Target # of "makeable" birdie putt chances/round for a 6 cap? Of those, how many do you make under 20 feet?

[RoyalMustang]

3 hours ago, Roejye said:

The round you posted was a heck of a round, if that's a normal round for you, it seems like you're dropping a lot of strokes somewhere. Of those birdie chances you missed, how did you score? I would assume a lot were relatively stress free pars, if not, that's something to look into. I think just cleaning up those other areas that are hurting you would help more. I've seen a lot of threads on various forums about "why/how do I sink more putts from 15,20,x feet?" Then they go and post their averages and those are actually pretty good. It's a matter of realistic expectations and some luck (those putts you missed by centimeters for example), and taking a hard look at your game.

 

I had two 3-putts: one was a misread (downhill and I hit it too hard) and the other was me being too casual on a 3-footer. I also had some solid 2-putts from 50 feet though; you win some and lose some. Generally my leave is 3 feet or less. 

 

The 4 penalties by going past the white stakes jump out at me. Overall I was 10/14 FIR. One miss was a cut drive that flew way right and the other was a 3W that did the same. 2 bad swings, 4 strokes. 

 

Lately I've been getting 7-9 birdie chances/round. Like you said, it's about making a couple and ensuring that my misses are simply offsetting a birdie, at worst. 

 

Just for context, I shot a 76 in a tournament recently, but it was at a 71.8/128 course (standard mens tee). This is really a thread about "what good looks like" at my current ~6 and what it would look like at a 3-4 cap. I had 8 under 20 birdie chances that day, made 2, and also got lucky on a 35-footer. I didn't play that well but avoided big mistakes. 

[wagolfer7]

11 minutes ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

It sounds like golfing is like running a business; sure, everyone wants that next "big product" and birdie/eagle opportunity, but much of the value creation is in minimizing errors; high cost of production, dead assets/inventory, lack of supply chain discipline (the double/triple/snowman scores) when you have an otherwise decent game. 

 

I think you got the right idea.  Eliminate doubles and limit bogeys first.  

 

My best rounds with a lot of birdies - did not come from sinking 15-20 footers.  They came from hitting it closer 12 feet or less.  2 putt birdies.  Short par 4's - hitting inside of 6 ft.  Etc.  

 

I've had days where I make a bunch of putts that don't follow the statistics table.  But even those days weren't my best round days.  Hit it closer, make more birdies.  

[MountainKing]

As a 1 handicap, I personally wouldn't consider anything over 10 feet to be a legit birdie opportunity.    A 6 handicap, the odds of you sinking anything outside of 10 feet is pretty slim, even less doing it multiple times. Obviously it can happen, but it's not the norm.  At your level, IMO, the best way to drop your scores consistently into the 70's  is focus on what you need to do to eliminate the bogies and higher. 

[MountainKing]

1 hour ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

It sounds like golfing is like running a business; sure, everyone wants that next "big product" and birdie/eagle opportunity, but much of the value creation is in minimizing errors; high cost of production, dead assets/inventory, lack of supply chain discipline (the double/triple/snowman scores) when you have an otherwise decent game. 

 

Spot on - the best guy in our group plays to a +2 and plays some of the most boring golf you can possibly think of.  Fat part of the fairway, middle of the green, lays up on all the par 5s.  He takes advantage of pins that sit in the middle of the green. When he does get offline, his goal is to limit that damage.  He shot a 67 in our last round, so it's hard to argue with that result.  You think I'd learn a thing or two from playing with him.

[Jayjay_theweim_guy]

1 hour ago, MountainKing said:

Spot on - the best guy in our group plays to a +2 and plays some of the most boring golf you can possibly think of.  Fat part of the fairway, middle of the green, lays up on all the par 5s....

That last part is surprising. I wouldn't think you'd get sufficient proximity on your third shot to make up for the extra shot required to get on or near the green.  Accordingly, par 5s where you can get home in two 'should' be your best birdie chances, and it's surprising to read of a +handicapper not taking advantage of those.  Maybe his FW game isn't the best?

 

Seems to work for him though...

[MountainKing]

1 hour ago, Jayjay_theweim_guy said:

That last part is surprising. I wouldn't think you'd get sufficient proximity on your third shot to make up for the extra shot required to get on or near the green.  Accordingly, par 5s where you can get home in two 'should' be your best birdie chances, and it's surprising to read of a +handicapper not taking advantage of those.  Maybe his FW game isn't the best?

 

Seems to work for him though..

 

He's a shockingly short hitter for how good he is. He'll go for things within his range which is about  510-520.  With the yardage we normally play at, most par 5's are well beyond that. 

[ac6]

59 minutes ago, MountainKing said:

 

He's a shockingly short hitter for how good he is. He'll go for things within his range which is about  510-520.  With the yardage we normally play at, most par 5's are well beyond that. 

 

Going for it at 510-520 probably means something like 270 off the tee and a 240 3W approach? That's plenty long at most any course you can think of especially if the guy never gets in trouble. Hell, Bernhard Langer just won the Senior Open on a 7200 yard track and he's averaging less than 270 this season. 

[BigUrsus]

I forget the metric but consider an increase in GIR translates to an increase in putts as proximity would increase. My point being that its unrealistic to expect to make a lot of birdie putts just because your hitting a lot of greens. You would see more putts with an increase in greens hit. 

[Petethreeput]

As a 6 earlier this year I was averaging 9.+ GIR, I would guess my proximity might have 1 inside 6’ then 5 inside 20’.  Would hope to convert 1 of those.

 

Since April I am down to a 3.  I average just under 12 greens, still only 1 inside 6’, and 6 or 7 under 20’.  I hope to convert two.

 

I think one of the strokes can be attributed to the extra birdie (it’s really .68 difference).  In my opinion, the other 2.32 is tee to green, and particularly GIR which is a direct result of hitting the fairway.

 

I also think most everyone would agree with this.

[bladehunter]

4 hours ago, MountainKing said:

 

Spot on - the best guy in our group plays to a +2 and plays some of the most boring golf you can possibly think of.  Fat part of the fairway, middle of the green, lays up on all the par 5s.  He takes advantage of pins that sit in the middle of the green. When he does get offline, his goal is to limit that damage.  He shot a 67 in our last round, so it's hard to argue with that result.  You think I'd learn a thing or two from playing with him.

He’d have to be one hell of a putter to be a +2 laying up on all par 5s . That or a really really Zach Johnson ish wedge player. …. I know from experience that you have to have a scoring average under par on at least one of the 3 types of holes to carry a handicap +2 or better.  . Par 3-4-5…. Most of us have it on the par 5s. And try to be around even on the other two.  I’d be curious to know what his stats are there ?  It’s extremely rare for anyone to be under par on par 3s as a whole.  In fact I can’t name anyone.  And fairly uncommon for it to be so on par 4s.  
 

 

[bladehunter]

20 minutes ago, BigUrsus said:

I forget the metric but consider an increase in GIR translates to an increase in putts as proximity would increase. My point being that its unrealistic to expect to make a lot of birdie putts just because your hitting a lot of greens. You would see more putts with an increase in greens hit. 

Bingo.  If anything it will make the putting stats of a mediocre putter- worse ,the closer he hits it. .  

Edited July 7, 2023 by bladehunter

[GungHoGolf]

47 minutes ago, bladehunter said:

I know from experience that you have to have a scoring average under par on at least one of the 3 types of holes to carry a handicap +2 or better.  . Par 3-4-5…. Most of us have it on the par 5s. And try to be around even on the other two.

 

You’d be hard-pressed to find even one non-pro who averages under par on par 3 or par 4 holes. And if they did, they’d almost certainly be further under par on par 5 holes. 

 

Here are the PGA Tour scoring averages:

 

Par 3: 3.07

Par 4: 4.04

Par 5: 4.64

Birdies Per Round: 3.64

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by GungHoGolf

[bladehunter]

1 minute ago, GungHoGolf said:

 

You’d be hard-pressed to find even one non-pro who averages under par on par 3 or par 4 holes. And if they did, they’d almost certainly be further under par on par 5 holes. 

 

Here are the PGA Tour scoring averages:

 

Par 3: 3.07

Par 4: 4.04

Par 5: 4.64

Yep. Thanks for confirming it. That mirrors what I saw in myself. I’ve always wanted to see par 4s and 3s anywhere near even as a whole .  And it’s never happened.  But you can play the par 5s under if you have a little length and a good wedge game. 

[MountainKing]

1 hour ago, bladehunter said:

He’d have to be one hell of a putter to be a +2 laying up on all par 5s . That or a really really Zach Johnson ish wedge player. …. I know from experience that you have to have a scoring average under par on at least one of the 3 types of holes to carry a handicap +2 or better.  . Par 3-4-5…. Most of us have it on the par 5s. And try to be around even on the other two.  I’d be curious to know what his stats are there ?  It’s extremely rare for anyone to be under par on par 3s as a whole.  In fact I can’t name anyone.  And fairly uncommon for it to be so on par 4s.  
 

 

 

He's good at taking advantage of situations and limiting damage. His short game is great,  but he hits a ton of greens in regulation.  

His scoring average in grint is 72.3, so it's not under par.  I wouldn't expect most +2s to be.

 

Also not sure why we're hung up on this.  The point of this thread is to provide advice to somebody trying to get into the 70s, not critique advice I'm giving using a friend of mine.  If you guys doubt it,  shoot me a PM and when you're in Chicago I'll arrange a round

Edited July 7, 2023 by MountainKing

[bladehunter]

1 minute ago, MountainKing said:

 

He's good at taking advantage of situations and limiting damage. His short game is great,  but he hits a ton of greens in regulation.  

His scoring average in grint is 72.3, so it's not under par.  I wouldn't expect most +2s to be.

Sure. I’m not at all calling you out. I’m just curious of his personal path I guess.  
 

but yes. He won’t be under par overall.  I just mean on one type or section of holes. Par 3 4 or 5s.    I guess it’s technically possible to be even ish on all 3 and get the same end result .  But that’s a rare bird.  Which is why it raised the question.   Kudos for him.  But I will say.  It’s not a path many can emulate. He may not even be able to do it as he ages without moving way up tees. 
 

what I’m saying is in most plus caps you’ll find , length covers up the less than perfect golf holes we play.  Your guy is just playing perfect golf minus the length.   That’s a thing you won’t see once  at many amateur events. 

[Santiago Golf]

AVG Tour Pro hits around 12 GIR

Data suggests the avg Plus Handicap hits 14 GIR 

Scratch Handicap 10 GIR

Low Single Diget 8 GIR

 

So a 6 handicap is looking at an avg of 6 GIR

This is going to vary player to player 

There are probably 6 handicap ladies players that hit maybe 2 GIR per round and you could argue they are better players than plus handicap men, they just don't hit it far enough to shot under par

 

So lets go with 6 GIR 

Par 5s 2/4

Par 3s 1/4

Par 4s 3/10 

 

Odds alone they probably have on their GIR

3 putts outside 30 feet 

2 putts between 10 and 20 feet

1 putt inside 10 feet 

 

I would say the only birdie opportunity for them is putt from inside 10 feet 

 

PGA Tour players avg 50% from 8 feet and that statistic hasn't changed in years even with better balls, better putter technology, better green reading methods, better etc 

 

Simply you cannot putt statistically significantly better than your skill level. There are extreme outliers and some of them would be better handicaps if they played a shorter golf course

 

So on a typical day, they might make 1 birdie and statistics show that their level of player makes less than 1 birdie a round

 

Sure you have your days where you make 2 to 4 but those are outliers 

 

If you want to break 80 simply keep your ball in play off the tee and hit your approach shots solid

9 pars, 8 bogeys, 1 birdie 

You shoot under 80

 

Where players lose shots the most in my opinion is on Par 5s and Par 3s 

If you want to break 80, then between these 8 holes you need to play them +2 

Par 5s, 3/4 GIR, ... one birdie, one bogey

Par 3s, 1/4 GIR, 2 pars and two bogey

Many players put themselves out of position on par 5s by hitting long clubs they are not good with at tight targets

Many players put themselves out of position by not taking enough club on Par 3s or taking on too much risk on their target

 

computer is about to die, will continue later

 

                         

[RoyalMustang]

12 hours ago, ac6 said:

 

Going for it at 510-520 probably means something like 270 off the tee and a 240 3W approach? That's plenty long at most any course you can think of especially if the guy never gets in trouble. Hell, Bernhard Langer just won the Senior Open on a 7200 yard track and he's averaging less than 270 this season. 

 

my (previous) club champ is like that; D1 in college, 30 years old now and I am 30-50 yards past him on most every drive. The guy is flat-out accurate though. First time I played with him he shot 68 on a 74.5/145 course. 

 

More than one way to skin a cat. Being shorter off the tee may not help me as I would then need to be as accurate with my 7i as I am with my PW. 

[RacineBoxer]

6 minutes ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

my (previous) club champ is like that; D1 in college, 30 years old now and I am 30-50 yards past him on most every drive. The guy is flat-out accurate though. First time I played with him he shot 68 on a 74.5/145 course. 

 

More than one way to skin a cat. Being shorter off the tee may not help me as I would then need to be as accurate with my 7i as I am with my PW. 

 

My handicap has hovered between 4-6 the past few years. I break 80 quite a few times per year. Based on what I'm reading in this thread, and if you want to break 80 on a regular basis, your #1 priority might need to be having 0 lost balls or drops per round. I do that regularly. Not saying you need to be able to play 10 rounds in a row with 0 drops but try to get your average round to have 0 penalty strokes. Probably would take some more dedicated driver practice to keep bringing in your left-right dispersion a little bit, minimizing the really wild shots. I'm a fan of hitting driver as often as possible but you have to control it. Maybe some course management work would help too, specifically, your aim points off the tee. It's not uncommon for me to aim at the rough because of trouble/OB on the other side (i.e. Scott Fawcett/Decade's approach to picking targets off the tee). I have holes on my home course where being 15 yards left of the fairway is just fine, even if there's a small tree near me, because I can almost always get it on the green from 80-110 whereas anything right is dead. 

 

I'm under 50% on GIR. I can shoot 76-78 and there is no way I have 9 birdie putts of <20 feet. So again, it's the penalty shots that must be killing your scores. 

[RacineBoxer]

Here's another stat that might resonate:

 

[SNIPERBBB]

19 minutes ago, RacineBoxer said:

Here's another stat that might resonate:

 

As Yoda says, Do or Do Not, There is No Try.

 

Better players dont have to try to make birdie...we just do. We just give ourselves more opportunities to do so. An 18 is barely hitting any greens, they barely hit the par 5s in 3. cant make birdies from the trees or after a penalty.

Scratch players dont give up par. When par is unlikely, you dont bring double into play. If an 18 can at least have a putt at par on every hole, he'll not be an 18 much longer.

[nitram]

4 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

my (previous) club champ is like that; D1 in college, 30 years old now and I am 30-50 yards past him on most every drive. The guy is flat-out accurate though. First time I played with him he shot 68 on a 74.5/145 course. 

 

More than one way to skin a cat. Being shorter off the tee may not help me as I would then need to be as accurate with my 7i as I am with my PW. 

 

For some reason Bernhard Langer's performance in this year's US Senior Open comes to mind.

[MountainKing]

4 hours ago, RacineBoxer said:

Here's another stat that might resonate:

 

 

The problem on this forum is so many guys want to do it the sexy way instead of the logical way. Even for a scratch golfer, birdies can be hard to come by or make.   If you're a 5/6 handicap, in a flighted event, most winners will be over par, meaning you need zero birdies in a round to compete.  What will get you a win is a lot of pars with no big numbers on the card.

[bladehunter]

1 hour ago, MountainKing said:

 

The problem on this forum is so many guys want to do it the sexy way instead of the logical way. Even for a scratch golfer, birdies can be hard to come by or make.   If you're a 5/6 handicap, in a flighted event, most winners will be over par, meaning you need zero birdies in a round to compete.  What will get you a win is a lot of pars with no big numbers on the card.

Absolutely true. It’s All about context .  But what do you do if you’re a 0 to +2 ?  18 pars won’t usually win.  Not even in a flighted event.  Definitely not in a net event.     
 

it gets really hard once your path to improvement IS more birdies.  18 handicaps or even 6 handicaps don’t need to try to do what pros do.  But at a certain point you really don’t have a choice .  It’s that or plateau … 

[msg]

 

A good Tweet from Lou Stagner.

 

https://twitter.com/LouStagner/status/1677313285316542466?s=20

Edited July 7, 2023 by msg

[dsmil]

I’m a 6 but my course is easier than yours. I probably get 3-4 birdie putts under 20 feet per round (1 birdie), another 3-4 from outside 20 feet, and I’ll get up and down a couple of times per round.