MD/DC/VA Golfers - Twelve Monkeys Mental Divergence

[FAbb]

I've been building up taking swings for weeks, and finally got out for a round yesterday. I walked Waverly, with the artist formerly known as PQ.

The course was super wet (shocker, I know), but actually not terribly soft, considering all the rain we had. Unfortunately they weren't able to cut the greens, so they were slow AF. I was really shocked at how good the course looked though. It was a couple dry days, and fairway+green mowing away from being REALLY good. The greens were marked up from the massive amount of play the covid era has brought on, but not terrible. Just based on the extreme heat and drought we had for so long, I was expecting to see sparse places in the rough, and burnout in areas. It was pristine. Too bad they're aerating next week. We'll have to wait until late August or early September to really have a chance to see peak conditions.

My game was predictably sloppy. I probably should have been practicing my chipping and putting while I was recovering, but I just didn't feel like it, knowing I wasn't playing anyways. That's stuff I can clean up. I'm still making some tentative swings, and not quite hitting full distance, but it's not far off, and I feel good. I hit a bunch of fairways and greens. There were certainly enough encouraging signs, that I feel like I'll be able to bring my play back up to where it was pre-injury, before the fall portion of the golf season.

Above all else, it just felt great being back out there. I love being out there chasing the game. I love the walk. I love the time out there with friends. It's great for the soul.

[dcmidnight]

Here's the thing with 4 players. The lowest I saw was Brooks at 10-1 so say City takes Brooks and three other high odds guys, 10 / 12 / 15 / 15.

If he's going to bet $4 with you (for maths sake). If he wins, he wins only $4.

But if he takes that $4 that he was going to bet and puts $1 on each of his players - he's going to make at least $7 ($10 - 1 -1 1) profit and up to $12 profit ($15 - 1 -1 -1) if he wins.

The average profit for a win would be $10 so I guess a fair odds would be +250. If City (or whoever) puts up $10, you put up $25.

(double checking math)

[GooseHook]

I'm constantly reminded of my high school baseball years. I've always been a solid athlete but suffer from some of the worst mental/muscle memory decay and it takes near daily practice to maintain good habits. The best drill by far for me is to imagine doing standing cable pulls ala lawnmower cranks to feel the right hip motion.

Working from home now through at least next May, at least I will be able to watch all the majors from my couch.

[TheCityGame]

I feel like 8 to 10 depending on the field. fewer back in the days when Tiger was winning 1 out of 3 events.

So, Brooks right now is 10-1 at the site I was looking at. If that was a "fair price", that would indicate he has a 1/11 chance of winning (10-1 odds means for every 1 you win, you lose 10, so 1/11). Now, given that you're paying juice, let's say his real odds of winning are 1/13. (maybe 1/12. Fudge factor).

being mutually exclusive events (only one winner), we can add the separate probabilities of winning for every player.

I did this.

I had to add up the first 9 guys (I got tiger in there) until the probability reached 50%.

So, the whole thing is kind of fudgy, but that "feels" about right to me.

I think if you offered most people the top 9 guys, they'd jump at that. 4? No. 6/7 you get guys thinking about which side they like.

[TheCityGame]

Yeah, that's a good way to look at it too.

[ALTSean]

Squirrel betting is at least 50 / 50 odds, unless you have some insider info on the squirrel.

[FAbb]

Here's a hot-take on early extension - it's not all bad. I early extend some, and I'm ok with it. It might limit my potential as a golfer some. Might. But I've also NEVER had a single issue with my back, and I've made a lot of golf swings in my relatively short time walking the earth. Look at the extreme opposite of early extension. This just screams of future body issues, in my opinion.

 

Compare that to Kenty's boy.

 

Who do you think is going to play longer, without issues?

[GooseHook]

@FAbb I agree, but there is a point where it starts gunking up your swing path and arc bottom. Back issues for sure in the long term for your top guy, but if you have severe EE and can't rotate then the lead knee is toast.

[Kent01putt]

Fabb I have played this game a little longer than most on here. Never had a back problem until I was 63 and started trying the early extension. You may be on to something with that thought.

[thechief16]

If I hit it like Fabb, I wouldn't worry about a little EE either. But my EE makes me super flippy and if I don't hit balls 3-4 times week (which I haven't for like 10 years) I cant keep the ball on the planet.

I never gave any thought to EE as a medical concern. Nor have I ever tried to EE. That's a new one to me.

[GooseHook]

what's the deal right now, no streaming available for PGA Championship?

[ALTSean]

I think you have to have ESPN+ to stream the early coverage.

[thechief16]

ESPN+. $4.99 isn't terrible, but be forewarned: Matthew Berry is the lead voice for the Tiger/JT/Rory featured group. He appears to (a) know nothing about golf and (b) have gargled with razorblades this morning. And there are commercials..

[dcmidnight]

Yeah I think the ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+ bundle is worth it for $12 but if not I would buy ESPN+ for the soccer anyway.

[GooseHook]

Thanks, remembered my brother in law has a login to use.

 

[aiyyer]

Worth the money for the soccer.

[TheCityGame]

I'm not watching golf till saturday.

I could shell out 5 bucks for something, but man I just hate STREAMING CREEP.

5 bucks here for this. 7 bucks there for that. If you want golf channel, there doesn't seem to be a way to even start a package for less than 35 a month.

And then there's Shudder if you want to watch some horror.

And then there's Crunchy Roll. if you want anime.

And then there's CBS whatever if you want Star Trek.

And Apple TV if you want whatever.

Pretty soon, you're shelling out $100+ a month and there are definitely 3 or 4 services that you might want and use, but in the last month you definitely paid 30 bucks for a few of them and watched about 2 hours of content on them.

And, somehow it's still better than the old days.

Right now I have netflix, HBO MAX, and locast for networks (I have Prime, too, but that's for more than TV). So, I'm basically out about 30 a month, and I feel like there's more tv through that than I care to watch.

I do miss golf, but not as much as I hate paying for things I don't use.

I paid for NBA League Pass and I've really been enjoying that. It cost me what I was paying per month for YouTube TV which I cancelled a few months back. It's a good app. Not perfect, but I've been loving bubble NBA so far.

[FAbb]

The coverage on ESPN yesterday was great. Shot, shot, shot, shot, all over the course. There was minimal fluff time.

Watching Bryson hit drives is mesmerizing. They said on the broadcast, he's like a power lifter getting ready for a lift, when he's on the tee. Then he leaned on his driver to pick up a tee, and snapped it. lolz.

I also thought the formal announcing of the players on the first tee was hilarious, with no fans to provide a reaction.

[eagle1997]

There's still free TV via an HD antenna for local broadcasting/live sports. You'll also get lowfi episodes of JAG.

[willboyrd]

If we get coverage like yesterday all week then $4.99 for a month and cancelling is a fantastic price.

 

Golf announcers are pretty hilarious though. Almost as if they all show up to the venue with absolutely no knowledge about any players. During JT/Tiger/Rory feature group, Curtis Strange made a remark that Tiger gets frustrated too easily and he should stay more calm and levelheaded like JT and Rory. JT, who is known to run pretty hot, preceded to start chucking clubs on like 3 of the next 5 tee balls LOL.

 

But great coverage in terms of the number of shots showed, the different ways to stream from the ESPN+ are also cool. You can do multicast and watch a couple feature groups along with regular coverage so you're basically ALWAYS watching a shot. Really well done and 2353209X better than the bullcrap CBS coverage that seems like it's basically a platform for Jim Nantz to try to win an Emmy instead of broadcasting a live sporting event.

[ALTSean]

Agree, but I looked at is as paying $4.99 to watch the PGA Championship and then I'll cancel.

[GooseHook]

Curtis Strange was a hoot. He was talking like it's some secret tour sauce that you score better when playing from the fairway.

I think Olin Browne and Stuart Appleby were doing the Scott/Fowler/DeChambeau group and they were even better. Appleby went on his own monologue about Adam Scott like "sooo no homo, but I would def hit it"

[tungstenplug]

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Edited February 26, 2023 by tungstenplug

[TheCityGame]

The fairways are cut so narrow that its actually difficult to hit them with fairway wood/driving iron, so the guys are just hitting driver and hoping to catch fairway or have a more lofted club from the rough. I can miss the fairway with any club so this strategy makes sense to me

 

Completely valid strategy. Richie Hunt has mentioned that here before that it usually makes more sense to hit driver than 3W or hybrid.

I think for most of us -- not just pros and not just low handicappers -- a miss is a miss. Yeah, OK, a missed driver can go further off line than a missed hybrid, but I don't think you should be strategizing based on "my miss with a hybrid has a better chance of being in play than my miss with a driver."

The ONLY time I think you shouldn't hit driver is when a "good drive" gets you into trouble (like a B+ drive). . .like going through a fairway into a hazard. I never like going to a 3W because a fairway is narrow.

The worst shot in golf is when you make the safe play off the tee and still get in trouble. The second worst is when you make the safe play off the tee and leave such a challenging shot in, that you make bogey. . . think a tree lined hole playing 390 and you hit your hybrid 215 and hit your driver 260. The difference between a PW and a 6 iron into the green.

[FAbb]

think a tree lined hole playing 390 and you hit your hybrid 215 and hit your driver 260. The difference between a PW and a 6 iron into the green.

That's really the kicker, for me personally. I just don't feel like I even hit the ball far enough to club down on "short" par 4s like that. I'm already hitting longer clubs into the mid and long par 4s. I can't afford to voluntarily give myself longer clubs into the short holes, too. When I've got a chance to give myself a wedge approach, I like to seize it.

[FAbb]

Also agree about not clubbing down because of narrowness alone. It's usually more for staying short of something, like maybe a hazard on the far side of a dogleg hole.

[XHoop24]

I've been messing around a bit with GolfMetrics app - which is Broadie's stroked gained system. It definitely pushes you this way. I've really enjoyed reviewing the numbers at the end of the round and looking at my best and worst shots. There the obvious ones - a drive OB, etc. But anything off the tee that is less than driver, and not hit perfect, ends up as a 'minus' shot. There is a short par 4 that I've always hit 4 iron on, but when looking back at strokes gained it shows how hard it is to gain any strokes with that shot. Anything in the rough with a 4 iron is automatically a 'minus' shot. The app obviously doesn't know the risk of the specific hole you are playing. But assuming there are no hazards, OB, the strokes gained are pushing you to hit the longer clubs.

[willboyrd]

Watched Bryson's presser from yesterday and man oh man is he a tool. Not-so-humble bragging about his ball speeds and astonishment that his driver shaft hadn't broken yet, yada yada yada. Then the commentators were talking about his driver shaft breaking and said 'not sure, but pretty sure if the driver head would have cracked or caved in, he wouldn't have been able to replace it'. Not true at all, assuming the other facts were the same and it was from normal play.

Golf is such an incredible sport. Rules are still somewhat of a mystery even to those who play it avidly, watch it, and, apparently, even those that commentate on it, professionally, for a living.

 

Can you imagine watching Sunday Night Football and they are doing a slow-mo replay of a catch on the sidelines and Al Michaels says 'Now I'm pretty sure he needs to have two feet down in this situation in order for it to be a catch, but I'll have to check on that'?

 

Golf is the best.

[Golfer827]

Flipping it back to Monday with Domes at Chambersburg:

 

Cool, I delivered there once or twice. It's in the neighboring village of 'Scotland' off I-81. The course looked nice, the few times I've been around there.

[SullGolf]

I know the hole XHoop is referring to and I totally disagree with his GolfMetrics approach. Hitting 4 iron is the play.

Its a 300 yard slight dogleg left that has thick trees on the right and less thick trees on the left. You hit a good 4 iron you’ll have 90 in. If you hit a flare 4 iron you’ll have 120 in from the right rough. If you hit a flare driver you are behind the trees and punching back out. You hit a pull driver you are behind the trees and punching back out. It brings in a lot of trouble that his app doesn’t account for since it only looks at distance. 4 iron removes all of the trouble and still puts a wedge in your hand.