How Far Is This Hole Playing Today?

[ProV1Killa]

146 yard par 3 with the following conditions:

 

Temp = 52

Constant wind estimated = 18 - 20 MPH.

Wind gusts = about 25 - 30 MPH

 

The hole played directly into the constant wind.  When gusts kicked up it varied from a headwind to slightly quartering out of the right.  Trees line both sides creating a funnel so there is no way to get out of the wind.

 

What would estimate the carry adjustment at?

[tatertot]

No elevation change? Pin in the middle? Short is better than long?

 

I'm playing a 170 club.

 

 

[MattM97]

1.5-2 clubs depending on your gaping.

[ThinkingPlus]

Play it for 180 yards with a medium to high trajectory. 

[ProV1Killa]

18 minutes ago, tatertot said:

No elevation change? Pin in the middle? Short is better than long?

 

I'm playing a 170 club.

No elevation change and yardage was to the pin.  To be on the green I had to cover 142.

 

I had the same thought as you.  Played my 170 club, flighted it down a little, good contact, not right off the button but close enough I shouldn't have lost much if any distance. And I wasn't putting.

 

 

[ProV1Killa]

18 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

Play it for 180 yards with a medium to high trajectory

That might have made it.

[tatertot]

4 minutes ago, ProV1Killa said:

No elevation change and yardage was to the pin.  To be on the green I had to cover 142.

 

I had the same thought as you.  Played my 170 club, flighted it down a little, good contact, not right off the button but close enough I shouldn't have lost much if any distance. And I wasn't putting.

 

 

Caught a gust?

[ProV1Killa]

For reference, I hit my 170 club took some spin and height off, had good contact, and landed 8 paces off the apron and about 14 paces short of the pin that was at 146.

[ProV1Killa]

3 minutes ago, tatertot said:

Caught a gust?

Maybe a little, it didn't balloon but did the stall and drop thing.

 

If temp drops 20 I figure I loose a yard.  I wonder how linear that is?

[ThinkingPlus]

15 minutes ago, ProV1Killa said:

That might have made it.

For future reference, 20 MPH into adds 20% for a stock mid-flightish shot (1% per MPH). So that would be 146 + 0.2 * 146 = ~175. Add in 2.5 yards per 10 degrees F relative to your stock yardage temperature (I guessed 80 F) to add an additional 2.8 * 2.5 = ~7 yards.  That boosted the total to 182 yards. I chose a 180 club not knowing your trajectory and as a hedge to going long.  This is especially a concern if the 180 club was low lofted like 5 iron or a hybrid.

[Shilgy]

39 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

For future reference, 20 MPH into adds 20% for a stock mid-flightish shot (1% per MPH). So that would be 146 + 0.2 * 146 = ~175. Add in 2.5 yards per 10 degrees F relative to your stock yardage temperature (I guessed 80 F) to add an additional 2.8 * 2.5 = ~7 yards.  That boosted the total to 182 yards. I chose a 180 club not knowing your trajectory and as a hedge to going long.  This is especially a concern if the 180 club was low lofted like 5 iron or a hybrid.

I was about to post similar….my rule is always 2 yards for every 10° but I’m sure you’re correct.  
 

Hard to do that here in Phoenix.  The shot that’s an easy 8 in summer is a hard 7 or even stock 6 in winter.

 

And most do not take enough extra when into the wind.  In this scenario it’s likely three extra clubs with an easy swing to knock off some spin.

[No_Catchy_Nickname]

38 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

For future reference, 20 MPH into adds 20% for a stock mid-flightish shot (1% per MPH). So that would be 146 + 0.2 * 146 = ~175. Add in 2.5 yards per 10 degrees F relative to your stock yardage temperature (I guessed 80 F) to add an additional 2.8 * 2.5 = ~7 yards.  That boosted the total to 182 yards. I chose a 180 club not knowing your trajectory and as a hedge to going long.  This is especially a concern if the 180 club was low lofted like 5 iron or a hybrid.

 

While it was my understanding that there would be no math, that's the distance I'd be trying to hit.

 

 

[jvincent]

1 hour ago, ThinkingPlus said:

Play it for 180 yards with a medium to high trajectory. 

 

This was my vote as I had pretty much those same conditions this morning, hit the 170 club, and came up short.

[ProV1Killa]

14 minutes ago, jvincent said:

This was my vote as I had pretty much those same conditions this morning, hit the 170 club, and came up short.

I don't feel so lonely anymore.

 

Funny side note, I coach our local high school team and was playing with our #2, #3, and one of our 2 freshmen girls.  None of the guys covered, but the 5'2" girl stepped up, hit driver and ended up pin high on the apron.  Loved it, the cockiness in her step for the next three holes was priceless.

[ThinkingPlus]

37 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

I was about to post similar….my rule is always 2 yards for every 10° but I’m sure you’re correct.  
 

Hard to do that here in Phoenix.  The shot that’s an easy 8 in summer is a hard 7 or even stock 6 in winter.

 

And most do not take enough extra when into the wind.  In this scenario it’s likely three extra clubs with an easy swing to knock off some spin.

It could be 2 or 2.5. Not a huge diff and typically a minor adjustment most of the time.

[ThinkingPlus]

34 minutes ago, No_Catchy_Nickname said:

 

While it was my understanding that there would be no math, that's the distance I'd be trying to hit.

 

 

There is always math.

[TiScape]

1 hour ago, ThinkingPlus said:

For future reference, 20 MPH into adds 20% for a stock mid-flightish shot (1% per MPH). So that would be 146 + 0.2 * 146 = ~175. Add in 2.5 yards per 10 degrees F relative to your stock yardage temperature (I guessed 80 F) to add an additional 2.8 * 2.5 = ~7 yards.  That boosted the total to 182 yards. I chose a 180 club not knowing your trajectory and as a hedge to going long.  This is especially a concern if the 180 club was low lofted like 5 iron or a hybrid.

When you realize that you take golf a lot less seriously than some here.
 

🤣

[ThinkingPlus]

BTW, additional situations to keep in mind. If the club you are hitting goes very high (think wedges and short irons), you need to add yardage (5 or 10 yards at least). When the wind goes above 15 MPH, start flighting shots lower. Once wind is that high the effective impact to distance gets a little non-linear.

 

If the shot is downwind, you will get half as much help as a hurting wind hurts. If you have a quarting wind into, then the impact will be ~70% of the direct into wind calculation. I play 50% impact for side wind, but that somewhat depends on shot shape.

[ThinkingPlus]

2 minutes ago, TiScape said:

When you realize that you take golf a lot less seriously than some here.
 

🤣

It's casual math. Just like breathing...

[TiScape]

Just now, ThinkingPlus said:

It's casual math. Just like breathing...

To you 😉 

[Jayjay_theweim_guy]

2 hours ago, ProV1Killa said:

146 yard par 3 with the following conditions:

 

Temp = 52

Constant wind estimated = 18 - 20 MPH.

Wind gusts = about 25 - 30 MPH

 

The hole played directly into the constant wind.  When gusts kicked up it varied from a headwind to slightly quartering out of the right.  Trees line both sides creating a funnel so there is no way to get out of the wind.

 

What would estimate the carry adjustment at?

 

1% per 1 mph headwind is what I use.  Quartering, still means 70% ish of it.  Plus with the slightly colder weather, I'd round up.  So, anywhere from a full 130% of the number to 120%.  Or 191-ish to 175.

 

I'd pick 125% or 185, and just hope it gets on the green.  You are a high launch and spin player though, so your ball might get up where it's really blowing though.  Maybe my 185-190 club, 3/4-feel swing and really try to not put a bunch of spin on it.

 

[b.mattay]

Depends where the trouble is.

If trouble is long, I'm hitting my stock 180 club with a bit of medium, trappy-ish draw, so probably a 180-185 ish shot. 

If trouble is short, I'm taking my 195 club and hitting it 180. 

 

To anyone who might comment that I picked two 180 shots...the second option goes much farther into the wind because the spin rate is approximately 5000-5300 rpm rather than approximately 7000-7300 rpm. 

Edited October 16, 2023 by b.mattay

[No_Catchy_Nickname]

1 hour ago, ThinkingPlus said:

There is always math.

 

Indeed. Though I hate to admit it, my old primary school teacher was right.

[Shilgy]

1 hour ago, TiScape said:

When you realize that you take golf a lot less seriously than some here.
 

🤣

In all fairness you are likely doing the same calculation….roughly…. from experience.

@ThinkingPlus always uses math.🧐 (and she’s always correct)👍

 

Edited to add…in all fairness she did make it easy on us by skipping Bryson’s barometric pressure adjustment.🤯

Edited October 16, 2023 by Shilgy

[ThinkingPlus]

7 minutes ago, No_Catchy_Nickname said:

 

Indeed. Though I hate to admit it, my old primary school teacher was right.

In fact, although very OT, there are some who feel that nothing exists, but mathematics. 

[tatertot]

2 hours ago, TiScape said:

When you realize that you take golf a lot less seriously than some here.
 

🤣

In my case ... When you realize you're a lot stupider than most here.

[st1800e]

2 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

There is always math.

As in , thats a pretty strong wind, I'll take 2 extra clubs and flight it down.  I guess that qualifies as math as there's a number "2"in the decision.....

[st1800e]

2 hours ago, b.mattay said:

To anyone who might comment that I picked two 180 shots...the second option goes much farther into the wind because the spin rate is approximately 5000-5300 rpm rather than approximately 7000-7300 rpm. 

Is that you Bryson?

[ThinkingPlus]

7 minutes ago, st1800e said:

As in , thats a pretty strong wind, I'll take 2 extra clubs and flight it down.  I guess that qualifies as math as there's a number "2"in the decision.....

I prefer deterministic approaches rather than heuristic ones. Considering wind as  "1-club" or "2-club" wind for all distances doesn't conform to physical reality.

[st1800e]

7 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

I prefer deterministic approaches rather than heuristic ones. Considering wind as  "1-club" or "2-club" wind for all distances doesn't conform to physical reality.

Do you carry and use a wind velocity gauge with you when playing?