At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...

[DBurns]

> @BeerPerHole said:

> Won't get into my background much but I have a good pulse on the macroeconomy. Golf will continue to decline in America, at a slow, steady pace. It will continue to get better with fits and starts around the Pacific rim and emerging economies. It's just mirroring the economics.

>

>

>

> I grew up around general aviation. My earliest memory is sitting in my dad's little Aircoupe while he shot landings in San Jose (now there's no general aviation there). Back then, and through my college years, little public airports were bustling with common men flying, washing and tinkering with their airplanes. Now, of the hangars that have not been demolished with the removal of such little airports are often filled with cars and boats. The airports are silent ghost towns, even on Saturdays. In the flightpath over my house to the local strip (formerly an air force base) 90% of the traffic is government aircraft. My point is that golf, being a luxury, will go the way of general aviation. GA was just the canary in the coal mine. Golf is one of the last miners still standing...

 

Been to Oshkosh lately? Booming. Most of my co-workers fly general aviation.

[North Butte]

In fairness, general aviation was always an extremely niche activity. In any given year something north of 10% of the USA population will play at least one round of golf. At no time in the past have even 1% of the USA population been licensed to fly an airplane.

[SavageCy]

> @"North Butte" said:

> > @SavageCy said:

> > I for one would welcome a decline. The attention and interest Tiger brought to the game resulted in an overabundance of hacks that seem to have bypassed the lessons/driving range and went straight to the course creating nothing but misery for the "competent" golfer. I'm tired of getting stuck behind groups where each player feels the need to stand over the ball for what seems like an eternity as they take half a dozen practice swings in order to hit a 30 yd worm burner. Not a big fan of the 6 hr round.

>

> Those people are not modeling on Tiger. They are modeling on Spieth or Day or one of the other modern-day, head-case slowpokes.

 

It has nothing to do with modeling after anybody but rather the fact that Tiger piqued the interest of a large sector of the population that had no interest in golf prior to his arrival. He made golf "cool".

[BeerPerHole]

> @DBurns said:

> > @BeerPerHole said:

> > Won't get into my background much but I have a good pulse on the macroeconomy. Golf will continue to decline in America, at a slow, steady pace. It will continue to get better with fits and starts around the Pacific rim and emerging economies. It's just mirroring the economics.

> >

> >

> >

> > I grew up around general aviation. My earliest memory is sitting in my dad's little Aircoupe while he shot landings in San Jose (now there's no general aviation there). Back then, and through my college years, little public airports were bustling with common men flying, washing and tinkering with their airplanes. Now, of the hangars that have not been demolished with the removal of such little airports are often filled with cars and boats. The airports are silent ghost towns, even on Saturdays. In the flightpath over my house to the local strip (formerly an air force base) 90% of the traffic is government aircraft. My point is that golf, being a luxury, will go the way of general aviation. GA was just the canary in the coal mine. Golf is one of the last miners still standing...

>

> Been to Oshkosh lately? Booming. Most of my co-workers fly general aviation.

I understand. But, Oshkosh is a gathering place for pilots from all around the country...and isn't it the headquarters for the EAA still? It better be busy or we're all dead. Here in California our small muni airports, for the most part, are drying up. The tarmacs have a couple hundred tie-downs and only 2 or 3 airplanes parked there. My old field (I'm looking at it now from my office) is gone and half covered with crummy stucko houses. I've heard that many of the old Cessnas and other private aircraft have been crated and shipped overseas to more robust markets. I DO hope I'm wrong about golf. Getting kids involved is going to be key.

 

[BeerPerHole]

A while back here I posted a somewhat tongue-in-cheek thread about how the local big practice range was crowded within 24 hours of Tiger winning the Masters this year. It still is. Like it or not...Tiger seems to have a big impact. It's also like the sportscasters have gotten the memo, "So...congrats on winning your first tournament! So, what do you think about Tiger?" Ugh...

[BeerPerHole]

> @"North Butte" said:

> In fairness, general aviation was always an extremely niche activity. In any given year something north of 10% of the USA population will play at least one round of golf. At no time in the past have even 1% of the USA population been licensed to fly an airplane.

Yeah, general aviation was the canary in the coal mine. Golf is more like the older, more frail coal miner.

 

[DevilDog]

Economy drives how many play golf. I can recall these same types of things about the demise of golf were being said in the 1970s because inflation was a big issue, gasoline prices shot up, and so on. Courses were pretty empty where I grew up at that time. Then in the early 80s, the economy got better and the courses started filling up. Then, early 90s it dropped again. When Tiger burst on the scene, he created a huge buzz which brought people out but also the economy was very good and people got out and played. Stayed that way until the economic downturn around 2008-2009. Now the economy is coming back and people are starting to play again. Won't be the Tiger level era to be sure but people will be playing.

[Soloman1]

> @DevilDog said:

> Economy drives how many play golf. I can recall these same types of things about the demise of golf were being said in the 1970s because inflation was a big issue, gasoline prices shot up, and so on. Courses were pretty empty where I grew up at that time. Then in the early 80s, the economy got better and the courses started filling up. Then, early 90s it dropped again. When Tiger burst on the scene, he created a huge buzz which brought people out but also the economy was very good and people got out and played. Stayed that way until the economic downturn around 2008-2009. Now the economy is coming back and people are starting to play again. Won't be the Tiger level era to be sure but people will be playing.

 

Wishful thinking, but golf in the US continues to lose about a million players per year.

[hanger129]

> @Soloman1 said:

> Wishful thinking, but golf in the US continues to lose about a million players per year.

I'm curious to know where you're getting that information from. Do you have any data on how many players are gained per year?

 

[Warrior42111]

https://www.ngf.org/golf-industry-research/#rounds-played

 

In short down almost 5% 2017-2018, interms of rounds played

[Oriolesfan138]

Golf is hard and expensive. Takes a real commitment to get into if you didn’t start playing young.

[Mych]

It's unsustainable in the current form. Courses take up too much valuable real estate and use too many resources for maintenance, which forces high costs that will eventually only be sustainable by private courses (subsidized by the members) or municipal courses (subsidized by government). Daily rate courses will not be profitable enough to reject the check from a developer. Golf courses will go the way of urban farms and factories. They made sense when that land had little value, but now they're better off just selling.

Also, very soon I think there will be a drawback in the tournament sponsorship and endorsement money in the pro game. The "Tiger effect" is dying and there isn't a replacement that I can see coming.

[Smingles]

Where golf grows or shrinks will largely be due to demographics and the economy IMO. Explosive suburban growth of the 80s, 90s, and early 2000s (where there is also ample land for courses) has altogether reversed with growth concentrating in major metro areas. Courses in these areas will tend to survive and thrive, which is where you get the "I can't get a weekend tee time before noon" phenomenon coming from while courses in your average rural or suburban community are having trouble staying open. Some dog tracks near me cost $60 for 18 + cart on the weekend, and are in absolutely awful condition, and are absolutely filled to the brim with 8 minute spaced tee times. They could charge an extra $20 a round and I don't think their tee sheet would shrink at all (and might give them the opportunity to actually reinvest in the course... but that's neither here nor there). The city owned courses are profitable and in great shape for municipals.

 

Economically the situation is a bit more complicated. While the economy continues to grow at a steady but mediocre pace, much of that growth is increasingly funneling upwards to the top 1, 5, 10% of earners-- much of it will never be spent back into the 'golf economy' as it were. I'm not making a political stand here, it is what it is. Private clubs that cater to this crowd will continue to do very well. Courses that serve the middle income American that aren't located in a major metro area will continue to struggle.

 

So the status of golf is complicated. What is clear from the NGF annual surveys is there is A LOT of demand to play golf, but IMO the economic + demographic/geographic issues will continue to put a lid on new growth. However, golf is very clearly not in an "irreversible decline," not even remotely close.

[mantan]

It seems like there is a bigger effort than ever to get kids into playing. As others have alluded to, most people reach a range in between HS and late 20s where an expensive game doesn't take priority. And a lot of people seem to get more active once they have started into their careers...but have to balance it with the time they spend with their family.

 

And the time demands for parents are a lot greater. I grew up in the 80s. Most of the sports seasons were a couple of months not year-round. And travel only occurred on school teams. Now parents shuttle their kids to year-round club sports leagues leaving a lot less time to practice and play.

My oldest is in college and my youngest is a HS senior. He stopped playing competitive soccer a year ago and I'm amazed how much free time I have. I can practice several days a week and play every weekend. I used to have to be creative to find time to practice or play. The Men's league has a lot of guys in the same boat and relatively few young dads.

[pricebbt]

I'll chime in based on my observations attending the St Jude last weekend. I was shocked at the number of attendees under 30. I'd say more than half were would fall in that category, myself included. Maybe because of the location, but it almost had the feel of an SEC football game/tailgate. I think the costs might keep a lot of that demographic from playing often, but it showed me that there is plenty of interest in golf among the younger crowd. As they get older and income increases, they may very well take up playing the game as well.

[DBurns]

Not there yet. I read at least two of these per week.

https://www.gwinnettdailypost.com/local/northwood-country-club-gwinnett-s-oldest-private-club-is-closing/article_e983e22c-d590-11e9-a7c5-2b8a0adeb210.html

[rangersgoalie]

Imo, the biggest risk is when Water will get so expensive or prohibitive to use in parts of the country that golf courses will not be able to operate

[HappyGilmoresBoots]

The Recession did a HUGE number on the golf courses around here...quite a few muni level courses closed down and were sold off for development, the private clubs lost memberships and had to go public, and the upper-tier public courses faltered and fell to the level of quality that the munis once occupied. Incidentally, at least one formerly-private club lost a huge number of its members because they didn't want to associate with the common plebs anymore, so that course sold itself into another ownership group and now focuses on fine dining instead of golf.

 

Realistically, golf isn't ever likely to completely vanish from the face of the earth. Any troubles that the sport is experiencing are just hiccups or obstacles to overcome. As the old saying goes "Adapt or die."

[CaddiesFault]

Here is a report stating that golf is on the rise in the USA for the first time in 14 years.

 

http://www.thegolfbusiness.co.uk/2019/06/golf-participation-in-the-usa-sees-first-rise-in-14-years/

[Soloman1]

The numbers in that article have been skewed by some deception. The definition of a "golfer" was changed to make the industry appear more healthy, so lenders would be more willing to lend to an industry that didn't appear to be in retreat.

 

In the early 1980's, a golfer was defined as someone who played eight times per year. Today, someone who goes to TopGolf once per year is defined as a golfer.

 

In 1981, 25 million people out of a US population of 229 million played golf at least eight times.

 

Today, there are 100 million more people and even with the new definition of a "golfer," the total is less than 25 million.

 

The number of rounds played picked up a little, but that was retiring Baby Boomers playing more rounds, not more players.

 

Of course, golf will never disappear, but it still isn't growing. If you're in the golf industry, you want growth. If you're a golfer, you probably don't want growth any more than you want more people on the roads where you live.

[CaddiesFault]

> @Soloman1 said:

> The numbers in that article have been skewed by some deception. The definition of a "golfer" was changed to make the industry appear more healthy, so lenders would be more willing to lend to an industry that didn't appear to be in retreat.

>

> In the early 1980's, a golfer was defined as someone who played eight times per year. Today, someone who goes to TopGolf once per year is defined as a golfer.

>

> In 1981, 25 million people out of a US population of 229 million played golf at least eight times.

>

> Today, there are 100 million more people and even with the new definition of a "golfer," the total is less than 25 million.

>

> The number of rounds played picked up a little, but that was retiring Baby Boomers playing more rounds, not more players.

>

> Of course, golf will never disappear, but it still isn't growing. If you're in the golf industry, you want growth. If you're a golfer, you probably don't want growth any more than you want more people on the roads where you live.

 

I agree the metrics have changed and golf is not as popular per capita as 20+ years ago, but metrics have changed for NYT best seller list, the billboard top 100, and many other things as technology and the world evolves.

 

Top golf etc... has been around a few years so I doubt they changed the qualifications for totaling golfers between 2017-2018, leading me to believe the # of golfers did go up from the previous year, albeit not back to the "golden age".

[Soloman1]

The definition was changed about 10 years ago.

[Golfnuck]

**At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible...**

 

What kind of question is this? Is the OP really trying to ask at what point will the decline of golf cause an irreversible drop such that it will completely disappear.

 

Seriously OP do you really think golf will 100% disappear??????

 

IMHO at no point will the decline of golf be irreversible. Golf will never disappear.

 

[Pete O'Tube]

**_At what point will the decline of golf be irreversible..._**

When it takes a four ball better Ball match in the Solheim Cup over 6 hours to play. We almost got there this week. I had more fun watching paint dry.

My point is that watching golf on TV can lead to people taking up the sport. See what happened when Tiger appeared on the scene. Any more like we saw from Gleneagles and the TV audience will wither away and so will golf as a pastime.

[MountainGoat]

Some background reading:

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-golf-is-handicapped-2014-12

https://money.cnn.com/2014/08/07/investing/golf-sport/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/05/why-america-fell-out-of-love-with-golf/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-watch-how-much-longer-can-golf-survive-2017-04-18

https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/golf-in-the-rough

https://golfoperatormagazine.com/decline-of-golf/

 

[Golfnuck]

None of those articles state that golf will decline to the point of no return as in disappear altogether which is what the OPs question/statement is.

 

Golf will certainly not have the mass appeal of the past few years with the Tiger effect. But is that realistic.

 

As most of the articles have stated golf is dependent on the economy. It takes both time and money.

 

There will always be a segment of the population with both time and money.

[Soloman1]

The original post says nothing about golf disappearing. It asks at what point will the decline be irreversible. I take that to mean a point that golf will not rebound or have a resurgence in popularity.

 

I think that it will continue to decline for years because society would have to change for golf participation to change. As long as succeeding generations are less wealthy that previous generations, golf will continue to decline. Housing, education and healthcare costs in the US are increasing faster than inflation and younger generations have higher debt with less income. There is simply no scenario that will create growth in golf.

[smashdn]

Lots of ways to comment on many aspects of this thread, hang on.

 

1) Do you differentiate between the "game of golf" and the "business of golf" which are 70+% intertwined? Without the ability to provide a course (course has to be profitable enough to stay open and beat the economics of instead turning it into a subdivision) the game of golf has no where to be played. Japan might be an example of this to an extent. Courses are few due to the scarcity of land, thus the cost of a membership is outside the ability of most Japanese golfers to be able to actually play the game. They instead hit balls at driving ranges.

 

2) In the areas where the demand for golf exists there is often the competing value of the land the course sits upon. I live not far from one such area. Micropolitan, college town, regional hub of all of the surrounding counties, total population in all those counties combined is around 750,000. Total of 4 public, 18 hole courses and 5 private/semi-private 18 hole courses, 2 public 9 holers and one private 9 holer. I know there is a rule of thumb for courses per so many population. I think we are underserved given the size of the county/city to the north of me and the fact that in the last 15 years we lost a public 18 hole, 2 public 9's, a private 9 and a public par three. The price of the land has turned three of those into subdivisions. The other public 9 is being redone as a driving range and a par three. There have been two stand alone driving ranges close. I guess you can argue that people don't golf here but to be honest the public courses are bland and not fun and packed to the point that a 9 hole walk is pushing three hours. No thanks. It seems to be a self-fulfilling prophecy that nobody wants to play golf due to the fact the average golfer is not provided with much worth golfing. I think this gets credited to Yogi Berra but, "Nobody goes there anymore, it is too crowded."

 

3) Golf is hard. It is hot. There is the potential for bugs and sunburns. The extent of the immediate confirmation and approval of your peers is limited to the other three folks in your foursome and perhaps the guys on the hole over or waiting on the tee. There are no beeps and boops and flashing lights. And it takes time to play. Time that takes people away from their phones and social media accounts.

 

4) We are Americans and we demand the best of both worlds. We want pristine conditions and we want cheap golf. We want the best toilet paper and we want a deal so we buy 90 rolls at a time from the mass merchant warehouse.

[Soloman1]

That's not the situation in Japan. Most Japanese golf courses are about $100 on weekdays, including a full locker, shower, lunch and no tipping. The grounds crew would commit ritual suicide in the parking lot if the course looked as shoddy as most US courses. The reason golf courses are full is because it's such a tremendous experience with great service in a clean, high class facility with staff who take pride in doing their jobs well, and will never accept a tip.

 

I played this course many, many times. Prov1 practice balls, stellar practice area, Jack Nicklaus design course (Yes, Nicklaus was there), incredible food included, locker, shower and more for about $100 on weekday.

http://www.pacificgolf.co.jp/ryugasaki/gallery.asp

 

Click on the gallery and virtual tour.

 

Where I can get that in the US for about $100?

[third-times-a-charm]

> @Soloman1 said:

> That's not the situation in Japan. Most Japanese golf courses are about $100 on weekdays, including a full locker, shower, lunch and no tipping. The grounds crew would commit ritual suicide in the parking lot if the course looked as shoddy as most US courses. The reason golf courses are full is because it's such a tremendous experience with great service in a clean, high class facility with staff who take pride in doing their jobs well, and will never accept a tip.

>

> I played this course many, many times. Prov1 practice balls, stellar practice area, Jack Nicklaus design course (Yes, Nicklaus was there), incredible food included, locker, shower and more for about $100 on weekday.

> http://www.pacificgolf.co.jp/ryugasaki/gallery.asp

>

> Click on the gallery and virtual tour.

>

> Where I can get that in the US for about $100?

 

The phrase you're looking for is 'commit seppuku'

 

And to answer your question; nowhere in the USA because its a different culture. Look at how clean Tokyo is vs NYC or LA or Seattle. They are garbage dumps in comparison.

 

And Titleist balls on the range at a public USA course? LOL - they would be buying new balls weekly due to theft, and its happened many times.