Target # of "makeable" birdie putt chances/round for a 6 cap? Of those, how many do you make under 20 feet?

[RoyalMustang]

In my "quest to break 80" thread, someone brought up a good measure of success is "how many legit birdie chances do you get per round?" That poster described it as anything under 20 feet in general, which makes sense. Anything beyond 20 feet has a much lower chance of going in.

 

That begs the question: what should my target be? I am a 5.9 index playing a 73.5/135 course at 7,000 yards. 

 

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt. I made 2/9 putts: one was a gimmie from 2 feet and the other was a 14-footer. I missed 3 others by a centimeter or less. 

 

For a roughly 6 cap, what does good look like for birdie chances inside of 20 feet per round? Put it another way, how many "low stress" pars would indicate that I am moving in the right direction? 

 

 

[klebs01]

That seems like a lot better than a 6 hc level. But I don’t have any data to compare.
 

Average proximity on tour from 150 is about 25 ft and they average about 2 putts from there. 
 

50% make rate on tour is 8 ft. Not sure anything within 20 ft is a realistic birdie opportunity. 

[RoyalMustang]

33 minutes ago, klebs01 said:

That seems like a lot better than a 6 hc level. But I don’t have any data to compare.
 

Average proximity on tour from 150 is about 25 ft and they average about 2 putts from there. 
 

50% make rate on tour is 8 ft. Not sure anything within 20 ft is a realistic birdie opportunity. 

 

I always take those tour make-rate stats with a grain of salt: I figure their greens are much quicker and more difficult to read than the typical private course. Maybe their make rate is 65-70% on greens like these? I have no idea really! 

[vandyfan]

I am 6 hdcp so I will toss in some data from my last few rounds (if it is helpful?):

 

7/4/2023 - Birdie Chances - 5 - 15ft(x), 7ft(Y), 4ft(Y), 17ft(x), 19ft(x)
7/1/2023 - Birdie Chances - 2 - 16ft(x), 18ft(x)
6/19/2023 - Birdie Chances - 6 - 18ft(x), 17ft(x), 15ft(x), 11ft(x), 13ft(x), 3ft(Y), 9ft (Y)

6/18/2023 - Birdie Chances - 7 - 14ft(x), 18ft(x), 10ft(x), 19ft(x), 13ft(Y), 15ft(x), 10ft(x)

6/12/2023 - Birdie Chances - 5 - 16ft(x), 18ft(x), 15ft(x), 14ft(x), 12ft(x) 

 

So my average is about 5 but I also just don't make many birdies. I find I have a LOT of birdie looks from 25 ft - 40 ft. Pretty much never make those and I would say I 3 putt those more than I make them. 

[naval2006]

I play that hdc too. On a very good day I’ll have 7/8 birdie chances, 3 or 4 under 20 feet. On an a decent round I’ll be putting for birdie from under 20 feet twice. I make average 1 birdie per round. Most birdies this year: 4. Last round I played very well with zero birds. 

[TwistedSister]

2 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

In my "quest to break 80" thread, someone brought up a good measure of success is "how many legit birdie chances do you get per round?" That poster described it as anything under 20 feet in general, which makes sense. Anything beyond 20 feet has a much lower chance of going in.

 

That begs the question: what should my target be? I am a 5.9 index playing a 73.5/135 course at 7,000 yards. 

 

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt. I made 2/9 putts: one was a gimmie from 2 feet and the other was a 14-footer. I missed 3 others by a centimeter or less. 

 

For a roughly 6 cap, what does good look like for birdie chances inside of 20 feet per round? Put it another way, how many "low stress" pars would indicate that I am moving in the right direction? 

 

 

What course are you playing that with a 5.9 index you have not broken 80?

[RoyalMustang]

1 hour ago, vandyfan said:

I am 6 hdcp so I will toss in some data from my last few rounds (if it is helpful?):

 

7/4/2023 - Birdie Chances - 5 - 15ft(x), 7ft(Y), 4ft(Y), 17ft(x), 19ft(x)
7/1/2023 - Birdie Chances - 2 - 16ft(x), 18ft(x)
6/19/2023 - Birdie Chances - 6 - 18ft(x), 17ft(x), 15ft(x), 11ft(x), 13ft(x), 3ft(Y), 9ft (Y)

6/18/2023 - Birdie Chances - 7 - 14ft(x), 18ft(x), 10ft(x), 19ft(x), 13ft(Y), 15ft(x), 10ft(x)

6/12/2023 - Birdie Chances - 5 - 16ft(x), 18ft(x), 15ft(x), 14ft(x), 12ft(x) 

 

So my average is about 5 but I also just don't make many birdies. I find I have a LOT of birdie looks from 25 ft - 40 ft. Pretty much never make those and I would say I 3 putt those more than I make them. 

 

Definitely helpful! 

 

This would be a really useful stat if we could aggregate data from a large source of players/handicaps/ratings/slopes. 

[SUPERG]

18 minutes ago, TwistedSister said:

What course are you playing that with a 5.9 index you have not broken 80?

Lol I was thinking the same, anybody 8 or below has at least broken it a few times even if it just 79's 

[RoyalMustang]

19 minutes ago, TwistedSister said:

What course are you playing that with a 5.9 index you have not broken 80?

 

Heritage Ranch north of Dallas. The course just has my number: I shot 80 yesterday with 2 OB balls, several lipped-out putts, and a 3-footer miss that I took too casually. 

[RoyalMustang]

1 minute ago, SUPERG said:

Lol I was thinking the same, anybody 8 or below has at least broken it a few times even if it just 79's 

 

Yeah, it's just my home course. I've broken 80 at least 10 times on easier courses; it's more of a quest to tighten up my game on my home course and get under 80, as it sure seems sandbagged for the rating and also has some pretty unique challenges. 

[Jayjay_theweim_guy]

3 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt.

Judging by this WRX article, that's outstanding ballstriking for a 5.9.  Hell, for a scratch.  The article points out that 9 GIR, not GIR with a <20' putt for birdie, is for someone who averages 75-79.  Which isn't a 5.9, right? 

 

From 20', we'd expect 15% 1-putts from the Pro.  From 10' it's 40% for them, 1/3 for the scratches.  When reading your story, I was guessing 2/9 to 3/9 makes, given the 10-11' average distance.  I wouldn't expect more than 3, 4 on an amazing putting day.  2 on a meh day.  Which appears to be what happened.

 

Birdies are hard to get.

[klebs01]

3 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

I always take those tour make-rate stats with a grain of salt: I figure their greens are much quicker and more difficult to read than the typical private course. Maybe their make rate is 65-70% on greens like these? I have no idea really! 

Remember, the tour is an entertainment product and they don’t want to show pros missing short putts. While the pins are tucked, they generally have them in areas that are very flat for at least a 3 ft radius. The make percentage may actually go down on courses with more imperfections or pins on greater slopes. 

 

the US open is clearly different than normal tour stops. 

[RoyalMustang]

44 minutes ago, Jayjay_theweim_guy said:

Judging by this WRX article, that's outstanding ballstriking for a 5.9.  Hell, for a scratch.  The article points out that 9 GIR, not GIR with a <20' putt for birdie, is for someone who averages 75-79.  Which isn't a 5.9, right? 

 

From 20', we'd expect 15% 1-putts from the Pro.  From 10' it's 40% for them, 1/3 for the scratches.  When reading your story, I was guessing 2/9 to 3/9 makes, given the 10-11' average distance.  I wouldn't expect more than 3, 4 on an amazing putting day.  2 on a meh day.  Which appears to be what happened.

 

Birdies are hard to get.

 

Good perspective: I'm on the right track then. And yes, they are hard to get! I was kicking myself for missing so many putts yesterday but perhaps it wasn't that bad. I usually play with 15-20 cap friends; this course is in a 55+ community so there aren't a lot of golfers my age (45) who play in the evenings. Basically zero! 

[LimaSierra]

5 hours ago, klebs01 said:

That seems like a lot better than a 6 hc level. But I don’t have any data to compare.
 

Average proximity on tour from 150 is about 25 ft and they average about 2 putts from there. 
 

50% make rate on tour is 8 ft. Not sure anything within 20 ft is a realistic birdie opportunity. 

I was the poster who made that comment. What I meant was for me (+ handicap) anything inside 20 feet going in isnt “crazy”. Like if I roll in a 55 footer, that was luck as much as skill. 
 

20 feet seems like good metric where making it is not uncommon

[LimaSierra]

5 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

In my "quest to break 80" thread, someone brought up a good measure of success is "how many legit birdie chances do you get per round?" That poster described it as anything under 20 feet in general, which makes sense. Anything beyond 20 feet has a much lower chance of going in.

 

That begs the question: what should my target be? I am a 5.9 index playing a 73.5/135 course at 7,000 yards. 

 

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt. I made 2/9 putts: one was a gimmie from 2 feet and the other was a 14-footer. I missed 3 others by a centimeter or less. 

 

For a roughly 6 cap, what does good look like for birdie chances inside of 20 feet per round? Put it another way, how many "low stress" pars would indicate that I am moving in the right direction? 

 

 

I wonder what genius made that comment 😂 

 

for a 6 handicap I’d say 5-6 birdie putts are a good measure for 18 rounds. Aim for about 9 stress free pars as well 

[Jc0]

I would ask less why you didn't make more putts and more why you were +10 for the other 9 holes. I'm scratch and a normal round is 12ish greens 2-4 birdes. Breaking 80 is less making a lot of birdes and more making sure mistakes stay pars and big mistakes stay bogeys. 

[klebs01]

1 hour ago, LimaSierra said:

I was the poster who made that comment. What I meant was for me (+ handicap) anything inside 20 feet going in isnt “crazy”. Like if I roll in a 55 footer, that was luck as much as skill. 
 

20 feet seems like good metric where making it is not uncommon

i see your point. The other side is expectation management. When I was young (before strokes gained existed) I thought I needed to be 50%+ on 20 footers like what I saw on tv. I would get frustrated when I didn’t make them. That was counterproductive. Understanding the actual make rate for pros helped me manage expectations and be happy with lots of stress free two putt pars. 

[GoTime]

7 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

In my "quest to break 80" thread, someone brought up a good measure of success is "how many legit birdie chances do you get per round?" That poster described it as anything under 20 feet in general, which makes sense. Anything beyond 20 feet has a much lower chance of going in.

 

That begs the question: what should my target be? I am a 5.9 index playing a 73.5/135 course at 7,000 yards. 

 

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt. I made 2/9 putts: one was a gimmie from 2 feet and the other was a 14-footer. I missed 3 others by a centimeter or less. 

 

For a roughly 6 cap, what does good look like for birdie chances inside of 20 feet per round? Put it another way, how many "low stress" pars would indicate that I am moving in the right direction? 

 

 

 

6 handicap on average, on an average course should hit around 8-9 greens a round. So I would guess maybe 3-4 of those are under 20 feet, make probably 1 on average per round over the course of a season.

 

If you're a 6 handicap with 9 birdie putts under 20' per round there's some other gaping hole in your game. That's scratch+ territory.

[DaveMc82]

10 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

I always take those tour make-rate stats with a grain of salt: I figure their greens are much quicker and more difficult to read than the typical private course. Maybe their make rate is 65-70% on greens like these? I have no idea really! 

Yeah and no. 
 

What they don’t have is green keeping staff putting out pins that don’t have a relatively flat area around them to allow you to stop it close. Although I (and most members) think our head green keeper is a complete (fill your own word in) who loves tormenting golfers, there are only X number of pin placements on each hole that make this possible. The rest of the positions have to be rotated in to prevent undue wear to specific areas of greens. Ours just chooses to almost never use the positions that conform to the guidance. 
 

Based on this, I do think some of the stats towards certain indexes are skewed when playing at clubs. You can have legitimate birdie chances that you either make or, have a nerve wrecker of a 5’ putt with 2 cups break back to make par. I think a lot more indexes remain artificially high due to putting because of this than is realized. 
 

 

[PracticeSwinger]

16 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

In my "quest to break 80" thread, someone brought up a good measure of success is "how many legit birdie chances do you get per round?" That poster described it as anything under 20 feet in general, which makes sense. Anything beyond 20 feet has a much lower chance of going in.

 

That begs the question: what should my target be? I am a 5.9 index playing a 73.5/135 course at 7,000 yards. 

 

For example, yesterday I had 9 birdie chances under 20 feet; total distance (roughly with stepping off) of 96 feet or 10.7 feet per attempt. I made 2/9 putts: one was a gimmie from 2 feet and the other was a 14-footer. I missed 3 others by a centimeter or less. 

 

For a roughly 6 cap, what does good look like for birdie chances inside of 20 feet per round? Put it another way, how many "low stress" pars would indicate that I am moving in the right direction? 

 

 

I hover around that cap-ish at times. My breakdown : 1 birdie putt inside 8ft, 2 is at 12ft, 3 is at 15ft, 4 is at 21ft, 5 is at 27ft and I get 8 'chances' on average. As a previous poster alluded to, breaking 80 (on that course) has more to do with lowering those penalty, recovery, missed chips shots rather than magically begining to sink 18 footers in my opinion. 

[Sean124]

13 hours ago, RoyalMustang said:

 

Heritage Ranch north of Dallas. The course just has my number: I shot 80 yesterday with 2 OB balls, several lipped-out putts, and a 3-footer miss that I took too casually. 

I’d be wondering how I could have kept the ball in bounds to shoot 76 if I had 9 birdie chances inside 20 feet. 
 

Some days the putts will drop and you’ll go low. Consistently shooting in the 70s is about not making doubles. 

[vandyfan]

15 hours ago, SUPERG said:

Lol I was thinking the same, anybody 8 or below has at least broken it a few times even if it just 79's 

he did point out that the course is 73.5/135 at 7,000 yds which is no joke. As a fellow 6 hdcp, you won’t ever see me playing anything beyond 6,600 yds. I think my course handicap from those tees would be 9-10.

Edited July 6, 2023 by vandyfan

[RoyalMustang]

6 hours ago, DaveMc82 said:

Yeah and no. 
 

What they don’t have is green keeping staff putting out pins that don’t have a relatively flat area around them to allow you to stop it close. Although I (and most members) think our head green keeper is a complete (fill your own word in) who loves tormenting golfers, there are only X number of pin placements on each hole that make this possible. The rest of the positions have to be rotated in to prevent undue wear to specific areas of greens. Ours just chooses to almost never use the positions that conform to the guidance. 
 

Based on this, I do think some of the stats towards certain indexes are skewed when playing at clubs. You can have legitimate birdie chances that you either make or, have a nerve wrecker of a 5’ putt with 2 cups break back to make par. I think a lot more indexes remain artificially high due to putting because of this than is realized. 
 

 

 

I can testify to that fact! A 5-foot putt is either a 1 or 3 due to a terrible pin placement. I've seen that plenty of times. 

[RoyalMustang]

1 hour ago, Sean124 said:

I’d be wondering how I could have kept the ball in bounds to shoot 76 if I had 9 birdie chances inside 20 feet. 
 

Some days the putts will drop and you’ll go low. Consistently shooting in the 70s is about not making doubles. 

 

It's always a couple of "too quick" swings: believe me, I'm working on it. Doubles hurt: a triple on the easiest hole is worse!  When I just step up and swing, I'm asking for something bad to happen. I wish I was a feel player but I am not. 

[MelloYello]

You might do some experimenting. 

 

Play the course from the forward tees putting a 5w or 4i in play and see how your scoring goes. If you shoot a good number by virtue of not hitting it OB you'll have identified your real weakness. 

 

As others have said, it just sounds to me like the difficulty and overall length of your home course is more than you can handle over 18 holes. You can't be making big mistakes off the tee. I'd be very interested to hear what you shot from the Senior tees for instance, especially if you took driver out of your bag for that round. 

 

 

Fwiw, I love playing off the red tees at my home course as a way to mix it up. Sometimes I'll limit my tee shots, and sometimes I won't. I remember Sean Foley saying he'd make his younger students play similar games. They'd do irons-only off the back tees making things really hard. And they'd also do stuff like "miss-em-all" where you purposefully miss all 18 greens. If you're playing a lot, it's important to challenge yourself in creative ways to expose your weaknesses. 

 

 

 

.

Edited July 6, 2023 by MelloYello

[SNIPERBBB]

Easy answer is how many times do you have wedge in hand for a GIR? If you've got any touch at all you should half at least half of those as birdie looks. 

 

Short irons maybe a third. 

[Roejye]

The round you posted was a heck of a round, if that's a normal round for you, it seems like you're dropping a lot of strokes somewhere. Of those birdie chances you missed, how did you score? I would assume a lot were relatively stress free pars, if not, that's something to look into. I think just cleaning up those other areas that are hurting you would help more. I've seen a lot of threads on various forums about "why/how do I sink more putts from 15,20,x feet?" Then they go and post their averages and those are actually pretty good. It's a matter of realistic expectations and some luck (those putts you missed by centimeters for example), and taking a hard look at your game.

[PracticeSwinger]

1 hour ago, MelloYello said:

You might do some experimenting. 

 

Play the course from the forward tees putting a 5w or 4i in play and see how your scoring goes. If you shoot a good number by virtue of not hitting it OB you'll have identified your real weakness. 

 

As others have said, it just sounds to me like the difficulty and overall length of your home course is more than you can handle over 18 holes. You can't be making big mistakes off the tee. I'd be very interested to hear what you shot from the Senior tees for instance, especially if you took driver out of your bag for that round. 

 

 

Fwiw, I love playing off the red tees at my home course as a way to mix it up. Sometimes I'll limit my tee shots, and sometimes I won't. I remember Sean Foley saying he'd make his younger students play similar games. They'd do irons-only off the back tees making things really hard. And they'd also do stuff like "miss-em-all" where you purposefully miss all 18 greens. If you're playing a lot, it's important to challenge yourself in creative ways to expose your weaknesses. 

 

 

 

.

Great call - anectodal but did that experiment at a course I play from time to time; 900 yards less, using driver on only 8 holes and shot 71 while my scoring average is usually 78ish there - says a lot.

[phizzy30]

I'm a 4.5 index atm.  I usually have about 7 realistic chances of birdies that are 20 feet or less per round.  Out of those I'm happy if I make at least two.  Played at my home course(South Hills CC) yesterday and made two birdies and shot 76 yesterday.  Just a little insight for you OP as we are similar handicaps. 

[RoyalMustang]

2 hours ago, phizzy30 said:

I'm a 4.5 index atm.  I usually have about 7 realistic chances of birdies that are 20 feet or less per round.  Out of those I'm happy if I make at least two.  Played at my home course(South Hills CC) yesterday and made two birdies and shot 76 yesterday.  Just a little insight for you OP as we are similar handicaps. 

 

It sounds like golfing is like running a business; sure, everyone wants that next "big product" and birdie/eagle opportunity, but much of the value creation is in minimizing errors; high cost of production, dead assets/inventory, lack of supply chain discipline (the double/triple/snowman scores) when you have an otherwise decent game.