Can a 4-handicap man beat an LPGA pro?

[jt2gt]

I actually like this thread...its given me good insight into how great the LPGAers really play (and like hearing from folks about actually playing with them). Im not sure why folks are getting so frustrated and hyperbolic about this thread on either side of the discussion. Both sides seem to be overstating it by changing up facts here and there.

[PowderedToastMan]

BPH and DTC,

 

I understand the system and understand the argument. Yes, there's a chance. A small chance, like 5% in a single round with zero pressure.

 

That being said, just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. Can a scratch player beat and LPGA Tour player? Yes. Is it likely? No. If he cut his junk off, became a woman, and tried to make a run at the Tour, he/she wouldn't be successful. Stringing together 4 rounds of golf is hard and something most scratch players can't do.

[bph7]

BPH and DTC,

 

I understand the system and understand the argument. Yes, there's a chance. A small chance, like 5% in a single round with zero pressure.

 

That being said, just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. Can a scratch player beat and LPGA Tour player? Yes. Is it likely? No. If he cut his junk off, became a woman, and tried to make a run at the Tour, he/she wouldn't be successful. Stringing together 4 rounds of golf is hard and something most scratch players can't do.

 

A male scratch golfer wouldn't be good enough (btw I'm not sure where my previous post went). As I said, I think the top 50 or so would play to a plus 2 men's. I've said that repeatedly. I also calculated that a four cap would have a 1-3% chance, even lower than you said. I think a men's plus 2 with some tourney experience could keep their card if they played a full schedule. I've demonstrated why I think that. Where is the scratch golfer even coming into this? I've repeatedly said why I think plus 2 is a better guess. It sounds like we don't even really disagree, and in fact I give a 4 cap a much lower chance than you did. In any event, I remain confident in plus 2 men's being about right for competing/keeping your card. That's a VERY good golfer, it's not meant to put anyone down or anything.

[BrianB]

A male scratch golfer wouldn't be good enough (btw I'm not sure where my previous post went). As I said, I think the top 50 or so would play to a plus 2 men's. I've said that repeatedly. I also calculated that a four cap would have a 1-3% chance, even lower than you said. I think a men's plus 2 with some tourney experience could keep their card if they played a full schedule. I've demonstrated why I think that. Where is the scratch golfer even coming into this?

 

Yes, I think you probably need to equal or beat Course Rating half the time in order to be making cuts in LPGA tournaments with much frequency. A scratch golfer should do it one round in five, which would put him on the fringe, missing the cut in most tournaments. But you only need to be in the top 125 to keep your card. I think a guy who can play to scratch in tournament golf (which is probably not most of those listing scratch handicaps in GHIN) could maybe do it.

 

As for the DRI event that prompted this bump, there were 10 Amateurs there who got in through a qualifier, and 47 celebrities. And of those 57 golfers, only four scored better than the worst of the 31 Pros there, and those four were all known plus handicaps. So that suggests at a minimum that you might need to be at least scratch to be in the discussion.

[dhc1]

BPH and DTC,

 

I understand the system and understand the argument. Yes, there's a chance. A small chance, like 5% in a single round with zero pressure.

 

That being said, just because something is possible doesn't mean it's likely. Can a scratch player beat and LPGA Tour player? Yes. Is it likely? No. If he cut his junk off, became a woman, and tried to make a run at the Tour, he/she wouldn't be successful. Stringing together 4 rounds of golf is hard and something most scratch players can't do.

 

Thanks for the response. I'd like to understand where your opinions and statistics (5% chance) come from.

 

BPH thinks that the top 50 LPGA players are +2. Seems reasonable to me but I posit that the next 100 LPGA players are at least a stroke worse as the ladies tour doesn't have the depth that the men's tour does.

 

What I'd like to see is exactly the actual yardage the LPGA plays from the first two days of a specific tournament and then see what the scores were for the players who didn't make the cut.

 

If it turns out (which may be wrong, I admit) that

 

(A) they play from the senior tees where the rating for men is a couple strokes below par and

 

(B) the cut line for two rounds is well above par,

 

I think a case can be made that a scratch male wouldn't finish DFL and may even make the cut, if they hit a decent couple of days.

 

If anyone can show that the actual tees being played by the ladies are equivalent to a men's rating that is well above par and that the cut line is pretty close to even, then my case for a men's scratch is discredited. That's the simple math that you seem to not want to address directly.

 

PS. BPH, I'd also be grateful to get your color as you think that the 125th ranked female pros is a +2 rather than a +1/scratch. Maybe it's too close to matter but I'd be intererested to hear your [respectful] criticism of the above.

[bph7]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

[dhc1]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

[North Texas]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

 

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

[pinhigh27]

I've done the math ...

 

Using the location of LPGA Volvik Championship Travis Pointe CC in 2017.

 

FACT: average yardage LPGA plays from 6,500 yards

(source LPGA's own website)

 

FACT: +3 was the cut line in 2016

(source LPGA website)

 

FACT: Travis Pointe's WHITE tees are 6,545 yrds. The course rating from the TIPS is 73.8

 

so..... A scratch male golfer could MAYBE stand a chance to make the cut in the LPGA Volvik championship. By doing that he would've beaten a number of LPGA pros at that tournament on his way up the leaderboard

 

I'm highly doubtful that the LPGA plays from 6500 yards actual during their tournament. I think that they set up the course significantly shorter to add some risk/reward short holes. My guess is that they'll play the Volvik from somewhere close to 6200 yards average over the four days. That changes the rating significantly.

 

I do agree that somewhere around scratch to +1 is the comparable for a male. Would love to see a Bobby Riggs/King event with lots of money on the line.....

Why in the world do you think a scratch or +1 is comparable for a male? This logic makes zero sense. What scratch or plus 1 in existence has the ability to go double digits under par in a four round tourney. Better yet, why is a scratch or +1 male equivalent to a +5 or better female? Do you understand how the handicap system works? It's just complete nonsense.

the bottom end lpga pros do not have the ability to go double digit under par in those tournaments. no way.

 

it's a pretty simple math problem. not sure why so many people have such a hard time understand that there is a difference between a mens handicap and a womens handicap.

Do you really think these LPGA'ers are using a women's handicap? How would that make sense when they are essentially playing the tips? Ordinarily, a +4 lady would be a plus +1 or so male, but we are talking about LPGA tour pros.

 

It's not simple math. There's digging and using the right information.

 

essentially playing the tips? how so? no a +4 lady would be like a 2 in mens. man this isnt hard. look at the middle tees of a course. it probably has men and womens ratings listed. the womens is typically about 6 higher.

[BMC]

You guys who think this scenario can be reduced to handicaps and yardages don't play much golf do you?

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely.

 

The handicap male player only counts his best rounds, along with ESC, 96% of score, and probably unknowingly breaks a rule most rounds.

 

The lpga player counts everything. Handicaps are for amateurs. I don't think the 4 has a chance.

 

The lpga player posts actual scores. A 4 handicap shoots an 80 most days.

[pinhigh27]

You guys who think this scenario can be reduced to handicaps and yardages don't play much golf do you?

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely.

 

The handicap male player only counts his best rounds, along with ESC, 96% of score, and probably unknowingly breaks a rule most rounds.

 

The lpga player counts everything. Handicaps are for amateurs. I don't think the 4 has a chance.

 

The lpga player posts actual scores. A 4 handicap shoots an 80 most days.

 

can means is it possible. Can i beat tiger woods? Sure if he plays with left handed clubs, is hung over and his back is bugging him, ya maybe I have a chance.

 

Very few people have said its likely a 4 would beat an lpga player.

 

you guys just can't rationally argue without making false constructs or making it an emotional argument.

 

Can a 4 beat an lpga pro? Yes it's possible. Is it likely? no

 

then the debate shifted to if scratch could beat lpga pro, so I have no idea why you guys keep throwing out the 4 thing. that was settled long ago in the discussion.

[BMC]

You guys who think this scenario can be reduced to handicaps and yardages don't play much golf do you?

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely.

 

The handicap male player only counts his best rounds, along with ESC, 96% of score, and probably unknowingly breaks a rule most rounds.

 

The lpga player counts everything. Handicaps are for amateurs. I don't think the 4 has a chance.

 

The lpga player posts actual scores. A 4 handicap shoots an 80 most days.

 

can means is it possible. Can i beat tiger woods? Sure if he plays with left handed clubs, is hung over and his back is bugging him, ya maybe I have a chance.

 

Very few people have said its likely a 4 would beat an lpga player.

 

you guys just can't rationally argue without making false constructs or making it an emotional argument.

 

Can a 4 beat an lpga pro? Yes it's possible. Is it likely? no

 

then the debate shifted to if scratch could beat lpga pro, so I have no idea why you guys keep throwing out the 4 thing. that was settled long ago in the discussion.

 

Well change the name of the thread. Didn't know you made an executive decision.

 

There's no argument here. Scratch or 4 ain't gonna beat the pro. A scratch barely ever sniffs par. More likely shoots 75/76 most days.

[BrianB]

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

They don't play the exact listed yardage every day, they sometimes move the tee boxes a bit day to day, just as they change flag positions, just to change things up, and present different challenges. That doesn't mean they are playing substantially less than the announced yardage, overall. They aren't playing the tips, and they aren't playing the senior tees. Typically it's a combination of the Men's back tees and intermediate tees.

 

At Tiburon, I know there was one short par 4 that played at 350 yards the first two days, that they moved the tees up to the front on day three, to have an easily drivable par 4, just for a little excitement.

 

Thing is, Tiburon is the season finale, only the top 65 players get in there, so while I'd guess our hypothetical scratch male can probably keep a tour card, he probably wouldn't make it into that field. The Tips on the Gold Course are listed at 7271 yards (74.9 CR), the back Men's tees at 6598 (71.6 CR), the White tees at 6098 (69.7 CR). Even if they are sometimes playing a little less yardage than they list, I think it's still got to be a CR of around 71.

 

And I think a scratch male must average at least a couple of strokes above the CR. Lets say he averages 73.5 per round. That would have him shooting 294, finishing ahead of four players in that field. But that's just four who happened to have a bad tournament.

 

I'd guess that a true scratch tournament player though might be able to play on that tour, and I'm sure would make some cuts and occasionally finish in the money especially in some events that are a little less packed with talent.

[BrianB]

There's no argument here. Scratch or 4 ain't gonna beat the pro. A scratch barely ever sniffs par. More likely shoots 75/76 most days.

 

On a CR of about 71 though? Pretty much by definition, he should be shooting the CR one round in five. Granted, guys playing these 7000 yard courses with CR of 74-76 don't need to sniff par too often to be scratch.

[TheLarch]

At some point, when someone is finally provoked into saying something that gets them banned from Golfwrx, will this thread then be locked down?

[deadsolid...shank]

Why all the cries to lock it. Some of us enjoy reading discussion.

 

If the entire idea of the thread causes so much consternation, don't open and read it. Problem solved.

[TheLarch]

Thanks for the help.

[deadsolid...shank]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

 

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

 

Ive been curious about the yardages at imes while watching. Several times on par threes for instance, they'll say the yardage is 160. Then they show an overhead view of the teeing area and the tee markers are on a box that the scorecard lists as 130. The numbers are just random for an example.

 

I've seen that several times.

[oikos1]

36 pages in and the most hilarious thing about this thread is that dudes are still debating who has the "on course" game versus an LPGA player...priorities are totally a mess...

[dhc1]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

 

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

 

North Texas,

 

It's really from watching a good amount of LPGA and looking at the tee boxes they play from. I often see that they list a holes distance but it doesn't correlate to the right tee box. It certainly is more opinion that fact and have asked several times on the LPGA tour talk forum if anyone has specific knowledge (i.e., someone who's at the tournament and knows the course).

[dhc1]

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

They don't play the exact listed yardage every day, they sometimes move the tee boxes a bit day to day, just as they change flag positions, just to change things up, and present different challenges. That doesn't mean they are playing substantially less than the announced yardage, overall. They aren't playing the tips, and they aren't playing the senior tees. Typically it's a combination of the Men's back tees and intermediate tees.

 

At Tiburon, I know there was one short par 4 that played at 350 yards the first two days, that they moved the tees up to the front on day three, to have an easily drivable par 4, just for a little excitement.

 

Thing is, Tiburon is the season finale, only the top 65 players get in there, so while I'd guess our hypothetical scratch male can probably keep a tour card, he probably wouldn't make it into that field. The Tips on the Gold Course are listed at 7271 yards (74.9 CR), the back Men's tees at 6598 (71.6 CR), the White tees at 6098 (69.7 CR). Even if they are sometimes playing a little less yardage than they list, I think it's still got to be a CR of around 71.

 

And I think a scratch male must average at least a couple of strokes above the CR. Lets say he averages 73.5 per round. That would have him shooting 294, finishing ahead of four players in that field. But that's just four who happened to have a bad tournament.

 

I'd guess that a true scratch tournament player though might be able to play on that tour, and I'm sure would make some cuts and occasionally finish in the money especially in some events that are a little less packed with talent.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

Couple of questions:

 

1. Any specific info on actual course length the LPGA play? Looks like our bid/ask is a couple hundred yards as you (not unreasonably) think it's fairly close to stated yardage of about 6500 while I think it's under 6200 yards on average.

 

2. Do scratch players only shoot the course rating one out of every seven rounds (which is what higher handicap players are supposed to do)? I think that scratch players are supposed to shoot the course rating about half the time and certainly don't average a couple shots over. Slope is mainly for bogey players and the .96 doesn't impact that much either given the small base.

[bluedot]

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

They don't play the exact listed yardage every day, they sometimes move the tee boxes a bit day to day, just as they change flag positions, just to change things up, and present different challenges. That doesn't mean they are playing substantially less than the announced yardage, overall. They aren't playing the tips, and they aren't playing the senior tees. Typically it's a combination of the Men's back tees and intermediate tees.

 

At Tiburon, I know there was one short par 4 that played at 350 yards the first two days, that they moved the tees up to the front on day three, to have an easily drivable par 4, just for a little excitement.

 

Thing is, Tiburon is the season finale, only the top 65 players get in there, so while I'd guess our hypothetical scratch male can probably keep a tour card, he probably wouldn't make it into that field. The Tips on the Gold Course are listed at 7271 yards (74.9 CR), the back Men's tees at 6598 (71.6 CR), the White tees at 6098 (69.7 CR). Even if they are sometimes playing a little less yardage than they list, I think it's still got to be a CR of around 71.

 

And I think a scratch male must average at least a couple of strokes above the CR. Lets say he averages 73.5 per round. That would have him shooting 294, finishing ahead of four players in that field. But that's just four who happened to have a bad tournament.

 

I'd guess that a true scratch tournament player though might be able to play on that tour, and I'm sure would make some cuts and occasionally finish in the money especially in some events that are a little less packed with talent.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

Couple of questions:

 

1. Any specific info on actual course length the LPGA play? Looks like our bid/ask is a couple hundred yards as you (not unreasonably) think it's fairly close to stated yardage of about 6500 while I think it's under 6200 yards on average.

 

2. Do scratch players only shoot the course rating one out of every seven rounds (which is what higher handicap players are supposed to do)? I think that scratch players are supposed to shoot the course rating about half the time and certainly don't average a couple shots over. Slope is mainly for bogey players and the .96 doesn't impact that much either given the small base.

 

This wasn't addressed to me, but I'll answer anyway.

 

6400 is a number that you could keep in mind as a "typical" LPGA yardage, though obviously there are wide variations.

 

As to what a scratch player averages, the USGA would expect him/her to have an average score somewhat over the course rating during a 20 round period, and to shoot the course rating or below one round out of every 4 or 5; in that regard the scratch player is no different than the rest of us. What IS different is that the range of scores, especially of the ten rounds out of 20 that don't count, tends to tighten as handicaps reduce, and the range of scores that a scratch player shoots will be ON AVERAGE smaller than the range of a 5, whose range will be smaller than a 10, and so on. So when the USGA says that the AVERAGE is two shots OVER the index for ALL golfers, that's going to mean that a 20 index is likely to average more than two shots over his index, while the scratch golfer averages much closer to his index. I may not have done a good job explaining that; hope it helps.

[bluedot]

Just for consideration...

 

I play a fair amount of golf with a woman who has just gotten her LPGA card for the first time; she finished in the top ten at Q school in December after two seasons on the Symetra Tour. Another buddy who is a 6 and is a frequent partner of mine in Carolinas Golf Association super senior four ball events, play our better ball against her. We each give her $20 on the first tee, which she keeps if she beats us, but has to give back if we beat her. On top of that, we play from 6000 yds., while she plays from 6500. We did this all fall and winter as a means of getting her some competition between tournaments.

 

Guess how often she had to give us back our $20...

 

Another quick story: She and I are just off the front of the green on a par 5, but with a back pin on a green that is about 50 yds. deep; our balls are only about 3' apart. We make a closest to the pin bet for the chip, and I hit first and bump a 7 iron to within a couple of feet, about which I feel great. She then jars hers, and I give her even more money, and tell her that's why she's a professional golfer and I watch professional golf in my PJ's on the sofa.

[dhc1]

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

They don't play the exact listed yardage every day, they sometimes move the tee boxes a bit day to day, just as they change flag positions, just to change things up, and present different challenges. That doesn't mean they are playing substantially less than the announced yardage, overall. They aren't playing the tips, and they aren't playing the senior tees. Typically it's a combination of the Men's back tees and intermediate tees.

 

At Tiburon, I know there was one short par 4 that played at 350 yards the first two days, that they moved the tees up to the front on day three, to have an easily drivable par 4, just for a little excitement.

 

Thing is, Tiburon is the season finale, only the top 65 players get in there, so while I'd guess our hypothetical scratch male can probably keep a tour card, he probably wouldn't make it into that field. The Tips on the Gold Course are listed at 7271 yards (74.9 CR), the back Men's tees at 6598 (71.6 CR), the White tees at 6098 (69.7 CR). Even if they are sometimes playing a little less yardage than they list, I think it's still got to be a CR of around 71.

 

And I think a scratch male must average at least a couple of strokes above the CR. Lets say he averages 73.5 per round. That would have him shooting 294, finishing ahead of four players in that field. But that's just four who happened to have a bad tournament.

 

I'd guess that a true scratch tournament player though might be able to play on that tour, and I'm sure would make some cuts and occasionally finish in the money especially in some events that are a little less packed with talent.

 

Thanks for the response.

 

Couple of questions:

 

1. Any specific info on actual course length the LPGA play? Looks like our bid/ask is a couple hundred yards as you (not unreasonably) think it's fairly close to stated yardage of about 6500 while I think it's under 6200 yards on average.

 

2. Do scratch players only shoot the course rating one out of every seven rounds (which is what higher handicap players are supposed to do)? I think that scratch players are supposed to shoot the course rating about half the time and certainly don't average a couple shots over. Slope is mainly for bogey players and the .96 doesn't impact that much either given the small base.

 

This wasn't addressed to me, but I'll answer anyway.

 

6400 is a number that you could keep in mind as a "typical" LPGA yardage, though obviously there are wide variations.

 

As to what a scratch player averages, the USGA would expect him/her to have an average score somewhat over the course rating during a 20 round period, and to shoot the course rating or below one round out of every 4 or 5; in that regard the scratch player is no different than the rest of us. What IS different is that the range of scores, especially of the ten rounds out of 20 that don't count, tends to tighten as handicaps reduce, and the range of scores that a scratch player shoots will be ON AVERAGE smaller than the range of a 5, whose range will be smaller than a 10, and so on. So when the USGA says that the AVERAGE is two shots OVER the index for ALL golfers, that's going to mean that a 20 index is likely to average more than two shots over his index, while the scratch golfer averages much closer to his index. I may not have done a good job explaining that; hope it helps.

 

thanks, Bluedot. It is helpful and makes sense. I was playing around with my handicap spreadsheet though and it seems pretty clear to me that the top 10 of 20 have to average the course rating to get a scratch rating and that the top 10 average can't be over that definitionally (i.e., the 96% multiplier and slope vs. 113 have no impact). Now what their anti-cap is and how that changes their all-20 average is another story for which one's handicap doesn't account. The challenge of getting to scratch is asymptotic, which is why I think it's silly for people to argue that a 4 could reasonably compete with a scratch player (semantics on the definition of "could" aside). IMO, those four strokes are very different from a 4 to an 8.

 

I'd take the under at 6400 yards for a sea-level LPGA tourney but don't think your premise is unreasonable. Let's see if we can get someone to check out the yardages played at an actual tournament! Why guess when it's actually factual data?....

[WidespreadPanic]

There is a big misconception on WRX of what "scratch" actually means.

[PJ72]

Obee, Phil just had hernia surgery. It is completely unfair to pick on the injured.

He's talking past tense here.

[dhc1]

There is a big misconception on WRX of what "scratch" actually means.

 

what do you mean? thanks

[nsxguy]

You guys who think this scenario can be reduced to handicaps and yardages don't play much golf do you?

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely.

 

The handicap male player only counts his best rounds, along with ESC, 96% of score, and probably unknowingly breaks a rule most rounds.

 

The lpga player counts everything. Handicaps are for amateurs. I don't think the 4 has a chance.

 

The lpga player posts actual scores. A 4 handicap shoots an 80 most days.

 

can means is it possible. Can i beat tiger woods? Sure if he plays with left handed clubs, is hung over and his back is bugging him, ya maybe I have a chance.

 

Very few people have said its likely a 4 would beat an lpga player.

 

you guys just can't rationally argue without making false constructs or making it an emotional argument.

 

Can a 4 beat an lpga pro? Yes it's possible. Is it likely? no

 

then the debate shifted to if scratch could beat lpga pro, so I have no idea why you guys keep throwing out the 4 thing. that was settled long ago in the discussion.

You guys who think this scenario can be reduced to handicaps and yardages don't play much golf do you?

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely.

 

The handicap male player only counts his best rounds, along with ESC, 96% of score, and probably unknowingly breaks a rule most rounds.

 

The lpga player counts everything. Handicaps are for amateurs. I don't think the 4 has a chance.

 

The lpga player posts actual scores. A 4 handicap shoots an 80 most days.

 

can means is it possible. Can i beat tiger woods? Sure if he plays with left handed clubs, is hung over and his back is bugging him, ya maybe I have a chance.

 

Very few people have said its likely a 4 would beat an lpga player.

 

you guys just can't rationally argue without making false constructs or making it an emotional argument.

 

Can a 4 beat an lpga pro? Yes it's possible. Is it likely? no - Agreed

 

then the debate shifted to if scratch could beat lpga pro, so I have no idea why you guys keep throwing out the 4 thing. that was settled long ago in the discussion.

 

Well change the name of the thread. Didn't know you made an executive decision.

 

There's no argument here. Scratch or 4 ain't gonna beat the pro. A scratch barely ever sniffs par. More likely shoots 75/76 most days.

 

Topic "can a 4 handicap beat an lpga pro"? Unlikely. Unlikely means possible, yes ?

 

Scratch or 4 ain't gonna beat the pro. You sound very conflicted. Make up my mind, will ya ?!?!?! :cheesy:

[North Texas]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

 

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

 

North Texas,

 

It's really from watching a good amount of LPGA and looking at the tee boxes they play from. I often see that they list a holes distance but it doesn't correlate to the right tee box. It certainly is more opinion that fact and have asked several times on the LPGA tour talk forum if anyone has specific knowledge (i.e., someone who's at the tournament and knows the course).

 

I've only played one course that the LPGA plays and that was Mission Hills CC where they play the Kraft Nabisco/Dinah Shore/ANA or whatever you want to call it. They have white tees at 6315 and blue tees at 6907. In between they have the KNC Tournament tees at 6671. From what I can tell on TV, the ladies pretty much play the KNC tournament tees or slightly up. There may be a hole or two where they make a significant adjustment in a given round but I would be greatly surprised if they ever played it at less than 6500. For sure, I'm going to watch it closer this year.

 

Playing it again 3 weeks from today and I think we're going to play the KNC tournaments tees. The 4 of us all get it there about 240ish with average handicap around 10. Wish us luck. We're going to need it.

[dhc1]

Here's an example: http://www.lpga.com/tournaments/cme-group-tour-championship/results

 

No cut, they played at tiburon gold with a listed yardage of 6540. Looking at the card, the blue men's tees are listed at 6522, so we'll assume that's where they played. Men's rating/slope from there is 71.6/130. Taking the two best rounds of anyone who finished T51, you get 69 69 (Kris Tamulis). Her differentials for those two rounds would be ((69-71.6)*113/130)*.96=-2.1. So a plus 2 in tourney conditions picking the top 2 rounds out of 4. Others who finished T51 would be worse.

 

So for the week, those who finished T51 were plus 2 at best. If you took all four rounds for those at T51, they are basically right at men's scratch.

 

Thanks BPH. IMO, they usually don't play close to the listed yardage in order to incorporate shorter risk/reward holes so perhaps the rating would be even more skewed.

 

Just curious. Is that just your opinion or do you have factual information to support your thought that they don't play close to the the listed yardage or even the senior tees as you suggested in a previous post?

 

North Texas,

 

It's really from watching a good amount of LPGA and looking at the tee boxes they play from. I often see that they list a holes distance but it doesn't correlate to the right tee box. It certainly is more opinion that fact and have asked several times on the LPGA tour talk forum if anyone has specific knowledge (i.e., someone who's at the tournament and knows the course).

 

I've only played one course that the LPGA plays and that was Mission Hills CC where they play the Kraft Nabisco/Dinah Shore/ANA or whatever you want to call it. They have white tees at 6315 and blue tees at 6907. In between they have the KNC Tournament tees at 6671. From what I can tell on TV, the ladies pretty much play the KNC tournament tees or slightly up. There may be a hole or two where they make a significant adjustment in a given round but I would be greatly surprised if they ever played it at less than 6500. For sure, I'm going to watch it closer this year.

 

Playing it again 3 weeks from today and I think we're going to play the KNC tournaments tees. The 4 of us all get it there about 240ish with average handicap around 10. Wish us luck. We're going to need it.

 

Good luck and I'd appreciate it if you did look at the Dinah Shore distances. It's a fun tournament to watch.