At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

[melo]

Let me continue by discussing a couple of things.

 

1. There is no evidence that programs like the first tee do anything to grow the game of golf. They may find a few talented golfers who end up playing for life or getting a scholarship, but by in large taking low income inner city children and introducing them to golf is an exercise in futility. Unless they are able to escape the trappings of their socioeconomic situation as they age, they will not be playing golf.

 

2. Playing golf is not just a matter of "knowing about financial responsibility and budgeting." There is a large segment of Americans who would like to play golf and are VERY frugal with their money just to scrape by. If you have $50 left at the end of a month, the chances of you spending it on 4 hours by yourself (especially if you have a family are nil). In fact, that is a much larger generalization and assumption than anyone made about millennial. The average American has nothing left at the end of the month because they barely make enough to pay rent and feed themselves.

 

3. Golf is expensive. To even say it isn't shows how detached from reality and elitist some people are. At MINIMUM you need $132 to play your first round of golf ($100 For a junk set, $12 For balls, and your greens fee). Beginners lose a LOT of golf balls. Even at .25 each for used balls that adds up quickly. So could you play golf 4 times a month for $100, sure, but that's what some people spend on a car payment. Baseball, disc golf, basketball, football, mobile apps, online streamed games and tv services, gym memberships, and a TON of other things cost less than $100 a month and can be done far more often, or in drastically less time.

 

And to be clear, my original question wasn't about rich people who already play golf. We know that as long as the sport exists rich people will play and won't care what it costs. That also doesn't impact the overall health of the game.

[MountainGoat]

Let me continue by discussing a couple of things.

 

1. There is no evidence that programs like the first tee do anything to grow the game of golf. They may find a few talented golfers who end up playing for life or getting a scholarship, but by in large taking low income inner city children and introducing them to golf is an exercise in futility. Unless they are able to escape the trappings of their socioeconomic situation as they age, they will not be playing golf.

 

 

The First Tee program has been a total bust, as far as I can tell. What has worked is the Drive, Chip and Putt competition that concludes at Augusta National every year. This program appears to have brought kids out in droves. Suddenly, my local public course has dozens of 8 to 10-year-olds all fitted up with there little bags and Ricky Fowler caps, and the pros are putting them thru drive, chip and putt stations. I see parents giving their little kids lessons, and I see the kids listening. I never saw that before. I think those kids are probably the new golf demographic.

[HatsForBats]

2. Playing golf is not just a matter of "knowing about financial responsibility and budgeting." There is a large segment of Americans who would like to play golf and are VERY frugal with their money just to scrape by. If you have $50 left at the end of a month, the chances of you spending it on 4 hours by yourself (especially if you have a family are nil). In fact, that is a much larger generalization and assumption than anyone made about millennial. The average American has nothing left at the end of the month because they barely make enough to pay rent and feed themselves.

 

Your source for the bolded part? I think you are very wrong and those that are just scraping by will never be the driving force behind golf. That being said my father grew up dirt poor. His parents had 9 kids, 5 boys and 4 girls, on a coal miners salary. Yet 4 out the 5 boys found ways to play golf in their High School and after years.

 

3. Golf is expensive. To even say it isn't shows how detached from reality and elitist some people are. At MINIMUM you need $132 to play your first round of golf ($100 For a junk set, $12 For balls, and your greens fee). Beginners lose a LOT of golf balls. Even at .25 each for used balls that adds up quickly. So could you play golf 4 times a month for $100, sure, but that's what some people spend on a car payment. Baseball, disc golf, basketball, football, mobile apps, online streamed games and tv services, gym memberships, and a TON of other things cost less than $100 a month and can be done far more often, or in drastically less time.

 

You don't need that much to start. Whatever happened to a hand-me-down starter set like I have done for many people that wanted to try golf? Only about 10% of the US population plays golf. Increasing that by say 20 % to 12% total from the bottom end of the economic ladder is not going to be a boom for golf.

 

Time and money has always been a big factor in who plays. The younger you are the more likely you are to have a fuller social life, likely play other sports and have less disposable income. As people get older they can play less high impact sports, have more free time and from 35 to 65 they will in general have the most disposable income. It makes sense that the bulk of golfers are going to be older people. It's not something to freak out about. That's the way it will always be.

[hahanice]

Its just going back to what is usually is, a game for those who have extra time and extra money. This day in age, people are making less money=less disposable income=working more=no time for golf. Add to that the attention span of millennials who would much rather play Pokeman Go than be on a golf course.

 

 

I think you meant to say discretionary income. That's the bucket from which we dip for golf.

 

 

Disposable Income is the amount leftover for spending and saving, after taxes.

 

Discretionary income is the amount leftover for spending, investments or saving after paying taxes and paying for personal necessities, such as food, shelter and clothing. Discretionary income includes money spent on the non-essential things such as luxury items, services and vacations.

swap discretionary with disposable and his post still makes the same point.

 

 

No, simply swapping terms does not make the same point. The post stated that golf is for those with extra time and extra money. The post also stated that people are making less money and working more. He also took a cheap shot at the millennials.

 

These are gross generalizations.

 

Here is my point: If people had a better understanding of personal money management (understanding the correct terminology is a good place to start), they would be able to budget for things like golf.

 

Items purchased with discretionary funds such as golf, entertainment, dining out and vacations can be worked into any budget when the person has a good foundational understanding of personal finance.

 

Also, if a person is working longer hours and making less – leave and do something else.

Don't blame it on the MAN.

 

 

I have several millennials working for me – all good people.

• 80% play golf
  
• 100% do not play Pokemon
  

 

 

a lot of this is spoken like people don't have any idea what they are doing.

 

im sure most people would like to quit their job and find a higher paying one, but its not quite as simple as "hmm im going to quit and go make more money, bye everyone"

i also struggle to believe most people dont have money for golf because they are just fools with their money. people have other stuff to do. they might want to play golf, but they might want to have HBO more than they want to buy just the balls required for 4 rounds. or they might think daycare is more important than a new m1.

 

like i mentioned above, i can play 10 weeks of soccer for less than i pay for 1 round of golf.

[llewol007]

Its just going back to what is usually is, a game for those who have extra time and extra money. This day in age, people are making less money=less disposable income=working more=no time for golf. Add to that the attention span of millennials who would much rather play Pokeman Go than be on a golf course.

 

 

I think you meant to say discretionary income. That's the bucket from which we dip for golf.

 

 

Disposable Income is the amount leftover for spending and saving, after taxes.

 

Discretionary income is the amount leftover for spending, investments or saving after paying taxes and paying for personal necessities, such as food, shelter and clothing. Discretionary income includes money spent on the non-essential things such as luxury items, services and vacations.

swap discretionary with disposable and his post still makes the same point.

 

 

No, simply swapping terms does not make the same point. The post stated that golf is for those with extra time and extra money. The post also stated that people are making less money and working more. He also took a cheap shot at the millennials.

 

These are gross generalizations.

 

Here is my point: If people had a better understanding of personal money management (understanding the correct terminology is a good place to start), they would be able to budget for things like golf.

 

Items purchased with discretionary funds such as golf, entertainment, dining out and vacations can be worked into any budget when the person has a good foundational understanding of personal finance.

 

Also, if a person is working longer hours and making less – leave and do something else.

Don't blame it on the MAN.

 

 

I have several millennials working for me – all good people.

• 80% play golf
  
• 100% do not play Pokemon
  

These are generalizations for sure and not everybody fits the mold. That in fact is affecting a lot of the younger demographic out there in that there is no financial education but I never received it myself. Only reason I got into golf was that it was first job my senior year in high school. Parents lived paycheck to paycheck and we were told to put our money in the safest place the bank. People are making less money than they were 10 years ago and wages not keeping up with cost of living. So what suffers? Golf is becoming a casualty of the economy right now. Many graduates out there probably have 40K+ of student loans with the expectation of 6 figure jobs but have to settle for 50K/year entry level positions. Might sound like enough money but when rent is 2400 a month for a 2 bedroom/1bath, that is just for a roof over your head. Suddenly that discretionary income becomes less and less. Does that mean that golf is now not an option. Not necessarily but it does become lower in the list of needs and becomes more of a want. I live in one of the most expensive areas in the country, my wife and I both make six figure income and we consider ourselves barely middle class. The thing that is hurting golf, is that there is no golf phenom (Tiger Woods) to ignite a surge in young new players to want to take up the game. I tell you this, Tiger Woods made me want to play the game even though I was making $4.75/hour back then. Used my paychecks and golf discounts from my job to buy all my gear(perks of working at a golf shop). Back when I took up the game in the late 90's it was still expensive. Heck they wanted $399 dollars for the new Great Big Bertha's and the new TaylorMade Bubble shafted Drivers. But, I wanted to play the game. That is what is hurting golf the most is there is not a connection with the players now. Even the young up and comers i.e Jason Day, Jordan Speith, McElroy, and Rickie and many others all wanted to be the next Tiger Woods and there is not a 1 that jumps out at you. Golf has been at such a high that it is not declining, it is essentially going back to its baseline. We just have to wait for the next golf Phenom to ignite a frenzy of new golfers and that will help bring up the game again. Heck my son is 8 and I am gearing him up to be that next Phenom....

[Cool Hand Luke]

obviously its convoluted and there are many factors, all of which are constantly moving targets, but i think the crux of the decline is the erosion of the middle class in the US. when the millennials reach 50+ there aren't going to be retirement safety nets like the baby boomers had/have now. they're going to have to work longer, they're going to be sicker, they're going to have to pay more for the essentials of daily living.

 

my prediction, unless things change drastically within our economy and government, is that 30 years from now green grass golf will be largely an upper class sport. the rest will be at Top Golf or played on simulators.

[Ferguson]

I agree that Tiger was a catalyst for golf's surge, but let's not forget what was happening during this time (and prior to the housing boom crash of 2008). Life was great, money was flowing. At the time people were using their HELOCs as an ATM. When it fell apart so did their ability to afford the game. The game slumped.

 

 

With that being said, it speaks to my point that financial education and the personal responsibility to learn basic personal money management is something this country lacks. In other words, if you want something - learn to afford it.

 

 

I was brought up in a home that encouraged team sports, faith, hard work, education and financial know-how. It has stuck with me my whole life. I got an education that helped me build a career to support not only my family but the lifestyle I wanted for them. A lifestyle that includes golf.

[Roody]

Golf is not dying, it's adjusting back down to normal post-Tiger levels. Also, did we forget this country had a near-recession within the past 10 years? The first thing people will cut back on when money gets tight is entertainment. So naturally golf fell on the chopping block for some.

 

It's going to take time to recover 100%. In the meantime, some of the private clubs I never dreamed I could afford 10-12 years ago are now within reach. And there are other countless people out there like me who are taking advantage. It's the market correcting. The landscape will be different, but it will survive.

[Soloman1]

No one is saying golf will disappear.

 

There are about the same number of golfers in the US today as in 1980, but the population has increased by 100 million people. Golf isn't keeping pace with population growth.

 

There are actually less "golfers," since the definition of a golfer has changed by the marketing weenies to someone who plays just once a year.

 

200 golf course closed in 2016. Only 15 opened. That's the worst year yet. That's about 1,000 courses closed in the past decade.

 

If you think golf will rebound, you're nuts.

 

Golf Is declining faster than ever.

 

The statistic that rounds are up is because retiring baby boomers are playing more golf. It's not more people playing golf.

 

Edit: I'm tired of typing the same posts over and over. I'll leave this discussion and let y'all carry on thinking golf will "rebound."

[HatsForBats]

No one is saying golf will disappear.

 

There are about the same number of golfers in the US today as in 1980, but the population has increased by 100 million people. Golf isn't keeping pace with population growth.

 

There are actually less "golfers," since the definition of a golfer has changed by the marketing weenies to someone who plays just once a year.

 

200 golf course closed in 2016. Only 15 opened. That's the worst year yet. That's about 1,000 courses closed in the past decade.

 

If you think golf will rebound, you're nuts.

 

Golf Is declining faster than ever.

 

The statistic that rounds are up is because retiring baby boomers are playing more golf. It's not more people playing golf.

 

Edit: I'm tired of typing the same posts over and over. I'll leave this discussion and let y'all carry on thinking golf will "rebound."

 

I saw a report from 2012 which showed from 1990 to the then present the number of courses had increased by 24% while the number of golfers had only increased 17%. They estimated a 5 to 10% decrease in the number of courses over the next 10 years (2012 through 2021). That would be about 75 to 150 per year. I see no reason to panic yet. http://golf-info-guide.com/golf-tips/golf-in-the-usa/by-the-numbers-usa-golfers-and-golf-courses/

 

A big factor I am seeing in my area is housing. At least 3 courses in my immediate area have been made offers and the numbers I am hearing they were offered are astronomical. 2 of the 3 courses I know are profitable but for the amount of money they are purportedly being offered it is a no brainer to sell. As the saying goes 'one thing they ain't making more of is land'. Housing will be a big threat when the new housing market is on the rise.

 

Here is another report that doesn't paint doom and gloom. One thing I found interesting is a near 14% increase in the number of first time golfers from 2015 to 2016. https://www.golfdigest.com/story/the-ngf-annual-golf-participation-report-uncovers-favorable-trends-for-the-games-future

 

As another poster pointed out it's just Ebb and Flow. Given the bubbles we recently went through with housing/Tiger/economy a seemingly large correction is inevitable. Grab your towel, your Hitchhikers Guide and follow the advice on the front cover.

[uitar9]

In my local, there appear to be a number of courses that that were built outside of the city limits, within the past 10-15 years. All with a residential housing component. None have been able to build a club house, still operating from a trailer. Housing sales have been dismal. You can shoot a gun off at these places and not hit a golfer. They were built to sell residential housing. The courses supposed to be a draw.

 

I visited Palm Springs 18 months ago. Two courses I played had contractor curtain across a number of residential subdivision areas. Services were in. Locals telling me they hadn't sold a house since 2008.

 

Reducing numbers of golfers has nothing to do with those situations. I would question the business case.

[TollBros]

Well I spend 2 early evenings a week giving free golf lessons to kids who can't afford it, and let me tell you that with the right encouragement, these kids love the game and become hooked. They work hard, they listen, they practice and I'm very proud of how they conduct themselves. If you are concerned about the future of our game, dedicate some time and energy into introducing young people to the game the right way. Kids love to be challenged and when they understand the game, it's traditions, and the reward of the improvement gained from working hard at something, I think you've taught them more than just golf. Don't let them be the backwards hats, basketball shorts, rap music playing kids on the course that were never taught the right way and most likely won't ever stick with it.

[uitar9]

This damn topic is stuck in my head. Must be the OCD, lol

 

There's 4 pages of posts on the why. and that assumes there is a problem (I didn't say golf is or isn't in decline)

 

Considering this thread is populated by regular golfers, what are we doing to help the game.

 

Me and the wife have played about 100 rounds together annually over the past 5 years. Bought new clubs, rented carts, bought clothes, traveled for golf vacations, helping local golfing communities along the way. The past two years we have brought newbies to a course twice. We spend the winters at the local indoor dome every weekend.

 

It seems most of the regular places we frequent are packed all the time.

 

There's probably hundreds of other things I could do to "Help" the game. Join a PGA organization, help put on events, whatever.

 

Nope. Not happening.I have no interest. I'm to busy golfing and practicing golf.

 

Golf looks great to me

[Singapore Joe]

A number of things have been brought up but I would like to bring in an observation by a non-American.

 

One thing is that my age group (fourty-something, something being closer to nine than zero) don't seem to have a clue of how the young people think. I don't claim to understand it, either, but I'm sure someone will figure a way to make golf appealing to the younger generations. If I knew how to do it I would be doing it. Instead, I am here discussing the problem (if it really is a problem) instead of a solution.

 

There is huge uncertainty. In the USA in particular but also globally the salaries have been falling for a long time and there does not seem to be an end to it. Instead, automation and artificial intelligence will also start to make traditionally safe, high yieliding professions (accountants, lawyers, etc.) redundant. With uncertainty, it is hard to make a long term commitment into things like golf that require substantial effort if one wants to become good. USA in particular is also crazy competitive. If you run your own business, if you want to have a career, the effort you have to put in just does not leave time for many other things.

 

All over the world people are flocking to the cities and doing away with things like cars. What was once a status symbol - an expensive car, a house by a golf course, etc. - will not be so in the future. The sharing economy will get stronger, as will environmental awareness, and if one only needs a car to drive to the golf course once or max. twice a week, that doesn't sound very appealing. But with things like Uber playing golf is going to be inconvenient. One sees people cycling with golf bags in The Netherlands but not sure how practical that is in the countries where the courses are far away.

 

Golf is not the only thing going through a change. One of my favorite things of the past, audiophilia, has been dying for a long time. Music is no longer something you listen to in a sweet spot on a couch but something you take everywhere and share. Lot of new records are sonically awful but convenience is more important than perfect sound. I'm sure there is a golf equivalent somewhere out there for that.

[Ferguson]

I've been reading recently about the impact of millennial habits, cost of living/economic issues, and time constraints or time preferences on industries. Data seems to show that golf is, or will be, one of the most severely impacted industries by these changes. Some data I have read suggests that 83% of regular golfers are over 40, without about 37% of all golfers being over 60. Clearly, even with the increases in life expectancy, golf can't be sustained as the older generations die off. As they pass, that's about 10 million regular, loyal golfers that need to be replaced...so my question is...at what point are we unable to reverse the trend? And what can we do to to attract more loyal golfers from those who are under 39?

 

 

Just in a TIGER SLUMP.....................

 

 

 

Melo, people will come, Melo. They'll come to golf courses for reasons they can't even fathom. They'll turn up in pro shops, not knowing for sure why they're doing it. They'll arrive at the driving range as innocent as children, longing for the past. "Of course, we won't mind if you have a look around," you'll say. "It's only 8 dollars for a bucket and to play it’s 75 dollars per person, plus cart." They'll pass over the money without even thinking about it; for it is money they have and peace they lack.

 

 

And they'll walk out to the first tee, and plant a peg in the ground on a perfect afternoon. They'll find they have a tee time reserved with friends, when they were younger and tried to swing like Tiger. And they'll play the game, and it'll be as if they'd dipped themselves in magic waters. The memories will be so thick, they'll have to brush them away from their faces.

 

 

People will come, Melo.

 

The one constant through all the years, Melo, has been GOLF. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It's been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt, and erased again. But GOLF has marked the time. This course, this game, is a part of our past, Melo. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again. Ohhhhhhhh, people will come, Melo. People will most definitely come.

[Golfnuck]

obviously its convoluted and there are many factors, all of which are constantly moving targets, but i think the crux of the decline is the erosion of the middle class in the US. when the millennials reach 50+ there aren't going to be retirement safety nets like the baby boomers had/have now. they're going to have to work longer, they're going to be sicker, they're going to have to pay more for the essentials of daily living.

 

my prediction, unless things change drastically within our economy and government, is that 30 years from now green grass golf will be largely an upper class sport. the rest will be at Top Golf or played on simulators.

 

By most definitions the millennial generation is born between 1982 and 2002.

 

The millennial generation is the generation of children born between 1982 and 2002, some 81 million children who have taken over K-12, have already entered college and the workforce. This generation will replace the Baby-boomers as they retire.

 

It may be true that the millennial generation may not have available to them the social safety net that existed for the boomers.

 

When the average millennials turn 50 in about 20 years from now most of the boomers would have either passed away or would soon pass away.

 

A lot of their wealth will pass onto the millennials.

 

Also a majority of the boomers will be retiring and that will open up job opportunities as the post boomer generations step in to fill those senior spots the millennials will fill in the spots vacated by the Gen x'rs.

[Cool Hand Luke]

obviously its convoluted and there are many factors, all of which are constantly moving targets, but i think the crux of the decline is the erosion of the middle class in the US. when the millennials reach 50+ there aren't going to be retirement safety nets like the baby boomers had/have now. they're going to have to work longer, they're going to be sicker, they're going to have to pay more for the essentials of daily living.

 

my prediction, unless things change drastically within our economy and government, is that 30 years from now green grass golf will be largely an upper class sport. the rest will be at Top Golf or played on simulators.

 

By most definitions the millennial generation is born between 1982 and 2002.

 

The millennial generation is the generation of children born between 1982 and 2002, some 81 million children who have taken over K-12, have already entered college and the workforce. This generation will replace the Baby-boomers as they retire.

 

It may be true that the millennial generation may not have available to them the social safety net that existed for the boomers.

 

When the average millennials turn 50 in about 20 years from now most of the boomers would have either passed away or would soon pass away.

 

A lot of their wealth will pass onto the millennials.

 

Also a majority of the boomers will be retiring and that will open up job opportunities as the post boomer generations step in to fill those senior spots the millennials will fill in the spots vacated by the Gen x'rs.

 

Fair points... however, I'm still on the skeptical side. The other thing working against golf is the gradual decline of resources, mainly land and water. These will become more expensive and golfers will be the one's paying more.

[Z1ggy16]

I think places like Top Golf could potentially be the replacement the standard Muni course as we know it. Country clubs and ritzy paid memberships will still exist, but a place like Top Golf will attract the younger people and families for many reasons:

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

 

TG could easily get software to make it such that instead of playing little mini games, that you actually play "real" courses. Of course the conditions can't be replicated like different lies, sand.. etc, but that's not really the point. If a person could go play 18 holes on Pebble for $15 and it took 1 hour, that would probably be an easy choice over heading down to his dying muni, paying $50 and spending 4.5 hours playing.

 

I'm sure it'll be different depending where you go, but I can see a shift away from expensive "real" golf, to less expensive simulator style play.

 

I think we could potentially see this divide where you have the lower and middle class going to simulators and then a small % of diehards who still go to the real course to play. My guess is it happens within the next 20 years.

[Ferguson]

I think places like Top Golf could potentially be the replacement the standard Muni course as we know it. Country clubs and ritzy paid memberships will still exist, but a place like Top Golf will attract the younger people and families for many reasons:

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

 

TG could easily get software to make it such that instead of playing little mini games, that you actually play "real" courses. Of course the conditions can't be replicated like different lies, sand.. etc, but that's not really the point. If a person could go play 18 holes on Pebble for $15 and it took 1 hour, that would probably be an easy choice over heading down to his dying muni, paying $50 and spending 4.5 hours playing.

 

I'm sure it'll be different depending where you go, but I can see a shift away from expensive "real" golf, to less expensive simulator style play.

 

I think we could potentially see this divide where you have the lower and middle class going to simulators and then a small % of diehards who still go to the real course to play. My guess is it happens within the next 20 years.

 

 

In other words, they will never understand the experience and what we have come to relish about the game.

 

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

[ebrasmus21]

I think places like Top Golf could potentially be the replacement the standard Muni course as we know it. Country clubs and ritzy paid memberships will still exist, but a place like Top Golf will attract the younger people and families for many reasons:

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

 

TG could easily get software to make it such that instead of playing little mini games, that you actually play "real" courses. Of course the conditions can't be replicated like different lies, sand.. etc, but that's not really the point. If a person could go play 18 holes on Pebble for $15 and it took 1 hour, that would probably be an easy choice over heading down to his dying muni, paying $50 and spending 4.5 hours playing.

 

I'm sure it'll be different depending where you go, but I can see a shift away from expensive "real" golf, to less expensive simulator style play.

 

I think we could potentially see this divide where you have the lower and middle class going to simulators and then a small % of diehards who still go to the real course to play. My guess is it happens within the next 20 years.

 

 

In other words, they will never understand the experience and what we have come to relish about the game.

 

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

 

I view Top Golf as a golfing version of bowling. I wouldn't join a bowling league because it's just not my thing but I would join a Top-Golf-League. It would be fun to have a big league with a bunch of teams. I see that as being a great option for people to enjoy certain aspects of golf without being a classical golfer.

[Z1ggy16]

I think places like Top Golf could potentially be the replacement the standard Muni course as we know it. Country clubs and ritzy paid memberships will still exist, but a place like Top Golf will attract the younger people and families for many reasons:

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

 

TG could easily get software to make it such that instead of playing little mini games, that you actually play "real" courses. Of course the conditions can't be replicated like different lies, sand.. etc, but that's not really the point. If a person could go play 18 holes on Pebble for $15 and it took 1 hour, that would probably be an easy choice over heading down to his dying muni, paying $50 and spending 4.5 hours playing.

 

I'm sure it'll be different depending where you go, but I can see a shift away from expensive "real" golf, to less expensive simulator style play.

 

I think we could potentially see this divide where you have the lower and middle class going to simulators and then a small % of diehards who still go to the real course to play. My guess is it happens within the next 20 years.

 

 

In other words, they will never understand the experience and what we have come to relish about the game.

 

 

1) no real commitment - stay for just an hour and mess around, or play for a long time

2) less "exercise" - no walking 3 miles around a course, up and down hills, maybe getting rained on

3) social gathering - chance to meet other people in a large group environment

4) no "pace of play" rangers hounding you - special snow flakes don't like to get yelled at or think they are inferior

Sure, and vinyl records are/were an older music purists ideal form of media, but I don't miss them because I never had them. It's the same thing.

 

I actually think golf clubs are fairly affordable - nobody is forcing you to buy that $500 Epic driver. Why not go buy a used Fly Z for $50? Go buy that used Ping G20 set for $200... etc. However, there is no real way to mitigate the cost of playing golf on a golf course, other than Hot Deals (which may be hurting golf in the long run) or Twilight play, which may not always be ideal for schedule.

 

I would absolutely love to have my kids grow up to be golfers, love and play golf the way I do right now. However, I wouldn't be surprised with the way the economy is going and the rising costs to own a golf course, that a lot of budget-centric families will be forced to go to a Top Golf like place to enjoy the sport.

 

And yes it is a bit like a bowling alley.

[Pepperturbo]

Its just going back to what is usually is, a game for those who have extra time and extra money. This day in age, people are making less money=less disposable income=working more=no time for golf. Add to that the attention span of millennials who would much rather play Pokeman Go than be on a golf course.

 

Your first statement is correct, second NOT correct. Most employees pay NO attention to what's behind payroll costs, which I am responsible for. Also, being the man that signs the payroll checks of all levels of employee, I can assure YOU, people are making more today that twenty years ago, for the same level of skill or lack thereof. Admin Assistants (Secretary's) use to make 20-30k, today some are 50-60k, not including payroll costs.

 

Less disposable has merit in exempt / non-exempt segment because more people are ducting money for their 401k, and have higher amounts deducted from each pay check to offset paying taxes at the end the year. What you didn't mention that plays a huge roll in disposable income, many people chose to live above their pay, thinking they're entitled (really common in CA and tech sectors). Use to pay all healthcare costs, but I stopped that ten years ago. Today everyone contributes to high cost of personal as well as family healthcare, and still they make more than ever before.

 

Love your last comment. Many of our clients quit campus recruiting because of that.

[marmooskapaul]

I can't imagine Top Golf is that cheap?? I don't know though??

[ebrasmus21]

I can't imagine Top Golf is that cheap?? I don't know though??

 

It's very expensive. If/when you go I'd recommend having 5 or 6 people in your party to make it more affordable. The food and beer is good too!

[melo]

Its just going back to what is usually is, a game for those who have extra time and extra money. This day in age, people are making less money=less disposable income=working more=no time for golf. Add to that the attention span of millennials who would much rather play Pokeman Go than be on a golf course.

 

Your first statement is correct, second NOT correct. Most employees pay NO attention to what's behind payroll costs, which I am responsible for. Also, being the man that signs the payroll checks of all levels of employee, I can assure YOU, people are making more today that twenty years ago, for the same level of skill or lack thereof. Admin Assistants (Secretary's) use to make 20-30k, today some are 50-60k, not including payroll costs.

 

Less disposable has merit in exempt / non-exempt segment because more people are ducting money for their 401k, and have higher amounts deducted from each pay check to offset paying taxes at the end the year. What you didn't mention that plays a huge roll in disposable income, many people chose to live above their pay, thinking they're entitled (really common in CA and tech sectors). Use to pay all healthcare costs, but I stopped that ten years ago. Today everyone contributes to high cost of personal as well as family healthcare, and still they make more than ever before.

 

Love your last comment. Many of our clients quit campus recruiting because of that.

 

You do realize that with inflation, 30k 20 years ago = 50k in 2017, which means people are being paid more, but once you adjust for current cost of living and inflation, they actually have less.

 

If you think an admin should still be making 20k per year, which mind you is about $10.25 an hour, I think you and your fellow executives would be answering a lot of your own phone calls.

 

As far as working more, that is also true. Americans work more hours. Something like 15 million Americans work more than 59 hours per week. And even those who don't "work" more are now part of two income families which means more time after work splitting chores and household duties. We have less free time. We have less disposable income. We have families where both spouses work. We have more activities to take our children to. When this generation gets to 50 or 60, it will be nothing like it was for the baby boomers.

 

You also make a huge, and erroneous assumption about 401k. Only about 30% of Americans invest in a 401k. More importantly the average is about 8% of pre-tax money invested, which means the average American is barely noticing a 401k deduction. What they are noticing is employers like yourself who think all of your employees make too much money, so you don't cover their healthcare anymore, which adds hundreds or thousands to their monthly expenses, and tens of thousands if they have a medical emergency because of the deductibles and out of pockets.

 

Anyway, that is off-topic. Other factors I've considered. Does daylight savings help or hurt golf? What role will global warming play? If hundreds or thousands more courses contract, will that raise or lower prices elsewhere?

[uitar9]

The smart phone may be another factor. The smart phone gives the user instant information. Users have gotten used to that. Users of any age.

 

Golf may not take too long. It just doesn't give instant gratification. You have to wait until the end to get your final score. Bummer.

[mbs_59]

Thank you all for your opinions and insights. I see a couple of trends in the posts...

 

Some people don't think golf is really declining, or at least nothing other than a typical ebb and flow.

 

Others of you think the cost of playing/equipment/etc is affecting play

 

Some of you think courses will close.

 

Do any of you think the following things are disrupting the market?

 

The length of time it takes to play (not whether it takes 4 hours or 4:30, I simply mean the fact that it takes anywhere over 2 hours to play)

 

The difficulty of learning and playing well

 

The cost of lessons/instruction and lack of access to quality practice facilities?

 

Personally I think that those things have always been a part of golf. The reason they have become an "issue" is the new generation and world we live in wants everything to be easy and fast. Golf is the opposite and honestly I get tired of people wanting to make golf new, hip and cool for that crowd. Let us who enjoy the game the way it has always been play it that way. I understand that might mean a decline and courses will close but I just don't ever see many of these new ideas genuinely bring more people to play the game. More often than not they just make me roll my eyes.

 

Interesting thread though. Definitely agree there can be some stuff done to spice the game up. Just don't want to see golf fall into the trap of giving the kids everything they want. But that may be a debate for a political message board :stop:

[melo]

Thank you all for your opinions and insights. I see a couple of trends in the posts...

 

Some people don't think golf is really declining, or at least nothing other than a typical ebb and flow.

 

Others of you think the cost of playing/equipment/etc is affecting play

 

Some of you think courses will close.

 

Do any of you think the following things are disrupting the market?

 

The length of time it takes to play (not whether it takes 4 hours or 4:30, I simply mean the fact that it takes anywhere over 2 hours to play)

 

The difficulty of learning and playing well

 

The cost of lessons/instruction and lack of access to quality practice facilities?

 

Personally I think that those things have always been a part of golf. The reason they have become an "issue" is the new generation and world we live in wants everything to be easy and fast. Golf is the opposite and honestly I get tired of people wanting to make golf new, hip and cool for that crowd. Let us who enjoy the game the way it has always been play it that way. I understand that might mean a decline and courses will close but I just don't ever see many of these new ideas genuinely bring more people to play the game. More often than not they just make me roll my eyes.

 

Interesting thread though. Definitely agree there can be some stuff done to spice the game up. Just don't want to see golf fall into the trap of giving the kids everything they want. But that may be a debate for a political message board :stop:

 

I definitely wouldn't want to change anything about the core values of golf. I'll admit I have been intrigued by the idea of three 6 hole sets instead of 2 9's. I also think that we need a better way to incorporate technology into golf. The key question is, if golf is contracting, is that bad? Or is it actually good? What does it mean for the future of the sport?

[thug the bunny]

Don't worry

About a thing

Cause

Every little thing

Is gonna be alright

 

Sayin don't worry

About a thing...

 

This is like saying 'Is tennis going to disappear?'. No. Is skiing going to go away?. No. Is cycling going to disappear? No. Is kayaking going to disappear? No. Is bowling going to disappear? No. Is fly fishing going to disappear? No. Is running going to disappear? No. Is ice skating going to go away? No. Is hiking going to just stop? No. Is archery going to disappear? No. Is track and field going to disappear? No. Is rock climbing going to disappear? No. Is surfing going to just fade away? No.

 

Cmon man. These are all expensive difficult activities that require a lot of dedication, money, and time. Lets just end this stupidness right there. I'm really getting tired of this death of golf stuff. It's silly. At best.

[CrushSticks]

So many things I want to say here, so I'll just throw out a few:

 

1. Real golfers will always exist. To the poster who said he was sick of people trying to change the game to suit the new generation, I love that. If Tom Morris was here he'd say WTF. I'm not a purist per se, but the game in its original form is beautiful.

 

2. As someone pretty deep in golf retail, I can tell you that industry is not healthy, but it's the retailers and vendors faults. Too many brands, too many products, and not near enough consumers to justify it. If more brands would do what Nike did, things would get less convoluted. We don't need 9 different golf balls from every manufacturer. And so many retailers are trying to hang on instead of just going away, that we canibalize each other's sales. I mean, I can't stop a guy from selling 50 sets of JPX 850s on eBay saying they are "used" and using an alias so that he can get out of them.

 

3. I love to play the game. I've never played a ridiculous amount of rounds. In 2015 I played about 55 times(Chicago area). In 2016 my first child was born in July, I played about 25 rounds that season. In 2017 I have played 10 times. I would love to play 55 rounds again, but I don't see that happening for a long time. I'm sure there are many golfers like myself who have the desire, and the money, but just can't swing it.

 

To answer OP, I think it already is irreversible, but once these stagnating numbers become the norm, we won't have to have this conversation anymore. There won't be another Tiger and there won't be another Rocketballz Fairway wood.