Could a single digit handicapper break 100 at Shinnecock?

[larssonlegend]

If the handicap system is to be believed . The if Pros are +8 ish a 5 handicapper should roughly hit 13 shorts worse on average?

[Superbrit]

If the handicap system is to be believed . The if Pros are +8 ish a 5 handicapper should roughly hit 13 shorts worse on average?

 

That is not how the Handicap system works, thats like saying a -5 cap on Sunday, if he had a really good round, would have shot 76 because Fleetwood shot 63 (or you could be being sarcastic? i cant tell)

[wmblake2000]

. But if you are an 8 handicap at your home course which plays 6500 yards; while you are better than average, try playing your usual game and you would not be breaking 100 in Saturday's conditions, maybe not even on the easier Sunday conditions.

 

This is me. While watching even Sunday I thought this course would kick my butt and kick it hard.

[wmblake2000]

Nope, but I would sure like to try...

 

I was wondering... would I rather play Augusta or Shinnecock?

[TheGulag]

I was wondering... would I rather play Augusta or Shinnecock?

 

Yes

[larssonlegend]

If the handicap system is to be believed . The if Pros are +8 ish a 5 handicapper should roughly hit 13 shorts worse on average?

 

That is not how the Handicap system works, thats like saying a -5 cap on Sunday, if he had a really good round, would have shot 76 because Fleetwood shot 63 (or you could be being sarcastic? i cant tell)

 

I'm saying averaged over lots of rounds a 10 handicapper should shoot 5 worse than a five. That's the maths behind the system.

[nsxguy]

Nope, no way. Even on the best of the days (Thurs and Sun) the best scores (other than say outliers like Fleetwood) were still low 70's, and these are guys +6 or better. Even from the regular tips, I don't think a single, even a solid 1 or 2 is breaking 90 in those conditions. They'd barely sniff 100 from the tourney tees.

 

If you put a 9 out there on Sat from the tourney tees, I'm not sure he even breaks 120. A 260 yard par 3, bunkers all around the front, with a green like glass?? Wind in your face, gusting up to 20mph? Lucky if they make a 5. Watching these guys look like amateurs putting out there gives you a sense of how fast and ridiculous it was on Sat.

 

My dad has some confidence in his game for being a 18 handicap and 67 years old. Gotta love him. Lets says a 5-9 handicap could they do it, if they played smart. Like Santiago Golf said you cant go out looking to make pars on every hole.

 

He'd shoot 120 - if you've never been on the property you can't fathom how hilly or windy it is

Not to mention some of the elevation changes, and how on certain holes there is no room for error. On 14 from the tourney tees you've got to carry about 240 yards of fescue and junk. Even from the tips it's still probably about 190. Fescue right off the fairway, too... not cut of rough. Fescue that's DEEEEEP too... like hack your way out and hope it just goes back in the fairway deep.

 

I can't imagine having to play a 7400 yard course in the wind, into greens like ice where unless you get super fortunate, missing the fairway means at best a bogey.

 

I realize you like to rant away sometimes (then again, who doesn't ?) but the least you could do is stick to the script.

 

The OP DID say "appropriate tees" and you're ranting away about 7400 yards. So "could" ? OF COURSE. And if the title said "Would", the obvious answer is "It depends".

 

And while I really HATE these hypothetical threads (scratch 85 @ Augusta & a 4 beating a lady pro, etc.) they are a bit of fun to "fantasize" about - it exercises our minds,,,,,,,, if nothing else. LOL.

 

20 years ago I played Shinnecock as "about" a 10. Fortunately with a caddie. These guys watch your drive into the waist high fescue and walk you right to it. Quite amazing actually. So they probably saved me about 6 shots for a lost ball that day. Of course all you can do out of that stuff is wedge it back onto the fairway.

 

Now of course the course was not a US Open set up nor were the pins where they were Saturday nor was I trying to break 100 (as the premise of the thread suggests). I believe I shot an 87 or 88 that day.

 

The fairways are quite generous and I am much better today than I was then. If I played as the course was set up on Saturday AND the "bet" was to break 100 I think it's totally possible.

 

If I was trying to make my best score however,,,,,,,, 100 would be more of a question.

[4rightmike]

I think a low single would have a chance of breaking 100, but it would have to be a lights out round

[MountainGoat]

I say no way. The problem wouldn't be the greens, which would be bad enough. The problem would be lost balls in the rough. Just about every time you missed the fairway, you'd be walking back to the tee with a 2-stroke penalty.

[golfer07840]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

 

If he played from the whites, which measures out to only 5,394 yards, that is a rating/slope of 67.1/125. His course handicap would be 20. So 20 + 67 = 87. Add about 3, because that's usually what you shoot, 3 over your course handicap and gets us to 91. Factor in the conditions from Saturday..and maybe if he played lights out, then it's a huge MAYBE.

 

If he felt that 5,394 yards was too short, then the next set of tees is 6,272 yards with a rating/slope of 70.3/129. His course handicap goes up to 21. So do the math, it works out to 94. Then factor in the conditions, and chances are he couldn't do it.

[nsxguy]

There are too many variables, is it one isolated round with no practice rounds. Are the conditions set up as they were on Thursday / Friday or Saturday afternoon? As for appropriate tees, I'd assume any low single digit handicapper would hit from the Championship or next set of tees which means the course would still be very long. The Red tees play only about 60 yards shorter than the 2004 US Open at 6940, so it's not as long as course as some.

 

The problems I see for single digit cappers breaking 100

• Tee shots - the pro's struggled to keep their drives out of the fescue, anyone swinging driver would be at high risk to end up in fescue, shorter clubs off the tee would lengthen the course and result in at best bogey golf
  
• Approach shots - those greens were not very receptive and with the same pin placements the landing spots were greatly minimized
  
• Putting - while some pro's seemed to putt okay, many struggled, these greens combined with the tough pin placements would result in a lot of 3 putts
  

I doubt any single digit capper playing from the red tees only one time would break 100.

 

The OP stated Saturday's conditions. FWIW I assume that means I have a caddie, a TREMENDOUS difference at that course.

 

The OP stated "appropriate tees". Why can't a single digit's appropriate tees be 6300 ? i.e. Blue/green tees at Shinny.

 

Tee shots. Commentators quite often commented on "generous fairways". I played there. I agree.

 

Approach shots. Here I agree with you. Extremely difficult on some greens even trying to play it safe. False front and you've got a 30 yards pitch/chip next. Play long and you're putting downhill; a little too much and you've got that same 30 yard pitch/chip again*.

 

Putting. Again I agree but it also depends on the goal. If the goal IS to break 100 it's an "easier" bet than trying to shoot one's best score.

 

 

* - As I mentioned in a couple of other threads, according to the USGA's own guidelines, a skilled player should be able to stop the ball within 3 feet of the cup from above the hole - there were at least 2 or 3 holes where that was NOT possible.

[gpeterson63]

I was there on Saturday with my dad and had the same conversation. As a 5 handicap, I felt I could break 100 from the US Open tees if I had at least one practice round to know where I was going (some of those tee shots are like WTF) and if I teed off in the morning in one of those first groups. But, not a chance in hell in the afternoon. Based on strokes gained (golfmetrics), I'm a good driver (+2 handicap), hit my irons well (scratch on approach), and am a pretty pedestrian short game player and putter (12 and 9 handicap respectively). I figured if I could get off the tee well enough and get the ball around the green, I could figure out how to get the ball on the green one way or another and then 3 putt. Granted, if I were spraying my tee shots I'd shoot 120 :)

[Dizz]

Bunch of friends in PGA Golf Management were talking about this same subject. What would we shoot we played the US Open from the same tees they play. Most of us play to around +1 to a 5 and we all are pretty much there distance wise. Some people were sure they couldn't break 100-110, but the argument was if you went out trying to make pars, you probably wouldn't break 100, but if you played to plus +29, you could probably easily do it. You are laying up off the tee on every hole, including some of the par 3s.

 

This....

 

Every time there is a tough US Open, this same tired subject comes up.

 

I appreciate the honesty above from obviously good golfers. And the conclusion is obvious. If you are truly a single digit and you want to play smart; i.e. "bogey" is your par, then you have a very good chance of breaking 100. But if you are an 8 handicap at your home course which plays 6500 yards; while you are better than average, try playing your usual game and you would not be breaking 100 in Saturday's conditions, maybe not even on the easier Sunday conditions.

 

...and don't forget their home course is 6500, PAR 72! LOL! Let's not forget Shinnecock is a par 70 course that was set up to 7400 for the US Open. Any mid-capper thinking they can break ONE-TWENTY, let alone 100(!), is just smoking some good $*%#.

 

I don’t think the length is the issue really... I’m sure it matters some but I’m 100% sure that level player is gonna struggle far more around the greens and with the second shots. I mean look at the guy who won on that par 3 on the back he pulled a PW a little left and it catapulted just into the longer stuff, which he couldn’t even keep on the green and chipped that into the bunker... now he got it down in 2 from there but he told Curtis Strange after the round he would have been happy with 5. I mean that’s a pretty small miss by the guy WHO WON THE TOURNAMNET... what do you think would happen when a normal guy actually hits a decent shot (30 feet left from 151) and ends up in absolute jail? I’m positive that on some holes an average golfer could literally be chipping around the greens ALL DAY... not to mention there is almost never an actual tap-in like you get at a normal course. You’re gonna have to bang in a 3-4 footer probably 80% of the time... every when putting from 8-10 feet if you miss it rarely stops within inches to tap-in the putt. These are things you really don’t understand though if you’ve only played golf at your average golf course like most people. When you play tournament golf on tough courses this is the norm.

[sailfishchris]

Absolutely not. No practice -just tee up from say 6500-7000 yards. You'd snap all your clubs in frustration and quit golf LOL!

[ebrasmus21]

Phil, Rahm, Casey, Kaymer, all the wishper rock guys keep handicap. Seems like Phil and Rahm are usually around +6

[CasualLie]

Maybe a better question would be: "Could a guy that usually shot 100 ever finish 18 at Shinnecock?".

Take everything out of his golf bag and throw in 2 dozen more balls....

 

And refill at the turn!

 

 

Is he taking a brand new eraser with him on to the course?

 

On those conditions, I doubt it. If the world number 1 walked off the course shooting 7 over says "I thought I played well" mire mortals have no shot. Yes there could be a lot of bluster and hubris in his interview, wanting to still look confident (which to be fair DJ had every right to do. He shot 7 over and was still tied for the lead).

 

Best point so far...DJ shoots 7 over playing well in his mind, but a 5 index will break 100? Right...

[Z1ggy16]

I realize you like to rant away sometimes (then again, who doesn't ?) but the least you could do is stick to the script.

 

The OP DID say "appropriate tees" and you're ranting away about 7400 yards. So "could" ? OF COURSE. And if the title said "Would", the obvious answer is "It depends".

 

And while I really HATE these hypothetical threads (scratch 85 @ Augusta & a 4 beating a lady pro, etc.) they are a bit of fun to "fantasize" about - it exercises our minds,,,,,,,, if nothing else. LOL.

 

20 years ago I played Shinnecock as "about" a 10. Fortunately with a caddie. These guys watch your drive into the waist high fescue and walk you right to it. Quite amazing actually. So they probably saved me about 6 shots for a lost ball that day. Of course all you can do out of that stuff is wedge it back onto the fairway.

 

Now of course the course was not a US Open set up nor were the pins where they were Saturday nor was I trying to break 100 (as the premise of the thread suggests). I believe I shot an 87 or 88 that day.

 

The fairways are quite generous and I am much better today than I was then. If I played as the course was set up on Saturday AND the "bet" was to break 100 I think it's totally possible.

 

If I was trying to make my best score however,,,,,,,, 100 would be more of a question.

Well anything could happen, now couldn't it. Not sure how my script is changing or whatever, I'm point is, and the one I stick to is I'm pretty certain breaking 100 would be incredibly challenging, if not virtually impossible for your average single digital Am to do in Saturday conditions. That's the key... The Saturday part. On a typical muni your run of the mill 9 index is probably shooting low 80s. I really doubt on a set up that challenging he's only playing it 1 shot worse per hole.

[cardoustie]

I'd also like to add that I think I could do it based on playing multiple tour courses right before and right after PGA events

 

ie Muirfield Village I went around in 79 from the tips with two fatted wedges into ponds. Course rated 77.4 I believe. Should have been 76 or 77 at worst.

 

Lehman shot 67 four times in a row at MV when he won it. Call that 12 or 13 shots better. So I am thinking a bad +6 pro day is 84 at Shinnecock. I think I could muster a 95 or 96, and I'm not drunk

 

I've also shot 81 at TPC Sawgrass, from the tips in 30mph gusts and 55* temps. 81 at Bethpage from the tips as well. And I've broken 80 at a 7800 yard course in NW Florida, when it wasn't playing hard and fast.

 

Former college player FWIW

 

Like all of this threads it depends on the player's strengths and if he can play near his cap that day

[kgeisler13]

I'd also like to add that I think I could do it based on playing multiple tour courses right before and right after PGA events

 

ie Muirfield Village I went around in 79 from the tips with two fatted wedges into ponds. Course rated 77.4 I believe. Should have been 76 or 77 at worst.

 

Lehman shot 67 four times in a row at MV when he won it. Call that 12 or 13 shots better. So I am thinking a bad +6 pro day is 84 at Shinnecock. I think I could muster a 95 or 96, and I'm not drunk

 

I've also shot 81 at TPC Sawgrass, from the tips in 30mph gusts and 55* temps. 81 at Bethpage from the tips as well. And I've broken 80 at a 7800 yard course in NW Florida, when it wasn't playing hard and fast.

 

Former college player FWIW

 

Like all of this threads it depends on the player's strengths and if he can play near his cap that day

 

I'm glad someone thinks like my dad and says they can do it based on there abilities.

[bellview17]

As a traveling 6, no. One or two shots out of the deep stuff, my hands and forearms could not take it.

[cardoustie]

I'd also like to add that I think I could do it based on playing multiple tour courses right before and right after PGA events

 

ie Muirfield Village I went around in 79 from the tips with two fatted wedges into ponds. Course rated 77.4 I believe. Should have been 76 or 77 at worst.

 

Lehman shot 67 four times in a row at MV when he won it. Call that 12 or 13 shots better. So I am thinking a bad +6 pro day is 84 at Shinnecock. I think I could muster a 95 or 96, and I'm not drunk

 

I've also shot 81 at TPC Sawgrass, from the tips in 30mph gusts and 55* temps. 81 at Bethpage from the tips as well. And I've broken 80 at a 7800 yard course in NW Florida, when it wasn't playing hard and fast.

 

Former college player FWIW

 

Like all of this threads it depends on the player's strengths and if he can play near his cap that day

 

I'm glad someone thinks like my dad and says they can do it based on there abilities.

 

My cap is quite a bit lower than your dad's to be fair

[SurfDuffer]

Do you think a single digit handicapper could break 100 at Shinnecock during Saturdays US open conditions playing the appropriate tees?

 

I think they could but it would be very hard. My dad who's a 18 handicap thinks he could break 90 from the appropriate tees in those conditions. I told him he was nuts.

 

There is a huge difference between a 1 handicap and a 9. Quite frankly there is a huge difference between a 5 and a 9. Saturday was just stupid. Same pins with the greens running at a normal speed no problem.

[SilverBullets]

a 9? No

 

a 1? Yes

 

a 5? I think 100 is kind of the target.

[jasonfish11]

I think its safe to say the "worst" of the Pro's would be about a +6 to +8 (a proper tournament H/C, not calculated with some friends)

 

And on Friday and saturday they were shooting in the 80's, did one pro shoot 92?

 

to suggest a handicap golfer between 5 and 10 breaks 100 is insane and to even think this shows how little you know about how courses are set up for tournaments

 

Average score on Saturday was 75.3. 8 players shot 80 or worse.

 

Assuming the +6-+8 handicap for those playing on Saturday is accurate (I'd argue it's probably +5, but lets use your numbers).

 

With that assumption and the scoring average that means the effective course rating for Saturday would be somewhere between 81 and 84. So a scratch golfer playing to his/her handicap under those conditions should shoot mid 80's. Actually it would be less, because I'm taking the average score. If I were doing it right I'd take 96% of the top half of the scores on Saturday plus the +6-+8 handicap. The top half of the field shot an average score of 72.36 and 96% of that is 69.46. So the effective course rating based on that would be in the 76-78 range.

 

COULD a low single digit handicapper break 100? Sure.

 

Would a specific low single handicapper break 100 given 1 opportunity? That is a lot more iffy, but I'd go with yes if they carried an honest 3 handicap from tournament play. I'd also not be surprised if I lost my money on the bet, but I would think it would be a positive value bet in the long run.

[aliikane]

They should just start an amateur tour that has tournaments at the PGA pro venues with similar setups and yardage. Then amateurs can play the ridiculously difficult tracks and subject themselves to the carnage. Then we can validate these debates and these threads turn into, "So, did you break 100 at the Shinnecock amateur tournament".

[jasonfish11]

They should just start an amateur tour that has tournaments at the PGA pro venues with similar setups and yardage. Then amateurs can play the ridiculously difficult tracks and subject themselves to the carnage. Then we can validate these debates and these threads turn into, "So, did you break 100 at the Shinnecock amateur tournament".

 

No then the debate would turn into.

 

"I know they can do it the week after, but under the same pressure, with all of the TV cameras grandstands and viewers...Could a low single digit handicapper break 100 at Shinnecock."

[Pleasedwith3putts]

Depends who the single digit is.

 

If you took a guy who is straight and steady and told him to play to break 100 then I'd give him a fair chance. On a number of holes you would adjust your game to make conservative plays and a local caddie would be worth money as it's all about avoiding the double bogey misses and taking a few pars along the way

 

If he went out there with a target of trying to shoot his handicap then I vote he would NOT break 100.

[gretch]

I think its safe to say the "worst" of the Pro's would be about a +6 to +8 (a proper tournament H/C, not calculated with some friends)

 

And on Friday and saturday they were shooting in the 80's, did one pro shoot 92?

 

to suggest a handicap golfer between 5 and 10 breaks 100 is insane and to even think this shows how little you know about how courses are set up for tournaments

 

This from a guy who can't even spell his username correctly. :cheesy:

 

And some pros were also shooting 66s.

 

I'd say it would be difficult but given a caddy, especially one with local knowledge, to handle where to NOT hit it and read the greens, I'd say a mid-single digit or better could absolutely break 100.

 

Ya know, being a spelling or grammar nazi is usually petty and stupid.

 

Usually.

 

[Sean2]

There is only one way to answer this question: have a single digit play SH. Everything else is speculation, which means all of your opinions are correct. :-)

[tngolf22]

I'm a single digit. Someone please start a "GoFundMe" account and get me on Pebble next year. I'll play the Open tees for the first time, no practice round and let's see if I break 100. :golfer: