Odds of Shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score

[Shilgy]

25 minutes ago, Dewdman42 said:

I am not calling your integrity into question I said carefully that you may not be internationally doing it.  Just saying if you go into any tournament with an index five or higher then your best game in the past year, you have an unfair advantage whether you intentionally arranged it or not.  Not intentionally cheating perhaps but if you end up winning a round with a score thet you know in your heart is not your very best, then you will FEEL like a cheater.  How much fun is that?  You will have also unwittingly deprived someone else of a deserved win.
 

as I said, look carefully at how and why you are scoring and posting so poorly during your casual rounds so often.  Hey this will help your game trust me.  Never give up any shot of any hole ever.   Live by the motto there is always a chance until you sink the putt on the 18th hole.  If you aren’t thinking that way then don’t post the score.

 

in terms of simple fun you will have more fun if you figure  out why you blow up so often and look at course management probably.  You should be able to hit close to bogey golf most of the time and have an index that reflects it

 

So no one is “allowed” to play well in a tournament? I’ve never heard that logic before.  In our club championship we had a +4 post a 63.  Is that cheating?

 

Edited to add….if I shoot 69 in January my handicap cannot get above 2 for 12 months? Yes assuming par and course rating are same.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Shilgy

[Mr. Bean]

Here in Finland  virtually none of the courses are pested by noise from nearby highways or such so we have the luxury of playing golf amongst the sounds of nature. I truly like that and I am lucky, I know that.

 

I believe I need to say no more about music on a golf course.

[Shilgy]

25 minutes ago, Mr. Bean said:

Here in Finland  virtually none of the courses are pested by noise from nearby highways or such so we have the luxury of playing golf amongst the sounds of nature. I truly like that and I am lucky, I know that.

 

I believe I need to say no more about music on a golf course.

Wrong thread sir.😏

[nsxguy]

5 hours ago, North Butte said:

I think anyone any low 'cap playing in a (net game) large range (of caps) field, un-flighted event is in hell position. Just no reason to do it, it's a silly format. 

 

Fixed that for ya.

 

[Mr. Bean]

42 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

Wrong thread sir.😏

 

Oh, sorry. I wonder how that happened.

 

Thanks.

 

[bladehunter]

4 hours ago, Dewdman42 said:

The most common thing I observe is that when players get a duff shot or penalty, they give up on the hole.  They realize they aren’t making par and will have to work hard to make bogey even, but they give up on it in disgust and end up with double or perhaps even a triple when they might have stayed in the game, sometimes even saving par and definitely saving bogey.  Well these add up.  And in casual rounds they add up a lot because in casual rounds nobody likes getting a bogey, even bogey golfers complain about their bogeys.  Can’t get a par?  Ah screw it then, and they hole goes to hell.  They can just say it was a blow up hole rather then try super hard to close down a worked for bogey and maybe even sometimes still scramble for par!

 

I have even heard them utter the words in those moments “handicap maintenance”

 

but in competition they will not give up a hole so easily.  

Nobody should post scores where they haven’t earnestly played every hole as if it were a competition and every strike matters no matter what.  But thet is simply not what people do in their casual rounds 

That gets into semantics and intentions though.  Example.  
 

course management.. do we post rounds with flawed or aggressive course management?  Things that go against statistical averages etc ?     Yesterday…. I won’t go though the whole round. But let’s just say I played a conservative round because of some driver trouble from the week before.  Just trying to tune in tee strategy.  So I upped the fairway % to 78.  But I went birdie less after 3 straight rounds of 4 or more.  So I was heated to say the least.  On 18 I pulled driver. Purely out of irritation.  It’s a forced 3 shot par 5 where I normally hit 4 iron.  You can hit a hard fade. Blind , and have it thread the needle between two ponds and then you can hit a second impossible shot to the green. That’s what I tried.   Made double bogey.  How do you rule on that ?  I knew it was double or worse or birdie before I hit it. No par in the equation.  It was surely stupid. Unfocused and ill advised….. but I did try to put a good swing on it.  And failed miserably.  
 

I made a similar decision on the par 3 15th that caused a bogey. Going at a pin that cannot be gotten to. And landing in a back elevated bunker that you can’t get up and done from without holding a 25 footer.  
 

 

so where’s the line ?  That’s the issue. I technically “ quit “ after. 13 mentally and just started firing at everything.  I was 3 over then. I finished with a 79.  I could have very easily shot 75-76.  No issues.  I wanted to get back to even par.  And I have no desire to see my handicap rise. 

[tatertot]

Golf is a weird game ... I have found it's best not to use words like "never" or "can't".

 

My biggest problem is, and why I don't play comps anymore, is repeatedly seeing the same guys have "career" days when tournaments roll around. One-offs are what they are. But i got tired of seeing the same double digit handicaps turn in low-70s on tourney days. You all know the guys ... they just seem to be able to "turn it on" when the pressure is on.

[nsxguy]

2 hours ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

 

I'm currently a 21.6. According to GHIN my low was 18.9 around the end of 2022, until the 15.9, 13.6, and 13.0 started to age out. It then crept up into the 22+ range before the 17, 14.8, and 16.9 rounds which are in my current index calculation.

 

I don't appreciate calling my integrity into question. I actually try to play VERY close to the RoG (we do in our group roll out of divots or out of unmarked GUR as our usual course doesn't mark anything, and we do give putts but only within about 18" for pace of play), including 2-stroke MLR E-5 penalties for OB or lost ball. And per your previous post I don't "give up" on rounds when playing badly. 

 

I'm just horribly inconsistent. Yesterday I shot +21 on the front nine followed by +7 on the back. Didn't do anything differently. Just a bunch of compounded mistakes on the front and a (mostly) clean back. The front was one par and nothing else better than double. The back was 4 pars, 4 bogeys, and a triple. 

 

I do perhaps agree that the handicap system, which is based on potential, maybe doesn't accurately capture my game. But I'm not cheating anything. As mentioned, it's a casual skins game with my buddies, so it's not like I'm playing trash in a bunch of $1 skins rounds just to inflate my cap to play well in the rare and random $1 skins game. 

 

But I contributed to this thread as my ability to shoot the occasional exceptional round seems statistically unlikely, but it's very real and not based on me actively trying to manipulate anything. So I was asking if I am truly an outlier or representative of other high-caps...

 

OK, last things first. Handicaps are based on "demonstrated ability", not "potential". i.e. something that CAN be measured, as opposed to something that can't possibly be measured - always hated that "potential" description. I expect everybody can appreciate the subtlety(?) of the difference.

 

Now, the table posted earlier - That table of odds is derived from tournament scores. It says so in the title. So what's that mean ?

 

Again, trying to remember what I've read about it, it is NOT a skins game nor a casual 4-some round. It is also NOT a regular net/Stableford stroke play game you play every Sunday morning with your club or in a 4-some with your regulars.

 

It IS an organized, and at least somewhat special round or rounds. e.g. a club's "Club Championship", a "President's Cup" multi-round comp, a local, or state, or higher organized event with hard cards, possibly roving on course rules officials, etc.

 

Basically, it is very important for the competitors to be trying their BEST. The WHS itself "throws away" 60% of your last 20, right ?

 

Also, as mentioned earlier, and that table demonstrates as well, the higher the handicap, the greater the variance of scores. Also happens with quickly progressing beginners.

 

I know you're not a beginner, but I seem to remember you posting videos and looking for swing advice elsewhere on the site.

 

That, in itself, is an indication you are trying to get better. Play often enough and you will get better. Play often enough and you WILL hit those low differentials more often than the chart indicates.

 

The chart is simply a collection of a lot of data points from ORGANIZED events. It is not the be-all and end-all of amateurs who just play a lot of golf; even in their own clubs. It is a GUIDE.

 

Anywho, personally, I would not consider you an outlier. Nor would I go crazy if you beat me by 3 shots, even though I played say, 4 better than my index. Just like Blade, I would be disappointed(?), but I'd understand the possibility before I played in the event.

 

And, while I'd shake my head over it, I understand how it happens.

 

 

[nsxguy]

28 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

so where’s the line ?  That’s the issue. I technically “ quit “ after. 13 mentally and just started firing at everything.  I was 3 over then. I finished with a 79.  I could have very easily shot 75-76.  No issues.  I wanted to get back to even par.  And I have no desire to see my handicap rise. 

 

But that is why only the best 40% of your last 20 are used.

 

Handicap rounds are supposed to be when you're playing by the ROG and trying. There's nothing that says you have to play the percentages on every shot nor refuse to take on any risk.

 

And on those rounds where one "gives up" after 13. Chances are very good that at that point, even if you played pretty well on the last 5 that round wouldn't get into the best 8 anyway - so where's the harm ? That round ain't getting one's 'cap up -  it likely won't ever get into one's best 8 of 20.

[North Butte]

Effective sandbagging is all about NOT posting your good scores or at least fudging them upwards. Sandbagging to make your bad rounds look worse is a waste of effort.

[bladehunter]

3 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

But that is why only the best 40% of your last 20 are used.

 

Handicap rounds are supposed to be when you're playing by the ROG and trying. There's nothing that says you have to play the percentages on every shot nor refuse to take on any risk.

 

And on those rounds where one "gives up" after 13. Chances are very good that at that point, even if you played pretty well on the last 5 that round wouldn't get into the best 8 anyway - so where's the harm ? That round ain't getting one's 'cap up -  it likely won't ever get into one's best 8 of 20.

As it stands , I’m under the dreaded USga soft cap anyway.  The veiled “ hey are you a cheater “ asterisk….so it’s not rising nearly as fast as I’m playing bad.  Been that way 6-8 months now.  So I’m in a type of purgatory.  I can only go back down.  But I have to shoot 8-10 rounds below 74 to do so.  😂

[Shilgy]

3 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

As it stands , I’m under the dreaded USga soft cap anyway.  The veiled “ hey are you a cheater “ asterisk….so it’s not rising nearly as fast as I’m playing bad.  Been that way 6-8 months now.  So I’m in a type of purgatory.  I can only go back down.  But I have to shoot 8-10 rounds below 74 to do so.  😂

Interesting…I’ve never looked at the soft cap as a “cheater” asterisk at all.  But while you may have lost your way for a bit your demonstrated ability is lower. Thus the, somewhat, lower index than the last 20 scores indicate.

[nsxguy]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

As it stands , I’m under the dreaded USga soft cap anyway.  The veiled “ hey are you a cheater “ asterisk….so it’s not rising nearly as fast as I’m playing bad.  Been that way 6-8 months now.  So I’m in a type of purgatory.  I can only go back down.  But I have to shoot 8-10 rounds below 74 to do so.  😂

 

You DO seem to have something of a persecution complex at times, don't you ? Then again, I guess most of us bristle at even the slightest inference of us cheating, don't we ? I know *I* do.

 

Right after my heart surgery in late '19 I knew once I started playing again my 'cap, under the new WHS, would be going up quickly.

 

I hit the soft cap after a while and then hit the hard cap not all that long afterward.

 

Took a while to normalize (of course) but since then, no caps.

[Dewdman42]

5 hours ago, Shilgy said:

So no one is “allowed” to play well in a tournament? I’ve never heard that logic before.  In our club championship we had a +4 post a 63.  Is that cheating?

there is no way for any of us to know if that was actual intentional cheating other then the player themself, but depending on the course rating and handicap this +4 was differential -4 or -5.  That is right on the edge of statistic possibility, could have been his best round out of 150 rounds or best out of 380 rounds, neither thing is impossible but it’s definitely right on the edge.  I think at that level it’s very difficult to hit a -4 differential.  So he literally had the best round he’s had in years and deserves a big trophy, or else his index is inflated.  Only he/she can know for sure if it was cheating

[Dewdman42]

2 hours ago, bladehunter said:

That gets into semantics and intentions though.  Example.  
 

course management.. do we post rounds with flawed or aggressive course management?  Things that go against statistical averages etc ?     Yesterday…. I won’t go though the whole round. But let’s just say I played a conservative round because of some driver trouble from the week before.  Just trying to tune in tee strategy.  So I upped the fairway % to 78.  But I went birdie less after 3 straight rounds of 4 or more.  So I was heated to say the least.  On 18 I pulled driver. Purely out of irritation.  It’s a forced 3 shot par 5 where I normally hit 4 iron.  You can hit a hard fade. Blind , and have it thread the needle between two ponds and then you can hit a second impossible shot to the green. That’s what I tried.   Made double bogey.  How do you rule on that ?  I knew it was double or worse or birdie before I hit it. No par in the equation.  It was surely stupid. Unfocused and ill advised….. but I did try to put a good swing on it.  And failed miserably.  
 

I made a similar decision on the par 3 15th that caused a bogey. Going at a pin that cannot be gotten to. And landing in a back elevated bunker that you can’t get up and done from without holding a 25 footer.  
 

 

so where’s the line ?  That’s the issue. I technically “ quit “ after. 13 mentally and just started firing at everything.  I was 3 over then. I finished with a 79.  I could have very easily shot 75-76.  No issues.  I wanted to get back to even par.  And I have no desire to see my handicap rise. 

me personally I would not post that experimental round.  And yes I agree with you that a lot of people are using riskier course management during casual rounds they are trying to practice on the course.  But those really should not be posted IMHO.

[Shilgy]

Just now, Dewdman42 said:

there is no way for any of us to know if that was actual intentional cheating other then the player themself, but depending on the course rating and handicap this +4 was differential -4 or -5.  That is right on the edge of statistic possibility, could have been his best round out of 150 rounds or best out of 380 rounds, neither thing is impossible but it’s definitely right on the edge.  I think at that level it’s very difficult to hit a -4 differential.  So he literally had the best round he’s had in years and deserves a big trophy, or else his index is inflated.  Only he/she can know for sure if it was cheating

In this case his index doesn’t matter as it is, or course, a gross event.  Out of the thousands of rounds played this happens every day multiple times.

 

Nothing necessarily nefarious about it.

[Shilgy]

3 minutes ago, Dewdman42 said:

me personally I would not post that experimental round.  And yes I agree with you that a lot of people are using riskier course management during casual rounds they are trying to practice on the course.  But those really should not be posted IMHO.

Sounds to me like you should move somewhere like England where only comp rounds are calculated.**

 

** I do believe they also now have an option to predeclare a regular round as a posting score…not certain on that part.

Edited August 6, 2023 by Shilgy

[Dewdman42]

2 hours ago, tatertot said:

Golf is a weird game ... I have found it's best not to use words like "never" or "can't".

 

My biggest problem is, and why I don't play comps anymore, is repeatedly seeing the same guys have "career" days when tournaments roll around. One-offs are what they are. But i got tired of seeing the same double digit handicaps turn in low-70s on tourney days. You all know the guys ... they just seem to be able to "turn it on" when the pressure is on.

without question.  And the handicap system is actually designed on purpose, and stated as such, to give all club members an equal chance of winning.  What that means is that if 100 players all participated in 100 rounds of golf they should each win one.  More or less. Presuming the indexes are accurate.   And club owners are actually supposed to lower the indexes of winners even, so that they have to wait their turn a while to win another one.  It is literally a system for every kid gets a trophy, except some of the kids wanna be the winners more so they use an inflated index with all manner of justifications and rationalizations for why they think it’s honest.

[Dewdman42]

20 minutes ago, Shilgy said:

In this case his index doesn’t matter as it is, or course, a gross event.  Out of the thousands of rounds played this happens every day multiple times.

 

Nothing necessarily nefarious about it.

In which case as I said it was probably one of his best rounds ever and he deserves a big trophy!!   -4 differential is definitely right at the edge of statistical possibility of happening.  Since it’s gross event there was obviously no sandbagging but at question is whether his +4 index is correct or inflated.  We will go with accurate and leave it there, it was probably lowered a bit after that round.  Not that it matters if this player is likely only playing gross events anyway

Edited August 6, 2023 by Dewdman42

[Dewdman42]

19 hours ago, Shilgy said:

Sounds to me like you should move somewhere like England where only comp rounds are calculated.**

 

** I do believe they also now have an option to predeclare a regular round as a posting score…not certain on that part.

 I don’t participate in handicapped tournaments anymore as I said before I consider them a waste of time due to rampant sandbagging.

 

i think England might be on to something with that though.  When I was in Asia I was in a regular league and they maintained a completely separate club index for everyone that only included tournament play and if you won they lowered it by 5 or 6 and you’d have to play quite a while to have any chance again.  They monitored everyone.

 

Usga indexes are honor system based on casual rounds and basically that means indexes are all over the map.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Dewdman42

[Shilgy]

37 minutes ago, Dewdman42 said:

without question.  And the handicap system is actually designed on purpose, and stated as such, to give all club members an equal chance of winning.  What that means is that if 100 players all participated in 100 rounds of golf they should each win one.  More or less. Presuming the indexes are accurate.   And club owners are actually supposed to lower the indexes of winners even, so that they have to wait their turn a while to win another one.  It is literally a system for every kid gets a trophy, except some of the kids wanna be the winners more so they use an inflated index with all manner of justifications and rationalizations for why they think it’s honest.

What??  Where did you get that nugget?  And no….it does not mean out of 100 players in 100 events they should all win one.  It is still sport. And some players are better than others….even relative to their handicap.  That does not mean they cheat or are sandbaggers….necessarily.  
 

Do sandbaggers exist? Of course we all know some.  Does that mean every player! that shoots even six shots better than their index means they cheated? NO!  The chart tells us how often, approximately, it will occur.  And the chart says it happens multiple time per day.

[Dewdman42]

1 hour ago, Shilgy said:

What??  Where did you get that nugget?  And no….it does not mean out of 100 players in 100 events they should all win one.  It is still sport. And some players are better than others….even relative to their handicap.  That does not mean they cheat or are sandbaggers….necessarily.  
 

Do sandbaggers exist? Of course we all know some.  Does that mean every player! that shoots even six shots better than their index means they cheated? NO!  The chart tells us how often, approximately, it will occur.  And the chart says it happens multiple time per day.

sorry but you need to read more from the creators of the Usga handicapping system and the system by definition is supposed to absolutely level the playing field so that everyone has an even chance to win.  It is not designed for serious competition it is designed for fun club recreational play.  the only true competitive golf is gross play.
 

By definition it cannot have people that win more often then mostly everyone else, excluding perhaps some few people that simply fail under pressure of competition perhaps.  Anyone that is winning more often than everyone else is quite possibly sand bagging, whether they realize it or not. 

 

by the way I haven’t said that everyone shooting under -6 has cheated, i have said, however that the odds of this happening are very slim and the golfer is suspect.  I don’t know where you get multiple times per day, we must be understanding the chart differently s  Knuth goes into great detail about all of this I encourage you to read his writing.  

Edited August 7, 2023 by Dewdman42

[Dewdman42]

I think what they ought to do for non scratch competitive play is create classes.  A class, b class, c class.  All gross competition.  If you win a class so many times you advance to the next class up.  No handicaps.  When I raced motorcycles it was like that.  It was always hard to break out if the c class because there were always some good new riders on their way up, but they could figure that out.  Maybe use handicap to determine initial starting class.   There are a lot of so called bogey golfers out there.  That should be one class.  Competing for best bogey golf.  If you win a few times they kick you up to the mid cap class.  Win a few of those and then you’re in single digit class.  Win a few of those and then you get to play scratch gross golf with the best.

 

people shooting worse then bogey golf in my opinion should not even be competing, but you can have a double bogey class ok fine why not.

 

gross competition is the only fair way to compete, period.  Handicapped competition is loaded with unfairness, ironically.  There is nothing fair about applying handicaps.  The better golfers are all  penalized.  Yea that’s fair!  Not.  
 

handicapping simply provides a way for casual recreational players to compete with each other in a way where it’s not always the same best players in the club winning.  In theory the player

having the best round relative to what they usually do will be the winner.  The only way that can ever be fair in that context would be under strict oversight of every single golfer’s index which will never happen  logistically.  So it is pointless and a waste of time.

Edited August 7, 2023 by Dewdman42

[david.c.w]

11 hours ago, bladehunter said:

I think 3-9 handicaps are the hell position. Not able to compete in gross events unless flighted. And not really likely to compete often in net events.  

 

4.5 index checking in.  You are exactly right.  Fortunately what our events now have is a payout for both gross and net in the "gold tee" flight.  Higher handicappers generally play the blues and it is all net.  The golds now pay both 1st/2nd gross and 1st/2nd net. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, david.c.w said:

 

4.5 index checking in.  You are exactly right.  Fortunately what our events now have is a payout for both gross and net in the "gold tee" flight.  Higher handicappers generally play the blues and it is all net.  The golds now pay both 1st/2nd gross and 1st/2nd net. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We can never get that past at my place. The majority don’t want their purses split up. 😂

[Newby]

12 hours ago, Shilgy said:

Sounds to me like you should move somewhere like England where only comp rounds are calculated.**

 

** I do believe they also now have an option to predeclare a regular round as a posting score…not certain on that part.

We have had that facility since the start of WHS. In fact, prior to WHS we had the option to return Supplementary Scores (ie General Play) for some years.

Pre-declaration is a must and post validation is supposedly, But the software vendors who provide mobile phone score entry systems have been rather laggardly in getting that part right. The PC based systems (used by CONGU for Supplementary Scores) already had that built in.

[North Butte]

The proportion of golfers in USA who want a real CONGU-style competition handicap make up maybe 10% of GHIN’s subscribers. We are a nation of solo artists, vanity ‘cappers and “track my progress” solipsists. 

Edited August 7, 2023 by North Butte

[Newby]

17 hours ago, North Butte said:

The proportion of golfers in USA who want a real CONGU-style competition handicap make up maybe 10% of GHIN’s subscribers. We are a nation of solo artists, vanity ‘cappers and “track my progress” solipsists. 

My impression is that the proportion of general play scores increased here since WHS was introduced.

England Golf and I believe the other GB&I Authorities very actively encouraged it.

WHS has of course got reports which show this for all or individual players.

Edited August 8, 2023 by Newby

[ChaosTheory]

2 hours ago, North Butte said:

The proportion of golfers in USA who want a real CONGU-style competition handicap make up maybe 10% of GHIN’s subscribers. We are a nation of solo artists, vanity ‘cappers and “track my progress” solipsists. 

 

I don't know...  You don't belong to a club, do you?  If not, I can see how you might think that.

[Golferpaul]

7 hours ago, North Butte said:

The proportion of golfers in USA who want a real CONGU-style competition handicap make up maybe 10% of GHIN’s subscribers. We are a nation of solo artists, vanity ‘cappers and “track my progress” solipsists. 

I'm afraid I have to disagree.  But I'm only familiar with CC golf so the munis might differ.