was. On several occasions he was looking for his ball 30-40 yards away from where it actually was. To top it off the magnificent threesome were playing that stupid wolf game and spend all kinds of time trying to keep that straight. I could keep going on and on about him.

 

I was playing well by my standards and was trying as hard as possible to keep my focus even though I was seemingly waiting forever to play my next shot at times. I managed to shoot a 77 which I am more than happy about, but the aggravation and BS I put up with cost me a couple of strokes and just put a complete damper on something that is supposed to be fun.

 

None of my friends or coworkers play golf so I play with a lot of strangers. I have been on an unbelievable run of being paired up with jackasses. I am playing the best golf of my life and I am at the point where I am not even sure I want to play once a week anymore. I can put up being paired up with idiots from time to time like anyone else here, but it is seemingly becoming the norm.

 

All you need to know is that if I am thinking about playing less golf than something is definitely is wrong. As long as the golf courses only care about $$$ the problems with the game are not going away. Plain and simple.

 

Thanks for reading my rant.

 

This is a case for joining a private club.