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One of the Craziest Rounds of Golf I've Ever Played


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If not the craziest. For a little background, my handicap is in the 8-10 range and has for years.

Here is what happened yesterday. After 6 holes, I am 2 under par with 4 birdies. I proceed to play the next 12 holes in 20 over par! And only 1 penalty stroke was involved. Went from striping the ball to hitting it all over the place, chunking chip shots, and had 29 putts in those 12 holes. After having 9 putts in the first 6 holes. Did not par one hole all day. Of course that's because I made birdie putts from 5 and 10 feet with the other 2 being in the 30 foot range.

 

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I believe that golf is random chance. What I mean is that any shot and any score can come out at any time depending on your skill level. I once wrote a program to randomly select scores on holes that I had recorded on my course over a number of years and generate random 18 hole scores. The randomly generated 9 and 18 hole scores matched up pretty well with my actual scores. I also was able to calculate my expected low score over x number of games. I don't remember exactly but for me to shoot par for 18 holes which I have never done I would need to play for 10,000 rounds or something like that. I don't have the program anymore or the data that I generated so I am going on my fuzzy memory.

Anyway a large part of how anyone scores on any particular day comes down to luck or random chance more then anything else.

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Play long enough you'll have some crazy rounds. A number of years ago i remember starting birdie-birdie and finishing with an 89. And this was when i was like a 2.5 index.

I have another round i have posted a lot about here over the years where i did not make a par until the 15th hole and shot 74

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Once started albatross, birdie, quad. So even after the first three. Shot even that day. Hit it great, but couldn't keep anything going. Either birdie or bogey on almost every hole. Pretty sure I carded 5 pars on the day. Needless to say, mentally exhausted after that round.

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I've actually started a birdie pool at my course. $1 per round to enter. First person to record a birdie on every hole on the course takes the pot. It has been fun watching some guys get all but one hole and then struggle to get one last hole birdied. Like a nemesis for some guys.

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Ping g430 LST 14.5* - Project X Smoke Black 70x
Ping g430 17* - Project X Smoke Black 6.5 or TM P70UDI 2 with same shaft
Ping i59 4-PW - DG AMT White X100
Callaway Jaws Raw Black 50*, 54*, 60*- DG TI S400
Odyssey O-Works Black Jailbird Mini w/ Stability Tour
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And you would be correct!

A famous mathematician, G.H. Hardy, actually wrote a paper describing a similar concept (G.H. Hardy, A mathematical theorem about golf, Math. Gaz. 29 (1945) p. 227.). Basically, on any shot a golfer has a probability, x, of hitting a great shot, and a probability, y, of hitting a terrible shot, leaving (1 - x - y) as the probability of hitting an ordinary shot. Another mathematician, G.L. Cohen, used that concept to derive formulas for the expected number of strokes on par 3, 4, and 5 holes (G.L. Cohen, On a theorem of G.H. Hardy concerning golf, Math. Gaz. 86 (2002) p. 120):

par 3 = 3/(1-y) - 2x/(1-y)^2 + x^2/(1-y)^3

par 4 = 4/(1-y) - 3x/(1-y)^2 + 2x^2/(1-y)^3 - x^3/(1-y)^4

par 5 = 5/(1-y) - 4x/(1-y)^2 + 3x^2/(1-y)^3 - 2x^3/(1-y)^4 + x^4/(1-y)^5

Here's a small part of the results:

                                           y

                   0.0                 0.1               0.2

     0.0 (3.0,4.0,5.0) (3.3,4.4,5.6) (3.8,5.0,6.3)

 x  0.1  (2.8,3.7,4.6)  (3.1,4.1,5.1)   (3.5,4.6,5.7)

     0.2 (2.6,3.5,4.3)  (2.9,3.8,4.7) (3.2,4.2,5.2)

 

Obviously, if a golfer hits nothing but ordinary shots (x = y = 0.0), the expected scores would be par on every hole (3.0,4.0,5.0). A golfer hitting 10% great shots and 20% bad shots (x = 0.1, y = 0.2) would expect the scores (3.5,4.6,5.7). On the other hand, for a golfer who hits 10% terrible shots but 20% great shots (y = 0.1, x = 0.2), then the expected scores would be (2.9,3.8,4.7).

Edit: Apologies for the poorly formatted table; attempting to use spaces to align the columns/rows doesn't seem to work. The row in bold corresponds to the probability of a terrible shot, y, and the column in bold corresponds to the probability of a great shot, x.

 

Edited by HiTrajLoSpin

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I've had many crazy rounds. Two of my most famous.

I was playing Carrol Valley in PA. My best round there to date was an 85. After 8 holes I was 1 under. I managed to take a 10 on #9 a par 5. I played the back nine at even par for 8 holes. I took a 7 on the last hole a par 3.

I played a round at Meadowbrook and had 13 pars, 2 birdies and shot an 86.

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I had a round a few weeks ago where I made my most birdies ever in a round (7). Of course that round also included two double bogeys and three bogeys for a smooth even par round.

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20 over in 12 after 2 under through 6 with 4 birdies is rough.

I had seven birdies one day and shot one under. I also hit 17 out of 18 greens and 13/14 fairways. I either made my birdie putt or I three putted. We were drinking quite heavily, and I have since discovered, I almost can't get too drunk to swing the golf club. However there is a fine line where I start putting horribly on short putts.

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  • 7 months later...
On 5/3/2020 at 7:34 AM, ChxDigLongBall said:

I've actually started a birdie pool at my course. $1 per round to enter. First person to record a birdie on every hole on the course takes the pot. It has been fun watching some guys get all but one hole and then struggle to get one last hole birdied. Like a nemesis for some guys.

I don't trust all the people at my course enough to implement this idea. I like it, though.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I can relate.

Played a nine hole course for a few years. Once when I was out for nine only I was 5 under after 4 holes. Shot 43.

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