Could a single digit handicapper break 100 at Shinnecock?

[joeplus2]

scratch here.....doubt it

[gazav]

Spoke to a couple of buddies (all of us mid-low single digit hdcps) about this and we figured it would take the 4 of us playing best ball to sniff breaking 100.

 

Oh yeah, that's with a couple of practice rounds under our belt, perfect conditions and the greens set up like Sunday.

 

And even then I highly doubt we could do it but it would be fun as hell to try.

[NoFancyUsername.]

On Saturday difficulty from pro pins I question if I could break 100 and I'm a 1.5 right now LoL

 

Yeah, I'm a 1.4 right now and I'm also questioning if I could break 100 in the Saturday afternoon conditions.

 

You would break 100 easily. The course will never be set-up like the USGA wanted it. Those pin positions have never been seen by members, and the rough would not be as you saw it on tv. I played it in the 90's a few times, you'd have no problems.

 

Yes, but the question that was asked was if a single digit cap could break 100 on the course that was played on Saturday. My answer to that was, and still is, no.

 

If the course was set up by somebody that actually knows what they are doing, see anybody but the USGA, I would agree with what you said.

 

Absolutely. The winner was at +1...there lies the answer to the OP. There would be no chance that the average scratch golfer would get within 30 shots of the pro on that course the way it was set-up.

[JBake]

Tony Romo, Matt Lauer and Justin Timberlake all broke 100 at Torrey Pines with the same setup. Romo was a 2.2 and shot 84. You guys are overestimating how hard it is.

[JBake]

A bunch of celebs all broke 100 at Bethpage black for the US Open challenge as well. Roethlisberger shot 84 as a 3 handicap. Michael Jordan 86 Timberlake 88 as a 6.

[Shilgy]

Neither of those two were set up this baked out and tricked up. they were just normal but very hard courses.

[PapaJohick]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

Not even trying to be mean but if he’s a legit 18, he can’t break 90 on most courses except for the rarest of occasions.

[Shilgy]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

Not even trying to be mean but if he's a legit 18, he can't break 90 on most courses except for the rarest of occasions.

Depends on what he calls "appropriate" tees. Set is up as a par three and he may perhaps kinda sorta have a chance.

[Outlier]

I always laugh at people, especially mid-handicappers, who think they're just a couple of strokes a side away from being good enough to play a tour setup and not embarrass yourself.

 

Ive played a course twice that was prepped for a Tour event - one PGA Tour, one Champions Tour. People who have never played a course that is prepped for a tour event dont know just how fast they set the greens up. Lightning quick.

 

Im willing to say right now that unless I would happen to stick some iron shots to kick-in range, I'd probably three putt and four putt the majority of the greens at Shinnecock, or most other courses set up for a PGA Tour event. As would most mid-cappers.

us open is not PGA "tour" greens.

[TheCityGame]

On Saturday difficulty from pro pins I question if I could break 100 and I'm a 1.5 right now LoL

 

Yeah, I'm a 1.4 right now and I'm also questioning if I could break 100 in the Saturday afternoon conditions.

 

You would break 100 easily. The course will never be set-up like the USGA wanted it. Those pin positions have never been seen by members, and the rough would not be as you saw it on tv. I played it in the 90's a few times, you'd have no problems.

 

Yes, but the question that was asked was if a single digit cap could break 100 on the course that was played on Saturday. My answer to that was, and still is, no.

 

If the course was set up by somebody that actually knows what they are doing, see anybody but the USGA, I would agree with what you said.

 

Absolutely. The winner was at +1...there lies the answer to the OP. There would be no chance that the average scratch golfer would get within 30 shots of the pro on that course the way it was set-up.

we're up to 30.

 

Scratch golfer doesn't get within 30 shots of a pro.

 

Do I hear 35? 35 strokes? Going once... Going twice...

[Outlier]

A bunch of celebs all broke 100 at Bethpage black for the US Open challenge as well. Roethlisberger shot 84 as a 3 handicap. Michael Jordan 86 Timberlake 88 as a 6.

 

YUP....the mystic that a good golfer "couldn't break 100" is crap in my book. What i think is they have NO SHOT at say sub 77.....either you give the handicap concept some credence or you don't. The whole point of saying someone is "X" handicap theoretically accurately defines how well they play the game. Now either you accept this or you don't ( i don't really care). What is perturbing to me is saying "a 3 handicap couldn't break 100....". Well dear lord, a 3 should (and I believe statistically would) shoot a score proportional to the accurate slope rating of the track and relative to what the tour player's shoot.

 

Basically - the average week on tour the average score may be 71.8. US Open average score maybe 74.1. So Roethlisberger shot exactly what I would expect as did MJ and JT.....

 

PS ( I completely and arbitrarily made up the avg. scores for illustrative purposes).

[Pleasedwith3putts]

Man I wonder how some guys in this thread get their handicap....

[Superbrit]

Tony Romo, Matt Lauer and Justin Timberlake all broke 100 at Torrey Pines with the same setup. Romo was a 2.2 and shot 84. You guys are overestimating how hard it is.

 

Was it blowing 20 - 30 mph?

 

Were they really playing from the tournament Tee's as well? didnt think they did that in the Pro-Am before a tournament?

[Outlier]

Tony Romo, Matt Lauer and Justin Timberlake all broke 100 at Torrey Pines with the same setup. Romo was a 2.2 and shot 84. You guys are overestimating how hard it is.

 

 

OR have no clue what a handicap index represents. If somebody's index is a 2.2, that in theory is statistically predictive of a range and probability of how well they should play (relative to slope rating). If tour guys with an index of +4 are shooting 74 Romo's 84 is exactly what the GHIN said he would shoot....( rough numbers for illustration only).

[Outlier]

Tony Romo, Matt Lauer and Justin Timberlake all broke 100 at Torrey Pines with the same setup. Romo was a 2.2 and shot 84. You guys are overestimating how hard it is.

 

Was it blowing 20 - 30 mph?

 

Were they really playing from the tournament Tee's as well? didnt think they did that in the Pro-Am before a tournament?

 

was not a Pro-Am.....was a test to show the remarkable and inaccurate mythology of the "A 2.2 handicap couldn't break 100 on this Open couse....."

[Outlier]

On Saturday difficulty from pro pins I question if I could break 100 and I'm a 1.5 right now LoL

 

Yeah, I'm a 1.4 right now and I'm also questioning if I could break 100 in the Saturday afternoon conditions.

 

You would break 100 easily. The course will never be set-up like the USGA wanted it. Those pin positions have never been seen by members, and the rough would not be as you saw it on tv. I played it in the 90's a few times, you'd have no problems.

 

Yes, but the question that was asked was if a single digit cap could break 100 on the course that was played on Saturday. My answer to that was, and still is, no.

 

If the course was set up by somebody that actually knows what they are doing, see anybody but the USGA, I would agree with what you said.

 

Absolutely. The winner was at +1...there lies the answer to the OP. There would be no chance that the average scratch golfer would get within 30 shots of the pro on that course the way it was set-up.

 

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

[Superbrit]

Tony Romo, Matt Lauer and Justin Timberlake all broke 100 at Torrey Pines with the same setup. Romo was a 2.2 and shot 84. You guys are overestimating how hard it is.

 

 

OR have no clue what a handicap index represents. If somebody's index is a 2.2, that in theory is statistically predictive of a range and probability of how well they should play (relative to slope rating). If tour guys with an index of +4 are shooting 74 Romo's 84 is exactly what the GHIN said he would shoot....( rough numbers for illustration only).

 

Tour Pro's are not +4's though, probably closer to +6 to +8, the best player in the world probably gets to +9 when hes hot

 

There was an article about Tiger in his heyday having a +13, at his very best over a certain stretch of tournaments

 

+4 wouldn't normally make it to Monday qualifying on a normal tour event

[nsxguy]

I always laugh at people, especially mid-handicappers, who think they're just a couple of strokes a side away from being good enough to play a tour setup and not embarrass yourself.

 

Ive played a course twice that was prepped for a Tour event - one PGA Tour, one Champions Tour. People who have never played a course that is prepped for a tour event dont know just how fast they set the greens up. Lightning quick.

 

Im willing to say right now that unless I would happen to stick some iron shots to kick-in range, I'd probably three putt and four putt the majority of the greens at Shinnecock, or most other courses set up for a PGA Tour event. As would most mid-cappers.

 

Define "mid-capper".

 

Average 'cap is around what, 14 ?

 

Or do you mean "mid-single digit" as the OP states ?

[nsxguy]

If the handicap system is to be believed . The if Pros are +8 ish a 5 handicapper should roughly hit 13 shorts worse on average?

 

That is not how the Handicap system works, thats like saying a -5 cap on Sunday, if he had a really good round, would have shot 76 because Fleetwood shot 63 (or you could be being sarcastic? i cant tell)

 

I'm saying averaged over lots of rounds a 10 handicapper should shoot 5 worse than a five. That's the maths behind the system.

 

Not sure where you get that but over your last 20 (here in the States), the average of MY last 20 differentials, for example, is 2.8 over my index. That may or may not be typical of a 4.7. I don't know.

 

That number, "average", could vary wildly though. While an improbable scenario, here you could have 2 3 'capers, one whose average round is (differential) 3, and the other whose average differential is 8 (or even more). As I said, not likely but possible. :dntknw:

[challengers]

Of course a single handicapper can break 100 at SC. Don’t tell me that a solid 3 handicapper for example cannot go around SC in less than 30 over par. It might not happen all the time but a really good single figure handicapper should be able to break 95 there.

[Shilgy]

 

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

[Man_O_War]

Augusta ...yes. Shinny on Thurs, Fri, sat? hell no... on Sunday? maybe

[cdnglf]

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

 

The gap slowly gets bigger as slope increases, but if I recall the scoring average on Saturday was ~75, so we're talking 24 strokes apart to break 100.

Wouldn't that require a slope of ~400? (I didn't check the math so its probably wrong, but you get the idea)

[Shilgy]

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

 

The gap slowly gets bigger as slope increases, but if I recall the scoring average on Saturday was ~75, so we're talking 24 strokes apart to break 100.

Wouldn't that require a slope of ~400? (I didn't check the math so its probably wrong, but you get the idea)

I guess I will give it the traditional "depends on the (insert cap) type of player. :) I have a strong iron game and short game. Off the tee I can struggle. So give me a few 250 forced carries and foot tall fescue?? There would be a lot of provisionals hit. Note I am talking from the tournament tees. Not the op's "appropriate" tees.

[widow-maker]

Man I wonder how some guys in this thread get their handicap....

Agreed. I don't see how a legit scratch can come into this thread and say they don't think they can break 100. I mean, that's 30 over par. THIRTY.

[Guia]

I changed my mind, I do think a 1HC could break 100 under Open conditions. If he/she is playing from the tips and drives it in the fairway I would say a good day would be 85 to 90. They would have to keep their cool and not panic and play conservative. Not all scratch or 1 HC players are the same. Would also depend on their past experience, college golf previous top level tournaments played.

[cdnglf]

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

 

The gap slowly gets bigger as slope increases, but if I recall the scoring average on Saturday was ~75, so we're talking 24 strokes apart to break 100.

Wouldn't that require a slope of ~400? (I didn't check the math so its probably wrong, but you get the idea)

I guess I will give it the traditional "depends on the (insert cap) type of player. :) I have a strong iron game and short game. Off the tee I can struggle. So give me a few 250 forced carries and foot tall fescue?? There would be a lot of provisionals hit. Note I am talking from the tournament tees. Not the op's "appropriate" tees.

 

I can easily see a particular individual having a bad day off the tee and shooting a million. I'm not a very accurate driver, so I've lived that on courses a lot easier than Shinnecock.

But on average... the numbers don't add up.

 

Fundamentally, the question is: does the handicap system completely break down under extreme conditions?

 

Saturday Shinnecock would have to have a rating in at least the low-90s to make the "5 cap can't break 100" scenario plausible. But if its rating was in the low-90s, how could the average score of players in the +5 to +8 range be in the mid-70s?

[Shilgy]

I am curious as to your thought process? So a tour guys index says he's 8 shots better than me, are you saying that as slope rating increases (course gets more difficult) my index gets higher but the tour guy's doesn't? Wouldn't we both shoot higher on harder courses? Isn't that the whole point of the handicap system?

Your index does not change but your course handicap would go up more than the pros on a difficult track(high slope).

 

For example

If you have a 5.74 index and the pro is +5.74

on a 118 slope course your course handicap is 6 and the pro's is +6. you get 12 strokes in the match

on a 145 slope you get a 7 course handicap and the pro is +7. 14 strokes apart

 

The gap slowly gets bigger as slope increases, but if I recall the scoring average on Saturday was ~75, so we're talking 24 strokes apart to break 100.

Wouldn't that require a slope of ~400? (I didn't check the math so its probably wrong, but you get the idea)

I guess I will give it the traditional "depends on the (insert cap) type of player. :) I have a strong iron game and short game. Off the tee I can struggle. So give me a few 250 forced carries and foot tall fescue?? There would be a lot of provisionals hit. Note I am talking from the tournament tees. Not the op's "appropriate" tees.

 

I can easily see a particular individual having a bad day off the tee and shooting a million. I'm not a very accurate driver, so I've lived that on courses a lot easier than Shinnecock.

But on average... the numbers don't add up.

 

Fundamentally, the question is: does the handicap system completely break down under extreme conditions?

 

Saturday Shinnecock would have to have a rating in at least the low-90s to make the "5 cap can't break 100" scenario plausible. But if its rating was in the low-90s, how could the average score of players in the +5 to +8 range be in the mid-70s?

This is like every other thread with a "could a ? shot" or "could a 4 beat a LPGA..." .I might break 100 Saturday at the US Open but watching the telecast I doubt it. Windy, foot tall fescue, a few long carries off the tee, approach shots to essentially I-95 firm greens and short game to the same, extremely fast putts bumping and airborne as much as rolling...

 

I could turn this over and say if Martin Kaymer shot 83 on Thursday and Patrick Rodgers 83 Saturday( not even mentioning the 92!) do I think that under those extreme conditions would I play Kaymer getting a shot a hole? I would not bet much-that's for damn sure!

[earleyrc]

Four singles from my league (3 of us high and one low single) debated on what we would shoot in a scramble with Saturday's setup. It wouldn't shock me if we shot 100 as a group lol, but it would be fun to try!

 

No chance any of us individually would break 100.

[gretch]

Play it as a par 88, laying up to full L wedge range(or whatever YOUR most confident approach is, that's mine) on every single hole possible. Bound to get it close enough on a handful of holes for a few one putts to cancel out the inevitable 3's. 90 or so sounds pretty dang doable sitting here in this chair. Would be a fun test. Then go out the next day and try to play the normal game. Be real interesting to see how differently one might score. I bet most low cap ams will score better playing the former method, than trying to take that Saturday set up head-on.