Some "Can't Miss" Kids Still Do

[MB19]

1 hour ago, heavy_hitter said:

 

Certain players are products of the system especially in hoops and certain positions in football.

This is very true.

 

I do think Laettner would have been an AA anywhere back then, though--just not the centerpiece of a National Championship team, perhaps.

[kekoa]

We attended the sdsu golf camp yesterday and had the pleasure of playing 18 with Gunn Yang walking with the kids.  He won the 2014 US AM.  If you look at past US Am's, a majority are on tour.  He had back issues and plans to go through Q school.  I thought it was interesting as nothing is guaranteed even though you win the highest level am tournament in the world. 

[nsxguy]

56 minutes ago, jholz said:

At least if the stories are true, Marv Marinovich's behavior could easily be construed as abuse. It was over the top, I think. 

 

That being said, it worked. Even with him being whacked out and sort of hating it the entire time, Todd Marinovich had a storybook career in some ways, both at USC and in the pros.  

 

Sure could be considered abuse.

 

That said, did it really "work" ? Little more than a journeyman QB. Not Joe Montana and not Ryan Leaf. Do we know how Marinovich's mind was affected by so much work over so relatively little time ?

 

But "Elite" vs. "Can't miss" ? Talk about a hairsplitter's convention.

 

Problem is, for whatever reason(s), be it physical, mental, whatever, NOBODY knows where anyone's eventual "glass ceiling" is.

[Dog Lover]

"It is indisputable Laettner was the 3rd best player in that draft both going in and 28 years later.  No player drafted behind him had a better NBA career."

 

I think Sprewell had a better NBA career than Laettner. Four All Star games. Nut job I know, but a better NBA career IMO. I also think PJ Brown would get taken ahead of Laettner in a do over 1992 draft. Not the stats of Laettner, but very hard to appreciate PJ Brown's value from a stat sheet comparison.  

 

Agree about Shaq in college. It would be very difficult to imagine Duke not actually being better with Shaq than Laettner during those years. I do remember Larry Bird calling Shaq the best player in the world when he was in college. Ha,ha....Larry probably just said that to shade MJ.

 

 

[Curmudg3on]

If you want can't miss look no farther than the Detroit professional teams.   Charles Rogers of the Detroit Lions was an all can do at Michigan State and a very early draft pick.   Darko Milicic of the Detroit Pistons was drafted ahead of other future NBA stars like Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade.

 

It takes more than talent to make it to the next level and stay there.

[Medson]

3 hours ago, DennyJones said:

If you want can't miss look no farther than the Detroit professional teams.   Charles Rogers of the Detroit Lions was an all can do at Michigan State and a very early draft pick.   Darko Milicic of the Detroit Pistons was drafted ahead of other future NBA stars like Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade.

 

It takes more than talent to make it to the next level and stay there.

 

It is still puzzling me what teams see in Milicic. BTW, Pistons weren't the only one who thought highly of Milicic, they just happened to pick no.2. I think it was a toss up between Milicic and Anthony. The problems with Anthony (at least for Pistons) are 1) he was too much perceived as a pure scorer. Pistons in 2004 were very much team oriented; 2) Pistons had Tayshaun Prince already. 

[MB19]

11 hours ago, Dog Lover said:

"It is indisputable Laettner was the 3rd best player in that draft both going in and 28 years later.  No player drafted behind him had a better NBA career."

 

I think Sprewell had a better NBA career than Laettner. Four All Star games. Nut job I know, but a better NBA career IMO. I also think PJ Brown would get taken ahead of Laettner in a do over 1992 draft. Not the stats of Laettner, but very hard to appreciate PJ Brown's value from a stat sheet comparison.  

 

Agree about Shaq in college. It would be very difficult to imagine Duke not actually being better with Shaq than Laettner during those years. I do remember Larry Bird calling Shaq the best player in the world when he was in college. Ha,ha....Larry probably just said that to shade MJ.

 

 

You got me with Sprewell, but disagree completely on PJ Brown.

[MB19]

11 hours ago, DennyJones said:

If you want can't miss look no farther than the Detroit professional teams.   Charles Rogers of the Detroit Lions was an all can do at Michigan State and a very early draft pick.   Darko Milicic of the Detroit Pistons was drafted ahead of other future NBA stars like Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade.

 

It takes more than talent to make it to the next level and stay there.

Darko, like any Euro taken back then, was far from a can't miss.  Yes, lots of GMs went on the record as saying they would have taken him in that draft at 2--but this kid wasn't even a starter when he was scouted.  Anthony (26K+ career points) was the clear-cut 2nd best player at the time of the draft, as he had just lead 'Cuse to an NC as a Frosh and was widely considered the best scorer in the draft (at that time).  Anthony had been evaluated for years on the AAU, camp, HS and college circuits.  Darko was a case of drafting on pure projection, which sometimes is a must in the NBA due to the near-necessity of drafting teenagers to keep a franchise competitive.  Many Pistons fans--me included--were angry on draft day that Dumars passed on Anthony and Bosh (they already had Hamilton and Billups, so Wade wasn't an immediate need) for a kid his Under-20 team wouldn't play in the championships.  Ultimately, Darko ended up being a useful pro after he left Detroit and signing just south of $30M in NBA contracts once he did.  If you make $50M, did you *really* miss?  He didn't die, he didn't turn up in a crack house, and he didn't ruin his career (his projections just never materialized, he never put up big numbers anywhere as an amateur).  Soul-crushing Detroit fans and putting a major dent in Dumars' legacy with the Pistons organization is a different convo, IMO.

 

The Rogers comparison is much closer to can't miss, as he was an absolute beast at MSU.  Too bad he liked smoking weed more than football, because drafting second overall him set the Lions back massively.  Like I said upthread, it is harder to put a can't-miss tag on a football player because of the injury factor--and Rogers' clavicle betrayed him two-straight years.

[MB19]

8 hours ago, Medson said:

 

It is still puzzling me what teams see in Milicic. BTW, Pistons weren't the only one who thought highly of Milicic, they just happened to pick no.2. I think it was a toss up between Milicic and Anthony. The problems with Anthony (at least for Pistons) are 1) he was too much perceived as a pure scorer. Pistons in 2004 were very much team oriented; 2) Pistons had Tayshaun Prince already. 

It's funny that Dumars didn't see a way for both Anthony and Prince to play 30 min per-game, as Tay was such a swiss army knife capable of playing three positions.  In a draft where it was almost impossible to go wrong to a team on the brink of a possible dynasty... hard pill to swallow.

[Dog Lover]

1 hour ago, MB19 said:

You got me with Sprewell, but disagree completely on PJ Brown.

I think virtually every GM and coach would take Brown over Laettner in a 1992 re-draft knowing what we know now.

 

Again, PJ Brown contributions did not always show up on a stat sheet. Specifically, he was an elite post defender and one of toughest players in NBA during his entire career and during an era when that meant a lot. He also came up clutch in the playoffs and was one of the best locker room guys in the leaque. Widely respected by teammates and definitely feared by opponents.

 

Laetter maybe had the better stats, but he was traded 6 times and never stayed anywhere very long and was not  a good teammate nor elite at the NBA at anything.  

 

There was a reason why a team (2008 Celtics) loaded with all star veterans players and top level coaches coaxed an old PJ Brown out of retirement for their stretch run. Pretty sure Doc, Thibs, KG nor Pierce said...... "hey let's get Laetter"?

[MB19]

4 hours ago, Dog Lover said:

I think virtually every GM and coach would take Brown over Laettner in a 1992 re-draft knowing what we know now.

 

Again, PJ Brown contributions did not always show up on a stat sheet. Specifically, he was an elite post defender and one of toughest players in NBA during his entire career and during an era when that meant a lot. He also came up clutch in the playoffs and was one of the best locker room guys in the leaque. Widely respected by teammates and definitely feared by opponents.

 

Laetter maybe had the better stats, but he was traded 6 times and never stayed anywhere very long and was not  a good teammate nor elite at the NBA at anything.  

 

There was a reason why a team (2008 Celtics) loaded with all star veterans players and top level coaches coaxed an old PJ Brown out of retirement for their stretch run. Pretty sure Doc, Thibs, KG nor Pierce said...... "hey let's get Laetter"?

After Laettner ruptured his achilles he was a shadow of himself--so yeah, not sure why the 2008 Celtics would want him three seasons post-retirement to boot.  He did manage to play 7 seasons after the injury, but like most who suffer that injury he was never close to the same (Kobe and 'Nique are outliers).  PJ was, for the most part, a league-average 4--his longevity being his most remarkable attribute.  He was a pro's pro who had the respect of his peers, which is something Laettner never had due to his personality, questionable presence on the Dream Team and more.  But until he ruptured his achilles, Laettner was the better player and a much different player--a stretch 4/5 compared to Brown's traditional 4/5 grinder.  

 

Getting traded is part of the business of professional basketball.  Laettner was traded six times, Brown traded four times.  Chauncey Billups was traded five times and was one of the most popular players among players during his playing days, on top of his All-NBA, All-Defense selections and NBA Finals MVP.  Mark Jackson is 4th all-time in assists and he was traded seven times.

 

Glue guys like PJ Brown are important parts of many title teams (AC Green and Udonis Haslem are other great examples), but don't get it twisted--at his best, Laettner was the All-Star 2nd option on a very good Hawks team (Mutombo, Steve Smith, Blaylock) that got run over by the second running of Jordan's Bulls (like everyone else did). 

 

I will say that it is a shame that professional grinders like Brown, Ty Hill, Elden Campbell, Antonio Davis, Dale Davis, Olden Polynice, Otis Thorpe, Kevin Willis and Rony Seikaly aren't as in demand as they once were.

[Dog Lover]

4 hours ago, MB19 said:

After Laettner ruptured his achilles he was a shadow of himself--so yeah, not sure why the 2008 Celtics would want him three seasons post-retirement to boot.  He did manage to play 7 seasons after the injury, but like most who suffer that injury he was never close to the same (Kobe and 'Nique are outliers).  PJ was, for the most part, a league-average 4--his longevity being his most remarkable attribute.  He was a pro's pro who had the respect of his peers, which is something Laettner never had due to his personality, questionable presence on the Dream Team and more.  But until he ruptured his achilles, Laettner was the better player and a much different player--a stretch 4/5 compared to Brown's traditional 4/5 grinder.  

 

Getting traded is part of the business of professional basketball.  Laettner was traded six times, Brown traded four times.  Chauncey Billups was traded five times and was one of the most popular players among players during his playing days, on top of his All-NBA, All-Defense selections and NBA Finals MVP.  Mark Jackson is 4th all-time in assists and he was traded seven times.

 

Glue guys like PJ Brown are important parts of many title teams (AC Green and Udonis Haslem are other great examples), but don't get it twisted--at his best, Laettner was the All-Star 2nd option on a very good Hawks team (Mutombo, Steve Smith, Blaylock) that got run over by the second running of Jordan's Bulls (like everyone else did). 

 

I will say that it is a shame that professional grinders like Brown, Ty Hill, Elden Campbell, Antonio Davis, Dale Davis, Olden Polynice, Otis Thorpe, Kevin Willis and Rony Seikaly aren't as in demand as they once were.

Pretty sure Brown was traded only twice. Signed with Heat as FA and of course came out of retirement to sign as FA with Celtics. Hornets just moved to NO.  Unlike Billups  and Jackson, Laettner just never stayed anywhere very long. 

 

Plenty of grinders today too. Not all bigs like you mentioned, but Draymond, Marcus Smart, PJ Tucker,  Patrick Beverley,  Steven Adams, Sabonis,  Brandon Clarke,  Brook Lopez, Abedayo, IGGY, Jrue, Montrezl Harrell, Morris twins and most of entire Raptors team put in their work.  Different game now though. 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Dog Lover

[Dog Lover]

23 hours ago, DennyJones said:

If you want can't miss look no farther than the Detroit professional teams.   Charles Rogers of the Detroit Lions was an all can do at Michigan State and a very early draft pick.   Darko Milicic of the Detroit Pistons was drafted ahead of other future NBA stars like Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade.

 

It takes more than talent to make it to the next level and stay there.

Unfortunately, Luke Kennard instead of Donovan Mitchell could be another decade of pain too. Drafting well in the NBA is harder than it looks however.

[MB19]

15 hours ago, Dog Lover said:

Pretty sure Brown was traded only twice. Signed with Heat as FA and of course came out of retirement to sign as FA with Celtics. Hornets just moved to NO.  Unlike Billups  and Jackson, Laettner just never stayed anywhere very long. 

 

Plenty of grinders today too. Not all bigs like you mentioned, but Draymond, Marcus Smart, PJ Tucker,  Patrick Beverley,  Steven Adams, Sabonis,  Brandon Clarke,  Brook Lopez, Abedayo, IGGY, Jrue, Montrezl Harrell, Morris twins and most of entire Raptors team put in their work.  Different game now though. 

 

 

Brown 's draft slot was traded twice, so technically traded four times.   Laettner was traded exactly once before the injury, and that was entirely due to his bad relationship with Kevin Garnett.  So,  healthy Brown was traded twice and a healthy Laettner was traded once.

 

Laettner ruptured his achilles right after turning 29 before the 98-99 season and it is the reason Detroit was able to acquire him for the low price of Scott Pollard and a 1st round pick.  You can count on one hand (with fingers to spare) the players who came back close to 100% after that injury in basketball, so of course he was going to turn into a journeyman after that.

 

Minny dealing Laettner to ATL was all part of the franchise's dumpster fire that was their first several years.  Garnett was a raw, popular rookie back then who was wildly talented but physically underdeveloped.  Laettner had won two NCs in college, played with the Dream Team, and then came to historically bad NBA team that had won 15 games before his arrival and and eventually featured noted headcases like Chuck Person, JR Rider and Brad Sellers.  After losing for a few seasons with badly composed rosters, and given Laettner and Garnett's notoriously strong personalities, things were ripe to explode.  The T'Wolves created another powder keg years later when they gave Garnett a huge contract and didn't have enough money to pay Marbury, but that is another thread.

 

Coming out of college, Brown went to Europe to play professionally--the notion that he would be drafted in the lottery is a little crazy, even with hindsight.  That he wouldn't have been able to crack a roster in front of a 34-year-old Rick Mahorn or a middling Chris Dudley is telling of where he was in his development back then.  Europe was a great sharpening tool for a select bunch of NBA role players back then, and Brown was one of the best of that group.  The NBA was wise to strengthen the G-League into a legit minor leagues years back, even if it is an incomplete process of changing it into a true farm system.

 

Like I said, the 4/5 grinder big of the past is an endangered species.  Iggy is a backcourt grinder now, but he was once a borderline star.  Calling offense-minded Sabonis and Bam grinders seems cheap.  Draymond is a unique player--hard to call a 4 who has averaged 7 dimes or more three times a grinder, though.