Will Jordan pass Tiger ?

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  • tideridertiderider Members Posts: 1,964 ✭✭
    dennis4190 wrote:


    Wait til he gets married and has kids and see if he can stay motivated.




    nicklaus said tiger would be much better when he got married ... someone to talk to about his stresses on/off the course ... you think jordan will be less motivated once he's married? ... jack had 5 kids born over a 13 year period from 61 to 73 ... won 12 majors in that time ... and didn't have the money from off the course sources jordan has ...



    jordan and rory and dustin and all the others are plenty motivated ...
  • hdr_richdr_ric Members Posts: 1,472 ✭✭
    jgonz69 wrote:
    tiderider wrote:


    tiger was so far ahead of jordan at the same pt in their careers it's a wonder anyone even brings up the subject ...


    Wins before 24.

    Jordan has 11 total wins and 3 majors. Tiger had 15 total wins wins and 2 majors. Jack had 8 and 3.

    You must be talking waffle house waitresses.




    You need to do this analysis by STARTS, not age, to make the comparison at all meaningful. And once you do, you will find that it is not even close. Tiger and Jack are so far ahead of anyone else it makes the premise of this thread look retarded.
  • tideridertiderider Members Posts: 1,964 ✭✭
    jgonz69 wrote:

    tiderider wrote:


    tiger was so far ahead of jordan at the same pt in their careers it's a wonder anyone even brings up the subject ...


    Wins before 24.

    Jordan has 11 total wins and 3 majors. Tiger had 15 total wins wins and 2 majors. Jack had 8 and 3.

    You must be talking waffle house waitresses.




    lol ... learn how to analyze something rationally ...
  • AThompson_3AThompson_3 Members Posts: 1,418 ✭✭
    No I don't think he will get to 14 majors which is all anyone really cares about. But let's say he plays at a high level until he is 40. (Yes I know he can win some after 40, but let's just say 40 is him prime years) That's 16 more years. Just to win 10 majors that's less than 1 every other year. Spieth is the best putter on tour and I don't see that slowing down. I say he gets hot with the flat stick at least one out of every 8 majors. We already know he loves Augusta. Granted that 12th hole still haunts him, but other than 12 he has really played Augusta at a higher level these past 4 years WAY than any other golfer and was in the final group 3 out of the 4 years. So I say he completes the Grand Slam at some point. He wins 3-4 more green jackets. Then squeak out another US and PGA as well.
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  • The BeavThe Beav Members Posts: 425 ✭✭
    Keeping in mind that Tiger probably can't even wipe his own business without severe back pain, I'll go with who cares.
  • AThompson_3AThompson_3 Members Posts: 1,418 ✭✭
    Spieth is not as intriguing as Tiger is, but he is definitely the most intriguing since Tiger without question.
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  • toddnttoddnt Members Posts: 4,289 ✭✭
    Majors- definite possibility



    70+ wins- nope
  • ShilgyShilgy PhoenixMembers Posts: 11,689 ✭✭
    tbowles411 wrote:

    Shilgy wrote:


    The funny thing is that we all think these "generational talents" like Jones, Hogan, Jack and Tiger only come along every 25 years or so. But in the same breath some applaud the trio of Snead Nelson and Hogan and they were born the same year. Do perhaps Spieth is one of those and we won't be waiting another 30 years for another Tiger type of winner. Tiger showed these kids that it CAN be done. Put together a great talent with the will and belief and just maybe...



    And this is coming from an unabashed Woods fan.


    I'd like to see someone try, but I honestly don't think Jordan or anyone for that matter will reach it. Good or bad, Tiger had that singular focus. Golf was all that mattered. The golfers today see the cautionary tale of his life and probably realized that golf is not everything. Most of the names today are also streaky. They don't go on long runs of wins. It took 7 first time major winners to get someone to repeat as a champion. Jordan went almost 2 full years before getting his third. It can be done though, but I just don't think anyone is going to have the stomach to give it their full attention. Jack was just on another level altogether. His talent was nuts...
    So maybe Jack is his inspiration instead of Tiger. Then he won't worry about burn out.
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  • KingMike KingMike Members Posts: 409 ✭✭
    I'm just glad he sunk all those putts and we're having this conversation. It would have been a miserable experience to watch him melt down and fade at 13. To watch him conjure that finish.... I'm still shaking my head. Golf rules.
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  • RichardcabeezaRichardcabeeza Banned Posts: 309
    KingMike wrote:


    I'm just glad he sunk all those putts and we're having this conversation. It would have been a miserable experience to watch him melt down and fade at 13. To watch him conjure that finish.... I'm still shaking my head. Golf rules.




    Concur. For someone that stinks (by pro standards) so bad off the tee, he is amazing with the rest of his game. Don't go quoting stats or anything, I'm sure they'll make it look better than what it is. I watched his round today (and many others). He has no idea where it's going when he tees it up. I can sympathize, I've been there all year too. His post tee shot routine is to either point left or point right. He can flat out score from anywhere. I have had a grand total of one round in my life where I putted like him and it will be a round I'll never forget. He does it every time out.



    I won't be shocked if he challenges 14 majors. He has that "it" factor. I think that he's recovered mentally from the Masters meltdown. I was concerned that that would be it for him. For a lessor man it would have. Don't forget that he almost won the 3rd leg that first year he won the Masters and then the Masters after. That would have put him at 5 and we'd all be thinking that he was on course to set every record. I'll take a stab, and hope that I'll be around to find out, I think he'll easily get to 10 majors. Career wins won't be Tiger'ish, but I think he'll challenge 14 majors and maybe even (gasp!) challenge 18. We'll see, and like I said I hope to be around to find out. Since it appears that he's bought him some hair (I no longer had to do the "bald, bald, bald... my eyes! chant ala The Spongebob Movie when he removed his hat), let's hope that he can stay focused on the golf and not the things that fell lessor mortals (women, drink, women, drugs, women, and women).
  • cdnglfcdnglf Members Posts: 3,342 ✭✭
    edited Jul 23, 2017 #72
    hdr_ric wrote:

    jgonz69 wrote:
    tiderider wrote:


    tiger was so far ahead of jordan at the same pt in their careers it's a wonder anyone even brings up the subject ...


    Wins before 24.

    Jordan has 11 total wins and 3 majors. Tiger had 15 total wins wins and 2 majors. Jack had 8 and 3.

    You must be talking waffle house waitresses.




    You need to do this analysis by STARTS, not age, to make the comparison at all meaningful. And once you do, you will find that it is not even close. Tiger and Jack are so far ahead of anyone else it makes the premise of this thread look retarded.




    Why? Basketball and especially baseball always use same-age comparisons in this type of analysis.

    Spieth could conceivably make twice as many competitive PGA Tour starts in his career as Tiger. At the end of it all, people are going to look at the total wins, so I'm not sure why starts are so important.
  • tbowles411tbowles411 ClubWRX Posts: 25,244 ✭✭
    Shilgy wrote:

    tbowles411 wrote:

    Shilgy wrote:


    The funny thing is that we all think these "generational talents" like Jones, Hogan, Jack and Tiger only come along every 25 years or so. But in the same breath some applaud the trio of Snead Nelson and Hogan and they were born the same year. Do perhaps Spieth is one of those and we won't be waiting another 30 years for another Tiger type of winner. Tiger showed these kids that it CAN be done. Put together a great talent with the will and belief and just maybe...



    And this is coming from an unabashed Woods fan.


    I'd like to see someone try, but I honestly don't think Jordan or anyone for that matter will reach it. Good or bad, Tiger had that singular focus. Golf was all that mattered. The golfers today see the cautionary tale of his life and probably realized that golf is not everything. Most of the names today are also streaky. They don't go on long runs of wins. It took 7 first time major winners to get someone to repeat as a champion. Jordan went almost 2 full years before getting his third. It can be done though, but I just don't think anyone is going to have the stomach to give it their full attention. Jack was just on another level altogether. His talent was nuts...
    So maybe Jack is his inspiration instead of Tiger. Then he won't worry about burn out.


    Maybe. You never know.
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  • I will go on record and say...NOT CHANCE AT ALL OF WINNING OR EXCEEDING 14 MAJORS.



    Jordan is a fantastic person and a great player but he is no where in the ballpark of Woods.



    Think of it this way...Hogan won only 9 majors and many of you folks on this site consider him the best ever. Only 4 players ever have double digit majors and one was an amateur (Bobby Jones). Spieth has 3. He is not winning tournaments or majors at a 30% win rate like Tiger.



    Not knocking Spieth at all. I think he could end up with 7-8 majors which would be one of the best careers of all-time.

    Palmer only won 6.




    Well let's see. 3 majors in 5 years (and **** close to 2 more). If he "only" continues that pace he'll have 12 by 39. And most pro golfers have their most productive years from late 20's to mid 30's.



    If he doesn't battle a lot of injuries he will surely end up with 15+




    Arnold won 7 majors in 6 years. Had he kept that pace he would have won 14 majors...BUT he stopped winning majors. This argument assumes too much.
  • bscinstnctbscinstnct Members Posts: 26,921 ✭✭
    edited Jul 23, 2017 #75




    I will go on record and say...NOT CHANCE AT ALL OF WINNING OR EXCEEDING 14 MAJORS.



    Jordan is a fantastic person and a great player but he is no where in the ballpark of Woods.



    Think of it this way...Hogan won only 9 majors and many of you folks on this site consider him the best ever. Only 4 players ever have double digit majors and one was an amateur (Bobby Jones). Spieth has 3. He is not winning tournaments or majors at a 30% win rate like Tiger.



    Not knocking Spieth at all. I think he could end up with 7-8 majors which would be one of the best careers of all-time.

    Palmer only won 6.




    Well let's see. 3 majors in 5 years (and **** close to 2 more). If he "only" continues that pace he'll have 12 by 39. And most pro golfers have their most productive years from late 20's to mid 30's.



    If he doesn't battle a lot of injuries he will surely end up with 15+




    Arnold won 7 majors in 6 years. Had he kept that pace he would have won 14 majors...BUT he stopped winning majors. This argument assumes too much.




    Agree. Pro sports. Expect anything.



    Things can go south fast.



    Spieth could win 10 more.



    Or he could fry his nerves and burn out anytime.



    There was a yip just today from 2 feet. He sprays the ball all over the place.



    How long does the self belief last that *no matter what*, I can make anything from 12 feet?
  • new2g0lfnew2g0lf Members Posts: 3,427 ✭✭
    If and when Spieth gets to 9 we can entertain the discussion, at this point it's way too premature. 3 Majors would be considered an amazing career for most guys on Tour. Spieth only turns 24 in a few days so he definitely should be able to win a few more but 14 is a lot.
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  • CrushSticksCrushSticks Members Posts: 637 ✭✭
    bscinstnct wrote:




    I will go on record and say...NOT CHANCE AT ALL OF WINNING OR EXCEEDING 14 MAJORS.



    Jordan is a fantastic person and a great player but he is no where in the ballpark of Woods.



    Think of it this way...Hogan won only 9 majors and many of you folks on this site consider him the best ever. Only 4 players ever have double digit majors and one was an amateur (Bobby Jones). Spieth has 3. He is not winning tournaments or majors at a 30% win rate like Tiger.



    Not knocking Spieth at all. I think he could end up with 7-8 majors which would be one of the best careers of all-time.

    Palmer only won 6.




    Well let's see. 3 majors in 5 years (and **** close to 2 more). If he "only" continues that pace he'll have 12 by 39. And most pro golfers have their most productive years from late 20's to mid 30's.



    If he doesn't battle a lot of injuries he will surely end up with 15+




    Arnold won 7 majors in 6 years. Had he kept that pace he would have won 14 majors...BUT he stopped winning majors. This argument assumes too much.




    Agree. Pro sports. Expect anything.



    Things can go south fast.



    Spieth could win 10 more.



    Or he could fry his nerves and burn out anytime.



    There was a yip just today from 2 feet. He sprays the ball all over the place.



    How long does the self belief last that *no matter what*, I can make anything from 12 feet?




    I don't think it was a "yip" from "2 feet". More like a slight mishit/misread from 3.5'. But I do like your question of how long does the " I can make anything" last.



    Tiger had the I can make anything mentality for a long time and he did make pretty much everything when it mattered. It bordered on ridiculous the amount of times he came through in the clutch. Remember when Rocco said " I knew he'd make it" at the US Open. He really did know.



    Does Jordan have that? I'm not so sure. But I love the way he grinds and the way that even though his emotions get the best of him, he keeps fighting hard.



    No one else can win 79 times, it's just a clip that is absurd( basically 5 wins a year). But I think Spieth can go for 30ish and 6-8 majors.





    new2g0lf wrote:
    If and when Spieth gets to 9 we can entertain the discussion, at this point it's way too premature. 3 Majors would be considered an amazing career for most guys on Tour. Spieth only turns 24 in a few days so he definitely should be able to win a few more but 14 is a lot.




    3 majors would be amazing for basically any guy on tour right now.
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  • santasquatchasantasquatcha Members Posts: 227 ✭✭
    edited Jul 23, 2017 #78
    I agree that this thread should be restarted only if he hits 10 majors by the time he's 33 or so.



    So much can happen between now and then.

    One thing Jordan does have, is competing in the final group of 3-4 majors that he did not win...



    Which means he just plain has the "it" factor for major tournaments.



    Think about how many majors Jack could have won had he not placed 2nd and just holed a couple more putts.
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  • Honcho72Honcho72 Members Posts: 636 ✭✭
  • fowlerscousinfowlerscousin Members Posts: 796 ✭✭
    His total resume could end up tiger like, he's on pace for it and his career could have 10 more full seasons in it. Jordan's game is so close to absolutely dominating the tour, just takes some small adjustments. Imo he doesn't have that extra gear, meaning power, where he can bring a course to it's knees at will the way tiger was able to. If Jordan decides to pursue some distance, which would be a gamble than his win rate could explode.
  • jslane57jslane57 Members Posts: 3,929 ✭✭
    Everyone in pro golf today knows that Jordan beats them when his putter gets hot. Unless a new kid comes along that can read greens like Jordan, then yes, he can do it...
  • i*windowsi*windows Members Posts: 2,185 ✭✭
    No.
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  • youdamantigeryoudamantiger Members Posts: 438 ✭✭
    He doesn't have to. If I've learned anything in the Golfwrx forums it's that any one win that happens in the present means more than any four wins that happened in the past. You know, because something something depth of fields. All Jordan has to do to top Tiger is get to 10 majors.
  • OrangeGravyOrangeGravy WAMembers Posts: 1,236 ✭✭


    I agree that this thread should be restarted only if he hits 10 majors by the time he's 33 or so.



    So much can happen between now and then.

    One thing Jordan does have, is competing in the final group of 3-4 majors that he did not win...



    Which means he just plain has the "it" factor for major tournaments.



    Think about how many majors Jack could have won had he not placed 2nd and just holed a couple more putts.




    How many of those T2's for Jack was he within 1/2 strokes? I've never seen that number. I think that would be a better determination of what he could've won. 3 or more strokes off the winner and I would say the T2 is purely symbolic. I'm not trying to be argumentative. I truly am curios what that breakout would look like and am way too lazy to look it up myself
  • scruffynickscruffynick manchester, UKMembers Posts: 1,515 ✭✭
    Can't see it, 14 is some total and the competition is fierce! Can see Jordan getting around 7-8 which is something in itself
  • puttingmattputtingmatt puttingmatt Summer/ Michigan-- Winter/ FloridaMembers Posts: 5,161 ✭✭
    Think its to early in Jordans career, but he is on a good trajectory.

    The man does win, and often. The simularities are worth noting.


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  • hdr_richdr_ric Members Posts: 1,472 ✭✭
    edited Jul 24, 2017 #87
    Ok. Here are the stats:



    Jordan, 113 starts, 11 wins (3 majors)



    Jack, 114 starts, 20 wins, (6 majors)



    Tiger, 119 starts, 32 wins, (6 majors)





    I was too lazy to go back into jack in 1966 and tiger in 2001 to track to their exact 113th start, but the above is close enough to prove the point.
  • jmckjmck Members Posts: 4,353 ✭✭
    hdr_ric wrote:


    Ok. Here are the stats:



    Jordan, 113 starts, 11 wins (3 majors)



    Jack, 114 starts, 20 wins, (6 majors)



    Tiger, 119 starts, 32 wins, (6 majors)





    I was too lazy to go back into jack in 1966 and tiger in 2001 to track to their exact 113th start, but the above is close enough to prove the point.




    In one of the many many similar threads about this stuff over the years, someone did some pretty interesting analysis about win percentage stabilizing in a player's mid 20s, and then more or less remaining the same throughout his career until he moves into the semi-retirement/injured/ceremonial phase.



    Rory and Spieth are both hovering around 10-11%, which is miles ahead of their peers (I forget who's in third place, but the number is something like 4-5%), but miles behind either Jack or Tiger. For comparison, IIRC Mickelson is somewhere around 7 or 8%.



    I can see either Rory or Speith or both winning 10+ majors. 14 I'm not sure about--slim chance but probably not? 18's out of the question. Same for tournament victories. Maybe something similar to Phil--40 or 50--but 70 or 80 is not happening.



    Now if you could combine Rory's long game with Spieth's short game....now you're talking.....
  • JDCONJDCON Behind YouMembers Posts: 272 ✭✭
    At this point, the whole discussion of "will X win more than Y" and "will X be the GOAT" reminds me of my 12-year-old nephew arguing that whatever player he just watched on TV is probably the best chipper ever because he chipped in. Or, it is similar to the whole "my dad can beat up your dad" argument. It's all short-sighted and childish.
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  • denvergolfdenvergolf Castle Pines, COMembers Posts: 1,565 ✭✭
    I don't think he will ever be as dominant as Tiger was, but he has plenty of time to prove me wrong...



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  • cdnglfcdnglf Members Posts: 3,342 ✭✭
    edited Jul 24, 2017 #91
    jmck wrote:

    hdr_ric wrote:


    Ok. Here are the stats:



    Jordan, 113 starts, 11 wins (3 majors)



    Jack, 114 starts, 20 wins, (6 majors)



    Tiger, 119 starts, 32 wins, (6 majors)





    I was too lazy to go back into jack in 1966 and tiger in 2001 to track to their exact 113th start, but the above is close enough to prove the point.




    In one of the many many similar threads about this stuff over the years, someone did some pretty interesting analysis about win percentage stabilizing in a player's mid 20s, and then more or less remaining the same throughout his career until he moves into the semi-retirement/injured/ceremonial phase.



    Rory and Spieth are both hovering around 10-11%, which is miles ahead of their peers (I forget who's in third place, but the number is something like 4-5%), but miles behind either Jack or Tiger. For comparison, IIRC Mickelson is somewhere around 7 or 8%.



    I can see either Rory or Speith or both winning 10+ majors. 14 I'm not sure about--slim chance but probably not? 18's out of the question. Same for tournament victories. Maybe something similar to Phil--40 or 50--but 70 or 80 is not happening.



    Now if you could combine Rory's long game with Spieth's short game....now you're talking.....




    The (extremely) optimistic case:



    1. Jordan's true level of play is what we've seen over the past 3 seasons, and what he did at age 20 and younger is not relevant. That's 10 wins in 63 starts, about a 16% win rate.

    2. He will continue to play a lot (more than most other elite players)

    3. He will sustain that rate for 10 more years, with a gentle Phil-like decline for the 10 years after that.



    Roughly:

    10 years * 22 events/year * 0.16 + 10 years * 20 events/year * 0.1

    = 35.2 + 20

    = 55.2 more wins



    He's got 11 wins already, so that would give him 66 wins total - well short of Tiger, but well clear of everyone else in recent memory.

    If 1 out of every 6 wins is a major, that would give him 11. A lot of luck, and maybe he gets to 14.
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