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Let's talk 3 jacks!... who's fault is it?


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3 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

 

 

By the way, nothing against you or your replies - just thought the system would decompose every shot

Once you are on the putting green there isn't much more to decompose, like I said you can at best 1 putt, so there isn't anything else to gain by calculating each putt.

 

From your math.

 

3putts from 33ft = -0.84 and 2putts from 6ft = -0.55 implies 33ft -> 6ft = -0.29... 6ft miss = -0.55... thus the 2nd one was 'more costly' on that 33ft 3jacks)

 

Let's say you putt from 33ft to 6ft and call it -.29 lost per your calculations. If you 1 putt from there, you gain back .45, which leaves you a composite +.16 

 

Let's say you putt from 33ft to 1ft. Using the same math you used based on 3 putts, 3putts from 33ft is -.84, 2 putts from 1 ft is -.91, that leaves you +0.07. Lets say you 1 putt instead, well you gained 0.09, which leaves you the same composite +.16

 

So second putt length doesn't matter using your math above since you are using baseline values based off 2-putting 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Rory 2putts from 36ft while running the first putt 11ft by... while Scheffler 2putts from 36ft leaving himself a 1inch tap in... it's obvisouly even SG:ptt... but I'd argue that Scheffler's first putt was better than Rory, and that Rory had to gain it back on the second one... like they decompose every other shot they hit from every distance and lie on the golf course...

 

By the way, nothing against you or your replies - just thought the system would decompose every shot

That's not how it works. Rory's 1st putt would get a low SG value, and his second would get a high SG value. Together, his putts would produce a lower SG value than someone who putts the first putt to 2.5', then makes the second. Scheff's first putt would get a high SG value, but his second would get a low SG value (because everyone makes a 1" putt). But because of his excellent first putt, his overall SG for putting on the hole would be higher than Rory's, even thought they both 2-putted.

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14 hours ago, Krt22 said:

Once you are on the putting green there isn't much more to decompose, like I said you can at best 1 putt, so there isn't anything else to gain by calculating each putt.

 

From your math.

 

3putts from 33ft = -0.84 and 2putts from 6ft = -0.55 implies 33ft -> 6ft = -0.29... 6ft miss = -0.55... thus the 2nd one was 'more costly' on that 33ft 3jacks)

 

Let's say you putt from 33ft to 6ft and call it -.29 lost per your calculations. If you 1 putt from there, you gain back .45, which leaves you a composite +.16 

 

Let's say you putt from 33ft to 1ft. Using the same math you used based on 3 putts, 3putts from 33ft is -.84, 2 putts from 1 ft is -.91, that leaves you +0.07. Lets say you 1 putt instead, well you gained 0.09, which leaves you the same composite +.16

 

So second putt length doesn't matter using your math above since you are using baseline values based off 2-putting 

 

 

I'll try and illustrate the examples:

 

2putts:

33 -> 6 = -0.29 ... 6 -> in = +0.45... 33ft / 2 putts... = +0.16

33 -> 1 = +0.07 ... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 2 putts... = +0.16

which translates to, first scenario 1st putt bad, 2nd putt great ... 2nd scenario first putt good, second putt ok/good for tap in

 

3putts

33 -> 6 = -0.29 ... 6 -> 1 = -0.64... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 3 putts... = -0.84

33 -> 1 = +0.07 ... 1 -> 1 = -1,00... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 3 putts... = -0.84

 

the math adds up, it's a simple addition model... I just find it interesting because it just helps to distinguish if your 2 putts from 33 feet happen usually because you are 'great lagger' or a 'great saver'

 

the PGA tracks 'approach putt performance' which seems to measure the distance left on average after the first putt... I might look into this instead (2'3" average and Cantlay leading at 1'11" - these guys are good!)

Edited by MtlJayMan
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5 minutes ago, DLiver said:

That's not how it works. Rory's 1st putt would get a low SG value, and his second would get a high SG value. Together, his putts would produce a lower SG value than someone who putts the first putt to 2.5', then makes the second. Scheff's first putt would get a high SG value, but his second would get a low SG value (because everyone makes a 1" putt). But because of his excellent first putt, his overall SG for putting on the hole would be higher than Rory's, even thought they both 2-putted.

 

So, you're telling me that if Rory and Scottie balls were on the same mark... and that they both end up 2-putting from that distance... on that hole alone, and as a whole one would gain strokes putting on the other?!... Jesus

 

In my example (using PGA stats):

Rory : 33 -> 12 = -0.67 ... 12 -> in = +0.68 ... total : +0,01

Scottie : 33 -> 1 = +0.01 ... 1 -> in = +0.00 ... total : +0.01

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2 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

I'll try and illustrate the examples:

 

2putts:

33 -> 6 = -0.29 ... 6 -> in = +0.45... 33ft / 2 putts... = +0.16

33 -> 1 = +0.07 ... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 2 putts... = +0.16

which translates to, first scenario 1st putt bad, 2nd putt great ... 2nd scenario first putt good, second putt ok/good for tap in

 

3putts

33 -> 6 = -0.29 ... 6 -> 1 = -0.64... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 3 putts... = -0.84

33 -> 1 = +0.07 ... 1 -> 1 = -1,00... 1 -> in = +0.09... 33ft / 2 putts... = -0.84

 

the math adds up, it's a simple addition model... I just find it interesting because it just helps to distinguish if your 2 putts from 33 feet happen usually because you are 'great lagger' or a 'great saver'

 

the PGA tracks 'approach putt performance' which seems to measure the distance left on average after the first putt... I might look into this instead (2'3" average and Cantlay leading at 1'11" - these guys are good!)

You can do it to see the contribution for that singular putt, but if you have enough data on your own putting over time that should be sufficient. You can simply look at your performance over time to see if short putts or longer putts are your strength/weakness. The whole point of using statistical methods is using sufficiently large data sets such that the outliers aren't significant Breaking every 2 putt into two segments using the same baseline data from a given distance doesn't give you any additional data/insight, it's basically adding the same constant to two sides of an equation.

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20 minutes ago, DLiver said:

 But because of his excellent first putt, his overall SG for putting on the hole would be higher than Rory's, even thought they both 2-putted.

That is not true, it's mathematically impossible. Two putting from the same distance, regardless of first putt length, will always yield the same exact SG value using his method 

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1 minute ago, Krt22 said:

You can do it to see the contribution for that singular putt, but if you have enough data on your own putting over time that should be sufficient. You can simply look at your performance over time to see if short putts or longer putts are your strength/weakness. The whole point of using statistical methods is using sufficiently large data sets such that the outliers aren't significant Breaking every 2 putt into two segments using the same baseline data from a given distance doesn't give you any additional data/insight, it's basically adding the same constant to two sides of an equation.

Agree completely... and it is why I'm using the complete season data tracking of all putts to try and draw conclusions on my game... I just wanted to start the thread because I was surprised when using this 'home made single putt decomposition' (that might not be valid by the way) - that the 1st putt accounted for 40% of the SG loss and the second one for 60%... contrary to my initial gut belief that it was the lagging part that was the biggest contributor... just a heads up for my incoming winter practice, that frequency of putts from shortish-mid range make% was even more of a priority... that it would have a bigger ripple effect on 3putt avoidance that I initially thought

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43 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

In my example (using PGA stats):

Rory : 33 -> 12 = -0.67 ... 12 -> in = +0.68 ... total : +0,01

Scottie : 33 -> 1 = +0.01 ... 1 -> in = +0.00 ... total : +0.01

I don't think those numbers are correct. The SG number for Scotties first putt is nearly 0, which would indicate that the average "leave" for a 33' putt would be around 1-2".

 

All I know is that in my SG app (created by Brodie), not all 2-putts are created equally.

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Maybe it's the places I play, but I see a lot of people practicing putting and especially chipping from the same place, over and over again. I found a better way, for me at least, was to use two balls, hitting the first one as close as I can, then seeing if I can get the second one inside of first. From there, I move on to a very different putt or chip. Driving and putting are the best parts of my game. It's all that crap in the middle that kinda sucks.😏

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When I switched to new clubs the chip and pitch shots accounted for the most extra strokes.

Now that I've figured out my new clubs I need to go back to being more aggressive and picking where I want the ball to end up on the green, as opposed to going for the center of the green.

 

A common putting mistake is to not use every resource possible to study the green. 

Even pros will look away when they make a horrible putt! 

No, you have to  watch the putt and learn the speed and break of the green so you can make the long  putt going the other way.   

 

A putt from the fringe to within 5 feet is better than a pretty lob shot to within 5 feet if it gives  you a good read on the green.                                                           

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13 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

 

So, you're telling me that if Rory and Scottie balls were on the same mark... and that they both end up 2-putting from that distance... on that hole alone, and as a whole one would gain strokes putting on the other?!... Jesus

 

In my example (using PGA stats):

Rory : 33 -> 12 = -0.67 ... 12 -> in = +0.68 ... total : +0,01

Scottie : 33 -> 1 = +0.01 ... 1 -> in = +0.00 ... total : +0.01

Me knowing that you are a stats guy , and seeing that I’m not the only one who has issues making sense of this , gives me hope. I just want you to know. You gave  a man hope today. 😂

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2 hours ago, bladehunter said:

Me knowing that you are a stats guy , and seeing that I’m not the only one who has issues making sense of this , gives me hope. I just want you to know. You gave  a man hope today. 😂

Haha... at least we found something positive out of this thread !

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15 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

Agree completely... and it is why I'm using the complete season data tracking of all putts to try and draw conclusions on my game... I just wanted to start the thread because I was surprised when using this 'home made single putt decomposition' (that might not be valid by the way) - that the 1st putt accounted for 40% of the SG loss and the second one for 60%... contrary to my initial gut belief that it was the lagging part that was the biggest contributor... just a heads up for my incoming winter practice, that frequency of putts from shortish-mid range make% was even more of a priority... that it would have a bigger ripple effect on 3putt avoidance that I initially thought

I can see how that breaks down, but it's a bit strange to look at it that way. I think the lagging it poorly was still the key contributor because that 6ft putt would not have existed in the first place if the first putt was hit better. 

 

This conclusion might lead someone to think the fix should be to focus on short putts outside of 2-3ft since that is where you "lost" more strokes, but I would say that conclusion is wrong. Getting better in that range will absolutely help, but in terms of 3-putt avoidance getting better at lagging would yield better long term SG improvement. Even if you were a terrific putter from 6ft, you will still miss at times. Where as getting better at lagging from 30ft has a much larger window of improvement and error. You don't need to hole it out, just get it closer to the hole more consistently. 

 

PGA tour avg from 6ft is ~70%. These are the best players in the world on perfect greens and they still miss 30% from that range

 

What percentage of putts do you think the avg tour pro gets inside 3ft from 33ft away? More or less than 70%?

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3 hours ago, ShortGolfer said:

When I switched to new clubs the chip and pitch shots accounted for the most extra strokes.

Now that I've figured out my new clubs I need to go back to being more aggressive and picking where I want the ball to end up on the green, as opposed to going for the center of the green.

 

A common putting mistake is to not use every resource possible to study the green. 

Even pros will look away when they make a horrible putt! 

No, you have to  watch the putt and learn the speed and break of the green so you can make the long  putt going the other way.   

 

A putt from the fringe to within 5 feet is better than a pretty lob shot to within 5 feet if it gives  you a good read on the green.                                                           

Interesting chart from Arccos - Tour data, make rate percentage with or without reads

MakeRate.JPG

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8 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

I can see how that breaks down, but it's a bit strange to look at it that way. I think the lagging it poorly was still the key contributor because that 6ft putt would not have existed in the first place if the first putt was hit better. 

 

This conclusion might lead someone to think the fix should be to focus on short putts outside of 2-3ft since that is where you "lost" more strokes, but I would say that conclusion is wrong. Getting better in that range will absolutely help, but in terms of 3-putt avoidance getting better at lagging would yield better long term SG improvement. Even if you were a terrific putter from 6ft, you will still miss at times. Where as getting better at lagging from 30ft has a much larger window of improvement and error. You don't need to hole it out, just get it closer to the hole more consistently. 

 

PGA tour avg from 6ft is ~70%. These are the best players in the world on perfect greens and they still miss 30% from that range

 

What percentage of putts do you think the avg tour pro gets inside 3ft from 33ft away? More or less than 70%?

Agree as a whole, was just surprised of the SG loss distribution and why I wanted to discuss it here... so I didn't draw any weird conclusion from this... obvisouly, the correct answer is to get better at both - you get a couple of putts per round that are in the 30-40ish zone, make sure you get them close enough to avoid the 3-jacks and get better at making those short-mid-ish putts also...

 

Tried to find info on Tour pros... that kinda answered it, approach putt performance (which basically measure the distance of the 2nd putt) was on average 2'3" for 2022 (but that accounts for all 1st putt distance) - and the 3putts distance average in 2022 was 42' (and I'm way off of this) ... so, as we know, these guys are extremely good at lagging them close, tap it in and move on... so the answer is definitely more than 70% of those 33footers that end up inside 3ft... which very well might be, as you mentioned, where most of the improvement can be found 

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21 hours ago, MtlJayMan said:

I'm a numbers guys - and wanted to see if I could get info on my 3 putts avoidance and surprinsgly enough when gathering the Strokes gained data on 3 jacks and looking at SG data for every putt individually - I find that 60% of the SG is lost on the 2nd putt and 40% on the first putt... meaning that, for example, when I 3putt from 33 feet, while leaving it 6 feet short on the first try - missing the 6 footer is the more costly shot...

(scratch data - 33ft 2.16 / 6ft 1.45 / 1ft 1.09)

 

Found that interesting as the general instruction for 3 putt avoidance is always on lag putting distance control; make sure that when you're at least 30ft away, get it inside a 3ft circle... that is obviously sound advice and will reduce immersely the number of three-jacks with those tap ins... but one could argue that the far better strategy to make sure you minimize three putt occurence is to boost up your 6 footers make rate... not sure it's earth shattering - but the default tip everywhere to 'work on 3putt avoidance' has always been on distance control rather than practising a lot from short range to make sure you close these one out... Am I way off base here?

Not WAY off base, but off base, yes.

 

Broadie puts the 6’ make rate for Tour pros at 66%, and for scratch golfers at 55%.  By contrast, the 3’ make rates are 98% and 93%. 
 

So hypothetically, if you’re scratch and you had 18 six footers for par, you’d 3 jack EIGHT times.  Conversely, if you had 18 three footers for par, you’d only 3 jack once.  
 

I’m rounding, and you may not be scratch; obviously, the numbers from 6’ get much worse as we do.  FOR ME, the magic circle starts at 4’ and in IF I got the first putt to the hole because the ball falls to leave a pretty straight putt back to the hole AND I just saw whatever break there is. I’m not nearly as good if I left the first putt short, even if I got it to 4’.

 

Practicing a lot from 10’ and in is a crucial part of being a good putter, but above all else being a good approach putter from 30’ or so and then being rock solid inside 4’ is the key to putting.  If you have to live and die from 6’, you’ll be dead a lot.

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6 minutes ago, bluedot said:

Not WAY off base, but off base, yes.

 

Broadie puts the 6’ make rate for Tour pros at 66%, and for scratch golfers at 55%.  By contrast, the 3’ make rates are 98% and 93%. 
 

So hypothetically, if you’re scratch and you had 18 six footers for par, you’d 3 jack EIGHT times.  Conversely, if you had 18 three footers for par, you’d only 3 jack once.  
 

I’m rounding, and you may not be scratch; obviously, the numbers from 6’ get much worse as we do.  FOR ME, the magic circle starts at 4’ and in IF I got the first putt to the hole because the ball falls to leave a pretty straight putt back to the hole AND I just saw whatever break there is. I’m not nearly as good if I left the first putt short, even if I got it to 4’.

 

Practicing a lot from 10’ and in is a crucial part of being a good putter, but above all else being a good approach putter from 30’ or so and then being rock solid inside 4’ is the key to putting.  If you have to live and die from 6’, you’ll be dead a lot.

Agree completely with what you wrote... was just looking at it from a limited practice time (and the hypothetical aspect of getting better at one or the other - since we know it's best to get better at both)... from the fact that you get about 2-2.5 putts per round from outside 30ft and a good 8-12 putts from 4-10ft range... if increasing these latter make rate % wasn't the best way to go, in the short run

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26 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Agree completely with what you wrote... was just looking at it from a limited practice time (and the hypothetical aspect of getting better at one or the other - since we know it's best to get better at both)... from the fact that you get about 2-2.5 putts per round from outside 30ft and a good 8-12 putts from 4-10ft range... if increasing these latter make rate % wasn't the best way to go, in the short run

The average amateur will have far more 30ft+ first putts than 2-2.5 per round.

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Others have touched on it but there is a reasonable ceiling for make rates on those putts inside 10’ (tour players) and you are very likely to be quite a bit worse. 70% or so is tour average from 6 feet, if you could make 50%+ you’d be doing well. So the question becomes where is that make rate now vs. how good your lag putting is.
 

As far as the breakdown between approach vs second putt I’d say strokes gained is better suited to illustrate an overall trend, you could potentially track your approach distance as a supplemental stat or just develop a general idea of how well you are lagging it. From what I see golfers that lose a lot on the greens have very poor speed control and I always recommend focusing on that first.

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6 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

The average amateur will have far more 30ft+ first putts than 2-2.5 per round.

Interesting and non-statistically signifiant for sure...

I'm at first putt distance average - GIR : 21'1" and nonGIR : 10'11"... overall : 15'2"...

and distribution curve, first putt distance : [30-39] : 2.2 / rnd... [40-49] : 0.5 / rnd... [50+] : 0.2 / rnd... overall : 2.9 / rnd

(not counting using the putter on the fringe / fairway obviously)

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17 minutes ago, TLUBulldogGolf said:

Others have touched on it but there is a reasonable ceiling for make rates on those putts inside 10’ (tour players) and you are very likely to be quite a bit worse. 70% or so is tour average from 6 feet, if you could make 50%+ you’d be doing well. 
 

As far as the breakdown between approach vs second putt I’d say strokes gained is better suited to illustrate an overall trend, you could potentially track your approach distance as a supplemental stat or just develop a general idea of how well you are lagging it. From what I see golfers that lose a lot on the greens have very poor speed control and I always recommend focusing on that first.

I'm at 49% make rate from 6'... not too shabby, but nothing to write your mom about... and it's the biggest SG loss putting* contribution to Tour guys and scratch players (just by the frequency of those shots) ... (*if we go by the 'home made putt decomposition mentioned here that might not be valid)

 

Edit to add - surely agree on the second paragraph... we see all the time guys that are 30ft away and run it by 10ft or mishit it to 7ft short; so speed control is a must... was just looking to see if others had the breakdown of 'damn, I 3jack once a round and it seems I lag all those long ones to makeable distance, might be that I can't convert those 4-5 footers like I should' moment

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31 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Interesting and non-statistically signifiant for sure...

I'm at first putt distance average - GIR : 21'1" and nonGIR : 10'11"... overall : 15'2"...

and distribution curve, first putt distance : [30-39] : 2.2 / rnd... [40-49] : 0.5 / rnd... [50+] : 0.2 / rnd... overall : 2.9 / rnd

(not counting using the putter on the fringe / fairway obviously)

I guess this is very course dependent. My home club is a modern championship style layout with huge greens, so I do a lot of  lag putting. If you are at a traditional older course with small greens, missed greens likely replace long putts. In your case working on short putts (and likely chipping) probably makes more sense 

Edited by Krt22
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2 hours ago, Krt22 said:

I can see how that breaks down, but it's a bit strange to look at it that way. I think the lagging it poorly was still the key contributor because that 6ft putt would not have existed in the first place if the first putt was hit better. 

 

This conclusion might lead someone to think the fix should be to focus on short putts outside of 2-3ft since that is where you "lost" more strokes, but I would say that conclusion is wrong. Getting better in that range will absolutely help, but in terms of 3-putt avoidance getting better at lagging would yield better long term SG improvement. Even if you were a terrific putter from 6ft, you will still miss at times. Where as getting better at lagging from 30ft has a much larger window of improvement and error. You don't need to hole it out, just get it closer to the hole more consistently. 

 

PGA tour avg from 6ft is ~70%. These are the best players in the world on perfect greens and they still miss 30% from that range

 

What percentage of putts do you think the avg tour pro gets inside 3ft from 33ft away? More or less than 70%?

It weird. The answer is probably both.  
 

i have reached a new plane with driver this summer.  Consequently, I get alot more less than full lob ( 58) wedges than before. So in the 60-45 yard range. Well. I’m not bad from those distances. But compared to my 75-100 yard numbers I am deficient.  By a wide Margin.  So ….. do I stop hitting driver down the middle , or work on the 45-55 yard ranges?    Personally I’m working on those yardages.   I know it’s not completely the same as putting. But you get it. 
 

i think with lag putts it’s same. Work on the lags. But you also want to work on the 6 footers.  I personally don’t see anyone consistently lagging inside 5 feet from 30.  I’d say 50% at best.  Maybe. 
 

****side note. I’ve thought about starting a thread asking people to post their strokes gained putting numbers  and their handicaps. I feel like context is hard to find With the stat.  Comparing to pros that practice every day doesn’t feel genuine or helpful.   I just wonder what others are seeing who feel like confident putters ?   Anybody think that’s useful ?  

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31 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

I'm at 49% make rate from 6'... not too shabby, but nothing to write your mom about... and it's the biggest SG loss putting* contribution to Tour guys and scratch players (just by the frequency of those shots) ... (*if we go by the 'home made putt decomposition mentioned here that might not be valid)

 

Edit to add - surely agree on the second paragraph... we see all the time guys that are 30ft away and run it by 10ft or mishit it to 7ft short; so speed control is a must... was just looking to see if others had the breakdown of 'damn, I 3jack once a round and it seems I lag all those long ones to makeable distance, might be that I can't convert those 4-5 footers like I should' moment

 

I don't know how much you can realistically improve that. I view speed as something I can basically always control and if I have a good feel for the speed of the greens I'm not going to be worried about 3 putting outside very tricky putts across slopes or if I get on the wrong side of the hole and the greens are very fast. Otherwise I'm expecting most to be basically tap ins or very simple clean ups, and if I miss the short one my thought is usually that it was a poor lag unless I make a terrible stroke and miss one around 3 feet. But it's one of the stronger parts of my game so I probably do take it for granted at times. 

Edited by TLUBulldogGolf
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1 minute ago, bladehunter said:


 

i think with lag putts it’s same. Work on the lags. But you also want to work on the 6 footers.  I personally don’t see anyone consistently lagging inside 5 feet from 30.  I’d say 50% at best.  Maybe. 
 

You must play with awful putters lol. I don't keep my own stats anymore, but I can confidently say I am likely north of 85% (maybe  even 90%) lagging it inside 5ft from 30ft away. 

 

Since I am confident in my lag putting skill, I spend most of my time working on 4-8ft. 

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I can't make the math work just using SG data. Lagging from 33' to 6' is not great, and it seems to make common sense that this first putt is where "most of the strokes were lost", as opposed to missing the remaining 6' putt, but the SG numbers can't seem to quantify it.

 

Maybe a way to look at it is:

PGA Tour three putt percentage from 33' = ~5%

PGA Tour two putt percentage from 6' = ~34%

 

So you are much more likely to 2-putt from 6' than 3-putt from 33'. Maybe there's some way to massage those numbers into some quantifiable "how bad was the first putt" number.

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9 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

i think with lag putts it’s same. Work on the lags. But you also want to work on the 6 footers.  I personally don’t see anyone consistently lagging inside 5 feet from 30.  I’d say 50% at best.  Maybe.

 

4 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

You must play with awful putters lol. I don't keep my own stats anymore, but I can confidently say I am likely north of 85% (maybe  even 90%) lagging it inside 5ft from 30ft away. 

 

Since I am confident in my lag putting skill, I spend most of my time working on 4-8ft. 

 

Here comes the nerdy one (I'm 6'4, 220 by the way haha) that tracks everything...

all putts over30ft -> inside 5ft : 85% on the nose...

all putts over30ft -> inside 3ft : 58%

... we might be on to something here!

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