How Far Is This Hole Playing Today?

[ProV1Killa]

2 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

It's casual math. Just like breathing

That casual math is what bit me in the keester.  Rough guess told me two clubs.  Walk to the tee box changed that to 2.5 clubs. Next rough guess told me I was okay at 140.  Over the ball the reasoning side of my brain tapped me on the shoulder, hey dumb dumb if you hit that club hard enough spin will take another 5 to 10 off.

 

This all could have been avoided if I just got the trusty abacus out, taken accurate wind measurements and did the math before walking to the box.

[ThinkingPlus]

1 minute ago, st1800e said:

Do you carry and use a wind velocity gauge with you when playing? 

Of course not. I memorize the wind forecast as a function of hour for where I'm playing. I then use real-time feedback on shots I hit to fine tune as the round proceeds.

[st1800e]

Just now, ThinkingPlus said:

Of course not. I memorize the wind forecast as a function of hour for where I'm playing. I then use real-time feedback on shots I hit to fine tune as the round proceeds.

And what if its gusting 15-30?   

[ProV1Killa]

11 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

I prefer deterministic approaches rather than heuristic ones.

You just have to be cautious.  If the marshall catches you doodling ven diagrams their gonna put you on the clock.

[ProV1Killa]

11 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

I prefer deterministic approaches rather than heuristic ones.

You just have to be cautious.  If the marshall catches you doodling ven diagrams their gonna put you on the clock.

[b.mattay]

25 minutes ago, st1800e said:

Is that you Bryson?

Hahahaha that's funny! When you get access to a launch monitor at a sim all winter, you find out your average spin rates for full shots and off-speed 😉 shots

[ThinkingPlus]

Just now, st1800e said:

And what if its gusting 15-30?   

Gusting winds are difficult. You use the forecast, add some margin, flight everything down to minimize variability, and play conservatively. 

[ThinkingPlus]

2 minutes ago, ProV1Killa said:

You just have to be cautious.  If the marshall catches you doodling ven diagrams their gonna put you on the clock.

Doodling...LOL!

[st1800e]

4 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

You use the forecast, add some margin, flight everything down to minimize variability, and play conservatively. 

So, some non math judgement is appropriate?  

[st1800e]

6 minutes ago, b.mattay said:

When you get access to a launch monitor at a sim all winter, you find out your average spin rates for full shots and off-speed 😉 shots

Thanks, but I've never found hitting off mats, sometimes worn out/thin, in the winter replicates my swing and results outdoors off grass.  

[ThinkingPlus]

5 minutes ago, st1800e said:

So, some non math judgement is appropriate?  

Only in the sense that you are trying to flight down a certain club to hit the chosen effective yardage and your target line is chosen with more margin for trouble.

[st1800e]

8 minutes ago, ThinkingPlus said:

Only in the sense that you are trying to flight down a certain club to hit the chosen effective yardage and your target line is chosen with more margin for trouble.

So it's not "always math"?

[ThinkingPlus]

3 minutes ago, st1800e said:

So it's not "always math"?

No it's always math. 

[Soloman1]

Those challenged by arithmetic can can use their fingers with this “Clubbing for Dummies” method.

 

Add one club for every 5 MPH of headwind.

 

Most people are always, relentlessly, unwaveringly short anyway. That’s why they put bunkers short and right of greens.

 

[Ferguson]

No idea, but our club did it's 5th annual fall birdbox challenge last weekend.   Players sign up, pay five bucks and attempt to play a par-3 as the birdbox challenge in the fewest strokes.

[jholz]

This question is a fun mental exercise. My answer was "175 Yards" assuming a dead flat hole.

 

But honestly, I never play golf this way. If I did. I would end up hitting a poor shot. 

 

I75 is a vanilla no effort 5i for me. (I'm old). But, hitting a vanilla, no effort shot into a wind like that is simply foolish. So, I need something punchy, low.

 

A punchy low 5i doesn't go 175 for me. Particularly into a headwind. Clearly I need more club.

 

So, it's gotta be:

 

"Punched, 3/4 4h (that will most likely come out slightly hooded, and will have nice roll-out) that I hope doesn't go through the green."

 

Interestingly, that's a 180 shot for me.

 

So, as usual, @ThinkingPlus is probably close to the truth. 

 

Either way, I anticipate (pray) I'm walking off that green with a bogey...😁   

[dugue4]

14 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

It's casual math. Just like breathing...

Casual math is my new favorite term.

[smashdn]

20 hours ago, ProV1Killa said:

146 yard par 3 with the following conditions:

 

Temp = 52

Constant wind estimated = 18 - 20 MPH.

Wind gusts = about 25 - 30 MPH

 

The hole played directly into the constant wind.  When gusts kicked up it varied from a headwind to slightly quartering out of the right.  Trees line both sides creating a funnel so there is no way to get out of the wind.

 

What would estimate the carry adjustment at?

 

Didn't look at any previous responses so here is my go at it.

 

• 146 is playing a hard nine or soft eight (buh duh dump) for me currently.
• Temp is going to knock me down about 3/4 club so call it a full one by the time you factor in clothes. So know talking about a seven iron.
• I hear that every 10 mph results in one extra club for a headwind and a tailwind every 12-15 is an extra club (more "negative" impact with head wind than "help" with a tailwind) so with a steady 20 I am looking at a five iron - provided I can get a shot off without a gust.  I suppose I would decide between a five and four (typically a 8-10 yard difference between those clubs but my five is much more reliable for me) based upon whether there is trouble beyond or in front of the green.  (ie, Would I rather be long or come up short with a miss?)

 

Put me down for a five iron I suppose.  I think I can flight that club down and get it on the front edge and keep it on.

[Pepperturbo]

16 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

I prefer deterministic approaches rather than heuristic ones. Considering wind as  "1-club" or "2-club" wind for all distances doesn't conform to physical reality.

Agree. 

 

I play in wind often.  Between SOCAL, S.A. winds and the trades in Hawaii, winds might have me hitting as much as 3–4 more clubs.  There is No simple answer for club choice in wind. 

 

Successful wind play has a great deal to do with a person's ability to still strike the ball purely while controlling ball flight with punch & stinger swings to cheat the wind.

 

Into the wind on a 146 yd Par 3, 52' temp, and 18-20mph winds, I might hit a punch 5i or 4i, depending on gusts.

Edited October 16, 2023 by Pepperturbo

[smashdn]

17 hours ago, ThinkingPlus said:

In fact, although very OT, there are some who feel that nothing exists, but mathematics. 

 

Heard it said that biology is chemistry.  Chemistry is physics.  And physics is math.

[j.b.newton]

An older gentleman I used to play with had this VERY mathematical rationale:

Feel it but can't hear it - 1 club

Hear it but no trouble standing - 2 clubs

Trouble standing - move directly to the 19th hole.

 

[ThinkingPlus]

41 minutes ago, smashdn said:

 

Heard it said that biology is chemistry.  Chemistry is physics.  And physics is math.

Kind of. Math is the language of science whether it's biology, chemistry, or physics. Math makes physics possible. Physics gives math purpose and motivation.

[Springsteennut]

22 hours ago, tatertot said:

No elevation change? Pin in the middle? Short is better than long?

 

I'm playing a 170 club.

 

 

Same here. 

[dugue4]

17 hours ago, smashdn said:

 

Heard it said that biology is chemistry.  Chemistry is physics.  And physics is math.

Physics is applied math

[j.b.newton]

Wonder how Bryson would answer this question....  Did you provide relative humidity as well as atmospheric pressure?

[nitram]

On 10/15/2023 at 10:25 PM, st1800e said:

Do you carry and use a wind velocity gauge with you when playing? 

With a little practice you can become quite adept in judging wind speed by looking at the leaves on the trees, the flags, smoke, and effects on others golf shots. There is no substitute for practicing/playing in these conditions.

[nitram]

On 10/15/2023 at 10:34 PM, ThinkingPlus said:

Gusting winds are difficult. You use the forecast, add some margin, flight everything down to minimize variability, and play conservatively. 

Well stated!!

 

Gusts are the most difficult part of playing in the wind and the number one reason to learn to flight your ball. When it's gusty, just aim for the center of the green. And quite honestly, anything on the green should be considered a good shot.

[jholz]

I'm always happy to see a word like "hueristic" used properly and in the wild. 

 

If anyone wants to join my "wordwatching" group, we meet up at 8:30 on Sundays.

 

 

[TiScape]

On 10/16/2023 at 8:04 AM, dugue4 said:

Casual math is my new favorite term.

Casual math for me more like

[dugue4]

5 minutes ago, TiScape said:

Casual math for me more like

Samantha ate 10 cookies.  She should have shared as eating that many cookies is not good for you.