Let's talk 3 jacks!... who's fault is it?

[PracticeSwinger]

I'm a numbers guys - and wanted to see if I could get info on my 3 putts avoidance and surprinsgly enough when gathering the Strokes gained data on 3 jacks and looking at SG data for every putt individually - I find that 60% of the SG is lost on the 2nd putt and 40% on the first putt... meaning that, for example, when I 3putt from 33 feet, while leaving it 6 feet short on the first try - missing the 6 footer is the more costly shot...

(scratch data - 33ft 2.16 / 6ft 1.45 / 1ft 1.09)

 

Found that interesting as the general instruction for 3 putt avoidance is always on lag putting distance control; make sure that when you're at least 30ft away, get it inside a 3ft circle... that is obviously sound advice and will reduce immersely the number of three-jacks with those tap ins... but one could argue that the far better strategy to make sure you minimize three putt occurence is to boost up your 6 footers make rate... not sure it's earth shattering - but the default tip everywhere to 'work on 3putt avoidance' has always been on distance control rather than practising a lot from short range to make sure you close these one out... Am I way off base here?

[mikpga]

For better players, they control distance much better and make a higher percentage of putts from inside 6 feet…

 

For higher handicappers, they do control distance so so, and they absolutely suck from inside 6 feet…

 

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by mikpga

[ShortGolfer]

Depends on how tough the greens are.   If the pin is located so that any missed downhill  putt will roll off the green, lag putting is useless.

The approach shot  has to end up below the pin, to allow an uphill putt.  Then you have a much better chance of getting close to the pin and two putting.

 

[SNIPERBBB]

Lot more pressure on that 6 footer to avoid the three putt. Hard to train people out of that. 

[PracticeSwinger]

12 minutes ago, ShortGolfer said:

Depends on how tough the greens are.   If the pin is located so that any missed downhill  putt will roll off the green, lag putting is useless.

The approach shot  has to end up below the pin, to allow an uphill putt.  Then you have a much better chance of getting close to the pin and two putting.

 

Agree to a certain extent - but i'm looking at the grand scheme - so that this green or that one, gets blurred into the generalities... for example, if we say that our goal next year is to never 3 putt and have 30 mins to practice putting daily duraing the winter months (totally hypothetical scenario)... should we focus on boosting our 6ft make rate or improving our lags from 40ish ft to 3ft? (and I know it's not a 'or' scenriao, but just for the sake of the discussion)

[MelloYello]

Yeah, that jives with what I've often experienced which is that "good" players tend to have a few really critical putts each round between 4-8' that they always seem to make where others wouldn't. 

 

It's easy to miss those putts from 4-8' and blame it on the previous lag putt not being good enough, but the reality is you're probably never going to lag them perfectly all the time.

 

At some point you will have to make an important putt of some uncomfortable length. That's were good technique and concentration skills come in handy! 😉

[ShortGolfer]

In a couple dozen rounds I've had exactly one 40ish long putt.   There is only one green that wide or long on the course I play!

[Abh159]

9 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

Agree to a certain extent - but i'm looking at the grand scheme - so that this green or that one, gets blurred into the generalities... for example, if we say that our goal next year is to never 3 putt and have 30 mins to practice putting daily duraing the winter months (totally hypothetical scenario)... should we focus on boosting our 6ft make rate or improving our lags from 40ish ft to 3ft? (and I know it's not a 'or' scenriao, but just for the sake of the discussion)

 

I think you have to treat them as a unit if that makes sense. What I mean is... 

 

Sure, working on making more 6 footers (for example) would benefit you and help bring down the three putts. However, if that causes you to neglect the first putt / lag putt which turns those 6 footers into 9 footers then being able to make more 6 footers becomes sort of pointless right?

 

I think only you could determine what is actually more harmful for your scores (the first putt or the second).

 

Do you miss a lot of putts from 4-8 feet regardless of if it's your first, second, or third putt? If so, then improving those would be a big help.

 

Do you usually only tend to struggle with that length when it it to avoid a three putt? If that's the case I think you'd be better off working on getting your first putt closer.

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Abh159

[PracticeSwinger]

12 minutes ago, MelloYello said:

Yeah, that jives with what I've often experienced which is that "good" players tend to have a few really critical putts each round between 4-8' that they always seem to make where others wouldn't. 

 

It's easy to miss those putts from 4-8' and blame it on the previous lag putt not being good enough, but the reality is you're probably never going to lag them perfectly all the time.

 

At some point you will have to make an important putt of some uncomfortable length. That's were good technique and concentration skills come in handy! 😉

Correct - and the fact that you have a lot more 4-8-12' putts in a round than over 30footers (let's say 8 to 2?)... would lead us to devote practice time to the shorter ones...

[Barfolomew]

Ya you're right....

 

Short putts are underrated by most........ as far as making sure your practicing and dialed in on them

 

I think many dont understand that you wanna make it on the high side of the cup and a low side make is not a good putt....... you'll take it but too many think it was a good putt. When ya miss a short one on the low side you actually missed your spot by about 4-5 inches not 1-2 inches

 

6 footers are pivotal.... and regular ones are not that hard so you gotta make em.... cause if you get a very tricky 6 foot slider the odds just changed so you gotta make the straight forward ones to balance out the universe 🦃

[jholz]

In order to build a strong defense against three putting, I think you need at least a couple of defensive layers (i.e. skills).

 

Good lag putting is always going to be my first line of defense. Ideally I'd like to hit a good first putt and tap in something from inside three feet.

 

But, I also know that sometimes I mess up lag putts. Sometimes, I don't get the tap in. So, my 4' - 8' putting better be pretty good too.

 

As a result, I practice all of these putts in my practice routine. I start at 3'-4', move to 6'-8', then 12'-15', then anything longer than 20' - every single time.

 

Now this doesn't mean that I never three putt, but it's pretty rare. Now, if only I could one putt more.

Edited October 3, 2022 by jholz

[PracticeSwinger]

14 minutes ago, Abh159 said:

I think only you could determine what is actually more harmful for your scores (the first putt or the second).

 

Do you miss a lot of putts from 4-8 feet regardless of if it's your first, second, or third putt? If so, then improving those would be a big help.

 

Do you usually only tend to struggle with that length when it it to avoid a three putt? If that's the case I think you'd be better off working on getting your first putt closer.

 

Oh I do have that info (told you I'm a numbers guy haha)... and, for example, on 6 footers... my make rate is higher when it's to avoid a 3jacks than it is when it's a first putt (not sure if it's a large enough sample data though) - some of it has to be related to the read I got from the 1st putt...

 

only leads to more question because the numbers show I'm an average putter from that distance; well, it is actually broke down between a good putter to avoid 3jacks and a poor one from initial read?...

[Abh159]

1 minute ago, MtlJayMan said:

Oh I do have that info (told you I'm a numbers guy haha)... and, for example, on 6 footers... my make rate is higher when it's to avoid a 3jacks than it is when it's a first putt (not sure if it's a large enough sample data though) - some of it has to be related to the read I got from the 1st putt...

 

only leads to more question because the numbers show I'm an average putter from that distance; well, it is actually broke down between a good putter to avoid 3jacks and a poor one from initial read?...

 

Sounds like all hope is lost... Time to hit the bar!

[Krt22]

1 hour ago, MtlJayMan said:

 I find that 60% of the SG is lost on the 2nd putt and 40% on the first putt... meaning that, for example, when I 3putt from 33 feet, while leaving it 6 feet short on the first try - missing the 6 footer is the more costly shot...

(scratch data - 33ft 2.16 / 6ft 1.45 / 1ft 1.09)

 

 

How did you come to this conclusion? If you 3 putt from 33ft, you lost .84 strokes. If you 2 putt from 6ft, you lost .55 strokes. 

 

The error was leaving yourself a 6ft second putt from only 33ft IMHO. Sure you can say you "gain" more 1 putting from 6ft than you gain from 2 putting from 33ft, but you still have to account for the first putt taken

 

1 hour ago, MtlJayMan said:

but the default tip everywhere to 'work on 3putt avoidance' has always been on distance control rather than practising a lot from short range to make sure you close these one out... Am I way off base here?

I think so. The goal is to leave your 2nd putt in the most makeable position possible. From 2ft an in, it's almost 100%, even for amateurs, from 3ft and in decent ams are still highly proficient.  If you are truly awful at the short ones, then yes it should be an area of focus to get better. However even if you putted with PGA tour proficiency from 6ft, you will still have a lower make percentage than a decent putter from 3ft. Once you are outside 3ft break, random chance, green imperfects, etc all start to play a larger role, so leaving any longer than that for a 2nd putt should be the goal

 

Getting good in the 4-8ft range is universally good, but it's more about making 1 putts, making those short birdies, getting up and down for par from off the green, or making 2nd putts on very very long putts (ie 50ft+).

 

 

[Jace_bkr]

I know its not the answer you are seeking nor the question asked but in the grand scheme of things lowering the percentage of 3 jacks is going to rely more on your approach game than your lag skills..

 

 

 

 

[Krt22]

7 minutes ago, Jace_bkr said:

I know its not the answer you are seeking nor the question asked but in the grand scheme of things lowering the percentage of 3 jacks is going to rely more on your approach game than your lag skills..

 

 

 

 

That depends on where you are 3-jacking. If you 3-jack from 20-30ft, that is much different than 3-jacking from 40-50ft. And just about anyone can get proficient at putting and 3-putt avoidance IMHO, that is a much easier feat than dramatically improving your proximity. 

[Jace_bkr]

Just now, Krt22 said:

That depends on where you are 3-jacking. If you 3-jack from 20-30ft, that is much different than 3-jacking from 40-50ft. And just about anyone can get proficient at putting and 3-putt avoidance IMHO, that is a much easier feat than dramatically improving your proximity. 

 

Cant argue with that logic. 

 

Proximity will always be the key to better scores though...

[Abh159]

4 minutes ago, Jace_bkr said:

 

Cant argue with that logic. 

 

Proximity will always be the key to better scores though...

 

The average PGA Tour player's "proximity to hole" for approach shots was almost 37 feet in 2022. 

 

99.99% of amateurs are better off improving their chipping/pitching or putting skills if they are wanting to lower their scores.

[Krt22]

7 minutes ago, Abh159 said:

 

 

99.99% of amateurs are better off improving their chipping/pitching or putting skills if they are wanting to lower their scores.

100% false. Some amateurs are truely awful around the greens. but the biggest difference between every single skill level is ball striking 

[Jace_bkr]

2 minutes ago, Abh159 said:

 

The average PGA Tour player's "proximity to hole" for approach shots was almost 37 feet in 2022. 

 

99.99% of amateurs are better off improving their chipping/pitching or putting skills if they are wanting to lower their scores.

 

99.99% ????

 

I agree, the Average 15-18 cap is much better off working on chipping/putting to improve but a single digit cap is going to be pretty proficient in chipping/ putting.. 

 

 

[bladehunter]

Be careful.  I found this out a while back.  Tried to “ make more “ inside 10 ft.  3 putted even more.    Apparently putting is a thing you have to slip up on while acting as if you don’t care , and while not trying.  I think that’s the clinical definition of an accidental happening.  Makes that is.  So heck if I know.  

[PracticeSwinger]

1 hour ago, Krt22 said:

How did you come to this conclusion? If you 3 putt from 33ft, you lost .84 strokes. If you 2 putt from 6ft, you lost .55 strokes. 

 

The error was leaving yourself a 6ft second putt from only 33ft IMHO. Sure you can say you "gain" more 1 putting from 6ft than you gain from 2 putting from 33ft, but you still have to account for the first putt taken

Agree completely on the second phrase... the idea of the thread, as mentioned in my first post, was that I found it surprising that the second putt was the worse one of the two SG wise... leaving yourself a 6footer from 33 feet is definitely a bad stroke, can't argue with that

 

(and for the math... decomposition of every stroke as it is always the case for SG data, yields... 3putts from 33ft = -0.84 and 2putts from 6ft = -0.55 implies 33ft -> 6ft = -0.29... 6ft miss = -0.55... thus the 2nd one was 'more costly' on that 33ft 3jacks) 

[Krt22]

1 minute ago, MtlJayMan said:

 

 

(and for the math... decomposition of every stroke as it is always the case for SG data, yields... 3putts from 33ft = -0.84 and 2putts from 6ft = -0.55 implies 33ft -> 6ft = -0.29... 6ft miss = -0.55... thus the 2nd one was 'more costly' on that 33ft 3jacks) 

I don't think that is the correct. SG putting is about one thing, how many strokes to hole out from a given distance, which is why most calculators don't track 2nd putt length

[DLiver]

I track SG, and it is clear that short putts are about the most volatile value in SG. About the only things that create larger swings in SG are shots that result in penalties.

[PracticeSwinger]

5 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

I don't think that is the correct. SG putting is about one thing, how many strokes to hole out from a given distance, which is why most calculators don't track 2nd putt length

But that would defeat the whole purpose of every other SG calculations... to find out how many strokes your tee shot was accounted for... you substract the exepected average strokes to hole out from the distance/lie you are left with from the expected average strokes to hole out from that tee box distance, minus the stroke you just made... why would that concept be invalid on the putting green? (not saying that isn't the case, just curious since it is the whole foundation of SG)

Edited October 3, 2022 by MtlJayMan
typo

[Krt22]

2 minutes ago, MtlJayMan said:

But that would defeat the whole purpose of every other SG calculations... to find out how many strokes your tee shot was accounted for... you substract the exepected average strokes to hole out from the distance/lie you are left with from the expected average strokes to hole out from that tee box distance, minus the stroke you just made... why would that concept be invalid on the putting green? (not saying that isn't the case, just curious since it is the whole foundation of SG)

Because there aren't any extra strokes to gain once you are on the green, you can at best 1 putt. If you putt from 33ft to 3ft, there isn't anything to record.

[PracticeSwinger]

7 minutes ago, Krt22 said:

Because there aren't any extra strokes to gain once you are on the green, you can at best 1 putt. If you putt from 33ft to 3ft, there isn't anything to record.

Talk about a system selling itself short - based on it's foundation to know : how good/bad was every single shot you made on the course was compared to peers - but let's not do it on the green, let's view this aspect as a whole...

 

Rory 2putts from 36ft while running the first putt 11ft by... while Scheffler 2putts from 36ft leaving himself a 1inch tap in... it's obvisouly even SG:ptt... but I'd argue that Scheffler's first putt was better than Rory, and that Rory had to gain it back on the second one... like they decompose every other shot they hit from every distance and lie on the golf course...

 

By the way, nothing against you or your replies - just thought the system would decompose every shot

[betarhoalphadelta]

1 hour ago, Jace_bkr said:

I know its not the answer you are seeking nor the question asked but in the grand scheme of things lowering the percentage of 3 jacks is going to rely more on your approach game than your lag skills..

 

 

I dunno... I three-putt too often, but my lowest three-putt percentage round (and highest one-putt percentage round) in recent memory was the one where I made absolutely zero GIR. I was chipping-pitching to pins rather than hitting approaches into greens. 

 

Seems I reduced my 3-putt percentage my being WORSE than normal on my approaches 😉

 

[PracticeSwinger]

3 minutes ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

 

I dunno... I three-putt too often, but my lowest three-putt percentage round (and highest one-putt percentage round) in recent memory was the one where I made absolutely zero GIR. I was chipping-pitching to pins rather than hitting approaches into greens. 

 

Seems I reduced my 3-putt percentage my being WORSE than normal on my approaches 😉

 

Haha that’s for sure… you need to account for your up&down (and/or scrambling) stats along your #putts average from GIR and non GIR to have a complete view of short game

[m d g]

"Let's talk 3 jacks!... who's fault is it?"

 

It's the putter's fault. It's always the fault of the equipment.

 

Are you really a golfer?