Risk Tolerance vs Risk Avoidance...

[SNIPERBBB]

Most course management systems tend to be long on talking about risk avoidance but not a lot gets talked about risk tolerance.

 

There isnt such a thing as 0% risk on the course, though there are things on a hole that might have a  risk of  100% or very close to 0% but there's rarely a shot that has 0% total risk.

I think some guys get a bit too paralyzed when theres any kind of risk involved on a shot.

 

 

So how much risk on a shot are you willing to suffer? When I'm playing well, I certainly entertain more risk. Not so much when not playing my best.  And darn the torpedoes when I'm playing bad.

[Sp4zRX]

My understanding, with modern day strokes gained statistics, is most amateurs don’t take enough risk. @iacas has a whole book on this, Lowest Score Wins, and I’m sure he will tell you the same thing but I will leave that to him as I only have a basic understanding and I would consider him an expert in this category. 

[ShortGolfer]

A high risk shot for me is through a tree.  The plus side is I know I'll make good ball contact.  

 

Ending up in a bunker isn't any worse than any other miss that doesn't stay on the green. 

For some reason bunkers don't collect leaves they can be safe havens when there are a lot of leaves on the ground.

The ground crew has done their last mow of the season so the leaf situation is likely to be difficult for the rest of the season.

Edited December 2, 2023 by ShortGolfer

[Sp4zRX]

11 minutes ago, ShortGolfer said:

Ending up in a bunker isn't any worse than any other miss that doesn't stay on the green. 

For some reason bunkers don't collect leaves they can be safe havens when there are a lot of leaves on the ground.

The ground crew has done their last mow of the season so the leaf situation is likely to be difficult for the rest of the season.

I don’t understand people that panic over green side bunkers. I mean, they are GREEN SIDE bunkers. You are right next to the green when you miss and go in one. I see that as a pretty good miss. 

[iacas]

2 hours ago, SNIPERBBB said:

So how much risk on a shot are you willing to suffer? When I'm playing well, I certainly entertain more risk. Not so much when not playing my best.  And darn the torpedoes when I'm playing bad.

 

I think you'd have a hard time quantifying exactly what "risk" percentage you're at, and those have to be considered versus the reward, too.

 

We talk about "Shades of Grey" and you could map those to different percentages, somewhat, but… since your Shot Zone is likely going to cover multiple shades, it's basically a weighted average.

 

Is it the first hole and you're just getting your round going? Probably more risk averse. Is it the 18th and you need a birdie to tie? Probably less risk averse, and more willing to include some dark shades in your target+dispersion (Shot Zone).

 

58 minutes ago, ShortGolfer said:

Ending up in a bunker isn't any worse than any other miss that doesn't stay on the green. 

 

Statistically, golfers are lousy out of bunkers. A miss in a bunker is worse for almost all golfers. Plus, we don't play PGA Tour bunkers, where everything is the same not even hole to hole, but week to week, or very nearly the same.

[ShortGolfer]

7 minutes ago, iacas said:

Statistically, golfers are lousy out of bunkers. A miss in a bunker is worse for almost all golfers. Plus, we don't play PGA Tour bunkers, where everything is the same not even hole to hole, but week to week, or very nearly the same.

That is what I observe.  I'd had a random partner tell me it was OK to toss it out of the bunker.

But, I've always been a good bunker player, as my natural shot was/is ideal for hitting it out of bunker  A high fade that is a little fat.

I also play on a course that is just above a lake with plenty of rain so I'm dealing with lush thick grass around the green  Great if you ball is sitting on top of it.

[SNIPERBBB]

1 hour ago, Sp4zRX said:

I don’t understand people that panic over green side bunkers. I mean, they are GREEN SIDE bunkers. You are right next to the green when you miss and go in one. I see that as a pretty good miss. 

Green side bunkers suck in a lot a places. They are extremely expensive if you use a machine or a labor intensive to maintain if you dont have one. Our course has just eliminated all but 2 or three of its bunkers and turned them into grass bunkers. Hard pan bunkers are even worse for suckitude next to greens.

[nitram]

Avoid risk when you have that option and knowing your tendencies is key to making informed/successful decisions. However, when you can't avoid risk, how much tolerance do you have? Take water for example. How much vertical tolerance do you have for water between you and the green, and the pin is say 8 paces on from the water and the green is 30 yards deep? 5, 10, 20, 30 yards? Compound that with how much horizontal tolerance you have, say if the water is on the left and the pin is 5 off the left edge on a 25 yard wide green. Again, how much tolerance do YOU have? 5, 10, 20 yards?

 

 

[otto6457]

I'm a DECADE guy so I don't even think about it.  I just do what I'm told.  I'm a simple man with a simple brain and golf is hard.

 

My simple man opinion is that taking on risk or avoiding risk, ignores the fact that with either approach you are playing with a certain amount of dispersion, and that dispersion pattern is pretty big even for the best players on the planet.  I know for a fact I don't hit it as well as those guys, so I just do what I'm told and add up the score at the end.

[Ri_Redneck]

I tend to assess risks by the chance of successful escape. For instance, water provides no escape, so it's the worst. Trees can be a problem just by being in the way, but it's typically the amount of undergrowth that is the deciding factor. A clean lie in large trees is many times not a problem because the trees are farther apart and taller. Tall grass or rough poses more a problem as it gets thicker. US Open type rough can easily cost a stroke (or two) even if you are just out of the fairway. Finally, with bunkers, it's the design that matters. Deep bunkers with huge lips towards the hole are tough for any player. Greenside, the slope almost always goes away the player making stopping the ball difficult. In the fairway, the lip can block any chance of advancing the ball near the green and thus saving par. 

 

In a nut shell, you need to KNOW the hazards of the course your playing to make an intelligent decision for your shots. A low risk hazard takes a completely different approach than as high risk hazard.

 

BT

[st1800e]

Risk is a combination of 2 things. Probability and consequence.  
 

what’s better , high probability and mild consequence or low probability and disastrous consequence ? 

 

[bortass]

How much does the score matter and why is what I use to drive taking on risk. It comes down to 'what's in it for me?' I will be more conservative if I am trying to shoot a good score. A round that I either can't post for HDCP or one where the wheels have already come off the bus, my risk tolerance increases. Pretty much boils down to do I accept that the bad outcome is okay? ROI matters.

 

I also believe we need to take on risk as part of the process of improvement. It's what will lead to trying a shot to see if you can do it or not. Every player is at a different point on the spectrum of where their game is today versus where it could be which drives this part of the equation. One can play safe, all the time every time, but then how much will your game grow? I'm not insinuating that those of us with room to improve, and actually want to, should be out there trying risky shots all the time, just that you need to push yourself to see what happens at times. You just can't care if the result is unfavorable.

 

@iacas brings up a great point about risk and the inability to quantify it. There is always a mathematically correct decision but it is not universal and it will vary by golfer(edit added this part to try to clarify better). Golf has too many variables to actually derive it for the average Joe playing though. We make decisions based on what we think the risk is but it's fuzzy. So we estimate the risk, sometimes quite poorly which is sub-optimal, but that's the nature of the game. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by bortass

[TLUBulldogGolf]

On 12/2/2023 at 5:31 PM, Sp4zRX said:

I don’t understand people that panic over green side bunkers. I mean, they are GREEN SIDE bunkers. You are right next to the green when you miss and go in one. I see that as a pretty good miss. 

 

Have you seen the average person play a bunker shot?

 

My answer to the topic is to generally avoid penalty shots and beyond that it depends on how much control I feel I have over the ball. If I don't feel like I know where it's going that day I'm going to play more conservatively. 

Edited December 4, 2023 by TLUBulldogGolf

[Sp4zRX]

3 minutes ago, TLUBulldogGolf said:

 

Have you seen the average person play a bunker shot?

Fair point. This discussion has made me reconsider my position.
 

I think my point of view is coming from more of a mental perspective than a statistical one. A mindset of acknowledging the bunker when considering your shot and likely misses but once the decision of the shot to be played is made, I just don’t even care about or think about the bunker. I just accept the consequences of my decision and there is a chance that I miss and go in the bunker. I know and accept that when I commit to the shot. I’m by no means a great bunker player but I can usually get out, two putt and take my bogey which anecdotally, over a small sample, is not much worse than if I miss somewhere else but I accept that statistically this is poor thinking. 

[TLUBulldogGolf]

1 minute ago, Sp4zRX said:

Fair point. This discussion has made me reconsider my position.
 

I think my point of view is coming from more of a mental perspective than a statistical one. A mindset of acknowledging the bunker when considering your shot and likely misses but once the decision of the shot to be played is made, I just don’t even care about or think about the bunker. I just accept the consequences of my decision and there is a chance that I miss and go in the bunker. I know and accept that when I commit to the shot. I’m by no means a great bunker player but I can usually get out, two putt and take my bogey which anecdotally, over a small sample, is not much worse than if I miss somewhere else but I accept that statistically this is poor thinking. 

 

I am not saying it should alter your specific calculus, though I would call myself a good bunker player and I generally don't want to be in them because it's a lower percentage up and down even with perfect sand. But there are situations where I'm fine with ending up in one, for example from out of trees where I don't really have the option of elevating the ball or going for a par 5, I'm trying to get it around the green and the bunker isn't going to bother me necessarily.

[ShortGolfer]

I've gone a step further and compared common wisdom against how I play in different situations, grinding through bad lies every week to understand the risks and rewards based on my skill set.

 

But, I used to be a speed chess player who knew how to change my game based on my opponent.  I wasn't someone who studied the books. 

 

[MelloYello]

There's no perfect method. We get better as we gain experience, skill and technique.

 

My big mistakes seem to come from one of the following:

 

Egregious swings

These would be swings that produce outcomes so bad that we ignore them. The results lay outside our anticipated dispersion areas. Shanks, chunks, tops, slices and wild pull-hooks are all examples. We can't strategize around these. We just have to show up with the technique & skill necessary to avoid them altogether. 

 

Poor Prep

This would include misjudging the wind or the elevation change, setting up with poor alignment, a lack of commitment to a shot-shape, etc. This is a lot of the mental stuff. When it's not mental it still classifies as basic. 

 

Being Too Aggressive and/or Not Taking Your Medicine 

I constantly have to remind myself that "I'll forget the bogeys but the doubles/triples will haunt me." This little saying really helps me be mindful that when I've made a mistake, I need to play safe and make sure that bogey doesn't become something worse. 

 

To be honest, bogey isn't really even that bad a score. More often than not, it's perfectly fine. Why we get so emotionally attached to par is a mystery. We'd probably do better if we talked about bogey-or-better as good and double-and-worse as bad. In my experience, we should all really respect bogey a bit more than we do. 

 

It's often very enticing to try and make up for a mistake with a high-risk recovery shot or an ill-advised pitch. I think a great deal of strategy focuses on avoiding common blunders for the simple fact that item #3 is the one area where we feel we "give away" shots during a round. Bad swings are one thing, but flirty with disaster all for the sake of trying to turn bogey into par feels stupid and it's problematic for scoring. 

 

 

 

As far as risk-tolerance, I think a lot of that ties to analyzing your scoring habits. As an example we can observe Par-5s where many amateurs are used to always laying up to "play it safe." At some point players have to learn to hit long approach shots with hybrids and fairway metals.

 

These long shots that can reach the green complex are the best way to improve one's scoring average because keeping a 5w in play enough to get up-and-down for birdie is ultimately going to be more reliable than laying up to 100-yds and trying to make birdie from there.

 

This may result in a temporary regression when failed attempts produce bogeys or doubles but in time players learn to adapt. Ultimately, players gain skill with long approaches and they start improving short game, too, at least to the point they're no worse off when being aggressive and going for the green. 

 

.

Edited December 4, 2023 by MelloYello

[MattC555]

Are you a Roy or are you a David?

 

Me?  Firmly in the Roy camp.

 

[iacas]

1 hour ago, bortass said:

@iacas brings up a great point about risk and the inability to quantify it. There is always a mathematically correct decision. Golf has too many variables to actually derive it for the average Joe playing though. We make decisions based on what we think the risk is but it's fuzzy. It's not clean cut like poker is. So we estimate the risk, sometimes quite poorly which is sub-optimal, but that's the nature of the game.

 

Everyone is going to have a slightly different risk/reward calculation. A few examples:

• I sometimes pull it into the left trees on the 9th hole at Whispering Woods. It leaves about a 110-yard shot uphill 30 feet and you have to hook it about 30 feet, too. I can hit that shot 9 times out of 10 given a four-foot window 25 yards ahead of me. The last time I hit it to the back rough and chipped in. I regularly hit the green from there. Most people should chip out almost sideways, though.
• Seventh hole, if you go too far right, you get a shot with the ball well above your feet. I can hit that shot pretty well too, while others freak out (including a guy I play with regularly) on that type of shot. Our math is different. I'm more likely to go for the green in two than he is - the aiming line is right edge or so, and so a pull is on the green but a push of that distance is on that slope. He's more likely to lay up and not mess with the slope.
• Everyone plays bunker shots differently. Elevated pitch shots. Even sidehill or downhill lies factor in to the risk with a shot. Some people love their 3W or 5W, some hate them off the fairway and use them off the tee only.

[Jayjay_theweim_guy]

On 12/2/2023 at 5:31 PM, Sp4zRX said:

I don’t understand people that panic over green side bunkers. I mean, they are GREEN SIDE bunkers. You are right next to the green when you miss and go in one. I see that as a pretty good miss. 

They're bad at sand play and finding a sand play practice area where they can improve is a bit of a PITA.  

 

Alternately, you're stuck in a truly hideous bunker, or the sand is like cement...

 

And on that note, Please, PLEASE don't walk around down my target line, with your head down, on the other side of the green if I'm in the sand.  It's really unnerving.  The skull injury you avoid could be your own....  

 

But otherwise, no; like you, and unlike Anakin, I like sand.

[bortass]

1 hour ago, iacas said:

 

Everyone is going to have a slightly different risk/reward calculation. A few examples:

• I sometimes pull it into the left trees on the 9th hole at Whispering Woods. It leaves about a 110-yard shot uphill 30 feet and you have to hook it about 30 feet, too. I can hit that shot 9 times out of 10 given a four-foot window 25 yards ahead of me. The last time I hit it to the back rough and chipped in. I regularly hit the green from there. Most people should chip out almost sideways, though.
• Seventh hole, if you go too far right, you get a shot with the ball well above your feet. I can hit that shot pretty well too, while others freak out (including a guy I play with regularly) on that type of shot. Our math is different. I'm more likely to go for the green in two than he is - the aiming line is right edge or so, and so a pull is on the green but a push of that distance is on that slope. He's more likely to lay up and not mess with the slope.
• Everyone plays bunker shots differently. Elevated pitch shots. Even sidehill or downhill lies factor in to the risk with a shot. Some people love their 3W or 5W, some hate them off the fairway and use them off the tee only.

My comment about a mathematically correct play was in the context of a specific golfer for that specific shot, not that there the same correct play for everyone. I will go edit what I wrote to try and make it clearer because I agree with what you are saying.

[iacas]

16 minutes ago, bortass said:

My comment about a mathematically correct play was in the context of a specific golfer for that specific shot, not that there the same correct play for everyone. I will go edit what I wrote to try and make it clearer because I agree with what you are saying.

 

I know. I was just using your post as a jumping off point, not disagreeing.

 

(I don't like that quoting someone is often read as disagreement, but it is what it is. I could add "yeah, and…" or something I suppose, but I never think of it in the moment because I know I'm not disagreeing. 😄)

[bortass]

25 minutes ago, iacas said:

 

I know. I was just using your post as a jumping off point, not disagreeing.

 

(I don't like that quoting someone is often read as disagreement, but it is what it is. I could add "yeah, and…" or something I suppose, but I never think of it in the moment because I know I'm not disagreeing. 😄)

I hear ya. Sometimes things get contentious here because golf is very serious business when we all drive it 300+ and know a 4 HCP would dominate the LPGA🙃

[596]

To me it's not about risk avoidance or risk tolerance. It's all about the odds. Just like in poker. You have to play the odds. And the odds are not just one hand.  It's the same hand or the same odds taken over many many hands, days or weeks. 

 

For example. 120 yard shot most people and me included are gonna come up short on a full pitching wedge. Even if that is your standard wedge distance.  I'm gonna play the odds that I'll mishit that wedge. So I'll hit either an 8 or 9 instead.  

 

My scores have dropped a lot using this strategy.  It's easier and a higher percentage to pitch an 8 100 yards then it is hitting the perfect gap wedge. 

 

I don't view it as risk reward or course management. I view this as managing "me". Managing the odds. 

[ShortGolfer]

Rolled the ball into the greenside bunker with a high lip on the very first hole.  

Inch of rain last night and standing water all over the course.  Of course the sand is wet.  Fortunately my ball is sitting on top of it.

Pulled my 58/6 low bounce lob wedge and opened the face.

Lob shot hit the sloped green and rolled from right to left about ten feet, giving me a ten foot 2 putt for bogey.

A bogey is a good score for me.  Only had two Pars and two bogies out of nine holes today.

I do this a lot from bunkers.  One shot to get on the green and one or two putt to finish.

 

More likely to have a bad outcome from the high grass around the green.

Edited December 4, 2023 by ShortGolfer

[ferrispgm]

Quite honestly, I try to avoid as much risk as I can off the tee and for approach shots. Around the green it's a different story depending on how I'm playing on the day.  If I have a shot at a low round if I can pull off a tough up and down as opposed to hitting a boring pitch and leaving 20ft, then I'll probably chance it.  But trying to cut a corner off the tee where if I don't hit it perfect it's unplayable....no thank you.  I'll take the middle of the fairway and middle third of the green all day. 

[SNIPERBBB]

On 12/4/2023 at 2:15 PM, 596 said:

To me it's not about risk avoidance or risk tolerance. It's all about the odds. Just like in poker. You have to play the odds. And the odds are not just one hand.  It's the same hand or the same odds taken over many many hands, days or weeks. 

 

For example. 120 yard shot most people and me included are gonna come up short on a full pitching wedge. Even if that is your standard wedge distance.  I'm gonna play the odds that I'll mishit that wedge. So I'll hit either an 8 or 9 instead.  

 

My scores have dropped a lot using this strategy.  It's easier and a higher percentage to pitch an 8 100 yards then it is hitting the perfect gap wedge. 

 

I don't view it as risk reward or course management. I view this as managing "me". Managing the odds. 

Playing the odds are exactly what risk avoidance/tolerance. 

 

Say out of 10 shots from a particular location to another, what's the acceptable # of times would the shot not working for you to not play it. 1 of ten  2 of ten, 6 of ten? 

 Risk avoidance is more of avoiding the shot that will guarantee a bad result . Tolerance is if a bad result MAY happen. 

[EddieEdwards]

I usually don't worry about bunkers, although I'm less likely to get up and down.

 

I usually don't take an extra club over water.  If I chunk it into the water, its probably gonna happen with an extra club also.  Unless its windy.

 

I'm confident in my distances and wil go after front and back pins more often than I probably should.  Directionally, I aim to the conservative side though.

 

Long tight par 4 with tree trouble. I hit driver, because I can usually advance the punch out, and have a wedge in. With OB, I'll go fairway wood-fairway wood.

 

Hero shot out of the trees vs. Punch out and get up and down from the fairway. I'm punching out and sticking it from the fairway or making the putt.  Actually,  I'm probably making bogey, but avoiding a big number.

 

Par 4 that tightens up. I'll often lay back to the fat part of the fairway. 

 

 

 

[HiTrajLoSpin]

On 12/3/2023 at 2:32 PM, st1800e said:

Risk is a combination of 2 things. Probability and consequence.  
 

what’s better , high probability and mild consequence or low probability and disastrous consequence ? 

 

 

To expound on the above, tolerance/avoidance is complicated by the fact that the probabilities and consequences of success/failure are nonlinear.

 

That is, taking your medicine with a safe out has a high probability of success, which also will usually result in only one additional stroke to your score.

 

Whereas, a riskier shot has a low probability of success that normally can only save one stroke, while it has an associated high probability of failure that can quite often also result in more than one additional stroke, i.e., the "big number".

Edited December 10, 2023 by HiTrajLoSpin

[ShortGolfer]

Golf is also  an example of quantization, in which the final result is a natural number.

I learned that sort of math but there may be a lot of foreign concepts for most.