Is the Masters lottery “random”?

2

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  • sekrahsekrah Members Posts: 864 ✭✭
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #32
    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just people that do not understand/ignore how math works.




    There's no way it's "millions of people" submitting tickets applications. You are way overestimating the size of golf's fan base and only a small percentage of those people actually have Augusta on their bucket list. Flight, Hotel, Tickets, not cheap.



    I think there's plenty of anecdotal evidence that odds are WAY better than 100-1. Estimated attendance each day is around 40,000. Even if only 10,000 of these are going to the public, if 500,000 people (I'd be surprised if it's higher than that, it's probably a bit lower, Masters.Com does an excellent job weeding out spammers) enter for 2 tickets for each day of the event, you have 1% chance of winning any given day. You're up to around 6.8% to win at least one day. I suspect our odds are a better than that, maybe around 10-12%. I think if you did a poll of GolfWrx of people who submitted apps, it would come in around that percentage. That still means you could easily miss 15 years in a row or win three years in a row if you're lucky.
  • SC4lifeSC4life Members Posts: 58 ✭✭
    I got lucky enough to get Wednesday practice tickets two years ago. Well, the weather didn't cooperate and we spent only about a total of an hour actually inside the gates. Fast forward two years later and I have been informed that I have been selected for 4 tickets for the Wednesday practice round again. Coincidence or is ANGC giving us a second chance? I don't know but I am thankful to be able to go again.
  • ray9898ray9898 Members Posts: 784 ✭✭
    Well...I 'randomly' got denied.....again.
  • bladehunterbladehunter Rain rain go the hell away ! south carolinaMembers Posts: 26,517 ✭✭
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #35
    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just people that do not understand/ignore how math works.




    So do you agree is impossible ? Or are you saying “ chin up , if you live 10,000 yeas you’re bound to get picked “ ? Wth?
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  • masamitsumasamitsu Members Posts: 2,495 ✭✭


    Well I'm O'fer forever still...




    Ditto. I remember filling out the form and mailing it in.
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  • grm24grm24 Western PAMembers Posts: 3,185 ✭✭
    sekrah wrote:

    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just people that do not understand/ignore how math works.




    There's no way it's "millions of people" submitting tickets applications. You are way overestimating the size of golf's fan base and only a small percentage of those people actually have Augusta on their bucket list. Flight, Hotel, Tickets, not cheap.


    Really? There are around 25 million golfers in the USA alone. You don't think a million or more people apply for tickets? Then factor in people from other parts of the world entering. Then as the threads have shown here people have other family members and friends submit applications that may not even be golf fans. Sorry but it's not just people from WRX and a few other places submitting entries.
  • grm24grm24 Western PAMembers Posts: 3,185 ✭✭


    So do you agree is impossible ? Or are you saying " chin up , if you live 10,000 yeas you're bound to get picked " ? Wth?
    Wth on your reply. All I'm saying is it's harder to win than people think. I apologize for presenting facts and logic to the discussion. They seem to have little place here anymore.
  • pmadden86pmadden86 Members Posts: 362 ✭✭
    Anyone know do they favor applications from addresses closer to the course? Seems logical since ppl from Ireland buying tickets might just flip them if flights come out too expensive. I'd just like to know, have I got less chance of bagging tix than John Doe in North Carolina?



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  • Ashley SchaefferAshley Schaeffer Members Posts: 2,064 ✭✭


    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>




    That could be good logic if they only selected one person. Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.


    Well... let's have more than one person selected. Think of a ticket winner selection as some sort of a function F:{A_1, A_2, ..., A_n} -> {YES, NO}^n which for each n applicant A produces a decision whether that applicant won or not. If the selection process is random, each output string of yeses and nos is equally likely, i.e occurs at a probability of 1/n.



    The number of tickets available is, say, k which is independent of number n as k is controlled by the committee but n can be anything. For any applicant, the probability of winning is k*(1/n)=k/n which means that if there are as many applicants as there are tickets, everybody wins (i.e. the probability =1). However, it is much more likely that k<n and once n goes up k/n goes down.



    We can't unconditionally say that odds get exponentially worse if the number of applicants increases but the odds do get worse in a pretty straightforward relationship with the number of applicants.




    Sure, but they definitely select more than one applicant. So, the post to which I responded was poorly reasoned.
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  • grm24grm24 Western PAMembers Posts: 3,185 ✭✭

    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>




    That could be good logic if they only selected one person. Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
    Doesn't matter that multiple people are drawn. Each drawing is it's own separate event and your odds of winning are the same for each drawing. If 100 people apply and you have 1 entry you have a 1% chance of winning the tickets for that draw. When the next winner is selected you still have the same 1% chance of winning,
  • BiggErnBiggErn Members Posts: 2,339 ✭✭
  • dcmidnightdcmidnight Marshals, BST Volunteer Mods Posts: 11,811 mod
    grm24 wrote:


    Really? There are around 25 million golfers in the USA alone. You don't think a million or more people apply for tickets? Then factor in people from other parts of the world entering. Then as the threads have shown here people have other family members and friends submit applications that may not even be golf fans. Sorry but it's not just people from WRX and a few other places submitting entries.




    Completely agree on all fronts. I'd say the number of applicants is probably way closer to a million than to 500,000 - especially once they made it so easy with the online system.
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  • bladehunterbladehunter Rain rain go the hell away ! south carolinaMembers Posts: 26,517 ✭✭
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #44
    grm24 wrote:



    So do you agree is impossible ? Or are you saying " chin up , if you live 10,000 yeas you're bound to get picked " ? Wth?
    Wth on your reply. All I'm saying is it's harder to win than people think. I apologize for presenting facts and logic to the discussion. They seem to have little place here anymore.




    i was literally trying to decide which way you leaned..hard or impossible? i lean towards improbable but some claim to have been picked so not impossible... Im pretty sure the guy you quoted claimed very hard too...so we all agree !! statistically its as close to impossible as it possibly can be.. BUT there is actually a chance ( so they claim)
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  • bladehunterbladehunter Rain rain go the hell away ! south carolinaMembers Posts: 26,517 ✭✭
    pmadden86 wrote:


    Anyone know do they favor applications from addresses closer to the course? Seems logical since ppl from Ireland buying tickets might just flip them if flights come out too expensive. I'd just like to know, have I got less chance of bagging tix than John Doe in North Carolina?



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    absolutely not.. ive applied since its been online and never picked.. I live and hour and 20 or so minutes away .... i could attend all 4 days and not buy a hotel room thats how easy it would be
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  • sekrahsekrah Members Posts: 864 ✭✭
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #46
    grm24 wrote:

    sekrah wrote:

    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just people that do not understand/ignore how math works.




    There's no way it's "millions of people" submitting tickets applications. You are way overestimating the size of golf's fan base and only a small percentage of those people actually have Augusta on their bucket list. Flight, Hotel, Tickets, not cheap.


    Really? There are around 25 million golfers in the USA alone. You don't think a million or more people apply for tickets? Then factor in people from other parts of the world entering. Then as the threads have shown here people have other family members and friends submit applications that may not even be golf fans. Sorry but it's not just people from WRX and a few other places submitting entries.




    Not a chance it's over a million. Not a CHANCE. If the tickets were a giveaway and all expenses paid, yes they'd get a million. Not everyone is you and I that wants to spend a $1000-$1500 on a trip to a Monday Augusta practice round. I know a pile of golfers that would roll their eyes at that.
  • sdigitsdigit Members Posts: 83 ✭✭
    I got chosen for the Wednesday practice round this year, first attempt. Got to take my son, high school golfer. Perfect timing since he will be graduating next year.
  • JackpotJohnnyJackpotJohnny Members Posts: 2,504 ✭✭
    Me and Everyone I know got denied again.
  • CheckJVCheckJV Male Model Members Posts: 2,106 ✭✭
    My chances went from 1 in a million or whatever the odds are to zero since my lottery account was lost by their system in 2018. I just called and talked to them and they have no record of me. And yes I have the confirmation email of my registration for the 2019 lottery.



    Oh well, 2020 here I come.



    BTW - They looked up all persons in my zip code in the lottery and there was only one (1). I find this almost unbelievable since it’s a fairly populated area with lots of golfing public. I would have assumed the number of applicants in my zip code would have been substantially higher. We are in easy driving distance to Augusta.
  • Ashley SchaefferAshley Schaeffer Members Posts: 2,064 ✭✭
    grm24 wrote:


    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>




    That could be good logic if they only selected one person. Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
    Doesn't matter that multiple people are drawn. Each drawing is it's own separate event and your odds of winning are the same for each drawing. If 100 people apply and you have 1 entry you have a 1% chance of winning the tickets for that draw. When the next winner is selected you still have the same 1% chance of winning,




    Then, you have multiple chances. Then, it's better than 1/100. Thanks.
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  • afriedafried Members Posts: 3
    grm24 wrote:


    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>




    That could be good logic if they only selected one person. Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
    Doesn't matter that multiple people are drawn. Each drawing is it's own separate event and your odds of winning are the same for each drawing. If 100 people apply and you have 1 entry you have a 1% chance of winning the tickets for that draw. When the next winner is selected you still have the same 1% chance of winning,




    So, so wrong. If 20 people out of 100 get selected you have a 20% chance of being selected. Not 1%. On that very first name pulled your odds of being selected that particular drawing is 1%. When the second name is drawn on that particular drawing you have a 1/99 chance, then 1/98 then 1/97 then 1/96, etc.. but ultimately 1 out of every 5 people who entered become selected.
  • AB1620AB1620 Members Posts: 21
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #52
    ceejay81 wrote:


    I have not been picked in 12 years. My buddy had the same streak going until last year and I was fortunate to be able to go with him to Monday's practice round. This year I got a few non golf fan friends to sign up for me - they were excited to do so. One of them actually won 3 Wednesday practice round tickets for me!



    I really have no idea how it works.




    Over the years I don't know if I have ever known someone to win Wednesday tickets. This year two out of the three people I personally know to get the tickets got Wednesday. Two of them it was his first time entering. The one that didn't get them got Tuesday.
  • is76550is76550 Members Posts: 1,313 ✭✭
    I am glad it's not just me that keeps getting denied... I am 0 for 8 thus far.
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  • sekrahsekrah Members Posts: 864 ✭✭
    edited Jul 5, 2018 #54
    CheckJV wrote:


    BTW - They looked up all persons in my zip code in the lottery and there was only one (1). I find this almost unbelievable since it’s a fairly populated area with lots of golfing public. I would have assumed the number of applicants in my zip code would have been substantially higher. We are in easy driving distance to Augusta.




    You guys are seriously overestimating the number of people entering for these tickets. Most don't know about it, and most of the rest wouldn't spend that much to go down for 1 day. There's 200+ people at my club.. I'd be shocked if 10 put in for them. Everyone I ask says no.
  • rsgolfhardrsgolfhard Members Posts: 101 ✭✭
    I know probably 20-30 of my friends who enter. One buddy won 4 tickets to monday. In my second year of trying i just won 2 Sunday tickets. I'm pretty excited. It's just dumb luck I guess of the draw.
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  • bscinstnctbscinstnct Members Posts: 26,578 ✭✭
    Its all manipulated with junk bonds.



    You cant win



  • RohlioRohlio Members Posts: 2,336 ✭✭
    I am 0'fer since 2008...
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  • heavy_hitterheavy_hitter Members Posts: 3,098 ✭✭
    sekrah wrote:

    grm24 wrote:

    sekrah wrote:

    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse as the number of applicants increase. These is no conspiracy. Just people that do not understand/ignore how math works.




    There's no way it's "millions of people" submitting tickets applications. You are way overestimating the size of golf's fan base and only a small percentage of those people actually have Augusta on their bucket list. Flight, Hotel, Tickets, not cheap.


    Really? There are around 25 million golfers in the USA alone. You don't think a million or more people apply for tickets? Then factor in people from other parts of the world entering. Then as the threads have shown here people have other family members and friends submit applications that may not even be golf fans. Sorry but it's not just people from WRX and a few other places submitting entries.




    Not a chance it's over a million. Not a CHANCE. If the tickets were a giveaway and all expenses paid, yes they'd get a million. Not everyone is you and I that wants to spend a $1000-$1500 on a trip to a Monday Augusta practice round. I know a pile of golfers that would roll their eyes at that.




    image/taunt.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':taunt:' /> I would say it is well over 1 million. There are over 240,000 people there for the week. 1 million people would mean that you would have a 1 in 4 chance of earning tickets. Just from Golf WRX members aren't getting them at this clip. With a 1 in 4 chance everyone here would have gotten tickets at least once in their lifetime.
  • Singapore JoeSingapore Joe Major? Winner? Members Posts: 1,598 ✭✭
    afried wrote:

    grm24 wrote:


    grm24 wrote:

    fly787 wrote:


    Seems rather impossible to me .....
    Really? Do the math. There are likely millions of people that submit application requests every year for the available practice/tournament round tickets. What do you seriously think your odds are that you should be selected? For example if only 100 people submitted applications for tickets your chance of being selected is 1%. Increase that to 1000 people and it's 1/10 of 1 percent. Great odds there huh?



    Your odds of being selected get exponentially worse from there as the number of applicants increase. <SMH>




    That could be good logic if they only selected one person. Otherwise, it's kinda crappy.
    Doesn't matter that multiple people are drawn. Each drawing is it's own separate event and your odds of winning are the same for each drawing. If 100 people apply and you have 1 entry you have a 1% chance of winning the tickets for that draw. When the next winner is selected you still have the same 1% chance of winning,




    So, so wrong. If 20 people out of 100 get selected you have a 20% chance of being selected. Not 1%. On that very first name pulled your odds of being selected that particular drawing is 1%. When the second name is drawn on that particular drawing you have a 1/99 chance, then 1/98 then 1/97 then 1/96, etc.. but ultimately 1 out of every 5 people who entered become selected.


    That is, assuming that each outcome is equally likely, i.e. for k tickets out of the pool of an applications the probability of being selected is indeed k/n. I just prefer thinking entropy rather than combinatorics. However, we don't know k, we don't know n and we certainly don't know whether the selection function they use is random or parameterised one way or another.



    Say, for three applicants Tom, Dick and Harry if the selection function is random and two of them are selected, each outcome is equally likely, i.e. the probability for each is 2/3. That is, over a large (say l) number of runs of the selection function each of the following outcomes occurs approximately l/3 times:

    {YES, YES, NO}

    YES, NO, YES}

    {NO, YES, YES}



    However, if the selection function is not random then the three outcomes can occur on any frequency and without knowing the parameterization of the selection function we can't really make any meaningful estimates of likelihoods.



    Just a random thought to get myself started for a new day.
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  • CheckJVCheckJV Male Model Members Posts: 2,106 ✭✭
    sekrah wrote:
    CheckJV wrote:


    BTW - They looked up all persons in my zip code in the lottery and there was only one (1). I find this almost unbelievable since it’s a fairly populated area with lots of golfing public. I would have assumed the number of applicants in my zip code would have been substantially higher. We are in easy driving distance to Augusta.




    You guys are seriously overestimating the number of people entering for these tickets. Most don't know about it, and most of the rest wouldn't spend that much to go down for 1 day. There's 200+ people at my club.. I'd be shocked if 10 put in for them. Everyone I ask says no.




    I wonder. I looked up the census numbers for my zip code. Well over 25,000 persons estimated for July 2017 in one of the fastest growing places in the USA. That equates to over 6,000 households if you assume 4 persons per. So only 1 entry per 6,000 plus households seems low to me. Could be wrong because I love golf, LOL.
  • broth518broth518 Channel 5 News Team Member Members Posts: 927 ✭✭
    I am 0 for 12 as well. I feel like people who get selected should not be able to get them for 5 years and let the rest of us go.



    I do like a lot of people feel like its rigged
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