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24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...


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12 minutes ago, Dr. Block said:

I could be good with that if they gave me Capone's old cell, and if I could randomly spout off Connery's best lines from, "The Rock" without getting a baton to the abdomen.

 

See if you can take your golf clubs with you.  If you can build a make-shift boat to escape the island I've heard that 56 and 60 degree wedges make great oars.

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4 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

See if you can take your golf clubs with you.  If you can build a make-shift boat to escape the island I've heard that 56 and 60 degree wedges make great oars.

Ha. While I hit golf balls into water, I myself, do not much like getting into any bodies of water where I become part of the food chain. I'd quietly do my year's worth of time and get, "Tyson prison jacked" on the free weights. Then, when I returned to the course (and my usual games with the usual suspects), I could have a reasonable excuse for my flaming-dumpster-fire of a golf swing. 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Block said:

Ha. While I hit golf balls into water, I myself, do not much like getting into any bodies of water where I become part of the food chain. I'd quietly do my year's worth of time and get, "Tyson prison jacked" on the free weights. Then, when I returned to the course (and my usual games with the usual suspects), I could have a reasonable excuse for my flaming-dumpster-fire of a golf swing. 

You could spend your time practicing 125 yard wedge shots so you don't get yourself in the same predicament again.

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57 minutes ago, Dr. Block said:

Ha. While I hit golf balls into water, I myself, do not much like getting into any bodies of water where I become part of the food chain. I'd quietly do my year's worth of time and get, "Tyson prison jacked" on the free weights. Then, when I returned to the course (and my usual games with the usual suspects), I could have a reasonable excuse for my flaming-dumpster-fire of a golf swing. 

 

Instead of the Birdman of Alcatraz you could become the Birdieman of Alcatraz.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birdman_of_Alcatraz_(film)

 

 

 

Edited by Double Mocha Man
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8 minutes ago, Double Mocha Man said:

 

Instead of the Birdman of Alcatraz you could be come the Birdieman of Alcatraz.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birdman_of_Alcatraz_(film)

 

 

 

Man, thank you. Mrs. Block and myself were just about ready to go on another classic cinema kick. This will be a great one to watch. I started the other night with one of my favorite Richard Burton films, "The Spy Who Came in from the Cold." Now I can move right into some great Burt Lancaster.  Much appreciated. 

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1 hour ago, Dr. Block said:

Man, thank you. Mrs. Block and myself were just about ready to go on another classic cinema kick. This will be a great one to watch. I started the other night with one of my favorite Richard Burton films, "The Spy Who Came in from the Cold." Now I can move right into some great Burt Lancaster.  Much appreciated. 

 

Didn't intend to direct you and Mrs. Block to that film but glad I did.  Do not overlook the other epic Burt Lancaster film, "From Here to Eternity".

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7 hours ago, alittleoverpar said:

IMO anyone who would agree to this might as well just book their reservation in jail.

 

It's like the lottery.  I don't ever buy a ticket but effectively have the same chance of winning as someone who does.

 

Anyone?

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On 9/21/2022 at 9:03 AM, dugue4 said:

I was thinking about this more yesterday and I know that amateur odds are 12500/1, but that is for a random distance.  I tried to look for odds by distance and have come up empty.  The only thing I have found is pro vs am odds or odds of multiple HIO odds, but nothing broken down by distance.

 

I know that the math was done earlier in the thread and it was a ~35% success rate given 3500 tries, but I would love to see the odds for specific distances.

 

TLDR - If you know HIO odds by distance, post them.

 

"Amateur odds."

 

As if there's such a thing.

 

The odds of a 22-capper versus the odds of a +3 are so different as to be absurd. They're both amateurs, though! 🤨

 

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11 hours ago, alittleoverpar said:

It's like the lottery.  I don't ever buy a ticket but effectively have the same chance of winning as someone who does.

Reminds me of the old guy who prayed fervently every night “Please God, let me win lottery” for years. One night he hears God’s voice from heaven “Meet me half way and buy a ticket.”

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On 9/27/2022 at 2:49 PM, Obee said:

 

The stupid part is the "prison" thing. How about: How much $$$ would you risk to win $10,000,000? Or even ONE Million.

I would risk a lot, and I am not wealthy.

 

Agree. In reality I suspect you would get very few takers in a real life experiment if prison were the downside. I did a remote tour in the military and I have seen people lose their minds simply living away from their families in nice living conditions and being totally free other than going home at will. A year is a long, long, long, time. A year in prison would probably seem like 5 in real life.

 

Like you, a much better exercise would be to put your own cash on the line. That way each person can tailor the bet based on their own asymmetric view on risk/reward with some adjustments to bet size and payout. 

 

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On 9/28/2022 at 11:36 AM, Obee said:

 

The other problem here is the time allotment. Does it have to be 24 consecutive hours? Or could it be one hour a day for 24 different days. That's a completely different proposition. My guess is that the average golf stops hitting their best golf shots after 200 to 300 shots in a given period. Thoughts?

 

This might be a bigger factor that would at least effect your routine. Even if you were constrained to a single 24-hr period it would surely still be wise to take significant breaks just to let your brain cool down. The golf swing can begin to feel very weird after hundreds of reps. 

 

I stood on the range recently where I was able to test this a bit. We're on mats for a short interval here and there was a flag out on the range at a distance to which I could hit a comfortable, controlled Gw. On the course I'd wager this would be about a 105-yd shot so it was similar to the idea here.

 

While I landed the majority of the balls near the pin, it was obvious that on occasion I'd begin to hit a few very poorly. Hitting off a mat made this even worse because it's easy to naturally start hitting the ball fat and sliding the club into the ball. 

 

I could see the volume of reps becoming a real challenge where a player "loses their swing" for periods. 

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22 hours ago, The Pearl said:

 

Agree. In reality I suspect you would get very few takers in a real life experiment if prison were the downside. I did a remote tour in the military and I have seen people lose their minds simply living away from their families in nice living conditions and being totally free other than going home at will. A year is a long, long, long, time. A year in prison would probably seem like 5 in real life.

 

Like you, a much better exercise would be to put your own cash on the line. That way each person can tailor the bet based on their own asymmetric view on risk/reward with some adjustments to bet size and payout. 

 

 

I think it goes without saying that this is a question for single people who don't have kids. 🙂

 

Married, maybe, but fathers certainly need not apply. 

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17 minutes ago, MelloYello said:

 

I think it goes without saying that this is a question for single people who don't have kids. 🙂

 

Married, maybe, but fathers certainly need not apply. 

 

Would give some guys the opportunity to get away from the wife for a year.  Might be an upside there for some.

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20 minutes ago, alittleoverpar said:

 

Would give some guys the opportunity to get away from the wife for a year.  Might be an upside there for some.

 

LOL, true, but if a year in a jail is an improvement on your marriage you might be in trouble. 🙂

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7 hours ago, CVP said:

Hi All, long time reader, first time poster

 

This is an interesting subject because you can kind of boil the question down to - how good to we think we are? It's been shown in a number of circumstances we think we are better than we actually are, for example on studies on driving more than 50% of people respond to the question are you a good driver with "yes", and just think of all those staff appraisals you've done where people think they are great when in fact you have to show them they are not as brilliant as they think they are. I'm sure us golfers are no different, we keep a score to tell us that we can be good and we all know we can have a complete blow up hole and can be bad too, just are we willing to admit it.

 

I have a range near my house that I use a lot when I can't get to the course in daylight and the range is fitted with Top Tracer. One of the games is nearest the pin and #17 at Kiawah Island Ocean course is there right at 126 yards. Now it's off mats, range balls, virtual simulation etc but a decent enough proxy for this experiment. So over a number of sessions totalling 24 hours I'm going to give this challenge a try and report back. I won't be doing it in one go, as firstly the range is not open 24/7 and also it would bankrupt me to hire a bay for 24 hours! So let's see if it is remotely possible for an average player to do this.

 

As a bit of background on me, I'm 53years old, based in London and currently play off 9.3. I played  a lot as a junior and then had a break of over 20 years after I went off to university and moved around for various jobs. Started playing about 5 years ago and joined my local club here and have really got back into the game. My game could generously be called streaky, I'm good off the tee, long irons pretty decent, wedges can use a good deal of work and putting is either decent or abysmal depending upon the day. Eliminating 3 putts and being better around the greens is what I'm currently working on. So I think whilst not WRX good, I'm reasonably representative of the golfing population to be a suitable crash test dummy.

 

Onto the results of session#1 a 2 hour session a couple of nights ago. Firstly, lots of strange looks from other  users at the range going, why is this guy hitting the same shot over and over again? Result-wise one hit the pin on the bounce and ended up 4 feet away and I had two shots just over a foot away. Lots on the green when in real life I'd have a decent chance at a birdie but none actually in the cup in 1. Also towards the end of 2 hours quite a few leaking right into the water.

 

Now for confession time...I'm not WRX strong 😞 126 yards for me is either a chippy 43 degree wedge which then runs out, or a full 48 degree wedge which just lands and stops. During the 2 hours I hit a mixture of the two shots but in general I think I was closer with the 48 degree. 

 

22 hours left in the experiment... 🙂

 

Chris

 

 

Hey Chris, fun idea. Let us know when your arms fall off.  I'll be following you; when are you at the range next?

 

Oh, and welcome to the posting side of this operation.

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, CVP said:

Hi All, long time reader, first time poster

 

This is an interesting subject because you can kind of boil the question down to - how good to we think we are? It's been shown in a number of circumstances we think we are better than we actually are, for example on studies on driving more than 50% of people respond to the question are you a good driver with "yes", and just think of all those staff appraisals you've done where people think they are great when in fact you have to show them they are not as brilliant as they think they are. I'm sure us golfers are no different, we keep a score to tell us that we can be good and we all know we can have a complete blow up hole and can be bad too, just are we willing to admit it.

 

I have a range near my house that I use a lot when I can't get to the course in daylight and the range is fitted with Top Tracer. One of the games is nearest the pin and #17 at Kiawah Island Ocean course is there right at 126 yards. Now it's off mats, range balls, virtual simulation etc but a decent enough proxy for this experiment. So over a number of sessions totalling 24 hours I'm going to give this challenge a try and report back. I won't be doing it in one go, as firstly the range is not open 24/7 and also it would bankrupt me to hire a bay for 24 hours! So let's see if it is remotely possible for an average player to do this.

 

As a bit of background on me, I'm 53years old, based in London and currently play off 9.3. I played  a lot as a junior and then had a break of over 20 years after I went off to university and moved around for various jobs. Started playing about 5 years ago and joined my local club here and have really got back into the game. My game could generously be called streaky, I'm good off the tee, long irons pretty decent, wedges can use a good deal of work and putting is either decent or abysmal depending upon the day. Eliminating 3 putts and being better around the greens is what I'm currently working on. So I think whilst not WRX good, I'm reasonably representative of the golfing population to be a suitable crash test dummy.

 

Onto the results of session#1 a 2 hour session a couple of nights ago. Firstly, lots of strange looks from other  users at the range going, why is this guy hitting the same shot over and over again? Result-wise one hit the pin on the bounce and ended up 4 feet away and I had two shots just over a foot away. Lots on the green when in real life I'd have a decent chance at a birdie but none actually in the cup in 1. Also towards the end of 2 hours quite a few leaking right into the water.

 

Now for confession time...I'm not WRX strong 😞 126 yards for me is either a chippy 43 degree wedge which then runs out, or a full 48 degree wedge which just lands and stops. During the 2 hours I hit a mixture of the two shots but in general I think I was closer with the 48 degree. 

 

22 hours left in the experiment... 🙂

 

Chris

 

This is an epic contribution to the forum.

 

Keep posting.

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If I didn't have a kid at home I would gladly do it. I know I'd be in jail for a year, but 10M is life changing $. I'd bring on the risk. 

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