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24 hours to hit a hole in one from 125 yards - $10 million if you do, but 1 year in jail if you don't...


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4 hours ago, AdamMH said:

125 yards is a perfect, bang-on pitching wedge for me, swung a little harder than normal.

I can't make that swing for 24 straight hours. No way! I'd be dead after about 300 balls. Lots of YouTube videos of DP guys taking 500 balls to hit an ace... guess how many of them did?

Maria Fassi and one other English guy did it... Andy Sullivan?? 

 

Odds for an Am are 1/12500 every shot. Let's say you sleep 8 hours and take 2 hours worth of breaks because you're an absolute machine. Using the person above reference of 1 shot every 10-11 second, you could theoretically make 5,000 swings. Let's then say you get really tired and half way through,your output goes down by 50%, so you only take around 3500 shots in 24 hours (still insane, but possible). 

 

If my maths are right: 

Chance of failure every shot is 12499/12500 = 99.992%, and with 3500 attempts --> .99992^3500 = .7557

 

Means 75% fail rate, or 25% chance of making it. 15% chance with 2000 shots.

 

Free s3x from Big Jimmy aside and any loss of job etc, it comes down to would you take something like a 1/8 to 1/4 chance for $10M vs jail. If we could assign a "negative" cash value to 1 year in prison, then it becomes quite an easy choice. Expected value vs whatever you make in a year, barring social and other rear-end related implications. If EV of the game is more than you make, then play the game. The hard part is assigning a negative value to jail. Best way in my opinion is, how much would you pay to not go to jail for a year? 

 

If you're a decent player, currently unemployed and it's a minimum security prison, you should play the game.... Unless you think not going to jail for a year is worth more than like $40 million. If you suck, make a lot of money and would end up in Gitmo.... Hard pass. 

 

Oh and using the same math - if it's the right way to do it - 500 balls with a pro using 1/2500 odds, they've got about an 18% chance. So 1 in 5 should do it given enough pro's try. 

 

 

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Out of the thousands of balls I've hit at the 110 yard practice green at my course with only one hole in one to speak of, that's a hard pass from me. 

And as mentioned above... if the shanks come, which I've battled off and on for over a year now, it's game over.

PLUS... my back can only take hitting about 100 balls every few days so it's not like I could sit there and swing away for a day straight.

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22 minutes ago, Z1ggy16 said:

Maria Fassi and one other English guy did it... Andy Sullivan?? 

 

Odds for an Am are 1/12500 every shot. Let's say you sleep 8 hours and take 2 hours worth of breaks because you're an absolute machine. Using the person above reference of 1 shot every 10-11 second, you could theoretically make 5,000 swings. Let's then say you get really tired and half way through,your output goes down by 50%, so you only take around 3500 shots in 24 hours (still insane, but possible). 

 

If my maths are right: 

Chance of failure every shot is 12499/12500 = 99.992%, and with 3500 attempts --> .99992^3500 = .7557

 

Means 75% fail rate, or 25% chance of making it. 15% chance with 2000 shots.

 

Free s3x from Big Jimmy aside and any loss of job etc, it comes down to would you take something like a 1/8 to 1/4 chance for $10M vs jail. If we could assign a "negative" cash value to 1 year in prison, then it becomes quite an easy choice. Expected value vs whatever you make in a year, barring social and other rear-end related implications. If EV of the game is more than you make, then play the game. The hard part is assigning a negative value to jail. Best way in my opinion is, how much would you pay to not go to jail for a year? 

 

If you're a decent player, currently unemployed and it's a minimum security prison, you should play the game.... Unless you think not going to jail for a year is worth more than like $40 million. If you suck, make a lot of money and would end up in Gitmo.... Hard pass. 

 

Oh and using the same math - if it's the right way to do it - 500 balls with a pro using 1/2500 odds, they've got about an 18% chance. So 1 in 5 should do it given enough pro's try. 

 

 

Good God man, it's friday...turn your brain off already.

 

Oh, and thanks foe the info...I'd play.

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3 hours ago, MelloYello said:

I don't see a downside here. 

 

 

If I made a Hole-in-One...

 

-- Upgrade my current address & owe $0 on the mortgage

-- Upgrade my current vehicle & owe $0

-- Never have to question the value of my membership dues ever again.

-- Early retirement (possibly immediate)

-- Huge upgrade in quality of life

-- Increased focus on health

-- Daily routine of leisure stuff: golf, exercise, etc. 

 

If I were to miss...

 

-- Spend 1 year not golfing (very do-able)

-- Spend 1 year dieting / exercising (definitely a good thing)

-- Spend 1 year studying for professional S.E. certification exam (a net gain on my resume)

-- Spend 1 year not worrying about actual work (pretty good)

-- Emerge healthier, more well-read

-- Emerge with a better resume on the hunt for a job (instant pay raise!)

 

 

So whether I make the hole-in-one or not, both alternatives could lead to great outcomes.


Love the thought process here…got me thinking!  

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8 minutes ago, getitdaily said:

Good God man, it's friday...turn your brain off already.

 

Oh, and thanks foe the info...I'd play.

Engineer.

 

It doesn't turn off 

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13 minutes ago, getitdaily said:

Lol. All good. Stats combined with time value of money and risk valuation. Reminded me of MBA school.

Just got my MBA 🤣

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Can't believe we haven't seen this one posted in the thread yet...

 

 

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OMG - no brainer - YES!!!  Try!!   Host it at my club - then I can invite everyone out to watch as I try.  If you make it - you'll feel awesome and $10 million would be a heck of a lot of fun to play around with...make christmas come early for all my friends and family and charities.   That would be cool - love a chance to do that.   I love my chances to get into a rhythm with a low running 6 iron....I can probably get out 1000-1500 shots one after another....1/2 swings - carry about 100 with 25-40 yard rollout....   Probably won't make it - but I'll get excited if I do!

 

I work for myself so I don't have to worry about that - my boss will say ok.   And "jail" per se - won't ruin you.  It's not "prison".  Jail is less formal than a prison - and it's for drunks and rowdies - not necessarily considered a danger or threat to society.  No brainer.  Easy.   You're not getting gang raped in the shower - most prisons don't even have a shower....so you'd probably have to use the same facilities as the local cops.  Probably could design your own schedule.  Stay for a year?  Get in shape and clean out the cobwebs and reduce my stress and anxiety.   

 

In truth -I'd take the bet.   When I die I expect that I'l regret not taking a bet....this type of opportunity doesn't come at all, if ever.   So why not.   Lucky to be able to take it.  That's why you live...it's not life threatening - it's potentially life (others who you can help) enhancing...and all I have to do is try? doing something that I like?   I'm in!

 

 

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Jail or prison?

Jail is a no brainer.

Prison I'd pass. 

 

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2 hours ago, betarhoalphadelta said:

Can't believe we haven't seen this one posted in the thread yet...

 

 


1,736 shots!  Dude was going to lose his marbles.  Those sh**ks showed up early, too.  I’m def out!

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6 hours ago, ChipDriver said:

And "jail" per se - won't ruin you.  It's not "prison".  Jail is less formal than a prison - and it's for drunks and rowdies - not necessarily considered a danger or threat to society.  No brainer.  Easy.

Actually jail in the USA can be as you say a temp holding for lesser offenses, but it also means county jail where you can be held for up to 1 year. In SoCal county jails are notorious ratholes that house all kinds of miscreants including those who committed violent felonies who were able to get a year in county in a plea agreement. Hard pass for me. Plus county jail really stinks and is noisy. I couldn't do a week in one and even less in state prison. In my career I've had to visit both prison and county many times and I would never put myself in a position where i could end up there. 

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9 hours ago, Z1ggy16 said:

Maria Fassi and one other English guy did it... Andy Sullivan?? 

 

Odds for an Am are 1/12500 every shot. Let's say you sleep 8 hours and take 2 hours worth of breaks because you're an absolute machine. Using the person above reference of 1 shot every 10-11 second, you could theoretically make 5,000 swings. Let's then say you get really tired and half way through,your output goes down by 50%, so you only take around 3500 shots in 24 hours (still insane, but possible). 

 

If my maths are right: 

Chance of failure every shot is 12499/12500 = 99.992%, and with 3500 attempts --> .99992^3500 = .7557

 

Means 75% fail rate, or 25% chance of making it. 15% chance with 2000 shots.

 

Free s3x from Big Jimmy aside and any loss of job etc, it comes down to would you take something like a 1/8 to 1/4 chance for $10M vs jail. If we could assign a "negative" cash value to 1 year in prison, then it becomes quite an easy choice. Expected value vs whatever you make in a year, barring social and other rear-end related implications. If EV of the game is more than you make, then play the game. The hard part is assigning a negative value to jail. Best way in my opinion is, how much would you pay to not go to jail for a year? 

 

If you're a decent player, currently unemployed and it's a minimum security prison, you should play the game.... Unless you think not going to jail for a year is worth more than like $40 million. If you suck, make a lot of money and would end up in Gitmo.... Hard pass. 

 

Oh and using the same math - if it's the right way to do it - 500 balls with a pro using 1/2500 odds, they've got about an 18% chance. So 1 in 5 should do it given enough pro's try. 

 

 

 

Engineer.jpg

 

I worked for a multi discipline engineering firm for 15 years. I find the above to be savagely accurate!.🤣

Edited by grm24
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I’d do it no problem.  
 

I’m a King in prison…where do you think I got my gang name “Wonder-Bread”.

 

Edited by Wonder Bread
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8 hours ago, RSinSG said:

Actually jail in the USA can be as you say a temp holding for lesser offenses, but it also means county jail where you can be held for up to 1 year. In SoCal county jails are notorious ratholes that house all kinds of miscreants including those who committed violent felonies who were able to get a year in county in a plea agreement. Hard pass for me. Plus county jail really stinks and is noisy. I couldn't do a week in one and even less in state prison. In my career I've had to visit both prison and county many times and I would never put myself in a position where i could end up there. 

 

LOL -  so you're a lawyer or in law school?  Good for you.  I'm a lawyer and by now all my friends run the state and county where I live.  I was a litigator.  Now a CEO and run/invest/sell businesses....much more risky than the bet posed here.

 

For you law-weenie types (like me) - why do you think you'd be placed in gen-pop or average jail?   You wouldn't - unless you have a dope for a lawyer.  "Losing a bet" is not a crime.   You'd get what amounts to fake jail.   

 

Honestly - take the bet - why?  B/c the prison system is so overcrowded - they won't allow you to take up space.  They'd give you home-detention at worst.   And if you actually had to stay in jail - you could probably sit in the jail in the daytime - then go home for dinner and sleep b/c the county doesn't want the financial burden of housing you simply b/c you lost a bet for which there is no legal punishment.

 

🙂 

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2 hours ago, ChipDriver said:

LOL -  so you're a lawyer or in law school?  Good for you.

Hahaha. No, I’m definitely not a lawyer. My son is a county prosecutor but he’s actually one of the few attorneys whose company I can abide.

 

No, my experience in jails and prisons comes fro a 30 year LEO career. When I was a detective I had to interview inmates numerous times in both venues and like I said I would never put myself in a situation that had the slightest possibility of making me a resident.

 

And congrats on adding a lot of qualifiers to the OP like home detention. I think the OP’s premise was - win $10M or go to jail for a year, meaning you will be in custody for a year- freedom and rights gone. Adding any other variables changes the OP, but you knew that.

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I’m not sure many of you have spent any time in the clink….a year in jail would be so sh***y I cant even imagine.


Those last few hours when you’re dead tired and all you can think about is giving up everything you have in life for a year…

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