More blatherings from Isaacbm about handicap...

[isaacbm]

Ok, I know every year I get into a big debate about how good the guys on tour actually are. For those of you who are bored with this topic please forgive me.

 

I just wanted to point out a few numbers from q school...

 

The two courses at PGA West are rated 76.1/150 and 75.3/143

 

The guy that finished last in the whole field, Scott Pinckney, had a stroke average of 74.1. That means that his average differential entered in the computer for the week would be +1.5 or so. This is the worst guy in the field for the whole week.

 

The guy that finished first had a stroke average of 67.8. So His average differential would be +7.7

 

I realize these numbers don't equate to handicap ( they would actually have lower handicaps) but I'm just pointing out the averages.

 

How many guys do you know that have a stroke average that is nearly 8 strokes under your course rating?

 

 

Once again, I'm glad I got the Am Status back. Carts and a few beers is where it's at!

 

 

It's cold and snowing in Calgary and I'm bored so please discuss...

[tembolo1284]

How many guys do you know that have a stroke average that is nearly 8 strokes under your course rating?

None! I'm not even that good in the tiger woods game!

So that means theoretically I'd have to improve about 7-10 shots to get 'there'. Lordy!

You were about +6 or so at your best ya?

Ya...I stick to my day job...

[tembolo1284]

Maybe even 12-15 shots for me now that I think about it. I'm sure i'd be much worst at first playing in front of all those people and cameras...

[Mulligan26]

I was talking to my dad about this. I told him that as a 7cap I'd have to knock 10-11 shots off my scoring average to even play mini tours

[isaacbm]

So here's where it all gets a little murky....

If you figure out the guys handicap the old way, meaning not calculating for slope, the best guy for the week would be close to a +11 handicap. I'm basing this on the simply taking his best 50% of his scores and averaging the course differentials. He would have a -12, a -11.5, and a -9 for differentials.

But when you add the slope equation that the USGA started implementing a few years back, his actual handicap would be closer to +9

A lot of guys don't understand that the handicap system only does what it's supposed to for scores over the rating. The math gets a little weird once you get into the +differentials.

In truth, a +6 handicap is closer to 8.5 shots better than a scratch.

[tembolo1284]

hehe...still haven't changed your avatar eh?

[isaacbm]

[quote name='Mulligan26' timestamp='1354799048' post='6026571']
I was talking to my dad about this. I told him that as a 7cap I'd have to knock 10-11 shots off my scoring average to even play mini tours
[/quote]

Well you can play mini tours right now. That's the thing, it's simply organized gambling where they'll except anyones entry because the guys have no problem taking your money.

That's always been part of the thing that adds to the delusion of pro golf. There's no one to tell you that you can't play. Anyone with an entry can throw their hat in the ring. If you had to prove that you could have a stroke average of 72 or lower in tournaments, there would be almost no mini tours in the US. Most of the guys in the field are +2 handicaps or so that average around 74-76 on a 7200 yard golf course. The guys that are barely breaking even are closer to +6.

But again, that's the beauty of the game. It allows everyone to experience the game the way the pros do. Any mid handicap has holed a pitch, or hit a bunker shot to a foot, or 2 putted from 60 feet over a big ridge in a green. We can feel, at least for a moment, that we can be just like the best in the world.

Not a lot of sports allow the average fan to feel that. If I see a guy slam from the foul line, I'm under no delusion that "I can do that too so I should go the training camp." In golf, on the other hand, the lines of how good the guys at the top actually are can be cloudy at times.

[Sean2]

Just goes to show how good these players really are. From my perspective it really is humbling.

[isaacbm]

[quote name='tembolo1284' timestamp='1354827710' post='6028731']
hehe...still haven't changed your avatar eh?
[/quote]

I feel it still fits my personality! LOL!

[MtlJeff]

Somewhere Scott Pinckney is google searching himself and is like "oh cool, they are talking about me on golfwrx....[i]awwww [/i]Isaac why did you have to point out i was last"

To me , what's interesting is we'll point out "and these guys aren't even on tour!". But i kind of feel like the bottom 50 guys or whatever on tour are all basically interchangeable. I read somewhere that John Huh barely qualified (like he kept making it on the number), and he ended up being a favorite for ROY on the pga tour. There's a lot of good players out there. Almost seems unfair because there can be a lot of luck involved given the little amount of spots

[ram01002]

Killer Killer post . . . really great info!

[Dizz]

I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.

[KYMAR]

Man. This is a huge disappointment. When i read the title i thought this was written by someone else ([size=2]thrillhouse[size=4]) and there would be fightin words![/size][/size]
[size=4]Interesting perspective isaac. And don't let anyone give you crap about your avatar. I would have rotated mine long ago had i not had so many wimps ([/size][size=2]thrillhouse[size=4]) complain about it.[/size][/size]

[Obee]

Just re-read your two posts, and you get indexes. I mis-read it the first time. Sorry. :-)

[quote name='isaacbm' timestamp='1354789326' post='6026325']
Ok, I know every year I get into a big debate about how good the guys on tour actually are. For those of you who are bored with this topic please forgive me.

I just wanted to point out a few numbers from q school...

The two courses at PGA West are rated 76.1/150 and 75.3/143

The guy that finished last in the whole field, Scott Pinckney, had a stroke average of 74.1. That means that his average differential entered in the computer for the week would be +1.5 or so. This is the worst guy in the field for the whole week.

The guy that finished first had a stroke average of 67.8. So His average differential would be +7.7

I realize these numbers don't equate to handicap ( they would actually have lower handicaps) but I'm just pointing out the averages.

How many guys do you know that have a stroke average that is nearly 8 strokes under your course rating?


Once again, I'm glad I got the Am Status back. Carts and a few beers is where it's at!


It's cold and snowing in Calgary and I'm bored so please discuss...
[/quote]

Your calculations are wrong, actually. an average score of 67.8 at PGA West from the tips yields an average differential of -6.25266667 and an index of -6.0

Everyone always forgets the slope portion of calculating a differential. The higher the slope, the more it affects your differential when you shoot low.

A 68 shot at PGA West, while seeming like a -8.1 differential (68 MINUS 76.1 EQUALS -8.1) differential, is actually only a -7.6 differential.

The formula is: Gross score MINUS Course rating TIMES 113 DIVIDED BY the slope of the course played (Everyone conveniently leaves out the last two steps and just takes the score and subtracts it from the course rating, but that's no the way indexes are calculated.

So: a 66 at PGA West would look like this:

66 MINUS 76.1 (the course rating of PGA West) EQUALS -10.1 TIMES 113 EQUALS -1,141.3 DIVIDED BY 150 (the slope of PGA West) EQUALS -7.60866667.

So, once again, the differential for shooting a 66 at PGA west is -7.6

Make sense? :-)

And that's obviously just the differential for one round. Your index, as everyone knows, is based upon the best 10 of your last 20 scores and then you multiply that by .96, so if someone shot 20 straight rounds of 66 at PGA West from the tips, then their index would actually be -7.6 (the average of his 10 best scores) x .96, which would equal -7.296, or a handicap index of -7.3.

Based upon my research, most PGA Tour pros have indexes in the range of -5 to -8. But remember, those INDEXES convert to COURSE HANDICAPS of -7 to -10 on tough courses with high slopes.

Confusing, I know, but true.

I've played lots of golf over the years with PGA Tour Pros, Nationwide Tour Pros, and top Mini-Tour pros. The index system works. When I play Tom Pernice, Jr. ($14 million in career earnings on the PGA tour) at my club (Bear Creek Golf Club in Murrieta, CA, where we just had 2nd stage PGA Tour Q-School 7,157 75.7/146), he gives me 2 a side, and we are 3 and 3 in our last three matches. I'm a +1 to +2 right now, and that's a fair bet for us. If we were playing stroke play, I would ask him for 5 strokes instead of 2 and 2 in match play, and at five strokes in stroke play, he would probably have the edge on me, but barely.

If I were playing Ricky Fowler (he's a member at Bear Creek, also), I would ask him for 3 and 2 match play and six strokes if we played stroke play. Ricky shoots between 65 and 70 at Bear Creek pretty much all the time. I shoot betwen 70 and 78 pretty much all the time (unless conditions are really bad or I'm injured, then I can blow up to 80 to 82).

At six strokes, Ricky would probably beat me a bit more than half the time, but I would, absolutely, beat him a fair amount of the time. When I shoot 73, he has to shoot 67 just to tie me. He can certainly do that, but he's also completely capable of shooting 69 or 70 on any given day at Bear Creek if his putts aren't falling or if he has a double on his card.

[Hstead]

I hit balls beside Justin Thomas and Cory Whitsett last week at Alabama. This was after I had a worked with my teacher for about three hours and I thought I was hitting it pretty solid. Well, these two guys have a completely different sound at impact. I was feeling good about hitting my 5 iron at the 200 flag as solid as I could hit it. Then Justin starts ripping 7 irons at the same flag that just about hurt my ears every time he ripped it.

When they left to go play, I laughed and asked their coach why their balls sound different. He just started laughing. Justin can flat out bomb it. My teacher said both of them can fly it 300+ routinely. Justin is not a big guy either but man does he have a great golf swing. He will be out there shortly I am certain.

[MadGolfer76]

[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354837237' post='6029571']
I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.
[/quote]

Get what? That they are really good at playing golf? Doesn't seem so hard JW.

[MtlJeff]

[quote name='MadGolfer76' timestamp='1354838465' post='6029673']
[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354837237' post='6029571']
I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.
[/quote]

Get what? That they are really good at playing golf? Doesn't seem so hard JW.
[/quote]

i think he's referring to those that think they could easily do it if they just dedicated themselves to the game for a year or two. There's been a lot of those threads over the years and one time thrillhouse's head exploded in one of them

[MadGolfer76]

[quote name='MtlJeff' timestamp='1354839753' post='6029735']
[quote name='MadGolfer76' timestamp='1354838465' post='6029673']
[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354837237' post='6029571']
I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.
[/quote]

Get what? That they are really good at playing golf? Doesn't seem so hard JW.
[/quote]

i think he's referring to those that think they could easily do it if they just dedicated themselves to the game for a year or two. There's been a lot of those threads over the years and one time thrillhouse's head exploded in one of them
[/quote]

Nnnn...

[Ezgolfer]

[quote name='Obee' timestamp='1354838136' post='6029645']
Just re-read your two posts, and you get indexes. I mis-read it the first time. Sorry. :-)

[quote name='isaacbm' timestamp='1354789326' post='6026325']
Ok, I know every year I get into a big debate about how good the guys on tour actually are. For those of you who are bored with this topic please forgive me.

I just wanted to point out a few numbers from q school...

The two courses at PGA West are rated 76.1/150 and 75.3/143

The guy that finished last in the whole field, Scott Pinckney, had a stroke average of 74.1. That means that his average differential entered in the computer for the week would be +1.5 or so. This is the worst guy in the field for the whole week.

The guy that finished first had a stroke average of 67.8. So His average differential would be +7.7

I realize these numbers don't equate to handicap ( they would actually have lower handicaps) but I'm just pointing out the averages.

How many guys do you know that have a stroke average that is nearly 8 strokes under your course rating?


Once again, I'm glad I got the Am Status back. Carts and a few beers is where it's at!


It's cold and snowing in Calgary and I'm bored so please discuss...
[/quote]

Your calculations are wrong, actually. an average score of 67.8 at PGA West from the tips yields an average differential of -6.25266667 and an index of -6.0

Everyone always forgets the slope portion of calculating a differential. The higher the slope, the more it affects your differential when you shoot low.

A 68 shot at PGA West, while seeming like a -8.1 differential (68 MINUS 76.1 EQUALS -8.1) differential, is actually only a -7.6 differential.

The formula is: Gross score MINUS Course rating TIMES 113 DIVIDED BY the slope of the course played (Everyone conveniently leaves out the last two steps and just takes the score and subtracts it from the course rating, but that's no the way indexes are calculated.

So: a 66 at PGA West would look like this:

66 MINUS 76.1 (the course rating of PGA West) EQUALS -10.1 TIMES 113 EQUALS -1,141.3 DIVIDED BY 150 (the slope of PGA West) EQUALS -7.60866667.

So, once again, the differential for shooting a 66 at PGA west is -7.6

Make sense? :-)

And that's obviously just the differential for one round. Your index, as everyone knows, is based upon the best 10 of your last 20 scores and then you multiply that by .96, so if someone shot 20 straight rounds of 66 at PGA West from the tips, then their index would actually be -7.6 (the average of his 10 best scores) x .96, which would equal -7.296, or a handicap index of -7.3.

Based upon my research, most PGA Tour pros have indexes in the range of -5 to -8. But remember, those INDEXES convert to COURSE HANDICAPS of -7 to -10 on tough courses with high slopes.

Confusing, I know, but true.

I've played lots of golf over the years with PGA Tour Pros, Nationwide Tour Pros, and top Mini-Tour pros. The index system works. When I play Tom Pernice, Jr. ($14 million in career earnings on the PGA tour) at my club (Bear Creek Golf Club in Murrieta, CA, where we just had 2nd stage PGA Tour Q-School 7,157 75.7/146), he gives me 2 a side, and we are 3 and 3 in our last three matches. I'm a +1 to +2 right now, and that's a fair bet for us. If we were playing stroke play, I would ask him for 5 strokes instead of 2 and 2 in match play, and at five strokes in stroke play, he would probably have the edge on me, but barely.

If I were playing Ricky Fowler (he's a member at Bear Creek, also), I would ask him for 3 and 2 match play and six strokes if we played stroke play. Ricky shoots between 65 and 70 at Bear Creek pretty much all the time. I shoot betwen 70 and 78 pretty much all the time (unless conditions are really bad or I'm injured, then I can blow up to 80 to 82).

At six strokes, Ricky would probably beat me a bit more than half the time, but I would, absolutely, beat him a fair amount of the time. When I shoot 73, he has to shoot 67 just to tie me. He can certainly do that, but he's also completely capable of shooting 69 or 70 on any given day at Bear Creek if his putts aren't falling or if he has a double on his card.
[/quote]

Thanks ,
That is a much more realistic overview ..

[KDMullins]

Not to mention the fact that you're average all of there scores. Now, imagine it was their home course, and you only use the best 10 scores from their last 20 rounds. Crazy good.

[fore_life]

And don't forget that these are rounds that ate loaded with pressure, not just a casual go for broke round

[Obee]

[quote name='fore_life' timestamp='1354841245' post='6029837']
And don't forget that these are rounds that ate loaded with pressure, not just a casual go for broke round
[/quote]

This in an interesting one to me. The best pros actually play BETTER when there's pressure, because they are engaged and activated. Most of the rest of us play slightly worse to MUCH worse under pressure. LOL!

[Big Ben]

These guys are freaks! Hard to imagine playing this well and definitely suggests playing at the elite level is rare and still doesn't guarantee you can make a living at it...BB

[HiSpeed48]

Great thread. The math really puts it into perspective.

[Thrillhouse]

[quote name='KYMAR' timestamp='1354837380' post='6029585']
Man. This is a huge disappointment. When i read the title i thought this was written by someone else ([size=2]thrillhouse[size=4]) and there would be fightin words![/size][/size]
[size=4]Interesting perspective isaac. And don't let anyone give you crap about your avatar. I would have rotated mine long ago had i not had so many wimps ([/size][size=2]thrillhouse[size=4]) complain about it.[/size][/size]
[/quote]

I'm still involved! This post arose from a conversation me and isaac had.

Now change your friggin avatar aaieedy! I highly recommend using vindogs old JLH avatar.

[MtlJeff]

what are the odds this thread ends with Thrillhouse getting banned? 1-1? 2-1 or 3-1?

I think 3-1 sounds about right. Anything higher i'd be all over that. Anything lower i'd probably not bet

[Dizz]

[quote name='MadGolfer76' timestamp='1354838465' post='6029673']
[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354837237' post='6029571']
I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.
[/quote]

Get what? That they are really good at playing golf? Doesn't seem so hard JW.
[/quote]

Don't know if you're being serious or not. I was just referring to the HUGE difference between being a +1 and having a bad week and being a +1 trying to get your tour card in LAST place. Trying to get your tour card and the how close am I? posts that are always a good read. I envy anyone with the game and financial backing to be able to give it a run but if you gotta ask what it takes then 99.9999999999% of the time you don't have it. I don't know isaacbm in real life but I think he knows what it takes... I also know several guys out on the mini tours who were ALL D1 All Americans that are just trying to get paid and all of them could shoot 65 on any given day.

[Mulligan26]

This thread should be required reading for all of the 2 hdcp 16 year old's that post threads about wanting to play pro golf. This is REAL empirical evidence that this game is the hardest sport on earth and that it takes unbelievable ability to make a living playing it. Golf is a game that not only takes immense physical ability but immense mental ability as well. The men (and women) that we watch on TV are amazing human beings. It really makes me feel small when the game is put into this perspective, a guy who can beat almost everyone he plays with at his local course. That same guy would get his a** handed to him in the smallest mini tour event. I'm glad that my goal is to be a golf teacher and not a professional golfer.

[RRFireblade]

I don't know how this makes me feel now.

[MadGolfer76]

[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354849269' post='6030491']
[quote name='MadGolfer76' timestamp='1354838465' post='6029673']
[quote name='J.W.' timestamp='1354837237' post='6029571']
I really enjoy these threads personally because unless you've been around those types of players you just don't get it.
[/quote]

Get what? That they are really good at playing golf? Doesn't seem so hard JW.
[/quote]

Don't know if you're being serious or not. I was just referring to the HUGE difference between being a +1 and having a bad week and being a +1 trying to get your tour card in LAST place. Trying to get your tour card and the how close am I? posts that are always a good read. I envy anyone with the game and financial backing to be able to give it a run but if you gotta ask what it takes then 99.9999999999% of the time you don't have it. I don't know isaacbm in real life but I think he knows what it takes... I also know several guys out on the mini tours who were ALL D1 All Americans that are just trying to get paid and all of them could shoot 65 on any given day.
[/quote]

I didn't mean anything in a bad way, I just didn't understand how that idea becomes some kind of insider-type knowledge?