Green Reading, the Wisdom of the Crowd

[dogsbe]

Today, I was playing a short par 4 and drove the green with a 20 foot putt for Eagle. The putt was a bit of a downhill slider, right to left putt. It was a pretty difficult put to read. What I have noticed was a lot of trail lines from the moisture on the grass. I suspected, a lot of people had near enough the same putt that I had. Obviously, the trail lines vanished around the hole, foot prints. So, I could not determine which trail line was going to hole the putt.

What popped in my head is the Wisdom of the Crowd. If you don't know, if you take a jar of jelly beans and ask people to guess, the average of their guesses will be pretty darn close to the actual number, say =/- 1%, provide the sample size is big enough.

So, there were at least 10 trail lines I could just about see, sample size was small, but the on this 20 ft putt, everyone's line was no wider than 8 inches.

I took a leap of faith and just targeted the middle of the the trail lines. A nice little eagle appeared on my card.

I have been playing for over 30 years, I have never once used the Wisdom of the Crowd to read a putt. I have used trail lines in the past, as we all have.

I am keen on exploring this concept, where ever I can. For example, par 3 tee boxes, where there are are loads of divots. You could get the tee position and line by taking the average.

At the professional level, this could be a very powerful tool, as their drives tend to all land in the same spot and they tend to take divots. At the amateur level, the opportunity to take the advantage of the wisdom of the crowd is a lot less.

 

My question to the forum, is where on the course can you see evidence of play to invoke the wisdom of the crowd?

 

 

 

 

 

[Pepperturbo]

I'd like to give you an answer but I don't read greens using moisture trails or wisdom of the crowd. I don't know anyone that uses that technique. I play to 4-5 and as low as 2, in regional events, lots of match play events as well as for real money. I am accustom to playing early and using traditional topography influences. But good luck with that.

[RobertBaron]

Personally I wouldn’t rely moisture trails just because they’re hardly ever there in Southern California unless you play early in morning.

[Justsomeguy]

This is kind of a game theory approach. I dig it.

I also like to occasionally see the line on a totally flat putt with the shadow of the flagstick.

I've come to the conclusion that whatever works - use it.

[dogsbe]

Yes, I play the same level of game you do. Using the Wisdom of the Crowd is something that never came to mind before and I never seen anyone ever mentioning it. I was just looking a tricky putt for eagle and I could barely see the trailing lines, but they were there with no clear pathway to the hole.

I am very much in mindset, I don't care what others are doing, I just play my game. However, if the course is scared from play and there is a pattern presents itself, how do you interpret the data or do you just ignore it.

In a field of Category 1 players or pros, the shot pattern can be very tight, particularly at A position off the tee. You can clearly see the divots and where others have aimed. The question is do you simply ignore this data? If no, how do you effectively interpret the data? Using a very mathematical principle, the Wisdom of the Crowd, draw a line of best fit. The beauty of this idea is that everybody is guessing, some will over estimate and others will under estimate, but when you have a bunch of super computers working, their combined average will give you the right calculation. At least, that is the theory.

 

I am just thinking there is more data out on the course, that we have all missing. It is not going to present itself often, when it does, we should listen.

 

 

[dogsbe]

Spot on, this is game theory! An idea to build into your golf algorithm and something to look forward, particularly when you a guessing. I am interested in how to exploit this idea further.

 

[brew4eagle]

I would only see it possibly mattering for the putting scenario you presented. Divots from tee shots on par 3s, and related scenarios are not relevant as people take different lines based on shot shapes, trajectories, strategy, etc. Even if the majority take a particular approach it may not be the best for your swing.

[Hawkeye77]

Divots on tee box useless.

Water trails on putts will give anyone a general idea of break if there is still dew on the ground. Read the putt, if some trail conforms to your read go for it. Given they don’t usually continue to the hole, seems like it will rarely be different than your read and not really provide the detail of what happens within a couple feet of the hole, if that.

Seems marginally useful the few times it may be useful.

 

[LeoLeo99]

On the app 18birdies, there is a feature that tells you the average scores for missing the fairway left or right on the particular hole. They do similar on TV for PGAtour when they show scores in relation to certain drives and areas of the hole. I find it pretty cool as a math geek. For example, average score when going for the green on a short par 4 vs laying up. We all estimate these things in our heads when we are deciding what shot to hit in certain situations. It's nice to see actual data.

[Soloman1]

I don't see wisdom of the crowd here. I see it as only trying to glean information from remnants of past events during different conditions and unknown intentions that had an unknown outcome.

You're better off watching the putt of a playing partner roll by the hole and call it simply being an interested observer.

Anyway, the crowd in the aggregate is a bad golfer.

[Z1ggy16]

Seems like a rare thing for most people. Moisture or sand lines only appear in very certain situations.... Not much opportunity to use this...

[Pepperturbo]

I understand, maybe there is? Yet, watching or playing with pros hasn't indicated that. I've seen plenty of dew trails but never seen one finish in the cup, thanks to foot prints. Never considered divot location in fairways either, hard to see them from the tee. However, design intent is nearly always visible. On a new or infrequently played course, I let the course designer tell me where to hit to then pull the appropriate club.

Now-a-days, Category 1 and Pros miss fairways even with irons, so IMO divots may not be trustable indicators for anything other than how far they hit it and a leave. In other words, too many good golfers seek to over power courses so hit driver off tees. As an old fa*t, I opt for experience and old fashion way over theory.

On a related note, damn, I love my new driver shaft and Titleist 620s, and this game. If yesterdays game with friends on a difficult hilly course with highly undulated greens was any indication; they hit driver or wood on nearly every hole to what they thought was the fairway spot to be, never accounting for variables. To their surprise, that presented a number of fun missed fairway 2nd shots. When I don't know or can't see I alternated between 2-4i and limit driver use. Though I had longer shots in, at 18, again I took all the $$$. My game, as friends say, tends to be in the middle boring, golf the old fashion way.

Hope you play well this weekend.