Match play final.. Was I hustled?

[Hstead]

The Club Championship at the two courses I have belonged to do not set the greens any faster, rough any higher, etc for Club tournaments vs every day. Our greens are always running around 10, the rough is always cut the same days of the week, etc. We have events often, Calcutta, Member Guest, Club Championship, Match Play Championship, Member/Member, just to name a few and the setup is always the same. We also host an AJGA tournament that we have hosted for 26 years and again, no real difference in setup. It is not like you are going to a USGA event.

And for the record, I was called dense, not the other way around.

[kellygreen]

[quote name='Sean2' timestamp='1381189299' post='7967403']
I now feel bad for the guy who was suspended from our club a couple of years ago. He was a mid-handicapper who always shot well below his HI in tournaments. I now know he was just having a good day during tournaments.
[/quote]

Rare events happen. They don't keep happening to the same person.

As the old saying goes, "[i]Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern. Four times is a character flaw."[/i]

[Sean2]

[quote name='kellygreen' timestamp='1381195852' post='7968007']
[quote name='Sean2' timestamp='1381189299' post='7967403']
I now feel bad for the guy who was suspended from our club a couple of years ago. He was a mid-handicapper who always shot well below his HI in tournaments. I now know he was just having a good day during tournaments.
[/quote]

Rare events happen. They don't keep happening to the same person.

As the old saying goes, "[i]Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern. Four times is a character flaw."[/i]
[/quote]

Thing is Kelly, at our course during a tournament our fast greens become VERY fast, difficult pins become VERY difficult (not to mention the pressure of tournament golf). NO one, not ever our best golfers, crack their handicap. When I read that someone in a tournament, under tough course conditions and tournament pressure, beats their HI by ten strokes, I become a bit dubious.

[SatelliteGuy]

[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381195509' post='7967973']
The Club Championship at the two courses I have belonged to do not set the greens any faster, rough any higher, etc for Club tournaments vs every day. Our greens are always running around 10, the rough is always cut the same days of the week, etc. We have events often, Calcutta, Member Guest, Club Championship, Match Play Championship, Member/Member, just to name a few and the setup is always the same. We also host an AJGA tournament that we have hosted for 26 years and again, no real difference in setup. It is not like you are going to a USGA event.

And for the record, I was called dense, not the other way around.
[/quote]

Certainly not by me my friend... Disagreement doesn't require a lack of respect, I sense a bit of sarcasm and condescension in your replies to people who are disagreeing but that could very well be, almost certainly, the inability to distinguish tone and intent when reading....

I think in the scenario that began this conversation is missing vital pieces of information...

Is the course difficult... Is this typical behavior from said individual... Is this person suspected of being a Sandbagger in the first place... We also know there is a difference in handicap practices in Ireland as opposed to the US....

Tough to make a determination...

[mantan]

[quote name='dirthead' timestamp='1381191800' post='7967623']
I got taken by a guy I play with regularly, who is a 12. I'm a 2. He wanted to play a Nassau with me giving him 5 shots a side. I was busy and not really paying attention when he offered, so I accepted. Lesson learned. I normally shoot anywhere from 69 to 78. He shoots from 74 to 89. The problem is that his scores really go up because he can make several doubles, triples, or even quads. He makes lots of pars and a few birdies. If we were playing stroke play, 10 shots might be ok, but not match play. If he shoots 85 and has 2 triples, well that's only 2 holes. In match play, the large numbers that screw up your total score don't hurt you nearly as much. A high handicapper that has the ability to shoot a low round can be very dangerous in match play. I learned my lesson. For match play, something like 50% of handicap differential would be a little more realistic than 100%.
[/quote]

That's a good point. Handicaps in match play are tricky. We all know golfers who have the same handicap, but two completely different games. A 12 handicap can be a 'steady Eddie' that's going to shoot 85-88 every single round, usually hitting a fair number of pars, a few bogeys and no big numbers. And another 12 can be streaky - shooting anything from an 82-100 on any given day with a lot of pars and a lot of big numbers thrown in. Given 10 strokes in match play to one type of golfer is totally different than the other.

I still contend in this case that happening to shoot a career round in the finals of match play is a bit suspect. It could happen, but most amateurs would be a bit tighter in that situation.

[Hstead]

DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='garywdixon' timestamp='1381193154' post='7967777']
How about this...and everyone will be satisfied and go on to other threads. I think it was already mentioned once.

The perp doesn't practice golf much for a few months and his handicap jumps from 9 to a 12. Then, with the tournament coming up, he practices daily for a couple of weeks...HDC still 12 but with the practice he is actually playing to a 5 or 6 with better and more consistent ball-striking. A 9 is pretty good to begin with and anybody that good should be able to shave a few strokes with a lot of practice.

I can see that happening without it being a stretch. See how easy it is to compromise...now just tell the Dems and Reps.

Oh, one other thought (also already mentioned). We don't know what was given in match play. I hit two shots OB and one in the water so give my opponent the hole after his drive. Does he card a 2 on a par 4? Nice eagle.

How about he has a 60 foot putt, you are out of the hole, and give it for a birdie? There are all sorts of possibilities about which we don't know the specifics.
[/quote]

Your first theory is most probable. The guy is really playing much better than a 12 and getting strokes he didn't deserve.

[Joe26]

[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381192265' post='7967687']
[quote name='Joe26' timestamp='1381192144' post='7967665']
When i was a 19 I shot 39 on the front.
[/quote]

Sure you did Joe. Was this your 84,000th round?
[/quote]
[attachment=1904955:39.png]

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.
[/quote]

This is why you earned your dense label. I've clearly stated that there was a 0.002% chance it could have happened. Yet, you're still trying to argue as if i'm saying that in the history of the world this has never happened.

I've given you legitimate data from the USGA who has access to scores of millions of rounds. If you disagree with their data, please feel free to provide actual evidence that they are wrong.

[TripleSingle]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381198580' post='7968271']
[quote name='garywdixon' timestamp='1381193154' post='7967777']
How about this...and everyone will be satisfied and go on to other threads. I think it was already mentioned once.

The perp doesn't practice golf much for a few months and his handicap jumps from 9 to a 12. Then, with the tournament coming up, he practices daily for a couple of weeks...HDC still 12 but with the practice he is actually playing to a 5 or 6 with better and more consistent ball-striking. A 9 is pretty good to begin with and anybody that good should be able to shave a few strokes with a lot of practice.

I can see that happening without it being a stretch. See how easy it is to compromise...now just tell the Dems and Reps.

Oh, one other thought (also already mentioned). We don't know what was given in match play. I hit two shots OB and one in the water so give my opponent the hole after his drive. Does he card a 2 on a par 4? Nice eagle.

How about he has a 60 foot putt, you are out of the hole, and give it for a birdie? There are all sorts of possibilities about which we don't know the specifics.
[/quote]

Your first theory is most probable. [b]The guy is really playing much better than a 12 and getting strokes he didn't deserv[/b]e.
[/quote]

First of all, I don't think we can straight away assume that the guy was getting strokes he didn't deserve. But what he does [b]deserve[/b] is some credit for going on a birdie, 10-pars, and 2-bogey streak. And I've said it before, it's going to be hard to beat ANYONE who goes on a streak like that, with handicap or none given. The whole statistics and odds stuff I think truly is irrelevant. I don't think any of us, including you, play golf by the odds. This isn't texas hold em. We just go out there and do the best we can. This issue really isn't about a flaw in the handicap system or tournament system. It's more of a human character problem. I'm not accusing anyone of being a sore loser, we all dont like to lose. All I'm saying is don't put yourself in a situation that will make you look like one. Part of golf is giving the other player props for playing well. This topic can go both ways. It could also be a mid-handicapper complaining about how he should have received more strokes after getting his butt kicked by a single digit handicapper.

[mosesgolf]

Total BS and that's why net tournies suck imo.

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='jihunyu' timestamp='1381200550' post='7968445']

But what he does [b]deserve[/b] is some credit for going on a birdie, 10-pars, and 2-bogey streak. [/quote]

This certainly would be deserving of credit in a gross tournament. However, is a net tournament.

[quote]And I've said it before, it's going to be hard to beat ANYONE who goes on a streak like that, with handicap or none given. [/quote]

Yes, and when you are giving 7 strokes with this performance the person will really be hard to beat

[quote]The whole statistics and odds stuff I think truly is irrelevant. I don't think any of us, including you, play golf by the odds. This isn't texas hold em. We just go out there and do the best we can. [/quote]

This doesn't make any sense. The odds I have quoted are irrelevant to how you play a match. They're important in the end result. However, we all play odds. The same way I'm going to bet more with pocket aces. I like my odds of hitting a 9 iron 130 yards much more than I like the odds of hitting my 5 iron 130 yards. I like my odds of punching back into the fairway when my ball is stuck behind a tree instead of the odds of blasting the ball through the tree.



[quote]This issue really isn't about a flaw in the handicap system or tournament system. It's more of a human character problem. I'm not accusing anyone of being a sore loser, we all dont like to lose. All I'm saying is don't put yourself in a situation that will make you look like one. Part of golf is giving the other player props for playing well. This topic can go both ways. It could also be a mid-handicapper complaining about how he should have received more strokes after getting his butt kicked by a single digit handicapper.
[/quote]

This is just idiotic, let's attack the victim and ignore the cheater. It's the equivalent of when idiots say, "Don't blame the rapist little girl, you shouldn't have gotten drunk and worn a short skirt."

[patrick421]

op-- dont play in the first place if you know rules. gross is a farce everyone knows that, im sure you do as well. lose lose for you in my opinion as the far better player. if you engage in the match though you have to live with the results.

[TripleSingle]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381201146' post='7968507']
[quote name='jihunyu' timestamp='1381200550' post='7968445']
But what he does [b]deserve[/b] is some credit for going on a birdie, 10-pars, and 2-bogey streak. [/quote]

This certainly would be deserving of credit in a gross tournament. However, is a net tournament.

[quote]And I've said it before, it's going to be hard to beat ANYONE who goes on a streak like that, with handicap or none given. [/quote]

Yes, and when you are giving 7 strokes with this performance the person will really be hard to beat

[quote]The whole statistics and odds stuff I think truly is irrelevant. I don't think any of us, including you, play golf by the odds. This isn't texas hold em. We just go out there and do the best we can. [/quote]

This doesn't make any sense. The odds I have quoted are irrelevant to how you play a match. They're important in the end result. However, we all play odds. The same way I'm going to bet more with pocket aces. I like my odds of hitting a 9 iron 130 yards much more than I like the odds of hitting my 5 iron 130 yards. I like my odds of punching back into the fairway when my ball is stuck behind a tree instead of the odds of blasting the ball through the tree.



[quote]This issue really isn't about a flaw in the handicap system or tournament system. It's more of a human character problem. I'm not accusing anyone of being a sore loser, we all dont like to lose. All I'm saying is don't put yourself in a situation that will make you look like one. Part of golf is giving the other player props for playing well. This topic can go both ways. It could also be a mid-handicapper complaining about how he should have received more strokes after getting his butt kicked by a single digit handicapper.
[/quote]

[b]This is just idiotic, let's attack the victim and ignore the cheater. It's the equivalent of when idiots say, "Don't blame the rapist little girl, you shouldn't have gotten drunk and worn a short skirt[/b]."
[/quote]

All i'm saying is that even in a net tournament, when a guy is on a hot streak like that, we can't just come to the conclusion that OP would have won the matchplay even if he wasn't giving 7 holes. I don't think we can come to any conclusion based on 13 holes whether the guy was lying about his handicap or not. You are correct regarding odds on how to hit certain shots, but I look at it more as risk assessment, but I don't think odds really matter like having pocket aces. In poker there are odds because there is a specific equation and limitation to possibilities (52 cards in a deck, 4 different suits, 4 of each number, etc ,etc). I'm not standing on the tee box thinking what are the odds of hitting a snap hook into OB.
The best score I ever shot was a 2-under 70, when I was a 7 back in 2007. I had 4 birdies, and 13 pars, got the double bogey on the 18th. I went 17 straight holes with par or better.
Is it a good reflection of my handicap?NO.
Do I care what the odds were? NO.
All I care is I was the in the zone, and I did it. If you played with me that day, you would have thought I'm a scratch golfer, or I'm hustling you.
The other side of the coin, I play a 5 now, and the worst score this year for me is 92. Is it a good reflection of my handicap? NO. Do I care what the odds are for shooting 17 over? NO. All I know is I played like absolute crap. If you were there that day, you would have thought I was a joke.

Eye2+, I don't think anyone here is defending the guy who shot +1. I think everyone understands that the chances of people playing 10 under their handicap doesn't happen all the time. I think what people are saying here is that we shouldn't jump into any conclusions like calling the OP the victim and the other guy a cheater. We don't have enough information to determine. Did the guy hit 11/13 greens, or did his ball hit a cart-path and come back into play when it should have been OB. What if the OP was -4 through 13 holes, would he even be complaining about that guy going +1 through 13? Or would the 12-handicapper be posting a topic here about how he got his a** handled by a scratch golfer and should have received more strokes. The guy who goes on a hot streak tomorrow might very well be you, and when it happens, don't you want people to say "hey good job", instead of being called a cheater.

[Club junkie]

If the guy was sandbagging why give the OP such a beating? If he wasn't sandbagging wouldn't you want to finish the round? It could have been your best yet.

[Kuz013]

Has the OP said what his score was at that point? since he was giving 7 shots then he is a 5 hdcp, and he got closed out 6&5 to a guy who was 1 over. OP couldnt have been playing all that well

[kellygreen]

[quote name='Sean2' timestamp='1381196177' post='7968027']
[quote name='kellygreen' timestamp='1381195852' post='7968007']
[quote name='Sean2' timestamp='1381189299' post='7967403']
I now feel bad for the guy who was suspended from our club a couple of years ago. He was a mid-handicapper who always shot well below his HI in tournaments. I now know he was just having a good day during tournaments.
[/quote]

Rare events happen. They don't keep happening to the same person.

As the old saying goes, "[i]Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern. Four times is a character flaw."[/i]
[/quote]

Thing is Kelly, at our course during a tournament our fast greens become VERY fast, difficult pins become VERY difficult (not to mention the pressure of tournament golf). NO one, not ever our best golfers, crack their handicap. When I read that someone in a tournament, under tough course conditions and tournament pressure, beats their HI by ten strokes, I become a bit dubious.
[/quote]

Understand.

Like I said, rare events are rare...and sometimes you're the unlucky guy standing next to the tree when lightning strikes.

But it doesn't strike twice in the same spot. If he does it once, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, and believe that he just had one of those magical days. If it happens [i]again[/i], then you have a sandbagger.

Yes, I shot a 75 as 13 index. But it was many years----and I was a much better player---before I shot that score [b][i]again[/i][/b].

[HoffTTM]

The best question is how does a guy play enough terrible golf in Ireland to go from a 9 to a 12 in a year? The fastest way to do that was if he was a 9.4 last year and then went up to 11.5. That is at a [b]bare minimum 21 bad competition rounds without a single good round inbetween[/b]

Sounds very very dodgy.

[mshills]

[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?

[TripleSingle]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

[b]Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?[/b]
[/quote]

Odds dont matter in golf. At the end of the day, our scores will be a [b]bell curve[/b] in relation to our handicap. Which is why 13 holes is too small of a sample size to determine anything. What are the odds that you will sink a 5-foot, left-to-right birdie putt? As far as I'm concerned, its 1:1; you either make it or you dont. I think people can misunderstand odds and probabilities and statistics. Its different than a coin flip or poker because the coin and cards are an [b]independent variable[/b]. They have nothing to do with what has happened because they are based on specific mathematical equations to determine WHAT CAN HAPPEN. The odds of a hole-in-one are nothing but statistics of WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. It has nothing to do with what can happen. Which means the odds of an hole-in-one changes every year based on the number of aces that have been tracked. What is the probability of you pulling out an ace in a deck of cards? 4/52 (or 1/13). This number doesn't change regardless. What's are the odds of getting head when flipping a coin? It's 1:1. After 13 flips you got all tails. Does that mean you will get tail 18 times just because you got tail on the first 13?
I've played for 2 decades and I've never gotten a hole-in-one. My friend's uncle has played for 28 years and has 57 hole-in-ones. That's basically 2 a year. What are the odds?

[vtnerf]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?
[/quote]

He wasn't 10 shots better in the 13.
Actually, you can't tell how much better he was because the OP doesn't give us the car to tell where the 12's strokes would fall. Given the info we are given, there were 2 of the 7 hardest holes left (He got 5 strokes in the 13.) In the other 3 remaining, they could have the #9 & #11 handicap holes, meaning a "typical" stroke hole for the 12.
Odds are straight for a set number. You can't average a rate, which only playing 13 holes sorta is. It's a partial amount. And not all 18 holes are the same....strokes don't fall on the same holes on every course.

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='jihunyu' timestamp='1381242370' post='7969969']
[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

[b]Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?[/b]
[/quote]

Odds dont matter in golf. At the end of the day, our scores will be a [b]bell curve[/b] in relation to our handicap. Which is why 13 holes is too small of a sample size to determine anything. What are the odds that you will sink a 5-foot, left-to-right birdie putt? As far as I'm concerned, its 1:1; you either make it or you dont. I think people can misunderstand odds and probabilities and statistics. Its different than a coin flip or poker because the coin and cards are an [b]independent variable[/b]. They have nothing to do with what has happened because they are based on specific mathematical equations to determine WHAT CAN HAPPEN. The odds of a hole-in-one are nothing but statistics of WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. It has nothing to do with what can happen. Which means the odds of an hole-in-one changes every year based on the number of aces that have been tracked. What is the probability of you pulling out an ace in a deck of cards? 4/52 (or 1/13). This number doesn't change regardless. What's are the odds of getting head when flipping a coin? It's 1:1. After 13 flips you got all tails. Does that mean you will get tail 18 times just because you got tail on the first 13?
I've played for 2 decades and I've never gotten a hole-in-one. My friend's uncle has played for 28 years and has 57 hole-in-ones. That's basically 2 a year. What are the odds?
[/quote]

That's a lot of typing to argue your opinion is more valid than math and science.

[arnold palmtree]

[quote name='vtnerf' timestamp='1381242624' post='7969993']
[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?
[/quote]

He wasn't 10 shots better in the 13.
Actually, you can't tell how much better he was because the OP doesn't give us the car to tell where the 12's strokes would fall. Given the info we are given, there were 2 of the 7 hardest holes left (He got 5 strokes in the 13.) In the other 3 remaining, they could have the #9 & #11 handicap holes, meaning a "typical" stroke hole for the 12.
Odds are straight for a set number. You can't average a rate, which only playing 13 holes sorta is. It's a partial amount. And not all 18 holes are the same....strokes don't fall on the same holes on every course.
[/quote]

So you can't give me the odds?

[Ty_Webb]

[quote name='kellygreen' timestamp='1381233053' post='7969425']

Understand.

Like I said, rare events are rare...and sometimes you're the unlucky guy standing next to the tree when lightning strikes.

But it doesn't strike twice in the same spot. If he does it once, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, and believe that he just had one of those magical days. If it happens [i]again[/i], then you have a sandbagger.

Yes, I shot a 75 as 13 index. But it was many years----and I was a much better player---before I shot that score [b][i]again[/i][/b].
[/quote]

Actually, the reason that you think it doesn't happen twice is because the second time you are referring to a specific person - namely the person that did it the first time. But once he's done it the first time, he's no more or less likely to shoot that again than the next guy (if anything he's more likely to since he's done it before). Odds don't have memory. If you toss a fair coin and get 10 heads in a row, the odds of the next toss being a head are still 50/50. The odds of lightning striking the tree next to you are the same whether a tree next to you was struck a year ago or not. You say it doesn't happen twice because you know intuitively that the odds are hugely against it happening in the first place. Which is the case here.

[TripleSingle]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381243484' post='7970081']
[quote name='jihunyu' timestamp='1381242370' post='7969969']
[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
DTV, I have used a ton of sarcasm for sure. But I didn't call anyone any names and really didn't use the sarcasm until I was called dense and a few other things. My point is, the guy was a 9 at one time, so he could obviously play some. It is not out of the realm to go from a 9 to a 12, happens all the time. The guy only played 13 holes, not 18. There is no guarantee the guy is going to finish the day one over par.

You are correct, there is a ton of information missing. All the same though, in my opinion and many others a guy that was once a 9 handicap could very easily shoot +1 for 13 holes on an average course, I am not talking a Pete Dye bring you to your knees course.

Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.

Again, a guy that was a 9 shooting +1 for 13 is not a real big stretch to me, tournament or not. Could he be bagging a couple of strokes, sure maybe we don't know. If you look at all the big national Am tournaments that are so popular now, there are a lot of low net scores shot to win them, and I mean way low.
[/quote]

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

[b]Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?[/b]
[/quote]

Odds dont matter in golf. At the end of the day, our scores will be a [b]bell curve[/b] in relation to our handicap. Which is why 13 holes is too small of a sample size to determine anything. What are the odds that you will sink a 5-foot, left-to-right birdie putt? As far as I'm concerned, its 1:1; you either make it or you dont. I think people can misunderstand odds and probabilities and statistics. Its different than a coin flip or poker because the coin and cards are an [b]independent variable[/b]. They have nothing to do with what has happened because they are based on specific mathematical equations to determine WHAT CAN HAPPEN. The odds of a hole-in-one are nothing but statistics of WHAT HAS ALREADY HAPPENED. It has nothing to do with what can happen. Which means the odds of an hole-in-one changes every year based on the number of aces that have been tracked. What is the probability of you pulling out an ace in a deck of cards? 4/52 (or 1/13). This number doesn't change regardless. What's are the odds of getting head when flipping a coin? It's 1:1. After 13 flips you got all tails. Does that mean you will get tail 18 times just because you got tail on the first 13?
I've played for 2 decades and I've never gotten a hole-in-one. My friend's uncle has played for 28 years and has 57 hole-in-ones. That's basically 2 a year. What are the odds?
[/quote]

That's a lot of typing to argue your opinion is more valid than math and science.
[/quote]

Since when did I argue that my opinion is more valid than math and science? All I'm saying is in golf odds dont matter regardless of the math and science. Some of us might play golf for the rest of our lives and never get an ace. There might be some people who get an ace on their first outing. Are 13 holes really enough to label someone a victim or a cheater? Isn't that why all of us play golf, it's the thrill of the streaks, whether you're a single handicapper who is on a roll shooting -3 on the first 9, or the guy who is struggling to break 100 who all of sudden has a 7-hole bogey streak.

[kellygreen]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?
[/quote]

Again, what you fail to understand is that IT DOESN"T MATTER.

It doesn't matter unless you are trying to PREDICT whether or not someone will shoot a round that beats their handicap by 10 strokes over 13 holes. The odds of NO assistance (other than circumstantial evidence) in determining whether a round that has been shot was shot by someone with a legitimate handicap.

Let me try putting it this way.

Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia (ALL) is a relatively rare form of cancer of the blood cells that fight off infection, that strikes about 3-4 out of every 100,000 children each year.

You're a pediatrician, and a mom shows up with her 6 year old. She's been running a fever for a week, nauseous, achy, lethargic. The blood cells that fight off infection are markedly elevated in her blood stream. Mom asks you if this means that her daughter has leukemia. [b][i]The answer (predictive) is that odds are that she does not. [/i][/b]Rare things occur rarely. Common things are common. When you hear hoofbeats you look for horses, not zebras. Chances are that she has some sort of viral infection...and not leukemia.

That is an appropriate use of odds (incidence) data.

What you are trying to do is more like this.

You are pediatrician. Mom shows up with her 6 year old looking for a second opinion. She's been to see her own pediatrician, and (unfortunately) the little girl has been diagnosed with ALL. You then turn to the mother and insist that the diagnosis has to be wrong, because "[i]leukemia is rare in children" [/i]

That is an INAPPROPRIATE use off odds data. You cannot (responsibly) tell this woman that the diagnosis of leukemia was incorrect, simply because it is a rare disease. You have to take a look at the individual circumstances, and what went into making the diagnosis before drawing any conclusions. Unless you want to do that family a HUGE disservice, and expose yourself to a nasty malpractice suit.

Likewise, it is irresponsible to accuse someone of cheating because in an ISOLATED (partial) round of golf, they shot well below their handicap. Just like fact that leukemia is rare didn't prevent (sadly) this woman's child from developing the disease....the fact that such low rounds are rare by amateur golfers doesn't mean that you aren't in the presence of someone how just happened to have done it.

Because sometimes you hoofbeats are, in fact, coming from zebras.....

[mukster]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381199551' post='7968357']
[quote name='Hstead' timestamp='1381197609' post='7968171']
Eye2+ acts as if I am insane and there is no way this guy could have accomplished such an impossible feat. On the other thread, there are literally dozen of guys stating their handicaps and their career low rounds, which were 18 holes and not 13, and a bunch of them have bettered their handicaps by 10 or more. Every single Sunday if you want to win at our club in the bucket ball, you better shoot at least 4 under your handicap and often it takes 7 to win it, and that is every Sunday. That is also 18 holes and not 13. How many times have you had it really going for 9 or 10 holes and maybe even be under par and then come back to earth before the round ends? That is golf. Golf happens all of the time.
[/quote]

[b]This is why you earned your dense label.[/b] I've clearly stated that there was a 0.002% chance it could have happened. Yet, you're still trying to argue as if i'm saying that in the history of the world this has never happened.

I've given you legitimate data from the USGA who has access to scores of millions of rounds. If you disagree with their data, please feel free to provide actual evidence that they are wrong.
[/quote]

I think there is a 150 post minimum before one can start name calling and being a smart a**

[kellygreen]

[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381243484' post='7970081']

That's a lot of typing to argue your opinion is more valid than math and science.
[/quote]

It's a lot of typign because---like me---he's trying to explain to you why your APPLICATION and INTERPRETATION of the math is flawed.

[i][b]His argument is entirely correct. [/b][/i]

Odds data describe (once again) how POPULATIONS behave, and only have value where an INDIVIDUAL is concerned in a predictive capacity. You aren't using it that way. You're trying to use it in an interpretative or diagnostic capacity...and you can't DO that the way you are trying to do it.

The fact that it is a rare event makes it UNLIKELY that it was a legitimate round shot by someone with a legitimate handicap. But the fact that it is unlikely is NOT proof that it was (in essence) IMPOSSIBLE, as you are trying to argue. Because people DO shoot these low rounds...and if you deal with a large enough pool of people (like this forum) you will enounter MANY people who have done it.

There's a truism in medicine that applies to the error in thinking you are making: [i]You'll miss 100% of the diagnoses you never think of.[/i] IOW, you don't discard a potential dianogsis until the data you have makes it IMPOSSIBLE, not IMPROBABLE. Because improbable things do happen...and the longer you take care of patients, the more likely you are to be confronted with such an event.

...and if you don't consider that possibility, you will overlook it when it happens.

[nbg352]

[quote name='kellygreen' timestamp='1381244266' post='7970153']
[quote name='Eye2+' timestamp='1381240432' post='7969817']
[quote name='mshills' timestamp='1381239711' post='7969751']

Nailed it right there. Insufficient information to know what happened and to draw a conclusion. The two major problems I see are that:

- Too few holes. If he was +1 thru 17, then OK, I get suspicious. But the high odds against a player going ten strokes deep versus his cap is for eighteen holes, not thirteen holes. Golf is not played over thirteen holes any more than it is played on the driving range, or there would be a hell of a lot more Tour-caliber players out there.

- Not enough history. Where a bagger becomes obvious is a regular pattern of going deep versus his cap in tournament play. This one looks a little funny and certainly justifies paying close attention to his prior and future score postings, but to call someone a cheat is, IMO, serious business. You'd better be [u]sure[/u]. In this case, all we have is 13 holes, not even one single full round of golf. No way would I call someone a cheat based on that.
[/quote]

Would you mind giving us the odds on beating your handicap by 10 strokes in 13 holes?
[/quote]

Again, what you fail to understand is that IT DOESN"T MATTER.

It doesn't matter unless you are trying to PREDICT whether or not someone will shoot a round that beats their handicap by 10 strokes over 13 holes. The odds of NO assistance (other than circumstantial evidence) in determining whether a round that has been shot was shot by someone with a legitimate handicap.

Let me try putting it this way.

Acute Lymphocytic Leukemia (ALL) is a relatively rare form of cancer of the blood cells that fight off infection, that strikes about 3-4 out of every 100,000 children each year.

You're a pediatrician, and a mom shows up with her 6 year old. She's been running a fever for a week, nauseous, achy, lethargic. The blood cells that fight off infection are markedly elevated in her blood stream. Mom asks you if this means that her daughter has leukemia. [b][i]The answer (predictive) is that odds are that she does not. [/i][/b]Rare things occur rarely. Common things are common. When you hear hoofbeats you look for horses, not zebras. Chances are that she has some sort of viral infection...and not leukemia.

That is an appropriate use of odds (incidence) data.

What you are trying to do is more like this.

You are pediatrician. Mom shows up with her 6 year old looking for a second opinion. She's been to see her own pediatrician, and (unfortunately) the little girl has been diagnosed with ALL. You then turn to the mother and insist that the diagnosis has to be wrong, because "[i]leukemia is rare in children" [/i]

That is an INAPPROPRIATE use off odds data. You cannot (responsibly) tell this woman that the diagnosis of leukemia was incorrect, simply because it is a rare disease. You have to take a look at the individual circumstances, and what went into making the diagnosis before drawing any conclusions. Unless you want to do that family a HUGE disservice, and expose yourself to a nasty malpractice suit.

Likewise, it is irresponsible to accuse someone of cheating because in an ISOLATED (partial) round of golf, they shot well below their handicap. Just like fact that leukemia is rare didn't prevent (sadly) this woman's child from developing the disease....the fact that such low rounds are rare by amateur golfers doesn't mean that you aren't in the presence of someone how just happened to have done it.

Because sometimes you hoofbeats are, in fact, coming from zebras.....
[/quote]
You're such a troll........
I love it!