Odds of Shooting an Exceptional Tournament Score

[nsxguy]

On 8/7/2023 at 12:20 PM, Snowman9000 said:

 

I don't know...  You don't belong to a club, do you?  If not, I can see how you might think that.

 

22 hours ago, Golferpaul said:

I'm afraid I have to disagree.  But I'm only familiar with CC golf so the munis might differ.

 

I'm not sure NB phrased that as he meant to.

 

I believe what he's saying is that only "competition" scores should count towards one's handicap (& maybe pre-declared rounds as well - idk), as was the way of CONGU and, is now the way with the WHS as well.

 

Most(?) Americans who want to keep a handicap, play ONLY casual games, and those who are like that seldom play organized events.

 

So they'd basically never be posting a score.

[North Butte]

8 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

 

 

I'm not sure NB phrased that as he meant to.

 

I believe what he's saying is that only "competition" scores should count towards one's handicap (& maybe pre-declared rounds as well - idk), as was the way of CONGU and, is now the way with the WHS as well.

 

Most(?) Americans who want to keep a handicap, play ONLY casual games, and those who are like that seldom play organized events.

 

So they'd basically never be posting a score.

Yep. What he said. 

[golfortennis]

I've always tried to take the view that a guy can shoot nearly any score on a given day, and there may or may not be anything nefarious about it.  It's when he does it a second day in a row that the eyebrows need to be raised.

 

We just had an event at our club that had a gross and net element to it.  One fellow in particular has had a reputation of playing games.  Last year he shot the identical score both days in the same event, which may not be of note except the fact they were both *7* strokes better than anything he had posted all year.  Naturally he won the net prize going away, for either the second or third year in a row.  It was so bad one year someone took a little baggie and put some sand in it and tacked it next to his name on the board that had all the scores.  I saw the results of this year's event, and from what I calculate, he had his handicap for the event reduced by about 8 shots from what the golf canada app says should be his handicap.  I sent a note to the people involved for taking that step.  Things had been quite lax at our club on that front.

 

The big problem is someone has to a)be willing to do something about it, and b)someone that plays with someone has to speak up when there is something going on.  The person in question above I was told would post the score under a different set of tees in order to gain more "strokes".  I just checked, and his scores a lot more in line.  He did shoot his best score of the year in one of the rounds, but only a couple of strokes better.  However he hasn't posted those.  Hmmm...

 

 

[nsxguy]

6 hours ago, golfortennis said:

I've always tried to take the view that a guy can shoot nearly any score on a given day, and there may or may not be anything nefarious about it.  It's when he does it a second day in a row that the eyebrows need to be raised.

 

We just had an event at our club that had a gross and net element to it.  One fellow in particular has had a reputation of playing games.  Last year he shot the identical score both days in the same event, which may not be of note except the fact they were both *7* strokes better than anything he had posted all year.  Naturally he won the net prize going away, for either the second or third year in a row.  It was so bad one year someone took a little baggie and put some sand in it and tacked it next to his name on the board that had all the scores.  I saw the results of this year's event, and from what I calculate, he had his handicap for the event reduced by about 8 shots from what the golf canada app says should be his handicap.  I sent a note to the people involved for taking that step.  Things had been quite lax at our club on that front.

 

The big problem is someone has to a)be willing to do something about it, and b)someone that plays with someone has to speak up when there is something going on.  The person in question above I was told would post the score under a different set of tees in order to gain more "strokes".  I just checked, and his scores a lot more in line.  He did shoot his best score of the year in one of the rounds, but only a couple of strokes better.  However he hasn't posted those.  Hmmm...

 

 

 

[naval2006]

Interesting stat.  My best net score in tournament this year was -3 with a 6 handicap.  I see that going from -3 to -4 is more than twice as hard.  

[StudentGolfer4]

Just had the senior club championship at our local club. It was held over 36 holes and out of 50 guys the lowest 18 hole net score was -5, 67. Only 9 under par net scores were recorded. 4 guys were under par net after 36. One was the overall champ and he’s a +handicap. Everyone got 100% of their cap. 
 

Im sure it happens but at the places I’m most familiar with you very seldom see -7, -8, or -9 like many people claim to commonly see at their home courses. 

Edited August 13, 2023 by StudentGolfer4

[North Butte]

11 hours ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

Just had the senior club championship at our local club. It was held over 36 holes and out of 50 guys the lowest 18 hole net score was -5, 67. Only 9 under par net scores were recorded. 4 guys were under par net after 36. One was the overall champ and he’s a +handicap. Everyone got 100% of their cap. 
 

Im sure it happens but at the places I’m most familiar with you very seldom see -7, -8, or -9 like many people claim to commonly see at their home courses. 

I won the hacker flight of our club "championship" one year with a -3 the first day backed up by -1 the second for -4 overall  (I think that's right, it was a long time ago, maybe it was -4 and E). I was concerned that I might be docked by the handicap system for sandbagging so I asked the club pro and he laughed. He said a real sandbagger would get to double digits over the two days. 

 

But nobody else in the last flight came within 5 strokes of me. I think that's because most of them play every day in groups with breakfast balls and/or rolling out of divots and/or gimme putts. So a typical "15hcp" is really a 20-something and it would take two career rounds to get under net par playing off 15.

[RCGA]

We have a weekly, season long club "tournament" (ball-in-hole) 

 

So far this year a 12hcp has gone net -6, -3, -3, -4, +7, -2, -5 

 

We also have a 9-hole weekly "members day" and this same person has gone (for 9 holes), net -1, +7, -2, -5, -1, -3, -2, +2, +3

 

They're obviously cleaning up in points and money. 

 

Sandbagging? 

 

 

[st1800e]

1 minute ago, RCGA said:

Sandbagging

Possibly, are they entering all their scores?  

[st1800e]

Some 40 years ago in my early years of golf as 13 hcp on a men’s night,I shot 74. It was an out of body experience, broke my driver on the first hole, so I used a 3 wood for tee shots the rest of the round.  
Of course I got a bunch of boos when it was announced!  Was I sandbagging? No, just an outlier.  Over the next couple years I got down to 8 and 20 years later a 1.  
 

Like a lot of posters I’ve seen some consistently low net scores from others over the years.  As a club captain for a few years monitored scores and handicap entries.  There were a few miscreants.  One guy after a serious discussion didn’t return as a member the following year.  

[North Butte]

2 minutes ago, st1800e said:

Some 40 years ago in my early years of golf as 13 hcp on a men’s night,I shot 74. It was an out of body experience, broke my driver on the first hole, so I used a 3 wood for tee shots the rest of the round.  
Of course I got a bunch of boos when it was announced!  Was I sandbagging? No, just an outlier.  Over the next couple years I got down to 8 and 20 years later a 1.  
 

Like a lot of posters I’ve seen some consistently low net scores from others over the years.  As a club captain for a few years monitored scores and handicap entries.  There were a few miscreants.  One guy after a serious discussion didn’t return as a member the following year.  

The previous two times I entered the club championship weekend, I finished DFL in the last flight. Can't recall the horror but neither round, either year was within eight strokes of my 'cap. 

[RCGA]

28 minutes ago, RCGA said:

We have a weekly, season long club "tournament" (ball-in-hole) 

 

So far this year a 12hcp has gone net -6, -3, -3, -4, +7, -2, -5 

 

We also have a 9-hole weekly "members day" and this same person has gone (for 9 holes), net -1, +7, -2, -5, -1, -3, -2, +2, +3

 

They're obviously cleaning up in points and money. 

 

Sandbagging? 

 

 

 

27 minutes ago, st1800e said:

Possibly, are they entering all their scores?  

 

I guess. Not that it means much since someone purposely sandbagging would be entering artificially(?) high scores on non tournament rounds.  

[st1800e]

33 minutes ago, RCGA said:

 

 

I guess. Not that it means much since someone purposely sandbagging would be entering artificially(?) high scores on non tournament rounds.  

But it’s worth checking if he entered those tournament scores…Peer review.  

[nsxguy]

7 hours ago, RCGA said:

We have a weekly, season long club "tournament" (ball-in-hole) 

 

So far this year a 12hcp has gone net -6, -3, -3, -4, +7, -2, -5 

 

We also have a 9-hole weekly "members day" and this same person has gone (for 9 holes), net -1, +7, -2, -5, -1, -3, -2, +2, +3

 

They're obviously cleaning up in points and money. 

 

Sandbagging? 

 

 

 

For purposes of the recently brought up "Odds of an Exceptional Tournament Score" table, only 2 numbers matter.

 

1) A player's Handicap Index going into the round.

 

2) The player's differential that day.

 

Subtract one from the other and look it up in the table.

 

Sandbagging ? That's for you to decide.

 

 

[nsxguy]

7 hours ago, st1800e said:

Some 40 years ago in my early years of golf as 13 hcp on a men’s night,I shot 74. It was an out of body experience, broke my driver on the first hole, so I used a 3 wood for tee shots the rest of the round.  
Of course I got a bunch of boos when it was announced!  Was I sandbagging? No, just an outlier.  Over the next couple years I got down to 8 and 20 years later a 1.  
 

Like a lot of posters I’ve seen some consistently low net scores from others over the years.  As a club captain for a few years monitored scores and handicap entries.  There were a few miscreants.  One guy after a serious discussion didn’t return as a member the following year.  

 

Hope ya didn't take it to heart.

 

When I was on one of my numerous SE Asia trips I played golf with a local bar. It was often about 20-30 guys or so.

 

When the vans got back to the bar after the round, the "Captain" would announce the winners, leaving 1st place for last.

 

Inevitably, even if the winning Stableford score was only 34 points (approx net of +2), as it sometimes was on a difficult course, one or 2 of the guys would call out "Sandbaggin' MFer".

[st1800e]

2 hours ago, nsxguy said:

Hope ya didn't take it to heart.

Nope!   Was pretty happy about what I’d accomplished, gave me confidence in my potential which served me well as I kept grinding at improving my game. 
 

Footnote.  The use of the three wood didn’t tell me not to use the driver, it taught me to learn that I needed to hit the fairway with the driver.  

[st1800e]

2 hours ago, nsxguy said:

one or 2 of the guys would call out "Sandbaggin' MFer".

Yup, why golf is like life…..in both there’s always naysayers and conspiracy theorists……

[acde1345]

I've read most of this discussion and find it fascinating, both academically and personally because of the situation that I am in at my local club.  My current USGA handicap is 15.5. It was as low as 13.3 a month ago.  I play weekly casual rounds as well as all of my club's tournaments.  Should my handicap be adjusted for an upcoming tournament based upon my Competition scores (below) from the past 12 months?

 

I think the discussion in my case is a great example of where probability and potential intersect, especially for mid-high handicappers who are actively trying to improve their game, and will inevitably play well occasionally (if not consistently).

 

I am not a cheater, but as others have said in this thread, at 15.5 right now I would receive a lot of strokes for a flighted net competition.

 

DIFFERENTIAL	INDEX @ TIME	DIFF VS THEN	DIFF VS NOW
15.6	13.4	2.2	0.1
22.3	13.4	8.9	6.8
18.3	13.4	4.9	2.8
15.8	14.5	1.3	0.3
13	17.3	-4.3	-2.5
11.3	18.2	-6.9	-4.2
18	17.9	0.1	2.5
22.4	17.9	4.5	6.9
15.8	15.4	0.4	0.3
22.9	15.4	7.5	7.4

 

(Of note, the two rounds where I performed the best were on consecutive days of a two day event.  The 11.3 differential was objectively the 2nd best round of my life, bettered by my best round about a week following that competition.)

[nsxguy]

39 minutes ago, acde1345 said:

I've read most of this discussion and find it fascinating, both academically and personally because of the situation that I am in at my local club.  My current USGA handicap is 15.5. It was as low as 13.3 a month ago.  I play weekly casual rounds as well as all of my club's tournaments.  Should my handicap be adjusted for an upcoming tournament based upon my Competition scores (below) from the past 12 months?

 

I think the discussion in my case is a great example of where probability and potential intersect, especially for mid-high handicappers who are actively trying to improve their game, and will inevitably play well occasionally (if not consistently).

 

I am not a cheater, but as others have said in this thread, at 15.5 right now I would receive a lot of strokes for a flighted net competition.

 

DIFFERENTIAL	INDEX @ TIME	DIFF VS THEN	DIFF VS NOW
15.6	13.4	2.2	0.1
22.3	13.4	8.9	6.8
18.3	13.4	4.9	2.8
15.8	14.5	1.3	0.3
13	17.3	-4.3	-2.5
11.3	18.2	-6.9	-4.2
18	17.9	0.1	2.5
22.4	17.9	4.5	6.9
15.8	15.4	0.4	0.3
22.9	15.4	7.5	7.4

 

(Of note, the two rounds where I performed the best were on consecutive days of a two day event.  The 11.3 differential was objectively the 2nd best round of my life, bettered by my best round about a week following that competition.)

 

If it were up to me, nope, wouldn't adjust you at all.

[mark m]

1 hour ago, acde1345 said:

I've read most of this discussion and find it fascinating, both academically and personally because of the situation that I am in at my local club.  My current USGA handicap is 15.5. It was as low as 13.3 a month ago.  I play weekly casual rounds as well as all of my club's tournaments.  Should my handicap be adjusted for an upcoming tournament based upon my Competition scores (below) from the past 12 months?

 

I think the discussion in my case is a great example of where probability and potential intersect, especially for mid-high handicappers who are actively trying to improve their game, and will inevitably play well occasionally (if not consistently).

 

I am not a cheater, but as others have said in this thread, at 15.5 right now I would receive a lot of strokes for a flighted net competition.

 

DIFFERENTIAL	INDEX @ TIME	DIFF VS THEN	DIFF VS NOW
15.6	13.4	2.2	0.1
22.3	13.4	8.9	6.8
18.3	13.4	4.9	2.8
15.8	14.5	1.3	0.3
13	17.3	-4.3	-2.5
11.3	18.2	-6.9	-4.2
18	17.9	0.1	2.5
22.4	17.9	4.5	6.9
15.8	15.4	0.4	0.3
22.9	15.4	7.5	7.4

 

(Of note, the two rounds where I performed the best were on consecutive days of a two day event.  The 11.3 differential was objectively the 2nd best round of my life, bettered by my best round about a week following that competition.)

We don’t know you and we don’t see enough of your scoring record to make a good judgment, but here is a question- are your best scores from tournaments/club competitions? If so, what is happening in your “casual” rounds? Know yourself. Perhaps you need some wagers or a game of some type to bear down? I know I do. 

 

I am quoting one of my earlier posts in this thread, from page 2:

Most of us aren’t robots, and we typically have a distribution of scores which looks like a bell curve. Your distribution of scores should be similar whether you are playing in a comp or not. If all or most of your good scores are from comps, it suggests something is not right - i.e., the player has a different emphasis. They like to say they are a “tournament player,” or other similar excuses. But the bottom line is, why should higher scores from rounds where you aren’t trying as hard be used in the calculation for such players?

[North Butte]

3 hours ago, acde1345 said:

I've read most of this discussion and find it fascinating, both academically and personally because of the situation that I am in at my local club.  My current USGA handicap is 15.5. It was as low as 13.3 a month ago.  I play weekly casual rounds as well as all of my club's tournaments.  Should my handicap be adjusted for an upcoming tournament based upon my Competition scores (below) from the past 12 months?

 

I think the discussion in my case is a great example of where probability and potential intersect, especially for mid-high handicappers who are actively trying to improve their game, and will inevitably play well occasionally (if not consistently).

 

I am not a cheater, but as others have said in this thread, at 15.5 right now I would receive a lot of strokes for a flighted net competition.

 

DIFFERENTIAL	INDEX @ TIME	DIFF VS THEN	DIFF VS NOW
15.6	13.4	2.2	0.1
22.3	13.4	8.9	6.8
18.3	13.4	4.9	2.8
15.8	14.5	1.3	0.3
13	17.3	-4.3	-2.5
11.3	18.2	-6.9	-4.2
18	17.9	0.1	2.5
22.4	17.9	4.5	6.9
15.8	15.4	0.4	0.3
22.9	15.4	7.5	7.4

 

(Of note, the two rounds where I performed the best were on consecutive days of a two day event.  The 11.3 differential was objectively the 2nd best round of my life, bettered by my best round about a week following that competition.)

A couple years ago I had a 6-8 week spell where I was like the Bishop in Caddyshack. I'd been playing off a course handicap of 16-17 for years, never lower than 15 and all of a sudden I was breaking 80 as often as not. My handicap plunged from 16 to 11 over the course of one 20-round window and eventually bottomed out at 7! If I'd have played in a tournament during that period I hate to think what everyone would have said about me.

 

Since then, my course handicap has gradually rebounded to around 12 and will probably drift a little higher eventually. But it was a magical couple of months. No explanation, never seen so many iron shots land within 10-15 feet of the flag as I did that spring. 

 

My handicap has since re

[ChipNRun]

In most seasons I play 30 or so full rounds, about half to them in amateur circuit events.

 

I'm a somewhat erratic golfer, so I probably have greater range between season high and low scores than many.

 

Each season I have a couple of low scores, either an Exceptional in a tournament or a "are you sure you shot this low" warning from the GHIN system. What I have noticed is this:

 

Those low scores come on days when I had no penalty strokes, plus a couple of birdies.

[StudentGolfer4]

Had a 3.5index shoot 67 in a tournament. After the revision and exceptional score he dropped to a 1.5. 
 

One of the best guys I know and was glad to be with him that day. Post every round played all year. He just got hot. No sandbagging at all. 

[davep043]

10 hours ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

Had a 3.5index shoot 67 in a tournament. After the revision and exceptional score he dropped to a 1.5. 
 

One of the best guys I know and was glad to be with him that day. Post every round played all year. He just got hot. No sandbagging at all. 

No matter what the "sandbagging whiners" say, these things DO happen.  You can roll boxcars (double sixes) two or three or four times in a row, it DOES happen, just rarely.  Similarly, a player CAN go really low, even two or three times in a row, its not "evidence" of sandbagging.  Its certainly a valid reason to look at his scoring and posting record, but its just not proof.

[ChaosTheory]

OTOH

I've been a member at a few places and have seen that certain people are always up there in the net events.  I think some of them even manage which flight they are going to be in so that they have a chance at gross in the flight.

 

Having played a lot of rounds with some of those people, I almost never saw obvious evidence of bagging.  Mostly I saw riskier playing strategy in casual or small money rounds versus the big events, the results of which had the effect of bagging.  I also saw differences in the effort spent on reading putts.  I knew one guy who didn't want you to concede his putt, and he even said it was to protect his cap.  I think there are some skilled practitioners of the art of subtle bagging.  Again, the key for me is that year after year, they are high on the board in the big events, shooting better than average.  I know any of us can get hot for two rounds at the right time.  Because I have done it myself.  But every year?  I'd like to see the odds of that. 

 

Net events are only trustworthy among friends.  🙂

Yet as a mid capper, I'm always ready to get some strokes and tee it up!  Who knows, maybe it will be my day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Schulzmc]

On 9/24/2023 at 9:09 AM, davep043 said:

No matter what the "sandbagging whiners" say, these things DO happen.  You can roll boxcars (double sixes) two or three or four times in a row, it DOES happen, just rarely.  Similarly, a player CAN go really low, even two or three times in a row, its not "evidence" of sandbagging.  Its certainly a valid reason to look at his scoring and posting record, but its just not proof.

This!

 

Played in a member/guest last week against a member and his son. The son is a 7 handicap and he shot 34 gross (31 net) against us. He has two little kids, plays 9 holes a week, and I am sure is a legit 7. He just caught a little lightning in a bottle and hit 7 fairways with 300+ yard drives. We smiled, shook his hand, and swallowed hard at our 8-1 loss. 

 

Oh - and he shot 47 in the afternoon match, losing 5 balls. That's golf!

[davep043]

 

1 hour ago, Snowman9000 said:

OTOH

I've been a member at a few places and have seen that certain people are always up there in the net events. 

 

On 9/24/2023 at 10:09 AM, davep043 said:

  Its certainly a valid reason to look at his scoring and posting record, but its just not proof.

 

One of the jobs you should expect a Handicap Committee to do.

[ChaosTheory]

3 hours ago, davep043 said:

Handicap Committee

 

Those have only existed on paper, if at all, at the clubs I've belonged to.  I've never heard one talked about at a club or course, not once.   That's unfortunate.  I wonder how widespread it is.

[Newby]

22 minutes ago, Snowman9000 said:

 

Those have only existed on paper, if at all, at the clubs I've belonged to.  I've never heard one talked about at a club or course, not once.   That's unfortunate.  I wonder how widespread it is.

Not very over here. But it does happen.

[North Butte]

The last time I heard anything from our club's handicap committee was about a year after USGA changed the rule to say no solo rounds posted. The committee had a brand-new chairman and he was all gung ho. Sent out an E-mail saying he was now the chair and adding basically, "I've noticed a lot of people making tee times but not posting their scores. You need to post every single round, even if you are just out practicing by yourself".

 

I went and spoke to the poor deluded fellow. Printed out the relevant stuff from USGA's web site. He looked at it and said, "That's just crazy, they must have made a mistake". Just totally fronted it.

 

But he didn't send out any more E-mails after that. Haven't heard a peep out of him or any of his successors since then.