Clubhouse Grille (*** NO LIV DISCUSSIONS ***) (*** NO POLITICS/RELIGION ***)

[Soloman1]

the world adaptive tournament was at a course near me in japan about 10 years ago, and i was asked by the course to do interpreting, since no one spoke english. it was a great experience. people from all over the world and all good sticks.

 

plus, long, long time ago

i can still remember

how that music used to make me smile…

 

oops wrong thing.

 

giving lessons to guys from a local va hospital. again, a rewarding experience.

 

oh, and i’m also bi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

lingual. 🙂

 

 

Edited July 9 by Soloman1

[RoverTiger]

1 hour ago, braincramp52 said:

I am definitely in the minority here. From the time I was about 12 years old on I had absolutely no interest in school. From the first time I pushed a broom in my brother's Ford dealership I knew I wanted to be a mechanic. I did that for 20 years. Friends and family always said I was a natural born salesman so I took them up on it and I never regretted a minute of it.  I loved sales so much I honestly feel like I never worked a day in my life. I was just never cut out for school. 

That's awesome. Some of the sharpest people I've ever known never set foot in a college classroom. The years I spent working in the parts departments of a couple of dealerships before becoming a 25 year old freshman gave me such a heightened appreciation for blue collar workers.

[mshills]

1 hour ago, RoverTiger said:

My wife (fluent in Spanish) feels the same way about trying to understand Cubans.

My father learned fluent Spanish when he lived in Venezuela. His Spanish is near native speaker level but he has a tough time with Cubano 🇨🇺 and a REALLY hard time with Puerto Rican 🇵🇷 dialects. 
 

I speak passable Russian, but I’m better at reading than speaking because I am so rusty. Have very basic Spanish and REALLY basic German. 
 

My grandfather was a pastor and had degrees in Classics. He was fluent in Greek, and good grasp of Latin. The last few years of his life he undertook to read The Odyssey in Greek. I have an affinity and propensity to learn languages, but my grandpa was on a whole different level. 

[aenemated]

A former Ms. ae was born and raised in Brazil. She'd speak Portuguese with her mom and I'd hear her on the phone and be like "Are yall fighting or something?" "No, why?" "You just sound mad!" 

 

That's a crazy language. 

[Soloman1]

6 minutes ago, aenemated said:

A former Ms. ae was born and raised in Brazil. She'd speak Portuguese with her mom and I'd hear her on the phone and be like "Are yall fighting or something?" "No, why?" "You just sound mad!" 

 

mandarin is the same. you’d swear people are about to go hands on after a minute. they’re literally yelling at each other.

 

but they’re just asking what kind of tea would you like.

[mshills]

1 hour ago, Double Mocha Man said:

@mshills... Just drove back from my afternoon cocktail at the Black Cat.  Caught a story on NPR on my radio about the guy who won last year's US Adaptive Open. Max was his name.  Very inspiring. He was in a ski accident in Idaho and is paralyzed from the waist down. He actually shot a record-setting 70 last year in that event. Got to hear him speak in the story, what a guy! And now, he has plans to go back to the same ski resort in Idaho and ski next winter.

I know of that guy. 
 

The cognitive impairment champ from last year, Korean guy, is a 100% player and should win the entire thing this year. Dude is really good. 

[mshills]

19 minutes ago, aenemated said:

A former Ms. ae was born and raised in Brazil. She'd speak Portuguese with her mom and I'd hear her on the phone and be like "Are yall fighting or something?" "No, why?" "You just sound mad!" 

 

That's a crazy language. 

The missus does not speak Tagalog or Bisayan (the two main dialects in the Philippines) but man oh man when her Cali (and Vegas and Houston and Atlanta) family get together…..man you think a fight is popping off right NOW! 😂 She can understand a little but cannot communicate.

[Double Mocha Man]

15 minutes ago, mshills said:

I know of that guy. 
 

The cognitive impairment champ from last year, Korean guy, is a 100% player and should win the entire thing this year. Dude is really good. 

 

Lot of categories.  And many crazy good scores.  Impressive.  Scores are in after Day 2 of 3.

https://golfweek.usatoday.com/lists/2024-us-adaptive-open-second-round-scores-updates-made-cut/

[mshills]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

Agree. I was just sitting here watching myself. And I thought “ boy I’m glad I haven’t whined about my driver woes anymore “.  I have all my digits. Two calves like Adonis ( Phil joke🤣) and two eyes .  What I need to lose is excuses.    
 

the guy with no legs , one half of a hand.  And what’s left of a hand taped to a club shot 72 today.  And he wasn’t thrilled.  Imagine his talent level if he had all his faculty’s.  The world is full of good players.  Amazing to see. And very humbling.  

Hey man, wanting to be better isn’t whining! That goes for two arm, one arm, or no arms.
 

And yeah, the man from Cameroon can golf his ball!

[Soloman1]

ai stuff

 

the hype

let's start with does it work?

no. all you see are edited examples, demos and fluffy projections of the future.

it's ai-washing. the intentional misleading of capabilities and limitations by companies.

they're lying about how they'll use it and when.

 

36% of s&p companies bleated about ai in yearly reports with nothing to back up their claims.

when the big players do it, the rest follow suit.

ai hype is pulling in massive investment dollars based on nothing.

the sec is already going after the fraudulent claims of ai capability by companies.

 

nvidea stock is up 80% this year based on it "ai" chips.

they're just multi die chips that can run algorithms much faster and with less energy requirement.

yes, there are some added processing that can be used specifically for large language.

it's just a super chip that will function well in hyper massive data centers - the real tech boom.

 

 

this is the gartner hype cycle graph for new technologies. it's self explanatory:

 

 

here is the dunning-kruger graph - confidence vs. competence:

 

 

 

 

notice anything?

 

all the top players started out saying that ai would assist people in their work, not replace people.

they went so far to say that ai would increase the number of jobs.

they were lying through their teeth.

 

they spent a few years monitoring every keyboard stroke and screen of developers, then the resultant coding. they mapped of how developers (and people in finance) made decisions by looking at what they looked at. that's not really ai, but just algorithms of a process. the decision tree based on the intelligence of humans.

 

after they got enough, they fired them. and also, they just don't have any real ways to use it beyond that. you don't need new development based on something that still doesn't exist.

 

i was wrong about the number of tech layoffs. i went back and checked and it's worse.

 

2022-160,000

2023-260,000

2024-270,000 (projection based on first half)

_______________

total 690,000 people lost their jobs

 

experienced, college educated (stem based) professionals with little to no hope of being hired in the tech field again. all that time, energy and cost of school and work down the drain.

 

the promise of ai borders on a hoax. but the promise of riches comes from promising it. hey, profits and stock prices are up.

never mind those 690,000 people, which is about the same population as denver, or seattle. or new orleans and orlando combined.

 

 

i like this quote from someone much more clever than i am.

 

"I want ai to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for ai to do art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes." -- - Joanna Maciejewska

-----

 

 

 

 

Edited July 10 by Soloman1

[braincramp52]

The wife's flowers are looking good. Bugs haven't ate them yet. 

[Soloman1]

[aenemated]

14 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

 

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

[BIG STU]

7 hours ago, Double Mocha Man said:

@mshills... Just drove back from my afternoon cocktail at the Black Cat.  Caught a story on NPR on my radio about the guy who won last year's US Adaptive Open. Max was his name.  Very inspiring. He was in a ski accident in Idaho and is paralyzed from the waist down. He actually shot a record-setting 70 last year in that event. Got to hear him speak in the story, what a guy! And now, he has plans to go back to the same ski resort in Idaho and ski next winter.

I saw it on the GC yes he was inspiring and one tough cookie

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, RoverTiger said:

That's awesome. Some of the sharpest people I've ever known never set foot in a college classroom. The years I spent working in the parts departments of a couple of dealerships before becoming a 25 year old freshman gave me such a heightened appreciation for blue collar workers.

The guy who was basically my racing mentor could not read or even sign his name. But he could build an engine and build a car. Was one heck of a diesel mechanic too. Funny thing was he could read a tape measure and a micrometer. He could also read a dial indicator. If he was degreeing a camshaft in you had to read him the cam card. Funny in the past I had others try to teach me to degree in a cam including a noted NASCAR engine builder. I could not grasp it. I learned from sitting there reading the degree card to him how to do it. Funny how the mind works. He told me he had to drop out of school early to work in a cotton mill to help support the family after his Dad died. 

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, mshills said:

My father learned fluent Spanish when he lived in Venezuela. His Spanish is near native speaker level but he has a tough time with Cubano 🇨🇺 and a REALLY hard time with Puerto Rican 🇵🇷 dialects. 
 

I speak passable Russian, but I’m better at reading than speaking because I am so rusty. Have very basic Spanish and REALLY basic German. 
 

My grandfather was a pastor and had degrees in Classics. He was fluent in Greek, and good grasp of Latin. The last few years of his life he undertook to read The Odyssey in Greek. I have an affinity and propensity to learn languages, but my grandpa was on a whole different level. 

Ah the Iliad and the Odyssey by Homer the blind poet. I actually read both translated in English of course. It was not a school assignment either. I bought the 2 books at a used Book Store while waiting for a load in the Heavy Haul trucking days.

A lot of great old school Pastors were great in Greek and Latin since the Bible as we know it was translated from mostly Greek and Latin. From what I have heard they do not teach either in Seminary any more

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, aenemated said:

A former Ms. ae was born and raised in Brazil. She'd speak Portuguese with her mom and I'd hear her on the phone and be like "Are yall fighting or something?" "No, why?" "You just sound mad!" 

 

That's a crazy language. 

Was up at the steel mill one day. They have a procedure they go by depending on the type of steel you have. They do the call outs on the CB radio. Some companies are what I call fly by night outfits. They cannot keep drivers and will hire them and send them. A lot of times new drivers will walk up to your truck and ask. I had a driver do that one day problem is a lot of them do not speak or understand English. This guy was speaking funny to me. I could pick up some Spanish but was not sure. Had another driver from another company I knew well come up "What's Happening Stuey"? I told him I was trying to help this guy out and could not understand zilch. He listened for a second and they started communicating. I was confused and asked my friend what Spanish Dialect they were speaking? None he told me Portuguese. I was like WTF? how do you know that? I had always assumed he was African American. Well he was 1/2 his Mom's side his Dad was Portuguese. 

I do not want to condemn here but the language barrier got to be a problem there because of procedure. The Mill finally had to put out a letter. Said all drivers had to understand instructions in English and have a CB radio. If not the load would be rejected on the spot no matter who the shipper was. One company tried to sue but it was thrown out among other things OSHA law. You had dispatch channel on the radio and the yard channel. The yard channel was imperative on safety because you had to stage there and they actually had trains moving in there plus heavy equipment including huge walking cranes. Also drivers spotted for each other scrap steel loads especially in a 48 foot dump are noted for tipping. Most of us regulars watched out for each other when dumping. If you hear like "leaning" drop it down fast and re position or get the crane to shuttle some off. 

I asked a Transport Police Officer one day about the language thing. I know to obtain a commercial license it said one MUST understand and comprehend the English language. He told me at the time that provision had been done away with for some time. I asked him what if you stop a non English speaking person for a roadside inspection. He told me with a straight face they would have to get an interpreter. I said Ok. In my mind I was thinking BS this jackleg state is not doing that you will just let them go. It was basically confirmed about a month later. My company hired a BI-Lingual driver and he told me if he was stopped he pulled that gag and they always let him go. He was there when I got hurt but they caught on to him because they knew he hauled to the steel mill and somehow found out about the policy there. One of the other drivers there told me they stopped him one day and threatened to lock him up for anything and then he spoke perfect English. 

[BIG STU]

6 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

ai stuff

 

the hype

let's start with does it work?

no. all you see are edited examples, demos and fluffy projections of the future.

it's ai-washing. the intentional misleading of capabilities and limitations by companies.

they're lying about how they'll use it and when.

 

36% of s&p companies bleated about ai in yearly reports with nothing to back up their claims.

when the big players do it, the rest follow suit.

ai hype is pulling in massive investment dollars based on nothing.

the sec is already going after the fraudulent claims of ai capability by companies.

 

nvidea stock is up 80% this year based on it "ai" chips.

they're just multi die chips that can run algorithms much faster and with less energy requirement.

yes, there are some added processing that can be used specifically for large language.

it's just a super chip that will function well in hyper massive data centers - the real tech boom.

 

 

this is the gartner hype cycle graph for new technologies. it's self explanatory:

 

 

here is the dunning-kruger graph - confidence vs. competence:

 

 

 

 

notice anything?

 

all the top players started out saying that ai would assist people in their work, not replace people.

they went so far to say that ai would increase the number of jobs.

they were lying through their teeth.

 

they spent a few years monitoring every keyboard stroke and screen of developers, then the resultant coding. they mapped of how developers (and people in finance) made decisions by looking at what they looked at. that's not really ai, but just algorithms of a process. the decision tree based on the intelligence of humans.

 

after they got enough, they fired them. and also, they just don't have any real ways to use it beyond that. you don't need new development based on something that still doesn't exist.

 

i was wrong about the number of tech layoffs. i went back and checked and it's worse.

 

2022-160,000

2023-260,000

2024-270,000 (projection based on first half)

_______________

total 690,000 people lost their jobs

 

experienced, college educated (stem based) professionals with little to no hope of being hired in the tech field again. all that time, energy and cost of school and work down the drain.

 

the promise of ai borders on a hoax. but the promise of riches comes from promising it. hey, profits and stock prices are up.

never mind those 690,000 people, which is about the same population as denver, or seattle. or new orleans and orlando combined.

 

 

i like this quote from someone much more clever than i am.

 

"I want ai to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for ai to do art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes." -- - Joanna Maciejewska

-----

 

 

 

 

I know here they have a local 1 hr morning show. They always have trivia the last 15 minutes. Now 2 of the hosts are ex local DJs from here. The guy giving the trivia questions is a young guy and uses AI. there has been quite a few times both DJs have caught something music or movie wise that AI has gotten wrong and they have proved it using Wiki or Google. 

[dashanks]

Who is gonna buy all the goods and services produced by AI if nobody has jobs?

[bscinstnct]

9 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

ai stuff

 

the hype

let's start with does it work?

no. all you see are edited examples, demos and fluffy projections of the future.

it's ai-washing. the intentional misleading of capabilities and limitations by companies.

they're lying about how they'll use it and when.

 

36% of s&p companies bleated about ai in yearly reports with nothing to back up their claims.

when the big players do it, the rest follow suit.

ai hype is pulling in massive investment dollars based on nothing.

the sec is already going after the fraudulent claims of ai capability by companies.

 

nvidea stock is up 80% this year based on it "ai" chips.

they're just multi die chips that can run algorithms much faster and with less energy requirement.

yes, there are some added processing that can be used specifically for large language.

it's just a super chip that will function well in hyper massive data centers - the real tech boom.

 

 

this is the gartner hype cycle graph for new technologies. it's self explanatory:

 

 

here is the dunning-kruger graph - confidence vs. competence:

 

 

 

 

notice anything?

 

all the top players started out saying that ai would assist people in their work, not replace people.

they went so far to say that ai would increase the number of jobs.

they were lying through their teeth.

 

they spent a few years monitoring every keyboard stroke and screen of developers, then the resultant coding. they mapped of how developers (and people in finance) made decisions by looking at what they looked at. that's not really ai, but just algorithms of a process. the decision tree based on the intelligence of humans.

 

after they got enough, they fired them. and also, they just don't have any real ways to use it beyond that. you don't need new development based on something that still doesn't exist.

 

i was wrong about the number of tech layoffs. i went back and checked and it's worse.

 

2022-160,000

2023-260,000

2024-270,000 (projection based on first half)

_______________

total 690,000 people lost their jobs

 

experienced, college educated (stem based) professionals with little to no hope of being hired in the tech field again. all that time, energy and cost of school and work down the drain.

 

the promise of ai borders on a hoax. but the promise of riches comes from promising it. hey, profits and stock prices are up.

never mind those 690,000 people, which is about the same population as denver, or seattle. or new orleans and orlando combined.

 

 

i like this quote from someone much more clever than i am.

 

"I want ai to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for ai to do art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes." -- - Joanna Maciejewska

-----

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, where people, myself included, get confused is AI vs ML (machine learning)

 

ML has been in practice for some time and can be considered “AI” even though it’s not what some folks think of as far as a truly autonomous thinking robot.

 

But ML does exactly what you said, process massive data into improved processes, learning from itself/the work it’s doing, it can be very specific but yield high productivity. 

Now with the new chips you referenced, the amount of data and speed is enormous. 
 

And it’s definitely contributed to tech layoffs. But what has equally contributed to the layoffs is the liquidity fueled, massive over hiring in 2021/22 in the sector. 
 

I think things will get weird in the future. People becoming more like machines and machines becoming more like people. 
 

 

Edited July 10 by bscinstnct

[braincramp52]

37 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

Yes, where people, myself included, get confused is AI vs ML (machine learning)

 

ML has been in practice for some time and can be considered “AI” even though it’s not what some folks think of as far as a truly autonomous thinking robot.

 

But ML does exactly what you said, process massive data into improved processes, learning from itself/the work it’s doing, it can be very specific but yield high productivity. 

Now with the new chips you referenced, the amount of data and speed is enormous. 
 

And it’s definitely contributed to tech layoffs. But what has equally contributed to the layoffs is the liquidity fueled, massive over hiring in 2021/22 in the sector. 
 

I think things will get weird in the future. People becoming more like machines and machines becoming more like people. 
 

 

Glad I'm gettin' old.

[Soloman1]

@bscinstnct: yeah, the over hiring was fueled by the hype of ai, that everyone has to get in the game.

 

of course, investors can still ride the wave to the summit of mt. stupid, then get out. 😉

 

[bscinstnct]

10 minutes ago, Soloman1 said:

@bscinstnct: yeah, the over hiring was fueled by the hype of ai, that everyone has to get in the game.

 

of course, investors can still ride the wave to the summit of mt. stupid, then get out. 😉

 

 

In 21/22 I saw dozens of startups doing huge series A rounds, 25MM for tiny SaaS companies with barely a product they “sold” to a Fortune 500 or 2 but was really a test project. 
 

100MM+ later series for companies nowhere near a semblance of profitability. 
 

These companies were hiring everyone who could chew gum and paying easily 1.5x what they should have but had to pay, you give him a manager a hiring budget and they’re going to hire lol

 

Well….the chickens came home

Edited July 10 by bscinstnct

[Soloman1]

7 minutes ago, bscinstnct said:

 

In 21/22 I saw dozens of startups doing huge series A rounds, 25MM for tiny SaaS companies with barely a product they “sold” to a Fortune 500 or 2 but was really a test project. 
 

100MM+ later series for companies nowhere near a semblance of profitability. 
 

These companies were hiring everyone who could chew gum and paying easily 1.5x what they should have but had to pay, you give him a manager a hiring budget and they’re going to hire lol

 

Well….the chickens came home

 

the good thing is very few startups from the ai hype. less to unravel.

 

spot on about the chickens. check back later for the chicken and fish feast. we got bigger fish to fry than ai…

 

you see the fed notice to top 4 banks on derivatives?

 

i’m ready for a good conversation on the economy.

 

 

Edited July 10 by Soloman1

[bladehunter]

10 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

I see you both and raise you next Monday here. 98 degrees real temp with almost 50 % humidity.  Blank this weather.  It’s “ only “ 92 today.  With same humidity. 

[bladehunter]

2 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

 

the good thing is very few startups from the ai hype. less to unravel.

 

spot on about the chickens. check back later for the chicken and fish feast. we got bigger fish to fry than ai…

 

you see the fed notice to top 4 banks on derivatives?

 

i’m ready for a good conversation on the economy.

 

 

Let’s go !   The economy.  You know. The thing. The best it’s ever been.  ( largest eye roll ever ).  

[Petethreeput]

Just now, bladehunter said:

I see you both and raise you next Monday here. 98 degrees real temp with almost 50 % humidity.  Blank this weather.  It’s “ only “ 92 today.  With same humidity. 

you know you live in Hades when there is a mosquito forecast.

 

Back to this education thing.  I have two kids both out of the house.  I had one kid skip a grade and graduate from college at 22 on the 5 year program in large part due to the major and covid, and then my smarter kid decided college wasn't for him. College doesn't imply intelligence, college implies affordability and familial SES or resourcefulness.  What it means though, to me is life is a series of twists, turns, and intersections the kid with the degree gets more choices in regards to what might happen in the future, and the graduate degree gives even more options as they present themselves.

 

I believe over 50% of all kids have college degrees today, whereas in the 60's it was just 30%.  My kid knew he was taking the harder road.  He is doing great, but it took a little longer to get up and running.

 

Everyone chooses their path, and their success is their success whether its an exotic car or just hoping for good health.  Kids are funny and while we want to shed our knowledge, they have to learn for themselves, at least that is my experience. 

[Petethreeput]

33 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

Let’s go !   The economy.  You know. The thing. The best it’s ever been.  ( largest eye roll ever ).  

I truly believe the macro economy is good, in fact it is better than most countries on the globe, but it is 100% perspective.  For the majority of the folks the economy sucks.  Everything the fed is doing is geared toward slowing it down while simultaneously the US government is printing thousands of dollars per second which obviously spikes inflation.

 

We can't go into specifics, but the economy is rigged and if you aren't getting pulled up by the riggers you are being held down.  It is unsustainable in my opinion.  At what point will the 60% of the population who live paycheck to paycheck and don't have $1000 in their bank accounts realize the answer isn't to their problem is increasing deficit spending.  Warren Buffett said it best (paraphrased), when my taxable income percentage is less than my secretary's, we have a problem.  

[bladehunter]

10 minutes ago, Petethreeput said:

I truly believe the macro economy is good, in fact it is better than most countries on the globe, but it is 100% perspective.  For the majority of the folks the economy sucks.  Everything the fed is doing is geared toward slowing it down while simultaneously the US government is printing thousands of dollars per second which obviously spikes inflation.

 

We can't go into specifics, but the economy is rigged and if you aren't getting pulled up by the riggers you are being held down.  It is unsustainable in my opinion.  At what point will the 60% of the population who live paycheck to paycheck and don't have $1000 in their bank accounts realize the answer isn't to their problem is increasing deficit spending.  Warren Buffett said it best (paraphrased), when my taxable income percentage is less than my secretary's, we have a problem.  

At the end of the day though. Micro is all that matters.  To me.  But I do understand that a balance is best for more.  Or most.  But I don’t think the correct strategy is simply redistribution. In various forms we can’t say.  
 

getting corps out of the real estate business would go a long say. Cap their portfolios or something. It would cause a price crash.  But so what ?  Pay the loan you took out.  The idea of a home being an atm needs to stop.  So that most can then afford a home. A home should be a liability for upkeep.  Not a place to make money.  This is an unpopular opinion because so many have used this so much to gain wealth. But it’s being done off the backs of our kids.  It’s selfish.  Period.  I’ll give mine a spot to build a house.  But if I couldn’t do that , how on earth would a 20 something buy a home ?  🤣.  He’d sooner fly to the moon flapping his arms.   But  20 years ago I could.  And did.  My wife has a friend who built a new 4 bedrooom subdivision home for $110k. Small. But  nice.  In 2003… she was a secretary.  Single. And no parents money.  This is impossible now.  It’s all rentals.  And in my opinion it’s akin to antitrust violations…. They’ve built a market on artificial  demand with govt secured bad loans.   And made that market real by buying up all the supply in the meantime.  
 

I don’t see it self correcting. It’s going to get much worse if it’s not drastically redirected.  
 

Ive examined my books. And im having to try to clear 15,600 ish more a year to stay alive. Vs 2016i haven’t bought any major purchases.  Newest car is 2013. Paid for. Also have a paid for 2012.  So less expenses really.  I used to be a food snob.  Certain milk brand. Certain coffee. Soft paper towels. Etc.  Not anymore. I’ve learned what the cheapest tastes like.  And I go in the store with a cap. And I stop at the cap. No matter if we have all the list  or not.  I’ll triage what we can do with it.  I type that while taking a break from working in a shop that has a thermometer on the walll that right now says 86. It will see 90-92 by the end of the day.  I’ll use up 3 shirts.  And before dark I’ll go work in the field.  When it’s cooler.  An American who works that way shouldn’t have to pinch  Pennys when buying food.  
 

The profit margin working , isn’t there.  Taxes are up.  Fuel prices at the farm are a moving target.  It’s all moved to what I call the micro hustle. “ what will pay off today “.  So you now work on small fast jobs. To keep cash flowing.  Things you always turned down before.  All the while knowing that this is cooking the golden goose one bite at a time.  Because the longer you don’t do large projects , the harder it is to build that back up.  It’s this holding pattern of survival.  It’s what  I call it the “ chains of hope “.  Hope is ok at times.  For short periods.  But over long periods hope becomes a chain that weighs. Hope causes complacency. And must be combated with action.  . Roosevelt was wrong. Comparison isn’t the thief of joy.  Hope is.  Hope is an expectation if action  isn’t quickly following.    I’m tired of the hope weight.  I’m ready to see some drastic actions.  
 

and I know some eyes will roll. They’ll say “ you still pay to play golf “.  Sure.  Sanity has a price too.  Therapy comes in many forms.  And staying alive is the goal.  So that’s that.  

[Soloman1]

we can certainly talk about the fed. there aren’t enough bad words in the dictionary to describe it.

 

it’s one thing that is rarely, if ever, taught in school. if people knew where it came from, how it came about and how it operates, they’d understand too much. the language of the fed, finance, banking and economics is intentionally convoluted in a way to put the average person asleep and reaching for the remote.

 

if you’re old enough to remember the s&l crisis, the 2008 one should be no problem.

 

the banks did it again, because boom and bust is the goal.

 

the fed put out their q3 report that is tilted to the traditional rosy side.

 

bis (bank for international settlements), which handles all foreign transaction globally, was not so rosy and broached the topic of derivatives.

 

top 4 banks in us sold at least $186 trillion in otc derivatives, but the total worldwide isn’t known because it’s opaque. they are all off book. many are hidden overseas and the controller has no info on them in total.

 

the total known globally is more than double the gdp of the entire world.

 

even the ones we know about domestically are 6x all assets of the banks.

 

the fed is getting a little wiggly because the banks have no plan of how they would unravel the derivatives, if necessary. nothing. no idea, except the usual plan of having the fed bail them out. anyway, it’s a big problem and the fed is making the banks come plan to unravel them.

 

now, the usual response from economists and analysts will be that we always have these side bets, some up and some down, and there no likelihood of problems. the economy is great! sound familiar?

 

there is only one way to handle the us debt. well, you could cancel it, but that will never happen. the only way is to monetize it, which mean printing even more money.

 

they’re giving you a little rest now. but, when they start, which they will, inflation takes off like a bottle rocket. devaluing your paper, fiat money is the bedrock of the fed, which is owned and operated by the banks, who create it out of thin air.

 

small businesses account for 44% of the us gdp. small business is bigger than most countries. the last report on rents for april showed that 43% of small businesses who rent space could not pay their rent. almost as high as during the shutdown. let that sink in a minute.

 

consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, except for golf. 🙂

 

anyone got a good golf story?

 

aded for @bladehunter: the anit-trust laws were made to break up unions, not to protect consumers in any way. consumers are not mentioned anywhere in the law.

 

 

 

Edited July 10 by Soloman1