More blatherings from Isaacbm about handicap...

[Thrillhouse]

[quote name='Hattori Hanzo' timestamp='1356751358' post='6132333']
And here I was all proud of myself for finally getting down to scratch...Thanks a lot, Dan!

In all seriousness, this has quickly become one of my favorite threads on this site! I think it should be required reading for the 8 handicaps asking if/how they can make it on tour.
[/quote]

We tried that, one of them freaked out at me over it, it was a lot like one of those people on American idol yelling at simon and Paula for telling them that they can't sing, and theyre all "YOU DON'T KNOW ME! YOU DON'T KNOW MY FAMILY! YOU IS WRONG! I IS GONNA MAKE IT AND WHEN I DO IM GONNA COME BACK HERE AND THROW IT RIGHT IN YOUR FACE!"

Meanwhile I'm just sitting there like randy Jackson all like "what's your problem dog?"

[Hattori Hanzo]

[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356751601' post='6132345']
[quote name='Hattori Hanzo' timestamp='1356751358' post='6132333']
And here I was all proud of myself for finally getting down to scratch...Thanks a lot, Dan!

In all seriousness, this has quickly become one of my favorite threads on this site! I think it should be required reading for the 8 handicaps asking if/how they can make it on tour.
[/quote]

We tried that, one of them freaked out at me over it, it was a lot like one of those people on American idol yelling at simon and Paula for telling them that they can't sing, and theyre all "YOU DON'T KNOW ME! YOU DON'T KNOW MY FAMILY! YOU IS WRONG! I IS GONNA MAKE IT AND WHEN I DO IM GONNA COME BACK HERE AND THROW IT RIGHT IN YOUR FACE!"

Meanwhile I'm just sitting there like randy Jackson all like "what's your problem dog?"
[/quote]

Did it go down kind of like this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzE3L-NKL4

[deadsolid...shank]

[quote name='Johnny Biarritz' timestamp='1356683059' post='6127955']
I had a thought on this the other day. I think you need to be roughly 50 strokes under the effective course rating for a 4 day tournament in order to win. Probably need to be 15 under to make the cut. Where do I get that number? I played TPC Louisiana the other day. Course rating from the back tees is 76.3. Figure the course is 2-3 shots harder when prepped for competition, so effective course rating of 79, rounded. So that would make 316 the "par" for the week, based off the course rating. 50 under would be 266...winning score this past year was 269, so I don't feel wrong.

I'd say that any player who even gets a tour card is a +6 handicap. Guys who can keep them year after year probably closer to +7 and guys at the top are +8 or +9, and when they go on a tear like Rory did to close out the season, probably closer to +12 or +13 in spurts. Disagree?
[/quote]

My only question here is in regards to the course rating. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the course rating derived from what a pro would shoot? Obviously the touring pros are going to shoot much lower than that adjusted rating of 78 or 79, so really that rating really isn't applicable to the touring pro is it?

Doesn't make a bit of difference to the topic, it just kind of popped into my head that possibly calculating any kind of handicapp for the touring pros can't quite be accurate because to me the course ratings are too high for these guys.

I think my eye opener was in our local Pro Am. This one is probably even lower than a Mini tour event and its shocking to see how good these guys are, and any year in the field of 40 or so pros, there might be two or three that even advance out of first stage of Q school. There are a ton of really,really good players out there.

[Hattori Hanzo]

[quote name='deadsolid...shank' timestamp='1356754445' post='6132497']
My only question here is in regards to the course rating. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the course rating derived from what a pro would shoot? Obviously the touring pros are going to shoot much lower than that adjusted rating of 78 or 79, so really that rating really isn't applicable to the touring pro is it?
[/quote]

The course rating is actually derived from the scores of scratch golfers. I guess that means, to be 100% accurate, these people would have to have 0.0 indexes? Hopefully someone more experienced can chime in!

[deadsolid...shank]

[quote name='Hattori Hanzo' timestamp='1356754656' post='6132509']
[quote name='deadsolid...shank' timestamp='1356754445' post='6132497']
My only question here is in regards to the course rating. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the course rating derived from what a pro would shoot? Obviously the touring pros are going to shoot much lower than that adjusted rating of 78 or 79, so really that rating really isn't applicable to the touring pro is it?
[/quote]

The course rating is actually derived from the scores of scratch golfers. I guess that means, to be 100% accurate, these people would have to have 0.0 indexes? Hopefully someone more experienced can chime in!
[/quote]

That's what I was wondering, if the course rating is based on scratches, for the touring pro it would be substantially lower I would think.

[Johnny Biarritz]

[quote name='deadsolid...shank' timestamp='1356754445' post='6132497']
[quote name='Johnny Biarritz' timestamp='1356683059' post='6127955']
I had a thought on this the other day. I think you need to be roughly 50 strokes under the effective course rating for a 4 day tournament in order to win. Probably need to be 15 under to make the cut. Where do I get that number? I played TPC Louisiana the other day. Course rating from the back tees is 76.3. Figure the course is 2-3 shots harder when prepped for competition, so effective course rating of 79, rounded. So that would make 316 the "par" for the week, based off the course rating. 50 under would be 266...winning score this past year was 269, so I don't feel wrong.

I'd say that any player who even gets a tour card is a +6 handicap. Guys who can keep them year after year probably closer to +7 and guys at the top are +8 or +9, and when they go on a tear like Rory did to close out the season, probably closer to +12 or +13 in spurts. Disagree?
[/quote]

My only question here is in regards to the course rating. Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the course rating derived from what a pro would shoot? Obviously the touring pros are going to shoot much lower than that adjusted rating of 78 or 79, so really that rating really isn't applicable to the touring pro is it?

Doesn't make a bit of difference to the topic, it just kind of popped into my head that possibly calculating any kind of handicapp for the touring pros can't quite be accurate because to me the course ratings are too high for these guys.

I think my eye opener was in our local Pro Am. This one is probably even lower than a Mini tour event and its shocking to see how good these guys are, and any year in the field of 40 or so pros, there might be two or three that even advance out of first stage of Q school. There are a ton of really,really good players out there.
[/quote]

No, Course Rating is what a standard Scratch Golfer would shoot on that course given typical in-season conditions. So for TPC Louisiana, the Scratch golfer would be expected to shoot 76.3 (obviously we know that can't happen) from the back tees. That given standard conditions, whatever those may be, of green speed, green firmness, rough length, and so forth. Obviously for a Tour event, the greens will be firmer, greens will be faster, rough will be longer and on and on. So I don't feel bad about saying the Scratch Course Rating is 2 or 3 strokes harder the week of the tournament than it is on a normal week. So that led me to say the Scratch Course Rating for the week of the tournament is/was 79. That number by itself is not all that meaningful for the professional player, but the Scratch rating is basically "par" for the Scratch golfer, rather than 72.

And you are correct, a handicap can't meaningfully be calculated for tour players because the Scratch Course Rating is [b]NOT HIGH ENOUGH [/b]because they don't play under normal conditions, and as such the Bogey Course Rating and Slope are also not true numbers.

Here is something I came up with for the US Open...Course rating was probably about 82. Look down the scores and I think you'll see where I am coming from. Bogey Rating was probably 125, maybe even higher (just think, what do you think a 18-20 handicap golfer would have shot at Olympic Club under US Open conditions? I say 125). Slope is calculated as Bogey Rating minus Course Rating multiplied by 5.381 (for men). So, 125 - 82 = 43...43 x 5.381 = 231.38 So yeah, the calculated slope of Olympic Club Lake course during the US Open was about 232, if you trust my calculations. But the scale doesn't allow more than 155, so the number is truncated for handicapping purposes. Let that sink in: Course/Slope of 82/232 for a course. So that's the effective numbers for the course that week, yet if you wanted to post those scores for handicapping purposes, you'd have to use 76.7/143 as the course and slope. So that would mean Michael Thompson's Thursday 66 was "only" 10 shots under the course rating, when in reality, it was probably closer to 16 under the rating...16 under par that is.

[PaddyK]

[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356683459' post='6127961']
[quote name='Johnny Biarritz' timestamp='1356683059' post='6127955']
I had a thought on this the other day. I think you need to be roughly 50 strokes under the effective course rating for a 4 day tournament in order to win. Probably need to be 15 under to make the cut. Where do I get that number? I played TPC Louisiana the other day. Course rating from the back tees is 76.3. Figure the course is 2-3 shots harder when prepped for competition, so effective course rating of 79, rounded. So that would make 316 the "par" for the week, based off the course rating. 50 under would be 266...winning score this past year was 269, so I don't feel wrong.

I'd say that any player who even gets a tour card is a +6 handicap. Guys who can keep them year after year probably closer to +7 and guys at the top are +8 or +9, and when they go on a tear like Rory did to close out the season, probably closer to +12 or +13 in spurts. Disagree?
[/quote]

Sounds about right.
[/quote]

+12? I think your hero worship is getting the better of you.

[Johnny Biarritz]

[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356770329' post='6132995']
[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356683459' post='6127961']
[quote name='Johnny Biarritz' timestamp='1356683059' post='6127955']
I had a thought on this the other day. I think you need to be roughly 50 strokes under the effective course rating for a 4 day tournament in order to win. Probably need to be 15 under to make the cut. Where do I get that number? I played TPC Louisiana the other day. Course rating from the back tees is 76.3. Figure the course is 2-3 shots harder when prepped for competition, so effective course rating of 79, rounded. So that would make 316 the "par" for the week, based off the course rating. 50 under would be 266...winning score this past year was 269, so I don't feel wrong.

I'd say that any player who even gets a tour card is a +6 handicap. Guys who can keep them year after year probably closer to +7 and guys at the top are +8 or +9, and when they go on a tear like Rory did to close out the season, probably closer to +12 or +13 in spurts. Disagree?
[/quote]

Sounds about right.
[/quote]

+12? I think your hero worship is getting the better of you.
[/quote]

I could say the same about Jason Dufner back during the summer when he had 2 wins and a 2nd in 4 weeks. His 'handicap' during that time and for a little while after that was effectively +12 or +11. I don't like Rory, I think he's a...well, words that the mods don't like...but that doesn't take away from the fact that he tore off 3 wins in short order. Do you disagree with my math that to win a player needs to shoot somewhere between 45 and 50 under the effective course rating for a given week in order to win?

[PaddyK]

a handicap is an ongoing entity and has to include the bad aswell as the good. yes you will have to play some great golf to win, but thats not an effective indicator of handicap.

play like he was Plus 12? sure for a week or 2.

actually get to plus 12 over a season and maintain it? I dont think so.

[Johnny Biarritz]

I never said over the course of a season. But you take Rory's last 5 tournaments where he had 3 wins and calculate from there. Using the US handicapping method, you only count 10 of the most recent 20 scores. In 5 tournaments, he'll have 20 scores. Given that he won 3 times, and if we are to say that winning requires 50 under the Course Rating, then his 10 best scores should average out to roughly 12 shots below the effective course rating for the given course. For the season as a whole, his handicap would probably fluctuate from around +6, back early in the year when he was floundering around, to the +12 at the end of the year. However, given our system over here (I see you are from London and I am assuming London, England and not London, Ontario) your handicap index is recalculated every 15 days. As many rounds as these guys play, the index would likely change rather substantially with every revision. So scores from May or June would not even show up in the calculation for the handicap at the end of September.

Club players would see substantial variation in scores over the course of the year as well if they played 20 rounds a month, at least using the US system. I don't think it would be incredible to see a player be a 12 handicap (club player) in a April and then going to a 6 towards the end of the season with ups and downs in between. But they would have to play a lot of rounds.

[PaddyK]

The trouble is you are using system designed to level the field for amateurs that doesn't apply to the professional world. I don't really know the USGA system that well, but does it account for how easy or hard a course plays on a given round?
in the UK handicap changes are based on the Competition scratch score, which can be several shot under or over the courses actual standard scratch score. Depending on how hard or easy the course played that day.

[Johnny Biarritz]

No, the USGA system doesn't change based on day of play like the UK system does with SSS and CSS. For a standard tour event, the CSS (which we don't have) is almost certainly 3 shots higher than the SSS (our Course Rating), which is why I used 79 for TPC Louisiana as what would basically be CSS with the Course Rating of 76.3. So basically I am saying that a player needs to be 50 strokes under CSS for a given week in order to win. And of course, you are correct that the system was not designed to handicap this low. But it's fun to look at it this way.

In all seriousness, if you know a UK course rater, the guys who travel around and assign SSS (I assume you have those, we do over here), see if they can possibly calculate a CSS for a course the week it is hosting a Euro Tour event. I'd be really interested in seeing the results, if possible.

[iBanesto]

Nick O'Hern's handicap before he turned pro was 2! Not +2.

[Thrillhouse]

[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356771931' post='6133019']
a handicap is an ongoing entity and has to include the bad aswell as the good. yes you will have to play some great golf to win, but thats not an effective indicator of handicap.

play like he was Plus 12? sure for a week or 2.

actually get to plus 12 over a season and maintain it? I dont think so.
[/quote]

You gotta read what the guy wrote bud. He's not saying the whole season, he's saying the weeks that they win, and yes, based upon my years of professional experience I believe he is correct in his assesment.

[PaddyK]

[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356812517' post='6134819']
[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356771931' post='6133019']
a handicap is an ongoing entity and has to include the bad aswell as the good. yes you will have to play some great golf to win, but thats not an effective indicator of handicap.

play like he was Plus 12? sure for a week or 2.

actually get to plus 12 over a season and maintain it? I dont think so.
[/quote]

You gotta read what the guy wrote bud. He's not saying the whole season, he's saying the weeks that they win, and yes, based upon my years of professional experience I believe he is correct in his assesment.
[/quote]

then its meaningless really.

[Thrillhouse]

[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356815086' post='6134935']
[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356812517' post='6134819']
[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356771931' post='6133019']
a handicap is an ongoing entity and has to include the bad aswell as the good. yes you will have to play some great golf to win, but thats not an effective indicator of handicap.

play like he was Plus 12? sure for a week or 2.

actually get to plus 12 over a season and maintain it? I dont think so.
[/quote]

You gotta read what the guy wrote bud. He's not saying the whole season, he's saying the weeks that they win, and yes, based upon my years of professional experience I believe he is correct in his assesment.
[/quote]

then its meaningless really.
[/quote]

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

Moving on.

[isaacbm]

[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356815086' post='6134935']
[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356812517' post='6134819']
[quote name='PaddyK' timestamp='1356771931' post='6133019']
a handicap is an ongoing entity and has to include the bad aswell as the good. yes you will have to play some great golf to win, but thats not an effective indicator of handicap.

play like he was Plus 12? sure for a week or 2.

actually get to plus 12 over a season and maintain it? I dont think so.
[/quote]

You gotta read what the guy wrote bud. He's not saying the whole season, he's saying the weeks that they win, and yes, based upon my years of professional experience I believe he is correct in his assesment.
[/quote]

then its meaningless really.
[/quote]

He's saying that the adjusted course rating/slope for a scratch golfer would be likely 3 shots harder during tour setup. Then he's saying that Rory had a stretch for 5 straight weeks (20 rounds) where he won 3 times and finished second 1 time.

If the US system needs only 20 scores to accurately calculate a handicap, then Rory's handicap would have been +12 or so during that stretch. It's not meaningless because by the end of his 20th round in that period, all of the other scores posted before the 1st round in that stretch would no longer count towards his handicap. So there fore his current handicap would have been +12.

I'm not saying it's exactly accurate because the rating committee hasn't actually re rated the course for a scratch golfer but his point is pretty easy to understand.

Why do you think it's meaningless? Handicap is not calculated for a whole season in the US system, it's calculated using only the last 20 scores that you've entered.

[MtlJeff]

we need to merge this with the AK thread in instruction, just so the same thread can simultaneously call Mcilroy a +12 handicap and also say his swing isn't that great

[isaacbm]

[quote name='MtlJeff' timestamp='1356816761' post='6135025']
we need to merge this with the AK thread in instruction, just so the same thread can simultaneously call Mcilroy a +12 handicap and also say his swing isn't that great
[/quote]

I think I'm giving up on that thread. How can a guy that is number one in the world not be considered a good ball striker? How do you move the ball towards the target? You "strike" it. He who strikes it the fewest times is the best in the world.

this idea that you have to make a certain sound when the ball is hit or that you have to have the sweet spot worn out to be considered great is so strange to me. Golf is measured by score not by acoustics.

[Thrillhouse]

[quote name='isaacbm' timestamp='1356817072' post='6135057']
Golf is measured by score not by acoustics.
[/quote]

Shows what you know, I've sold a million copies of "thrillhouse live at pebble beach" where I play my cello in a man thong on the 18th green.

[Hattori Hanzo]

[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356817437' post='6135081']
[quote name='isaacbm' timestamp='1356817072' post='6135057']
Golf is measured by score not by acoustics.
[/quote]

Shows what you know, I've sold a million copies of "thrillhouse live at pebble beach" where I play my cello in a man thong on the 18th green.
[/quote]

And besides, if it was, then Jack Hamm would have already won golf, and the rest of us could just hang up the soft spikes.

[StevenF]

Rory is a hack.

[MtlJeff]

[quote name='Thrillhouse' timestamp='1356817437' post='6135081']
[quote name='isaacbm' timestamp='1356817072' post='6135057']
Golf is measured by score not by acoustics.
[/quote]

Shows what you know, I've sold a million copies of "thrillhouse live at pebble beach" where I play my cello in a man thong on the 18th green.
[/quote]

what do you mean "your cello", or do i want to know?

[farmer]

I hope "cello" is not some weird Canadian code word.

[Sean2]

Ha, what do I know, but over the years there have been some pretty ugly swings that have won some pretty big tournaments. To my feeble golf brain it's all about impact. It doesn't matter how the club head gets to impact as long as it gets there.

[sblack5]

Love this thread!.......im working on it as well. My coach has plenty of d1 guys and a couple both past and present on the pga tour. My home course rating is 75.2 at near 7300 and its a lovely piece of humble pie when I can shoot 67 or 68 consistently and he tells me "thats great...but remember...its a process. Still a year to a year and a half away from not being a donator and having a chance. If the guy next to you beats you by one stroke every 6th hole and shoots 65 to your 68 then thats 12 shots by the time the weekend is over and there are probably 2 more zeroes on his check than yours..... If you get one."

[awil]

Just thought I'd add that most of these indexes given are wrong if you are just doing based on a practice round option my usga index allows me a "tournament" option to post scores from tournaments. If you post two tournament scores equivalent to or greater than your handicap it changes your handicap automatically . I also don't know the formula but think it makes the course harder to par because it was a "tournament "

[sblack5]

Doesnt everyone have a T index as opposed to the other rounds they turn a score in?

[awil]

Not that I believe it's all under one handicap above your handicap doesn't affect if I'm right but its meant as a way to avoid sandbagging but would someone who shoots 76 at sawgrass stadium in a tournament twice for example and was a 11 handicap bothe roosting that as he is a sandbagged some info I don't know I just put my numbers in the machine and tell them the questions asked

[Johnny Biarritz]

Posting a Tournament score does not change the course rating for that specific course.

Isaac has it right. Truthfully the course would have to be re-rated by a rating ream given tournament conditions. And most of those guys will tell you that the ratings won't change much due to the formula in place. I had a guy once say that the hazard factor on a US Open course is probably 14 or 15 given the scale in place, but you can only put down 10. He said that on a Open course, the actual rating would not change much because the hazard factors can't go up high enough, but I feel comfortable saying that 50 strokes under the course rating is what you need to win a tour event. So at the US Open the course rating is probably 83 most years, regular events probably range from 77 to 80.