For those that think the golf boom is over…

[Ferguson]

Golf in Virginia is pretty healthy.  Our club gained 4% membership YOY.   My friends that play public courses are optimistic and still playing the same number of rounds.  

[jda]

The young golf bros are going to ruin the world.  If you play their celebrations backwards, there are messages from the Devil!  

 

If anybody wants less golfers, feel free to let them know your idea of how golf should be and you probably won't ever see them again.  On second thought, that did not work for Judge Smails.

[Lobby]

I was paired with a curmudgeonly guy a few weekends ago on a muni course on a Saturday 

 

About 4.5 hr pace, so slowish, but not bad. 
 

A twosome drove past us late in the round. We thought they were going home. 
 

Nope

 

They went to the next tee and we’re about to tee of, right in front of us. 
 

My curmudgeon partner was not having it. He gave them a stern talking to, teaching them a little golf etiquette 

 

It was glorious!!

 

They ended up quitting the round. 

 

We need more folks like him to teach etiquette 

[wombat_vortex]

On 11/28/2023 at 9:14 AM, puresurfr said:

Greens fees are through the roof in the Bay Area ( CA ).  I hope the boom slows down a tiny bit, its getting very pricey to play the nicer courses !

 

They for sure are.  The Monterey area has gone way up too.

[wombat_vortex]

I think a big metric would be seeing a used club seller, like Play it Again Sports, having a large amount of inventory would be a big sign of a slow down.  People buy so much on credit cards or buy now pay later.

[jda]

15 minutes ago, wombat_vortex said:

I think a big metric would be seeing a used club seller, like Play it Again Sports, having a large amount of inventory would be a big sign of a slow down.  People buy so much on credit cards or buy now pay later.

 

A better place to do this is on the local marketplaces.  Stores like play it again will just buy enough to keep stock and you will not know who they turn away.  Around me, regular type of Cameron putters are at 5 year lows and the flippers are not making any/much profit on the collectable stuff.  Other used clubs selling for much less than they were.  Do not confuse what people are asking, but rather the stuff that sold - there are still people who think that a used Newport putter is worth $500 and it will never sell.

 

These are the type of leading edge indicators that investors and smart folks are looking for to predict rounds in the future.  Rounds played is a late indicator.  If we had access to new club sales, that could help too - my friend that owned a golf shop sold it so I cannot ask him anymore and I don't think that Titleist, Taylor Made and the like be sharing.  😞

 

Here is an example - brand new Newport for $330 and still not selling.  A few years ago, this would be long got at retail, or a bit more.  Colorado Front range is not small at 5M people.

[mantan]

We have had cold weather since Saturday evening.  We had a one day break today where it got up to 56* before dropping back in the thirties through Sunday. The forecast next week is warmer..but heavy rain early in the week.

 

I tried to sneak to the range at 2:00 today.  Errrbody had the same idea.  I've never seen the parking lot at this large green grass range that full. Every stall was packed with a line waiting for space to empty.

 

I just turned around and left.

 

 

[PARETO]

1 hour ago, mantan said:

We have had cold weather since Saturday evening.  We had a one day break today where it got up to 56* before dropping back in the thirties through Sunday. The forecast next week is warmer..but heavy rain early in the week.

 

I tried to sneak to the range at 2:00 today.  Errrbody had the same idea.  I've never seen the parking lot at this large green grass range that full. Every stall was packed with a line waiting for space to empty.

 

I just turned around and left.

 

 

Pickleball is not pulling their weight on making Pickleball cool on Instagram. Come on Pickleball! Time to work harder to “grow your game” with the bruh IG crowd. They are bound to get bored with golf soon enough. Nows your chance to pounce! Yours truly, we the people who have been playing golf since the 80’s. 

[st1800e]

Strangely, there’s not one person playing golf here these days. 
 

It was -40° a few days ago…. 
 

I’d happily book a week ahead, if that was an option….

[Kansas King]

I think golf is in a good position, but I expect growth of the game to level off, if not decline, in 2024 and 2025. 

 

Private clubs around me are all offering incentives to join again, and they've reintroduced some of the young executive type membership options that went away during the pandemic. It tells me that the private clubs are having an issue with retaining younger members that are more price conscious. However, the Wichita area is not necessarily representative of the whole country. 

 

I think equipment sales growth will stagnate in 2024 and 2025. I may be wrong, but I don't see growth in sales volume with $1400 - $1800 stock iron sets and $600 stock drivers. I'm not saying they won't sell but I don't see the actual number of units sold increasing. I also think the golf equipment segment is pretty crowded right now. All the DTC brands and "golf lifestyle" brands are interesting and I don't see them all surviving. I'm actually surprised that more haven't closed up shop yet. Sadly, I think Snell Golf will be toast if Dean Snell doesn't get their next ball model performing better. 

 

On top of all this the general macro trend is that people are spending less money on recreational activities after hours. Tee sheets have loosened up a little in my area over the last year and I expect that trend to continue but not in a major way.

 

My biggest fear with golf is what happens if there is a significant decline in the sport. Many golf clubs around the country are now privately owned. The companies that own courses are typically large and own several courses. I fear that if there is a big downturn in golf in the future that we're going to lose a lot of courses. I can guarantee that there is a "Plan B" for every privately owned golf course and that plan is probably closing the course and selling it to developers. There is a massive movement in private equity to vacuum up as much prime real estate as possible. Golf was an easy target prior to the pandemic. You also see this type of behavior in Bowling with Bowlero. Not necessarily a bad long-term strategy to make money but I think it could be nasty for the game of golf. 

[mantan]

11 hours ago, Kansas King said:

I think golf is in a good position, but I expect growth of the game to level off, if not decline, in 2024 and 2025. 

 

Private clubs around me are all offering incentives to join again, and they've reintroduced some of the young executive type membership options that went away during the pandemic. It tells me that the private clubs are having an issue with retaining younger members that are more price conscious. However, the Wichita area is not necessarily representative of the whole country. 

 

I think equipment sales growth will stagnate in 2024 and 2025. I may be wrong, but I don't see growth in sales volume with $1400 - $1800 stock iron sets and $600 stock drivers. I'm not saying they won't sell but I don't see the actual number of units sold increasing. I also think the golf equipment segment is pretty crowded right now. All the DTC brands and "golf lifestyle" brands are interesting and I don't see them all surviving. I'm actually surprised that more haven't closed up shop yet. Sadly, I think Snell Golf will be toast if Dean Snell doesn't get their next ball model performing better. 

 

On top of all this the general macro trend is that people are spending less money on recreational activities after hours. Tee sheets have loosened up a little in my area over the last year and I expect that trend to continue but not in a major way.

 

My biggest fear with golf is what happens if there is a significant decline in the sport. Many golf clubs around the country are now privately owned. The companies that own courses are typically large and own several courses. I fear that if there is a big downturn in golf in the future that we're going to lose a lot of courses. I can guarantee that there is a "Plan B" for every privately owned golf course and that plan is probably closing the course and selling it to developers. There is a massive movement in private equity to vacuum up as much prime real estate as possible. Golf was an easy target prior to the pandemic. You also see this type of behavior in Bowling with Bowlero. Not necessarily a bad long-term strategy to make money but I think it could be nasty for the game of golf. 

 

Private equity is a cancer on the middle class lifestyle and American dream.

Edited January 20 by mantan

[TallGuy90]

I am very interested in seeing what DTC brands fail. Sub70 and New Level are the only ones that move the needle for me.I could easily game only Sub70. 

Edited January 23 by TallGuy90

[jholz]

On 1/18/2024 at 9:23 PM, PARETO said:

Pickleball is not pulling their weight on making Pickleball cool on Instagram. Come on Pickleball! Time to work harder to “grow your game” with the bruh IG crowd. They are bound to get bored with golf soon enough. Nows your chance to pounce! Yours truly, we the people who have been playing golf since the 80’s. 

 

Pickleball doesn't have enough equipment or payouts to keep it going in modern American culture.

 

What are you gonna buy in that sport? A new paddle? Some new shoes? How many times can you do that?

 

Plus, the pro Pickleball Tour doesn't seem to be taking off. Not enough money to draw young players. 

 

And, if Pickleball did become a "major sport" - I'd suggest that most of the core participants will migrate to other activities. 

 

Case in point...Flat Track Roller Derby...

[PuffyC]

I imagine a big part of pickleball’s popularity is because it’s pretty darn cheap, something golf very much is not. 
 

But back to the OP, the golf boom definitely seems over in my metroplex of 7+ million. We played one Sunday back before xmas and it was beautiful - high in the upper 60s, sunshine, and very few others on the course. This was a muni but one of the top rated in the state yet we finished in a bit over 3 hours. I remember commenting that I’d never seen the parking lot that empty on a Sunday afternoon.

[pgagreg1]

I was at the PGA show on Wednesday.  The place was packed. It was like 10 years ago.

I think golf will be in a good place for a number of years

[Ferguson]

1 hour ago, pgagreg1 said:

I was at the PGA show on Wednesday.  The place was packed. It was like 10 years ago.

I think golf will be in a good place for a number of years

 

I've heard and seen that before. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TallGuy90]

4 hours ago, pgagreg1 said:

I was at the PGA show on Wednesday.  The place was packed. It was like 10 years ago.

I think golf will be in a good place for a number of years

Filled with Golf content creators

[TallGuy90]

I flip something’s here and there. I could tell Peloton was going to be in trouble when I noticed bikes where just sitting even with price reduction’s. The global scale is almost 1-2 years behind 

[dropkicked]

Last year I saw available times on tee sheets .. haven't seen that since 2019.

I also played with many millennials and genZ.. They absolutely love the game and with most transitioning from pickup leagues (hockey) to Golf. These groups are filling the void left by the boomers who are leaving the game.

 

One important theme I noticed was that none of them actually watch golf, they simply like the challenge of playing the game.

 

Golf courses: They will continue to do well (not peak lockdowns, but well enough)

TV Golf: viewership will continue to decrease. No excitement without a generational talent.

[Soloman1]

My lawn looks great this year; ergo, all lawns look great this year.

 

 

[Hawkeye77]

On 1/18/2024 at 5:08 PM, jda said:

 

 

These are the type of leading edge indicators that investors and smart folks are looking for to predict rounds in the future.  Rounds played is a late indicator.  If we had access to new club sales, that could help too - my friend that owned a golf shop sold it so I cannot ask him anymore and I don't think that Titleist, Taylor Made and the like be sharing.  😞

 

Here is an example - brand new Newport for $330 and still not selling.  A few years ago, this would be long got at retail, or a bit more.  Colorado Front range is not small at 5M people.

 

 

Niche market for Camerons (of which those models are figuratively a dime a dozen the last couple of years) has very little to do with real indicators about the state of the game - for which there are still record numbers being set in relevant categories and other strong market indicators.  Scotty's "market" is not a "leading edge indicator", lol.

[Hawkeye77]

20 hours ago, Soloman1 said:

My lawn looks great this year; ergo, all lawns look great this year.

 

 

As long as people stay off it, mine too!

[PedronNiall]

On 1/23/2024 at 10:43 AM, TallGuy90 said:

I am very interested in seeing what DTC brands fail. Sub70 and New Level are the only ones that move the needle for me.I could easily game only Sub70. 

New Level has pretty much priced itself out of favor here, and that's saying something as they had a strong following. Price is going to be king for DTC, either selling lots of sets at low margin like Takomo or selling far fewer sets at very high margin like some of the Japanese bespoke brands, and I don't think New Level has the panache they need to move into the latter category or to justify their increased pricing after being bought out. I don't think I've seen any NL items in the Latest Purchase thread since their price increase.

 

Looks like Bubba is going to bring marginal relief to course crowding in years to come with the new complex he's partnered on, but I don't think that's going to be much help for most of us. I know things were crazy around here after the recent storms moved out and a little warmth crept back in. Only saving grace was it being wet enough that most courses allowed walking. If there's actual nice golf weather prepare for back-to-back tee times and no walking allowed once again this year.

[Kansas King]

On 1/27/2024 at 9:42 AM, dropkicked said:

Last year I saw available times on tee sheets .. haven't seen that since 2019.

I also played with many millennials and genZ.. They absolutely love the game and with most transitioning from pickup leagues (hockey) to Golf. These groups are filling the void left by the boomers who are leaving the game.

 

One important theme I noticed was that none of them actually watch golf, they simply like the challenge of playing the game.

 

Golf courses: They will continue to do well (not peak lockdowns, but well enough)

TV Golf: viewership will continue to decrease. No excitement without a generational talent.

I'll be curious to see what professional golf viewership does over the next couple years. I know for me I could care less about the PGA Tour, and I will not willingly watch anything on the liv tour. It's a bad product all the way around. Who will regularly watch pro golf when half of the best pros don't even compete with each other except for maybe a couple times a year?

 

What really sucks is that I like watching golf but the magic that the PGA Tour used to have is just gone. I suppose I took for granted that special feeling I used to get watching early season PGA Tour golf before LIV. There was always something special about watching the pros play when there was snow on the ground. It created an excitement that is sadly gone. I still love golf but the enjoyment from that pro golf used to give is now dead.

 

I always thought I would come to terms with the liv tour after a period of time but I haven't. Every time I see it, I despise it even more and I didn't think that was possible. I still think that liv will fail in the long term. Trying to turn golf into a contract-based sport like most other sports just seems completely incompatible with the sport. 

[PedronNiall]

9 hours ago, Kansas King said:

I'll be curious to see what professional golf viewership does over the next couple years. I know for me I could care less about the PGA Tour, and I will not willingly watch anything on the liv tour. It's a bad product all the way around. Who will regularly watch pro golf when half of the best pros don't even compete with each other except for maybe a couple times a year?

 

What really sucks is that I like watching golf but the magic that the PGA Tour used to have is just gone. I suppose I took for granted that special feeling I used to get watching early season PGA Tour golf before LIV. There was always something special about watching the pros play when there was snow on the ground. It created an excitement that is sadly gone. I still love golf but the enjoyment from that pro golf used to give is now dead.

 

I always thought I would come to terms with the liv tour after a period of time but I haven't. Every time I see it, I despise it even more and I didn't think that was possible. I still think that liv will fail in the long term. Trying to turn golf into a contract-based sport like most other sports just seems completely incompatible with the sport. 

This season has had a ridiculously good start on the PGA. Comeback/redemption stories, tight leader boards, first time winners, and the first Am to win a PGA event since Phil in 1991, ushered in by two players on 59 watch in the 3rd round. The LPGA has also had an awesome start, with Lydia Ko returning to form and meltdown to magic from Korda to come back and win in a playoff. The tumult that was 2023 was decidedly ugly and things are still up in the air, but this season has been nothing short of exciting on both of the top US tours.

 

I certainly get people who have been put off by all that happened enough to stop watching. The foolishness in the NFL and F1 over recent years has caused me to drift away from both in spite of how much I used to enjoy them both.