NFL Weekly Picks 2023

nsxguy · January 1

3 minutes ago, chisag said:

... I have only had it happen a few times when I played with points. It was an eye opener.

I'm confused. Again.

A money line bet is without points, no ?

i.e. the game itself would have to end in a tie for the bet to be a tie on both sides. Not so ?

There haven't been any ties this year in the NFL.

NJBigFish22 · January 1

My unsolicited thoughts on Barry Sanders. He was probably the most electrifying and entertaining back. The runs he made out of nothing was impressive. It’s a shame he played for the Lions and retired early. If he played behind the Cowboys line he probably woukd have averaged 16-1800 yards a season and definitely woukd hold the rushing record.

Qqq123xx · January 1

10 minutes ago, NJBigFish22 said:

Did he say Hello Friends when he got tackled!

Lol. No think more like Hello Clown, eat my dirt.

Petethreeput · January 1

I have to say, looking at others top 2’s the Nigerian Nightmare was a flash in the pan. There have been some great running backs through the years. I won’t change my pick, but dang it is easily questioned.

NCLancer · January 1

28 minutes ago, Qqq123xx said:

Jim Nance

Jim Nance

touch · January 1

*Thru NCL

Favorite Running Backs

Barry Sanders lll

Eric Dickerson l

Gale Sayers l

Marcus Allen ll

Terrell Davis l

Walter Payton ll

Christian Okoye l

John Riggins l

Bo Jackson l

Earl Campbell l

Chuck Foreman l

Joe Morris l

touch · January 1

Our Picks Week 17 Final Edition

P3P Atlanta Houston SEA/PGH Over

Q NE/BUFF Over ATL/CHI Over Baltimore

chisag Chicago LA Rams Tampa

TL Detroit LA Rams Tampa

imk New England Arizona Washington

LP NYJ/CLE Under LAR/NYG Over NO/TPA Over

NJBF Tampa New England Houston

NCL DET/DAL Over Seattle Green Bay

DMM Detroit LA Chargers Miami

nsx CAR/JAX Over MIA/BAL Over NE/BUF Over

CH Detroit Seattle Buffalo

doc DET/DAL Under NY Giants Buffalo

Lines for Picks Week 17

Thursday

NY Jets at Cleveland -7 1/2 36

Saturday

Detroit at Dallas -6 1/2 53 1/2

Sunday

New England at Buffalo -12 40 1/2

Carolina at Jacksonville -6 1/2 37 1/2

New Orleans at Tampa -3 42 1/2

Atlanta at Chicago -3 39

Tennessee at Houston -3 1/2 42 1/2

Arizona at Philadelphia -10 1/2 47 1/2

San Fran -13 1/2 at Washington 48 1/2

Miami at Baltimore -3 47

LA Rams -6 1/2 at NY Giants 42

Las Vegas at Indy-3 44

Pittsburgh at Seattle -3 1/2 41 1/2

LA Chargers at Denver -5 1/2 38 1/2

Cincinnati at Kansas City -7 1/2 45 1/2

Green Bay at Minnesota -1 1/2 46

NO Monday Night Game

tatertot · January 1

2 hours ago, chisag said:

... Even though it is "favorite" and not "greatest" I don't see how Barry Sanders won't be on every list but after that it is really tough. Gale Sayers, Walter Payton, OJ Simpson 🙄 and Christian McCaffrey will be on that list by the time he retires.

Barry Sanders
Gale Sayers

... Btw I was in The Express, the Ernie Davis story and had he lived and played in the NFL he would be on that list.

Totally agree ... The man combined class and ability like no other.

My other pick is only the greatest football player (greatest athlete/sportsmen?) who ever lived ...

Jim Brown

Barry Sanders

touch · January 1

Happy New Year Picks Thread bunch ! ⭐🥂

touch · January 1

*Thru tatertot

Favorite Running Backs

Barry Sanders llll

Eric Dickerson l

Gale Sayers l

Marcus Allen ll

Terrell Davis l

Walter Payton ll

Christian Okoye l

John Riggins l

Bo Jackson l

Earl Campbell l

Chuck Foreman l

Joe Morris l

Jim Brown l

Qqq123xx · January 1

8 minutes ago, touch said:

*Thru tatertot

Favorite Running Backs

Barry Sanders llll

Eric Dickerson l

Gale Sayers l

Marcus Allen ll

Terrell Davis l

Walter Payton ll

Christian Okoye l

John Riggins l

Bo Jackson l

Earl Campbell l

Chuck Foreman l

Joe Morris l

Jim Brown l

You seem to be missing someone, so.....

Edited January 1 by Qqq123xx

chisag · January 1

49 minutes ago, nsxguy said:

I'm confused. Again.

A money line bet is without points, no ?

i.e. the game itself would have to end in a tie for the bet to be a tie on both sides. Not so ?

There haven't been any ties this year in the NFL.

... Duh, the confusion is mine. There is a reason I shouldn't bet for a living. 🤪 Yes, a game with points can't end in a tie for both teams. Just myownself that took the points and ended in a tie and thought "well at least it's tie so I get my original bet back". Ummm no.

braincramp52 · January 1

6 hours ago, NJBigFish22 said:

Bears keep getting better, that means they will screw up and keep Fields, just like the fans wanted all along!😎

As much as I'm not sold on fields, he's not the problem though. Harrison and a couple nasty offensive linemen would go a long way.

nsxguy · January 1

1 hour ago, chisag said:

... Duh, the confusion is mine. There is a reason I shouldn't bet for a living. 🤪 Yes, a game with points can't end in a tie for both teams. Just myownself that took the points and ended in a tie and thought "well at least it's tie so I get my original bet back". Ummm no.

And now my muddled brain gets worse.

A "normal" bet, with points, CAN end in a tie. Those bets are pushes; i.e. NO bet. So, if you give or take points and the result is a tie, NO blood/bet. You do NOT lose that game.

A money-line bet ? THAT I have no idea but I can't imagine the books win on a tie game - if there ever IS one.

Back when I bet with the bookie, I never bet the money line; the money line bet being betting a team to WIN outright, regardless of the point spread. i.e. NO points.

Since this bet does NOT involve a point spread, if you pick the favorite you give the book odds. Pick the dog and he is giving you odds.

As in the bet you showed us. YOU bet ($100) on the favorite so when the favorite won you only got $83(?). Had you lost you'd have owed $100. Had you bet the dog and it won you'd have been paid about $118. Had the favorite won you'd have lost 100.

With moneyline bets there is virtually always a winner since a real tie game, at least in the NFL, are very rare. But I can't imagine, if there WAS a "push", it'd be a loss to the bettor.

The bets we are MOST familiar with the ones in our contest; giving/taking points.

A bet WITH points involved,,,,,, you, the bettor, ALWAYS lay odds, usually, but nowadays not always, 10%. So whether you take the favorite or the dog you are risking 110 while standing to win 100. a PUSH is "No bet".

The ONLY pushes I've ever seen that resulted in a lo$$ were with those old "Parlay" tickets (see below). Pick 4 out of 4 and you'd win 10X your bet. 5 out of 5, 15X your bet,,,,,,,,,,, and so on. But if any game lost, you lose the entire bet - just like betting parlays now.

But, with those tickets, a push was a LOSS of the entire bet.

With current parlays, aiui, that push game would be disregarded and the resultant # of teams reduced by that one "push" and the payouts adjusted accordingly - IF you win all the games of course.

So currently, if you bet a 5-game parlay and 1 game ties, your parlay would THEN be reduced to a 4-team parlay with the remaining 4 teams and if you won you'd be paid according to the 4-team parlay bet.

Here's a sample of those old-time parlay tickets

nsxguy · January 1

3 hours ago, NCLancer said:

Chuck Foreman

Joe Morris

Silly wabbit.

You don't click on "Copy image link" and paste it here.

You click on "Copy image" and paste it inline.

How on earth did you win the contest ?!?!?!

CONGRATS !!!

Edited January 1 by nsxguy

tatertot · January 1

Bengals trail the Chiefs by 5 in the 4th ... Browning moves up in pocket, gets hit as he throws, ball is a wounded duck that gets past the LOS and falls harmlessly to the ground, 10 yards from Joe Mixon ... BUT WAIT ... Refs call intentional grounding ... On a play where the QB got hit from behind AFTER he started the throwing motion.

At this point, it's either total incompetence, senility, or simply fraud.

Triple Lindy · January 1

5 hours ago, tatertot said:

Bengals trail the Chiefs by 5 in the 4th ... Browning moves up in pocket, gets hit as he throws, ball is a wounded duck that gets past the LOS and falls harmlessly to the ground, 10 yards from Joe Mixon ... BUT WAIT ... Refs call intentional grounding ... On a play where the QB got hit from behind AFTER he started the throwing motion.

At this point, it's either total incompetence, senility, or simply fraud.

I saw that, too. The ball bounced to the intended receiver because of the hit on Browning. How can that be intentional grounding?

deadsolid...shank · January 1

7 hours ago, tatertot said:

Bengals trail the Chiefs by 5 in the 4th ... Browning moves up in pocket, gets hit as he throws, ball is a wounded duck that gets past the LOS and falls harmlessly to the ground, 10 yards from Joe Mixon ... BUT WAIT ... Refs call intentional grounding ... On a play where the QB got hit from behind AFTER he started the throwing motion.

At this point, it's either total incompetence, senility, or simply fraud.

And the scary part. It’s getting worse and more frequent. These type of blatant, glaring bad calls are happening almost every game. It used to be the really bad ones were at least spaced out over the season. But they’re becoming a regular occurrence.

chisag · January 1

11 hours ago, braincramp52 said:

As much as I'm not sold on fields, he's not the problem though. Harrison and a couple nasty offensive linemen would go a long way.

... Then we just disagree and that's cool. Although a few more nasty linemen would be awesome. Fields has looked bad against every good defense. He has looked pretty good against every bad defense after coming back from his injury, but mostly because of his crazy running ability. He still can't read a defense and if his 1st read isn't open he either takes a sack or scrambles and that can be electric or a wasted down. But he is missing open WR's. His kind of play against bad teams is what make many QB's look "good enough" to stick around but they implode in big game. If the Bears didn't have the first pick and a chance at a franchise QB I would be on board for another year of Fields. But look at it this way BC, what would the Bears look like with Stroud playing QB? With the Bears running game, a good play action QB should be rated in the top 10 easily. I was OK keeping Fields last year because they got another 1st round pick this year and Moore, which was the key to the trade.

... I said it before but after being a die hard Da Bearz fan for 44 years, if they don't take a franchise QB in April I give up and will switch my allegiance to the Cardinals. 54 starting QB's is enough. I have to think Poles and Warren are smart enough to know they need Williams or Maye.

nsxguy · January 1

Agree, more bad calls this year than last. That Browning/Mixon call was terrible. And I don't watch nearly as many games as a lot of people.

The problem is judgment calls with no review.

I suspect at some point, in the not-too-distant future, some of these penalty calls will be subject to review; not just the officials getting together to decide what they really saw.

chisag · January 1

8 hours ago, tatertot said:

Bengals trail the Chiefs by 5 in the 4th ... Browning moves up in pocket, gets hit as he throws, ball is a wounded duck that gets past the LOS and falls harmlessly to the ground, 10 yards from Joe Mixon ... BUT WAIT ... Refs call intentional grounding ... On a play where the QB got hit from behind AFTER he started the throwing motion.

At this point, it's either total incompetence, senility, or simply fraud.

... I am all for protecting the QB so I don't mind the rules overly protecting them. But they need to change the name from "intentional grounding". What else do you call a play where the QB is about tp be sacked and throws the ball intentionally 10 feet short of a covered RB to avoid a sack? But that was just a bad call on Browning given the leeway NFL QB's get. I think the ball would have been short and in the ground but near enough to the WR if he had not been hit while throwing. In a slight defense of the Refs, I initially thought it should have been grounding until I saw a different camera angle on the replay. But the HR should be looking right at the QB when he is about to be hit so he should have seen that.

chisag · January 1

... I don't agree with a Morrissey often because he is like most columnists and posts click bait, but I think todays column is spot on:

"On a snowy Sunday in Chicago, fans chanted for the Bears to keep quarterback Justin Fields, which is the type of thing fans do when enthusiasm, beer and a dreadful opponent are coursing through their veins.

But if general manager Ryan Poles allows himself to be heavily influenced by those chants or by Fields’ performance Sunday, he, too, should be given a Soldier Field sobriety test.

Fields was excellent in a 37-17 victory against the Falcons, throwing for 268 yards and passing and rushing for a touchdown. The key word in that last sentence was ‘‘Falcons.’’ They were so bad on both sides of the ball that you wondered whether black ties and talent were optional on their invites to the event.

Unless your head resides permanently in the sand, you know Poles has a decision to make in the offseason. The Bears clinched the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft Sunday when the Panthers lost to the Jaguars and the Cardinals beat the Eagles. Poles can use it on one of the top two college quarterbacks — USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye — or he can hold on to Fields and use his high draft picks to build around him.

One good game against a bad team shouldn’t matter as much as politicking fans think it should. Thirty-seven starts in three seasons should. I fall on the side of moving on from Fields, but I will say I’ve never seen a more polarizing debate over a quarterback than this one. It’s like one of those drawings in which one person sees a rabbit and another sees a duck. Both think the other is crazy. Both might be right about that.

The people who look at Fields and see a great quarterback are the loudest, though with considerably less proof. One of the keep-Fields arguments often proffered is that it would be a mistake to begin again with another young quarterback, to restart the clock, to throw away the previous three years of development. But when a Super Bowl title is the only thing that matters, that argument collapses in on itself. If Poles doesn’t think Fields is a great quarterback who can lead the Bears to a title, then he has to move on. He’s not in it for fans to be entertained by Fields’ running ability.

Presumably, he’s in it to win it. If Poles thinks Williams or Maye is a championship quarterback, then he has to act on that. Great quarterbacks are rare. If Poles thinks Fields can be great, then he needs to act on that, too. I’d argue that three years of game tape have shown what Fields is — and it’s not what the Bears should be looking for if they’re chasing a title.

Another keep-Fields argument states that the Bears have a great defense and thus don’t need an exceptional quarterback. That’s incredibly presumptuous. The Bears have a good defense that has the potential to be dominant. But you don’t skimp on a quarterback because of the potential on the other side of the ball. Especially in Chicago, which regularly overvalues its teams and players.

CBS’ announcers said Sunday that if the Bears don’t want Fields, another team surely will. That probably sent a shiver through Bears fans, but fear isn’t a reason to keep the kid, either. In isolation, without regard for whom the Bears were playing, Fields’ performance was achingly beautiful, one that spoke of what might have been or what can be, depending on your perspective. He got out of jams no one without a cape should be able to. He threw mostly with precision, something that hasn’t always been the case during his time in Chicago.

Was it real? The answer is that somebody forgot to tell the Falcons it’s a good idea to put a defender on Bears receiver DJ Moore.
Moore was open so many times that he’s being treated for loneliness. He finished with nine catches for 159 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons also chose not to put a pass rush on Fields. It was mindnumbingly dumb.

Was this game a reflection of how far Fields has come or a reflection of the Falcons’ defense? With a new year upon us, let’s be kind and say there was some of both. Fields said he loved everything about this game, especially the chants of fans who want him playing for the Bears next season.

‘‘I heard it,’’ he said. ‘‘It was great.’’’ If this was his last appearance at Soldier Field as a Bear, it was a nice way to go out — with a fine performance against an amenable opponent."

touch · January 1

Week 18 Lines for Picks

The last week of the regular season.

* Remember many of these lines reflect teams already highly seeded in the Playoffs resting starters.

Saturday Jan 6th

Pittsburgh -3 1/2 at Baltimore 37 1/2

Houston at Indy -1 47

Sunday

Tampa -5 1/2 at Carolina 37 1/2

Jacksonville -3 1/2 at Tennessee 40 1/2

Cleveland at Cincinnati -5 40

Atlanta at New Orleans -4 41 1/2

NY Jets at New England -2 32

Minnesota at Detroit -5 45

Philadelphia -6 at NY Giants 42 1/2

Dallas -13 1/2 at Washington 46 1/2

Chicago at Green Bay -3 44

LA Rams at San Fran -5 42 1/2

Kansas City at LA Chargers -1 1/2 35 1/2

Seattle -3 at Arizona 47 1/2

Denver at Las Vegas -2 1/2 38

Buffalo -3 at Miami 50

golfortennis · January 1

15 hours ago, NJBigFish22 said:

My unsolicited thoughts on Barry Sanders. He was probably the most electrifying and entertaining back. The runs he made out of nothing was impressive. It’s a shame he played for the Lions and retired early. If he played behind the Cowboys line he probably woukd have averaged 16-1800 yards a season and definitely woukd hold the rushing record.

That is tough to say, though. I suppose one could argue that the tackles for loss would have been greatly diminished, but I'm not sure the type of offense the Cowboys ran wouldn't have stifled him to a certain degree.

CHuntsman · January 1

17 hours ago, touch said:

The last day of the 2023 New Years Eve NFL Picks Thread Poll

It's simple, name your two favorite RB's of all time.

1. Eddie George

2. Kevin Mack

CHuntsman · January 1

Week 17 Results

1. DET W +5pts

2. BUF L 0pts

3. SEA L 0pts

+5pts total

touch · January 1

*Thru CHuntsman

Favorite Running Backs

Barry Sanders llll

Eric Dickerson l

Gale Sayers l

Marcus Allen ll

Terrell Davis l

Walter Payton ll

Christian Okoye l

John Riggins l

Bo Jackson l

Earl Campbell l

Chuck Foreman l

Joe Morris l

Jim Brown l

Eddie George l

Kevin Mack l

Triple Lindy · January 1

Team TL isn’t resting any starters this week - we want to keep the downward momentum going! I believe I have a Power Play remaining and plan to give it 1 more go.

Week 18 Picks

Tampa -5.5 over Carolina

Tampa looked awful against the Saints, but Carolina has looked awful against everyone. This is my only “away” pick.

Detroit -5 over Minny

Lions will be venting their anger over the bad call and have an outside shot at the #2 seed.

New Orleans -4 over Atlanta

Both teams can still win the NFC South, but Atlanta looked completely inept against Chicago. New Orleans needs Tampa to lose to Carolina, which is unlikely, but the Superdome will be rockin’ regardless.

I’m trying to find teams that have something to play for against teams that just want the season to end, much like Team TL. These are early week selections, subject to change. Power Play selection to follow once I lock in the final picks.

NCLancer · January 1

WEEK 17 PICKS:

DET/DALLAS OVER 53 1/2 LOSS

SEATTLE -3 1/2 LOSS

GREEN BAY +1 1/2 WIN

1-2 5 PTS

180

+5

185 PTS YTD

28-23 YTD

touch · January 1

11 minutes ago, Triple Lindy said:

Team TL isn’t resting any starters this week - we want to keep the downward momentum going! I believe I have a Power Play remaining and plan to give it 1 more go.

Week 18 Picks

Tampa -5.5 over Carolina

Tampa looked awful against the Saints, but Carolina has looked awful against everyone. This is my only “away” pick.

Detroit -5 over Minny

Lions will be venting their anger over the bad call and have an outside shot at the #2 seed.

New Orleans -4 over Atlanta

Both teams can still win the NFC South, but Atlanta looked completely inept against Chicago. New Orleans needs Tampa to lose to Carolina, which is unlikely, but the Superdome will be rockin’ regardless.

I’m trying to find teams that have something to play for against teams that just want the season to end, much like Team TL. These are early week selections, subject to change. Power Play selection to follow once I lock in the final picks.

Isn't it swell that Team TL and Team LP get a fresh start with the Playoffs Contest.

Yeah Baby! Let's both turn it around. 🎲

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