Let’s be real... sometimes the difference between winning and losing is luck

[Solidstrike]

For sure. You have to consider too every outcome of every shot leading up the back nine on Sunday. Lots of good luck and misfortune woven into that story.

[golfortennis]

Agree that luck and other things beyond your control can influence your outcome, but luck wasn't the reason Tiger didn't win yesterday.

 

I do think that final results and our images of players get altered at times due to luck and and things beyond their control. Take Jordan Spieth- great young player who seems ready to play most majors and has closed the deal on 3. If DJ makes a 12 footer on the 72nd at the 2015 US Open, Spieth would be a 2 time major winner (which is still good), but also have blown more than he has closed the deal on (remember, he made a double on the 70th or 71st hole). If Spieth doesn't get a lucky dunk off the flagstick on the 72nd at his first win, then he doesn't even get into the FEC playoffs that year (which might have altered the events he got into the next season)

 

Luck isn't going to turn a multiple major winner into a hack or a 10 HC golfer into a major winner, but the guys out on tour are so close that some good luck at the right time (or the performance of another player) can affect things somewhat significantly. If Tiger wins at Bridgestone, he can thank Russell Henley for missing the cut at the Open as but for that, Tiger would be sitting at home.(Same result if Kuchar, Spieth or Finau finish tied with Tiger at -5 instead of -4)

 

While luck may even out over 1,000s of rounds, for many players, there are 1-3 tournaments a year that make or break their year. Take the Barbasol for example...guy who wins gets a two year exemption while a guy a stroke or two back may or may not make the playoffs. Getting a bit of luck at the right time can influence a career.

 

A matter of millimeters is the difference between Hale Irwin, 2 time US Open champion/Mike Donald, US Open champion, and Irwin, 3-time US Open champion. Not to mention a 90foot putt for Irwin. If that isn't luck.....

[vanillafunk616]

Yes you need good bounces in golf to win any tournament. At the same time, Tiger had the lead on the back 9 of a major and missed multiple fairways with a 3 iron. If he does what he should do, he doesn't put himself in position to get a bad break. Winning score was -8, and Tiger never took it to -8.

[King_Slender]

 

Molinari is on fire and has been. This is his 3rd tournament win this year. He is a race horse in his prime. Hard work and no luck involved.

He straight up beat the field, hands down.

 

Congrats to him on his performance. My hat is off.

 

Agree - you can't do anything but tip your hat at a guy who went his final 37, on that course, without a bogey. It's like Schwartzel's win at the Masters - dude birdied the last 4 holes, what else can you say?

[MilkyButterCuts]

*Most of the time

[geesecougar2]

I seem to recall that in EA Sports Tiger Woods PGA Tour, no matter how strong I got my character, my Luck attribute would never eclipse Tiger's character.

[PumaAttack]

Nope.

 

The difference between winning and losing is the amount of shots you take.

 

[smashdn]

I think one of the worst shots TW hit was with that driving iron. I don't see a whole lot of folks running out to Golf Galaxy ready to game one of them bad boys.

[15th Club]

I think one of the worst shots TW hit was with that driving iron. I don't see a whole lot of folks running out to Golf Galaxy ready to game one of them bad boys.

 

Did Tiger use the GAPR on Sunday? I saw what looked like a lot of 3- and 4-irons off tees where he did not hit driver. Which may well have been a function of what was required in terms of distance and flight shape. I don't know. I kept looking for the black GAPR 2-iron and didn't see it. It's a distinctive club, with the black Tensei and the black head. Did I miss seeing him hit it, and hitting a bad drive with it on Sunday? What I recall from Saturday is that it worked rather well for him.

[smashdn]

He pulled a shot with it. Saturday and Sunday run together for me. It could have been either day. I recall the commentary from JMiller was he was wondering which 3I TW pulled. Suggested the graphite version would have been a good play at the moment but he had the set 3I in his hands. I recall TW hit a bad shot with the gapr and didn't see him use it any after that.

[redfirebird08]

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

[Fairways_and_Greens]

Read fooled by randomness. Will change your life !

 

I've recommended Fooled by Randomness to dozens of friends. I always tell them "it will change your view on life".

[Golffan67]

Molinari and TW both hit bad drives on 10 TWs shaft wrapped around the fesuce... Molinaris didn’t

 

Xander had three of the worst bunker lies I’ve ever seen... still almost forced a playoff

 

Back to tiger... he’s good enough to win a major. When he catches the breaks he will win.

Tiger shouldn't have hit it in the fescue, that way he wouldn't have to rely on luck.

Over the course of 72 holes luck pretty much evens out(most of the time). It is easy to see a guy get a bad break on the back nine on sunday and think he is unlucky, but if a guy gets the same bad break on thursday then everyone forgets it.

[seve1972]

Molinari and TW both hit bad drives on 10 TWs shaft wrapped around the fesuce... Molinaris didn’t

 

Xander had three of the worst bunker lies I’ve ever seen... still almost forced a playoff

 

Back to tiger... he’s good enough to win a major. When he catches the breaks he will win.

 

I’ll bet yer a liberal....

[seve1972]

Molinari and TW both hit bad drives on 10 TWs shaft wrapped around the fesuce... Molinaris didn’t

 

Xander had three of the worst bunker lies I’ve ever seen... still almost forced a playoff

 

Back to tiger... he’s good enough to win a major. When he catches the breaks he will win.

Tiger shouldn't have hit it in the fescue, that way he wouldn't have to rely on luck.

Over the course of 72 holes luck pretty much evens out(most of the time). It is easy to see a guy get a bad break on the back nine on sunday and think he is unlucky, but if a guy gets the same bad break on thursday then everyone forgets it.

 

I’ll bet your a rational person....

[SkiSchoolPro]

 

Over the course of 72 holes luck pretty much evens out(most of the time).

Any math to back that up? What do you consider "most of the time"? 51%, 68%, 90%, 95%, 99%? Have you read Fooled By Randomness?

 

If you flip a random coin 100 times and bet on heads every time, you will be up 10+ units or down 10+ units almost 32% of the time (as you would expected it to be within 45-55 68.2% of the time). For 280 flips, its 16+ units and for 25 flips its 5 units. To be able to back up your statement, you'll have to determine how many shots over 72 holes typically get affected by luck, what is the probability of good luck vs bad luck and what is the difference (in shots or fractions of shots) between good luck and bad luck. My guess without doing all the math is that the guy who plays the "best" over 72 holes on the PGA Tour doesn't always win.

[SilverBullets]

Woods inability to close yesterday wasn't down to a lack of luck. The signs are extremely good but some of the excuses being formed on his behalf are ludicrous.

 

Exactly. I mean I agree with the OP in that bounces/breaks/etc. are part of winning. And generally you can look back at the winners of almost every event and point to a couple of bounces or lies or whatever and find evidence of a break that shifted the tournament. Molinari had a few very fortunate bounces yesterday.

 

But one bounce/lie wasn't the difference yesterday. Yeah Francesco looked like he got a better lie than Tiger on what were basically the same tee shots on 11. Molinari executed his shot and Tiger completely misjudged the lie. Then Tiger dumps a flop shot on the very next swing. Follows that up by failing to get up and down for bogey.

 

The 11th hole ultimately was the pivotal moment in the tournament. One guy executed and the other blew up.

 

I believe Tiger ultimately lost yesterday because of his game plan. When he got to -7 and was within 1 of the lead, he should have gone into a conservative game plan. Especially once his swing was looking sketchy around the 7th or 8th hole. You could watch it unravel once he got within sniffing distance. At the rate everyone was backing up other than Him and Molinari, Tiger should have known -9 really wasn't in play anymore. Hold onto -7, get a birdie on the final par 5 and in all likelihood the win is yours. Instead, he continued to try and step on it and force birdies. If Tiger approaches the final 11 or so holes like he did Thursday and Friday, he's probably celebrating right now. Molinari played a very conservative round of golf yesterday. One of those, just don't make any big mistakes, make pars and watch everyone get too aggressive and lose this thing types of rounds. He executed it perfectly, made a couple of timely birdies at the end and that was all she wrote. Molinari was the only one who didn't get wrapped up in what everyone else was doing while trying to force birdies. He played his game, he grinded out pars, took the big number out of play and watched the stars blow up while trying to play hero golf.

[smashdn]

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

 

That was what I was thinking.

[Barfolomew]

I dont believe in luck.... Karma yes but not luck

[SilverBullets]

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

 

That was what I was thinking.

 

He hit it once on Sunday I believe and it was one of the best tee shots he hit all day

[smashdn]

Finding a decent lie in the hay versus up against a clump is luck. BUT you take all the luck out of it if you keep it in the short stuff. Sometimes you get lucky or unlucky but you can also make your own luck by putting yourself int he right position.

 

Statistically draining long putts is luck, getting that long putt to kick in distance is skill.

 

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

 

That was what I was thinking.

 

He hit it once on Sunday I believe and it was one of the best tee shots he hit all day

 

Wonder why he didn't go back to it? There were times he could have sued the extra distance from the tee.

[jwhite86]

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

 

That was what I was thinking.

 

He hit it once on Sunday I believe and it was one of the best tee shots he hit all day

 

Correct, I was excited to see it in his hands after how terrible he hit it on Saturday... was hoping for the same thing... but he hit a wonderful shot on Sunday with it

[Potatohead]

The horrible tee shot at the 18th on Saturday might have been the GAPR. Don't think he used it at all on Sunday.

 

That was what I was thinking.

 

I'm 90% sure he used it on 17 tee on Sunday. Left side of the fairway.

[WidespreadPanic]

The classic "that's the break that might win him this tournament". I once jarred it on a par 3 for an ace, but it somehow hit the back of the cup and bounced into the water. Double bogey. Golf.

[Cwebb]

The timing of this reminds me of when someone says "I don't want to make excuses"......and then proceeds in an explanation that is a full of excuses

[Darth Putter]

The only fairway I've hit in the last 36 holes was due to a tree deflection, but I digress...

 

Here's a collection of lucky bounces the PGA Tour made in 2013. (does not include majors so don't look for Couples at the 1992 Masters)

 

[Hack Daddy]

Tiger can win a major, but the difference between yesterday and vintage Tiger was that he didn't need luck. He was so dialed in that on Sunday's he would just go out there an grind out whatever was needed for the win and let other fall by the wayside who had to be aggressive to try and catch him. He won a lot of those tournaments on Friday and Saturday.

 

Tiger was hitting shots other guys on tour either couldn't imagine, or didn't have in the bag.

 

Most everyone on tour now grew up in the Tiger domination era, and were groomed to hit Tiger shots. The field is way... WAY more equalized than it was in Tigers curb-stomping days.

 

And I'm a Tiger fan, so don't @ me.

[iBanesto]

It is not luck, it is chance.

 

People complaining about bunker lies, a tip for you is to not hit in the bunker in the first place. It is a hazard to punish players.

 

Don't hit it in the rough, is also a good tip as well.

 

They all came, they all played and Molinari is the champion.

 

[imakaveli]

Can't wait to see some unpopular player like Poulter not getting it done on some Sunday and go fetch this thread talking about how unlucky he was :D

[Golffan67]

Molinari and TW both hit bad drives on 10 TWs shaft wrapped around the fesuce... Molinaris didn’t

 

Xander had three of the worst bunker lies I’ve ever seen... still almost forced a playoff

 

Back to tiger... he’s good enough to win a major. When he catches the breaks he will win.

Tiger shouldn't have hit it in the fescue, that way he wouldn't have to rely on luck.

Over the course of 72 holes luck pretty much evens out(most of the time). It is easy to see a guy get a bad break on the back nine on sunday and think he is unlucky, but if a guy gets the same bad break on thursday then everyone forgets it.

 

I’ll bet your a rational person....

Rational enough to know the difference between your and you're ...