How much is Bandon Dunes Worth?

[BG5]

Random question....I know there is not enough money in the world for Mike Keiser to sell Bandon....but lets just say it was for sale today.  Can anyone give a rough estimate what Bandon Dunes is valued at.  They charge $350-$400 a round in peak season....fully packed tee sheet.....What is that place worth????

[vallygolf]

Post Deleted.  I have no clue:)

Edited December 21, 2022 by vallygolf

[monty09]

I bet their is a number he would sell.... always is... but I would not know where to peg BD

[jvincent]

His kids actually own the course based on what is in the latest book so I expect that it will stay in the family for a long time since they are also golf course/resort nuts.

 

If it weren't owned by the Keisers the price tag would have a price in the billions for sure.

[eboettne]

26 minutes ago, jvincent said:

His kids actually own the course based on what is in the latest book so I expect that it will stay in the family for a long time since they are also golf course/resort nuts.

 

If it weren't owned by the Keisers the price tag would have a price in the billions for sure.

 

I'm no golf course valuation expert but billionS seems high.  From what I can gather online gross revenues are in the range of $40-50Million/year.  No idea what margin golf courses operate at but let's say BD is very profitable because of how well it's ran at 40% Net Income(Again I have no idea what industry standards are here.  That gives you a net income of approx $20 Million.  I'm going off the industry that I'm in where multipliers for valuation are usually in the 5-10x range of net income that puts you at $200 million on the high side.  Add in the very valuable assets of the land that's probably worth $250 Million? Again that may be high, but it's up there. So using my gorilla math, I put it at $450MM.   

 

I was able to find an article that said Pebble Beach was bought in 1999 for $820 Million. Adjusted for inflation that equals about $1.4Billion today and I have to imagine that land is quite a bit more valuable than remote Oregon.

 

Disclaimer: Please do not use this calculation in negotiations with the Keisers to purchase Bandon Dunes. 

[mallrat]

My first impression was at least a billion but thinking about it and reading the above, in the millions and way less than I think. I say that because what the property is now is worth something but something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. No one is going to buy it to develop homes or anything like that. 
 

That said, to me, priceless. 

[vallygolf]

2 hours ago, eboettne said:

 

I'm no golf course valuation expert but billionS seems high.  From what I can gather online gross revenues are in the range of $40-50Million/year.  No idea what margin golf courses operate at but let's say BD is very profitable because of how well it's ran at 40% Net Income(Again I have no idea what industry standards are here.  That gives you a net income of approx $20 Million.  I'm going off the industry that I'm in where multipliers for valuation are usually in the 5-10x range of net income that puts you at $200 million on the high side.  Add in the very valuable assets of the land that's probably worth $250 Million? Again that may be high, but it's up there. So using my gorilla math, I put it at $450MM.   

 

I was able to find an article that said Pebble Beach was bought in 1999 for $820 Million. Adjusted for inflation that equals about $1.4Billion today and I have to imagine that land is quite a bit more valuable than remote Oregon.

 

Disclaimer: Please do not use this calculation in negotiations with the Keisers to purchase Bandon Dunes. 

Im glad I read the disclaimer.  In my now deleted post I was making that Pebble comparison.  As far as hotel, food beverage and merch and realestate Pebble is in another stratosphere.  I cant see Bandon getting any more than 2-300million all in.  I think Pebble would be a tough sell at 1.4B

[BG5]

Very interesting...I would value Bandon at over $1 Billion.  I agree that the math says its worth a couple hundred million....but the fact that its probably the best golf resort in the world would prob push it over $1 billion if it went to the open market.

[eboettne]

1 hour ago, mallrat said:

My first impression was at least a billion but thinking about it and reading the above, in the millions and way less than I think. I say that because what the property is now is worth something but something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. No one is going to buy it to develop homes or anything like that. 
 

That said, to me, priceless. 

 Completely agree

 

29 minutes ago, vallygolf said:

Im glad I read the disclaimer.  In my now deleted post I was making that Pebble comparison.  As far as hotel, food beverage and merch and realestate Pebble is in another stratosphere.  I cant see Bandon getting any more than 2-300million all in.  I think Pebble would be a tough sell at 1.4B

I'm glad I included it!

 

9 minutes ago, BG5 said:

Very interesting...I would value Bandon at over $1 Billion.  I agree that the math says its worth a couple hundred million....but the fact that its probably the best golf resort in the world would prob push it over $1 billion if it went to the open market.

 

With the direction the golf market is going, maybe you're right. Perhaps because of the post COVID boom of golf and how booked out they are essentially guaranteeing cash flow it would but the to me there isn't enough revenue to justify it.  The crappy part would be if someone else bought it and decided to test the price elasticity tipping point.  Next thing you know, they demo the 16th green and put a gaudy clubhouse in it's place and green fees are $600.  Long live the Keisers!

Edited December 21, 2022 by eboettne

[jvincent]

16 hours ago, eboettne said:

 

I'm no golf course valuation expert but billionS seems high.  From what I can gather online gross revenues are in the range of $40-50Million/year.  No idea what margin golf courses operate at but let's say BD is very profitable because of how well it's ran at 40% Net Income(Again I have no idea what industry standards are here.  That gives you a net income of approx $20 Million.  I'm going off the industry that I'm in where multipliers for valuation are usually in the 5-10x range of net income that puts you at $200 million on the high side.  Add in the very valuable assets of the land that's probably worth $250 Million? Again that may be high, but it's up there. So using my gorilla math, I put it at $450MM.   

 

I was able to find an article that said Pebble Beach was bought in 1999 for $820 Million. Adjusted for inflation that equals about $1.4Billion today and I have to imagine that land is quite a bit more valuable than remote Oregon.

 

Disclaimer: Please do not use this calculation in negotiations with the Keisers to purchase Bandon Dunes. 

 

Given the valuation for Pebble, I'd stick with my billions assessment.

 

I have no idea what the land value and the cost to build the five courses would be in today's dollars but it would be huge. Plus we are simply running out of sites to build courses like Bandon.

[eboettne]

1 hour ago, jvincent said:

 

Given the valuation for Pebble, I'd stick with my billions assessment.

 

I have no idea what the land value and the cost to build the five courses would be in today's dollars but it would be huge. Plus we are simply running out of sites to build courses like Bandon.

 

You think Bandon, Oregon is more valuable land than the Monterey Peninsula?  I probably didn't specify this but the article I read said that the Pebble sale included 3 additional courses which I can only assume means Spyglass, Spanish Bay, and Del Monte. It was a sale of the entire Pebble Beach Resort, not just the single course.  

[me05501]

It would depend on the buyer and what they intended to do with the property. 

 

If the plan is to continue to operate the same way, probably $350-400MM. If the plan is to sell home sites, add an airstrip, etc. then a much higher valuation might be justified. 

[tw422]

ok, I'll bite.....it's worth whatever someone will pay for it.  😐

[monty09]

18 hours ago, vallygolf said:

Im glad I read the disclaimer.  In my now deleted post I was making that Pebble comparison.  As far as hotel, food beverage and merch and realestate Pebble is in another stratosphere.  I cant see Bandon getting any more than 2-300million all in.  I think Pebble would be a tough sell at 1.4B

 

 

I disagree...... so many pools of money globally that someone would take a flyer on this

[monty09]

4 hours ago, jvincent said:

 

Given the valuation for Pebble, I'd stick with my billions assessment.

 

I have no idea what the land value and the cost to build the five courses would be in today's dollars but it would be huge. Plus we are simply running out of sites to build courses like Bandon.

 

 

disagree... Neb has room for as many courses as you want... Wisconsin, south Carolina.. heck Florida has a ton of courses being built 

[Avidswampthing66]

I would have to guess at the least in the lower billions.   I don't know a single person that's come away from Bandon with a negative experience.  That matters when you are dealing with that many guests yearly.   Now, 20-30 years from now could be an entirely different situation.  Bandon is a family business, and I don't see it selling for a few generations.

[Avidswampthing66]

 That's just my opinion and i could be very wrong.

[eboettne]

6 hours ago, me05501 said:

It would depend on the buyer and what they intended to do with the property. 

 

If the plan is to continue to operate the same way, probably $350-400MM. If the plan is to sell home sites, add an airstrip, etc. then a much higher valuation might be justified. 

<shudders>

[2bGood]

6 hours ago, monty09 said:

 

 

disagree... Neb has room for as many courses as you want... Wisconsin, south Carolina.. heck Florida has a ton of courses being built 

If someone is selling ocean front property in Nebraska and Wisconsin, you should jump on that right away as I hear it is pretty rare.

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by 2bGood

[monty09]

14 hours ago, 2bGood said:

If someone is selling ocean front property in Nebraska and Wisconsin, you should jump on that right away as I hear it is pretty rare.

 

 

 

point is there is still plenty of money floating into golf courses or buying golf courses... never say never 

[eboettne]

Another data point for this discussion, Streamsong just sold for $160 million

[snakano]

IMO Bandon's sale alone would blow the Streamsong sale out of the water.

 

BUT. I would think one could not buy Bandon without buying Dream Golf itself.

 

Under that line of thinking the the math is Bandon Dunes, Sand Valley, Cabot, the proposed Colorado build, and who knows what else is cooking that hasn't been made public.

 

Outrageous money if all that's included, if ya ask me.

Edited January 13, 2023 by snakano

[StudentGolfer4]

I agree, Bandon is worth way more than Streamsong, but I don’t see it 6+ times more. 
 

I read the article but don’t recall the details. The Streamsong deal included a pretty large amount of land as well. I have to think the idea of expanding and lodging drive up the price. Does bandon have more land? I know they’re doing another par 3 course, right?

[snakano]

15 minutes ago, StudentGolfer4 said:

I agree, Bandon is worth way more than Streamsong, but I don’t see it 6+ times more. 
 

I read the article but don’t recall the details. The Streamsong deal included a pretty large amount of land as well. I have to think the idea of expanding and lodging drive up the price. Does bandon have more land? I know they’re doing another par 3 course, right?

 

There are plans of an additional par 3, no longer the planned Doak design. As well as a DMK designed full 6th course off site, River Dunes.

Edited January 13, 2023 by snakano

[puttnforthe8]

1 hour ago, eboettne said:

Another data point for this discussion, Streamsong just sold for $160 million

 

Streamsong sells for $160 million
A group of investors affiliated with Kemper Sports is purchasing the Florida resort with an eye on expansion

By Matt Ginella
January 12, 2023

As top-tier golf resorts in America continue to expand their portfolio of courses—Pinehurst, Bandon Dunes, Sand Valley, the Cabots, and more—Streamsong in Florida has just been sold.

[ND2005]

10 hours ago, snakano said:

BUT. I would think one could not buy Bandon without buying Dream Golf itself.

 

Under that line of thinking the the math is Bandon Dunes, Sand Valley, Cabot, the proposed Colorado build, and who knows what else is cooking that hasn't been made public.

 

I don’t think buying “Dream Golf” is possible as the ownership of each project is different. Keiser owns Bandon outright, Ben Cowan Dewer has nothing to do with that one. 
 

They co-own Cabot Cape Breton.
 

Sand Valley is owned by Keisers’ sons.

 

Keiser is a minority investor in the new course in St Lucia, Cowan-Dewer the owner.

 

Keiser not a part of the deal for buying World Woods as far as I know.

 

Don’t know details on the Castle Stuart acquisition.

 

The Colorado project is all Keiser, haven’t heard anything about Cowan-Dewer being involved. 

[graveydellic]

Bandon's revenues are right around $65M and they make a healthy profit.  It's lodging/food/bev that drive much of the operation.  

 

I doubt they'll sell in our lifetime.  They are building an empire with Bandon as the base.  That said, all it takes is one generation that doesn't want to deal with the business and wants to cash out.  Over a long enough time, it happens with most family businesses.  

[jvincent]

I think I replied earlier in this thread, but Mike Keiser actually sold Bandon to his kids according to what was written in his book. I assume that this was an estate planning deal.

 

From everything they have said, the kids look to be all in on the business and if I were in their shoes I'd do the same. I'm sure they have plenty of people to deal with the day to day tedium of the business and they get to focus on the fun stuff.

[Chilidog]

No clue. I’ll ask them when we are there in March. 

[BG5]

I am a firm believer that Bandon Dunes would fetch a price north of 1 Billion dollars if it were to go on the market.  There is a huge difference between Streamsong and Bandon Dunes.  Bandon is regarded as the greatest golf resort in the entire world.  Tee times are almost fully booked 2 years out and they are more than fair with their prices.  The could prob charge alot more than they do now.  This thing is a cash cow....its has some of the greatest golf courses on 1 site in the entire world.  Easily worth at least $1 Billion and probably and argument for more.